Which team is in most trouble age wise - 2018 edition

[Jeremias]

We'll be fine, but Murphy and Simpson will be tough to replace given how good they've been over the journey.

Thomas, Rowe and Silvagni won't be difficult to cover. Most Carlton fans would agree none are in our best side in 2018.

 

[TedDougChris]

I don't think his manager is the most reliable source

Yep, Gary is very happy here on the Gold Coast and would like a very long, very expensive multi year contract.

Of course he will stay, you can trust Gary....

 

[BrutThough]

Ive always thought Saints would be better without Gilbert

If you accept that he will do something stupid once a game, he is actually such an important player for us and is probably the most versatile player going round. He has been used in every position on the ground and does a good job in each role - key back, running back, wing, centre square mid, ruck, key forward and has even tagged in his career. We are usually a better team when he is playing, as he is such a selfless player and doesn't second guess himself.

It is scary though that he is now our oldest player.

 

[RUNVS]

Side note, I suddenly feel really old now that Joel Selwood is reaching an age where retirement is even in the discussion.

 

[Shazza_]

Geelong

They’ve been topping up to win a flag for years now. Hasn’t and won’t work

They have a very poor list outside of their 2 stars. I reckon they should have started to rebuild from the ground up like we did in 2010 a couple of years ago instead of topping up every year.

Their fall won’t be pretty and it’s quite obvious that it’s coming. They might have one more top 4 and bomb out finish left in em though.

 

[Power Raid]

Port's position won't change much based on the list

Westhoff is durable and likely to go on for years at the current output. In fact a reduction in endurance may see Westhoff holding down a much needed 3rd tall KPB. As out defence is full of short people (jonas and clurey are small by today's standards).

Thomas is new and likely to see out most of his career in the 2s, with cameos for power.

Ryder is our biggest concern as any loss of leap means he can no longer play ruck. He will then have to compete for a KPB, KPF or replace Westhoff on the wing. We better hope our developing rucks come along during 2018 in preparation for the number one gig.

Gray will be a huge loss if he slows down. His creativity up forward and through the middle is so important.

Boak has been playing like a 33 year old for three years now. I'm actually hoping he finds form in 2018.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Geelong

They’ve been topping up to win a flag for years now. Hasn’t and won’t work

They have a very poor list outside of their 2 stars. I reckon they should have started to rebuild from the ground up like we did in 2010 a couple of years ago instead of topping up every year.

Their fall won’t be pretty and it’s quite obvious that it’s coming. They might have one more top 4 and bomb out finish left in em though.

You dont have to bottom out to be successful its how you manage your list over a period of time and make shrewd decisions at the draft table. In geelongs case they have been kissed on the you know what 2 times over with ablett and dangerfield wanting to play there while both can significantly contribute to the team's fortunes. The ablett factor alone will drive the club one would think and if it gets them a flag and the drop off comes shortly after i actually think they wouldnt care because they have been up for longer than anyone else in the league and would have won 4 flags.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Port's position won't change much based on the list

Westhoff is durable and likely to go on for years at the current output. In fact a reduction in endurance may see Westhoff holding down a much needed 3rd tall KPB. As out defence is full of short people (jonas and clurey are small by today's standards).

Thomas is new and likely to see out most of his career in the 2s, with cameos for power.

Ryder is our biggest concern as any loss of leap means he can no longer play ruck. He will then have to compete for a KPB, KPF or replace Westhoff on the wing. We better hope our developing rucks come along during 2018 in preparation for the number one gig.

Gray will be a huge loss if he slows down. His creativity up forward and through the middle is so important.

Boak has been playing like a 33 year old for three years now. I'm actually hoping he finds form in 2018.

