Which team is in the most trouble replacing its aging players? - 2019 edition

Which team is in the most trouble replacing its aging players?

  • Adelaide

    Votes: 44 8.9%

  • Brisbane

    Votes: 1 0.2%

  • Carlton

    Votes: 20 4.1%

  • Collingwood

    Votes: 14 2.8%

  • Essendon

    Votes: 7 1.4%

  • Fremantle

    Votes: 12 2.4%

  • Geelong

    Votes: 222 45.1%

  • Gold Coast

    Votes: 4 0.8%

  • GWS

    Votes: 1 0.2%

  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 187 38.0%

  • Melbourne

    Votes: 3 0.6%

  • North Melbourne

    Votes: 17 3.5%

  • Port Adelaide

    Votes: 38 7.7%

  • Richmond

    Votes: 16 3.3%

  • St Kilda

    Votes: 4 0.8%

  • Sydney

    Votes: 107 21.7%

  • West Coast

    Votes: 19 3.9%

  • Western Bulldogs

    Votes: 4 0.8%
  • Total voters
    492

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RUNVS

RUNVS

TheBrownDog
Veteran 10k Posts 30k Posts
Feb 28, 2007
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Now in previous years I have done a separate thread on a teams older players and younger players

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/which-team-is-in-most-trouble-age-wise-2018-edition.1184604/
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/who-has-the-best-youth-2018-edition.1183020/

but I am changing that up this year as I think it would be better to combine them, and compare the older players of a club directly with their younger players, and see who might be retiring soon and who they may have to replace them.

So a few rules on why I am picking certain players and why I am not picking others.

The cut off date is going to be the 1st of January 2019, so I am going to assume, age-wise, that it is the 1st of January 2019.

Now, for the older players if they are going to be 29 or older on the 1.1.19 then they will make the list as 29 is about the age where players can start slowing down.

For the younger players there are two criteria

- Have to be under 23 at the 1.1.19
- Have to of played at least 5 games

I include the last criterium because otherwise I am including rookies and new draft picks that ultimately no one knows if they will succeed or not. Having played at least 5 games there is at least a little body of work to discuss.

The basic pemise is which teams are going to have the most trouble replacing their older players with their younger players? Which teams just don't have the youth coming through to replace the players that will be retiring in the next few years. It isn't just about numbers either, as one team might have fairly average older players who are easier to replace, but another team might have huge numbers of younger players but none of them are that good.

I also apologise in advance if I got any of the below information wrong as it is very possible I have missed a few things. I almost missed Rischitelli for instance as he got picked up in the rookie draft but footywire has spelt his name wrong in the re-rookie process so his age and stats did not come up.

I have given everyone 3 choices in the poll, just to get more of a range of opinions.

So to get started

Hawthorn (10)
Burgoyne 36.2, Roughead 31.11, Puopolo 32.0, Birchall 30.11, Henderson 30.3, Frawley 30.3, Mohr 30.2, Smith 30.0, Stratton, 29.9, McEvoy 29.4
Worpel 19.11, Morrison 20.1, Nash 20.5, Cousins 20.8, Glass 21.3, Hardwick 21.10, Miles 22.1, Pittonet 22.6

Collingwood (8)
Wells 33.10, Dunn 31.7, Goldsack 31.7, Pendlebury 30.11, Varco 30.8, Mayne 30.1, Greenwood, 29.10, Reid 29.8
Appleby 19.11, Stephenson 19.11, Daicos 20.1, Brown 20.8, Sier 21.1, Murray 21.3, Crocker 21.10, Maynard 22.3, Phillips 22.7, De Goey 22.9, Moore 22.11

Sydney (8)
McVeigh 33.8, Grundy 32.6, Franklin 31.11, Tippett 31.7, Jack 31.6, Smith 30.6, Kennedy 30.6, Sinclair 29.3
McCartin 19.0, Hayward 20.2, Florent 20.5, Ronke 21.0, Clarke 21.6, Dawson 21.8, Mills 21.8, Melican 22.1, Papley 22.5, Heeney 22.7, Rose 22.8

Adelaide (7)
Betts 32.1, Douglas 31.10, Jacobs 30.8, MacKay 30.5, Jenkins 29.10, Gibbs 29.9, Otton 29.7
Fogarty 19.3, Murphy 20.0, Poholke 20.5, Gallucci 20.7, Milera 21.3, Doedee 21.10

Carlton (6)
Simpson 34.7, Thomas 31.6, Murphy 31.4, Lobbe 29.10, Kruezer 29.7, Curnow 29.1
Dow 19.2, O'Brien 19.3, Williamson 20.0, Fisher 20.6, Macreadie 20.8, Polson 20.9, Petrevski-Seton 20.10, McKay 21.0, Silvagni 21.0, Weitering 21.1, Kennedy 21.8, Cunningham 21.9, Curnow 21.10, Marchbank 22.0, Goddard 22.4, Pickett 22.4, Garlett 22.7