Id argue ryder needs to watch his weight a little bit, always seem a bit heavy when i watch him on tv. May have been an instruction to add size before coming to port or the year out of the game messed with his routine not sure. I actually think he would be even better if he lost a bit of weight because its affecting his ability to be more versatile. Just an observation.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Crows team without the 5 older players:
Gibson - not best 22.
Betts - Fogerty
Douglas - Atkins
Jacobs - O'Brien
Mackay - not best 22

B: Brown, Talia, Doedee
HB: Smith, Hartigan, Laird
C: Gibbs, M Crouch, Knight
HF: Lynch, Walker, Gallucci
F: Hampton, McGovern, Jenkins
R: O'Brien, Sloane, B Crouch
I: Kelly, Greenwood, Atkins, Fogerty

Betts & Jacobs are the 2 which will be most missed... so hopefully have a few years left in then yet.

 

[Pessimistic]

I do this thread every year but I think it usually becomes an interesting discussion. Only problem is this year I suspect the Swans are going to be talked about a lot more based on where we are on the list I made.

Here is the 2017 version https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/which-team-is-in-most-trouble-age-wise-2017-edition.1155491/

So basically, I listed every player on your list that is as of this moment over the age of 29. Now some would say 29 is too young for this list, but I don't think so as 29 is about the minimum age where some players begin to decline in on field performance. Of course then you have guys like Shaun Burgoyne who seems to defy age, but you also have players like Nick Smith, who is only 29 and does not seem to be the player he once was.

Either way though by the time a player is 29 clubs should have at the very least started making preparations for that player no longer being at the club.

So in 2018, which lists do you think are in the most trouble when it comes to the age of their players, and possibly having players who will be able to replace them when they are gone, or worse, not having players in the pipeline who can replace them.

So here it the list

Hawthorn (7)
(Burgoyne 35.2, Roughead 30.11, Puopolo 30.1, Birchall 29.11, Henderson 29.3, Frawley 29.3, Smith 29.0)

Sydney (7)
(McVeigh 32.8, Grundy 31.7, Franklin 30.11, Tippett 30.7, Jack 30.6, Smith 29.6, Kennedy 29.6)

Collingwood (6)
(Wells 32.11, Dunn 30.7, Goldsack 30.7, Pendlebury 29.11, Varcoe 29.8, Mayne 29.2)

Fremantle (6)
(Sandilands 35.0, Johnson 33.2, Mundy 32.5, Pearce 31.8, Ballantyne 30.5, Spurr 30.5)

Adelaide (5)
(Gibson 31.7, Betts 31.1, Douglas 30.10, Jacobs 29.8, MacKay 29.5)

Carlton (5)
(Simpson 33.7, Thomas 30.6, Murphy 30.5, A.Silvagni 30.3, Rowe 30.1)

Geelong (5)
(Ablett Jnr 33.7, Taylor 31.6, Selwood 29.7, Hawkins 29.5, Crameri 29.4)

Gold Coast (5)
(Rischitelli 31.11, Rosa 31.1, Barlow 30.0, Harbrow 29.5, Hanley 29.1)

Port Adelaide (5)
(Westhoff 31.3, Thomas 29.10, Ryder 29.9, Gray 29.9, Boak 29.5)

Richmond (5)
(Hampson 29.9, Grigg 29.8, Houli 29.7, Edwards 29.2, Riewoldt 29.2)

Essendon (4)
(Goddard 32.7, Baguley 30.7, Leuenberger 29.9, Hooker 29.2)

GWS (4)
(Shaw 32.1, Griffen 31.5, Deledio 30.8, Mohr 29.2)

Melbourne (4)
(Vince 32.3, Lewis 31.8, Pedersen 30.9, Jones 29.11)

North Melbourne (4)
(Waite 34.11, Thompson 31.7, Higgins 29.10, Goldstein 29.6)

St Kilda (4)
(Gilbert 31.4, Armitage 29.6, Geary 29.6, Brown 29.0)

Western Bulldogs (4)
(Morris 35.0, Picken 31.5, Dickson 30.3, Suckling 29.5)

West Coast (4)
(Lecras 31.4, Kennedy 30.4, Hrun 30.4, MacKenzie 29.7)

Brisbane (2)
(Hodge 33.6, Martin 31.1)

If you think age is inherently bad then Sydney have buddy and tipp on large contracts for is it five more years in. Buddy’s case.

Media hysteria side, he hasn’t got anywhere near his effectiveness while at Hawthorn

 

[Pessimistic]

Puopolo' s replacement got traded in last year. Impey will play across half back in the short term but will shift forward when the opportunity arises. There's also a guy waiting in the wings who hawks officials and fans are very bullish about ollie hanrahan. Birchall will be hard to fully replace but burton did a great job last year. Not all doom and gloom.

Smith was mentioned, when you see him close up, he looks 22-25

burgers has been one of the most reliable players in the entire league recently

 

[RUNVS]

If you think age is inherently bad then Sydney have buddy and tipp on large contracts for is it five more years in. Buddy’s case.

Media hysteria side, he hasn’t got anywhere near his effectiveness while at Hawthorn

Not sure I would go that far. Buddy wins one more Coleman and he would have more Coleman's at the Swans than he did at the Hawks.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

In terms of quality to replace (but not depth to cover)

1. Sydney
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Collingwood
5. North Melbourne
6. West Coast
7.Port Adelaide
8. Fremantle
9. Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. Richmond
12. Carlton
13. Melbourne
14. GWS
15. Western Bulldogs
16. St Kilda
17. Golld Coast
18. Brisbane

 

[Rance2Mewtwo]

Geelong

They’ve been topping up to win a flag for years now. Hasn’t and won’t work

They have a very poor list outside of their 2 stars. I reckon they should have started to rebuild from the ground up like we did in 2010 a couple of years ago instead of topping up every year.

Their fall won’t be pretty and it’s quite obvious that it’s coming. They might have one more top 4 and bomb out finish left in em though.

Richmond’s superstars were all under 22 when we started our rebuild, and we had the future best player in the comp as an 18 year old.

Geelong don’t have that luxury.

If Geelong did things the Richmond way and committed to a proper 8-year rebuild, then Selwood and Danger would’ve retired by then and they’d be worse off. They had no choice but to go for broke now.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Hawthorn will vie with Geelong for the title of oldest team. However while Geelong looks likely to be a contender again, I'm not confident about the Hawks in 2018. Hawthorn for me.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Not sure I would go that far. Buddy wins one more Coleman and he would have more Coleman's at the Swans than he did at the Hawks.

He also has alot less competition in your forward line, he won colemans with us when we had a dynamic forward line with multiple options. Its buddy or bust with yours therefore he gets used all the time. Thats what the poster means by his effectiveness he might have kicked around the same amount of goals on average for both clubs but his impact at his peak was better at hawthorn.

 

[RUNVS]

He also has alot less competition in your forward line, he won colemans with us when we had a dynamic forward line with multiple options. Its buddy or bust with yours therefore he gets used all the time. Thats what the poster means by his effectiveness he might have kicked around the same amount of goals on average for both clubs but his impact at his peak was better at hawthorn.

Not really what the thread is about but I will quickly say that not having as many options in the forward line can be a bad thing for Buddy as it means more defenders are focused on him, though I am not entirely sure how true it is as the Swans forward line isn't too bad, especially with the addition of Papley. Buddy and Heeney formed a pretty good partnership a few years ago as well.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Not really what the thread is about but I will quickly say that not having as many options in the forward line can be a bad thing for Buddy as it means more defenders are focused on him, though I am not entirely sure how true it is as the Swans forward line isn't too bad, especially with the addition of Papley. Buddy and Heeney formed a pretty good partnership a few years ago as well.

Its not relevant to the thread you brought up the comparison just thought i would add to it. Your not seriously comparing the 2013 hawks forward line for eg to buddy, reid, sinclair/tippett and papley?, he didnt even win the coleman that year either yet his contribution was equal to anything he has done in sydney. Its just how it is. Doesnt mean things wont change however you guys still have time with him near his best.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

These threads are always the same. I don’t know why the OP bothers when being 29 and over doesn’t always mean a great deal.