Geelong (6)
Ablett Jnr 34.7, Taylor 32.6, Selwood 30.7, Hawkins 30.5, Tuohy 29.0, Henderson 29.0
Fogarty 19.8, Jones 20.3, Henry 20.4, Ratugolea 20.5, Guthrie 20.6, Simpson 20.6, Parfitt 20.8, Narkle 21.0, Parsons 21.8, O'Conner 21.11, Cockatoo 22.2, Cunico 22.7, Buzza 22.9

GWS (5)
Shaw 33.1, Mumford 32.5, Deledio 31.8, Simpson 29.10, Reid 29.1
Taylor 19.7, Daniels 19.9, Perryman 20.0, Taranto 20.11, Hopper 21.10, Himmelberg 22.7, Finlayson 22.10

Richmond (5)
Grigg 30.8, Houli 30.7, Edwards 30.2, Riewoldt, 30.2, Rance, 29.2
Higgins 19.9, Bolton 20.0, Graham 20.10, Rioli 21.8, Menadue 22.3, Moore, 22.3, Castagna 22.5, Butler 22.6, Soldo 22.8, Short 22.11

West Coast (5)
Kennedy 31.4, Hurn 31.3, Schofield 29.11, Masten 29.7, Jetta 29.7
Venables 20.1, Waterman 20.7, Cole 21.7, Duggan 22.0, Ryan 22.2, Nelson 22.9

Western Bulldogs (5)
Morris 36.0, Pickin 32.5, Dickson 31.3, Suckling 30.5, Wood 29.3
Naughton 19.1, Richards 19.5, Young 20.0, Lipinski 20.5, Greene 21.0, Williams 21.2, Schache 21.4, English 21.4, Dunkley 21.11, Cordy 22.2, Smith 22.3, Dale 22.5, Daniel 22.5, Gowers 22.6, Webb 22.9, McLean 22.11

Brisbane (4)
Hodge 34.6, Martin 32.1, Zorko 29.10, Robinson 29.6
Raynar 19.2, Bailey 19.3, Witherden 20.3, Allison 20.8, McLuggage 20.9, Berry 20.10, Hipwood 21.3, Cox 21.4, Keays 21.10, Mathieson 21.11, Andrews 22.0

Essendon (4)
Baguley 31.7, Hooker 30.2, Myers 29.6, Bellchambers 29.5
Begley 20.5, McGrath 20.6, Redman 21.4, Guelfi 21.4, Francis 21.4, Parish 21.5, Lanford 22.1, Laverde 22.8, McKenna 22.9, Long 22.10

North Melbourne (4)
Thompson 32.7, Higgins 30.9, Goldstein 30.5, Tarrant 29.8
Davies-Uniacke 19.6, Simpkin 20.9, Ahern 22.4, Durdin 22.6, Vickers-Willis 22.9

Port Adelaide (4)
Westhoff 32.2, Ryder 30.9. Gray 30.9, Boak 30.5
Farrell 19.9, Marshall 20.2, Powell-Pepper 20.11, Johnson 21.2, Houston 21.6, Bonner 21.9, Burton 21.10, Howard 22.9

Fremantle (3)
Sandilands 36.0, Mundy 33.5, Ballantyne 31.5
Brayshaw 19.1, Cerra 19.2, Crowden 19.8, Giro 19.9, Cox 20.4, Carcy 20.5, Duman 20.8, Logue 20.8, Banfield 20.10, Tucker 20,11, Nyhuis 22.3, Blakey 22.9, Ryan 22.10, Langdon 22.11

Gold Coast (3)
Rischitelli 32.0, Harbrow 30.5, Hanley 30.1
Heron 19.0, Powell 19.4, Crossley 19.4, Ballard 19.5, Brodie 20.4, Ainsworth 20.10, Bowes 20.11, Macpherson 21.2, Ah Chee 21.2, Fiorini 21.4, Joyce 21.4, Schoenfield 21.5, Ellis 22.2, Wright 22.3, Weller 22.10, Miller 22.10

Melbourne (3)
Lewis 32.8, Jones 30.11, Garlett 29.4
Spargo 19.1, Oliver 21.5, Weiderman 21.6, Wagner 21.9, Fritsch 22.0, Stretch 22.3, O.McDonald 22.9, Lever 22.9, Smith 22.10, Neal-Bullen 22.11

St Kilda (3)
Armitage 30.6, Geary 30.6, Brown 30.0
Coffield 19.2, Clark 19.9, Battle 20.4, Phillips 20.9, Gresham 21.4, Long 21.4, Rice 21.10, Lonie 22.4, McKenzie 22.7, McCartin 22.8
 
Last edited:
Well

I think we're good.