List age is so overplayed on Bigfooty and what continually gets underplayed is each clubs awareness of where their plyers are at and also the opportunity for clubs to change their list as they please at the end of each year.

Looking at a list of blokes over 29 and saying “that list is in trouble” is nonsensical, when clubs can change this so easily if they so desire.

Having said all that...

Swans have:
Their best forward(the games best)
Their best tall defender
Their best midfielder
Their best small defender

...all nearing retirement.

They’d want to have some good replacements at the ready.

 

[donbooger]

Geelong

They’ve been topping up to win a flag for years now. Hasn’t and won’t work

They have a very poor list outside of their 2 stars. I reckon they should have started to rebuild from the ground up like we did in 2010 a couple of years ago instead of topping up every year.

Their fall won’t be pretty and it’s quite obvious that it’s coming. They might have one more top 4 and bomb out finish left in em though.

You didn't choose to rebuild. Your team was just rubbish.

Nobody rebuilds after playing in prelims.

So be it if we end up being close but not good enough, you don't pull the pin from where we are or ever were over the last few years.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[RUNVS]

These threads are always the same. I don’t know why the OP bothers when being 29 and over doesn’t always mean a great deal.

Well I worked it out earlier in the thread and found out that half of all 29-year-olds in the competition right now will not be in the competition within 2 years so that is quite relevant.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Well I worked it out earlier in the thread and found out that half of all 29-year-olds in the competition right now will not be in the competition within 2 years so that is quite relevant.

And how does that correlate to “trouble”?

 

[citizen-erased]

For all the talk of Sydney, they have the depth to replace their ageing mids and backs.
Grundy, McVeigh, JPK, Jack, Smith.
The likes of Jones, Lloyd, Allir, Melican, etc. will cover them.

the tall forwards may present an issue.
Though Sinclair is an option to play FF and Buddy doesn't look like slowing down anytime soon.

Geelong could feasibly lose all of Hawkins, Selwood, Ablett and Taylor in the next year or two.
I don't know who replaces them, but knowing the cats, they'll land free agents or trades easily enough. Cue Tom Lynch to the Cats for 2019 for nothing.

From Essendon, we lose 3 current best 22 players with a depth of replacements for 2 of them (Bags/Goddard)
Hooker should have another 2-3 seasons to go minimum, so in that time we need to find another tall forward if we want to keep our current forward line format.

Funnily enough, for me it's one of the younger teams in the comp with Carlton.
Depending how long Murphy can go on for, they lose some top end talent in Simpson and Murphy whilst the list is still very young. On top of that, they just traded Gibbs out too. And Rowe is quite a stabilising player for them at FB. Very no frills, but a senior defender (2 if you count Simpson) to help direct the kids in the hardest positions on the ground are worth their weight in gold.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the Blues stop investing in kids and look to top up some experience.
A move for Sloane next year, for example, could be the making of their list.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Geelong

They’ve been topping up to win a flag for years now. Hasn’t and won’t work

They have a very poor list outside of their 2 stars. I reckon they should have started to rebuild from the ground up like we did in 2010 a couple of years ago instead of topping up every year.

Their fall won’t be pretty and it’s quite obvious that it’s coming. They might have one more top 4 and bomb out finish left in em though.

I hope to Christ almighty that the GFC don't emulate anything Richmond have ever done. How many rebuilds failed before this supposed 2010 one? How many since?

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Richmond’s superstars were all under 22 when we started our rebuild, and we had the future best player in the comp as an 18 year old.

Geelong don’t have that luxury.

Richmond didn't have that luxury either. None of your 'superstars' were superstars, and Martin had a bit of potential.

Not sure you're qualified to predict how Geelong's 18 year old players careers will turn out.