The reality is we haven't really had Deledio. If he can stay on the park for the next year or 2 it'll be a great bonus.

Heater is a bit of a worry. His leadership and defence was very important to our rise from the bottom to finalists. He misses so few games it's been hard to judge the impact of his loss until last years finals. We did well without him then indicating to me our backs are now mature enough to stand on their own two feet more.

Much has been said about his replacement, this may or may not be his final year. You cant actually replace a guy like him but Adam Kennedy is probably the most like for like. Both very tough one on one who'll take their man out first, and then look to run and rebound.

The rucks are the biggest concern. It really comes down to Matt Flynn stepping up next year and I can see him getting games as a ruck/forward. Briggs we have to wait and see a bit, but at 19 2m and 96kgs he looks very promising. At least two years from primary ruck duties Ithink, but some games as a forward a lot earlier are possible.
 
Sith the rule change for 2019 the team with greater experience will b advantages. Those with more pool in the 100+ category will b stronger as runners r only allowed after the goal. More on field experience needed
 

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Swans might be in a bit of strife by 2021 imo. Can't see them winning another flag under Longmire tbh.

I can't get a read on Port Adelaide, are they going all in on a full rebuild or an aggressive 'mini reset' ? I can see why PAFC fans are pissed, there is no clear message from the grand poobahs at Port (ie Koch and Ken) as to what are the goals for 2019 and beyond. Gutted for Robbie Gray, he deserves to play in more finals/a premiership. Hard to see it happening as things stand now at Port.
 
As for the Swans

Sydney (8)
McVeigh 33.8, Grundy 32.6, Franklin 31.11, Tippett 31.7, Jack 31.6, Smith 30.6, Kennedy 30.6, Sinclair 29.3
McCartin 19.0, Hayward 20.2, Florent 20.5, Ronke 21.0, Clarke 21.6, Dawson 21.8, Mills 21.8, Melican 22.1, Papley 22.5, Heeney 22.7, Rose 22.8

Despite the very good names on the list I am not too concerned, well not very anyway. McVeigh is still good but he missed some games in 2018, Grundy is slowly being transitioned out, Tippett is not actually playing anymore even though he is on our list and I feel like Sinclair and Kennedy have a few more years left. If Kennedy has a rapid fall though that could be a problem.

As for Jack, well he was a liability in 2018, so him retiring is not going to hurt the Swans.

The main concern is Buddy. I hope like hell he has another 2 or 3 seasons in him.

As for other clubs, I feel like Hawthorn might be in a bit of trouble since they have a lot of very good players over 29 and they don't have many players under 23, and the players they do have are underwhelming at best.

Geelong have a lot of youth, but none of them seem to be anywhere near the quality of those that they will need to replace.

 

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Anja_Nees said:
The Dogs’ older players listed above all struggled to get on the park at all in 2018 anyway so hopefully the youngsters are up to it because we need them now.
Click to expand...

Is it fair to say that a couple of Doggies youngsters haven't developed as expected or hoped by now ?

Don't think Dalhaus will be a big loss myself, he has too much personal issues going. Its bit of a shame a premiership player left in not great terms with the club, but that's footy..
 
Interesting the number of votes for Geelong given that they have just turned over 12 players this offseason and have turned over 70% of the list in the last 5 years
 
Alphonse_ said:
Is it fair to say that a couple of Doggies youngsters haven't developed as expected or hoped by now ?

Don't think Dalhaus will be a big loss myself, he has too much personal issues going. Its bit of a shame a premiership player left in not great terms with the club, but that's footy..
Click to expand...
Some may be a little behind where we’d like but most of us accept it’s more that the older players were rapidly wiped out this year and players like Dahlhaus, Clay Smith, Biggs and Redpath etc for various reasons didn’t fill the void.

People forget how young even the likes of Bont, Hunter, Macrae, McLean, Boyd etc were when we won the flag. They’re now, for better or worse, some of our more experienced players.
 
Collingwood review

Wells 4 games in 2018 - fine player, but rarely gets on the park. If it weren’t for his contract he’d be already gone. Replaced by Sier.

Dunn 14 games in 2018 - played every game before rupturing his ACL. Never really adequately replaced in the team in 2018 (could have done with him in the GF), but Collingwood do have a large number of backline players coming back in including Moore (Back from chronic hamstring injury), Scharenberg (Back from 3rd ACL), Appleby, T.Brown, Aish, Madgen (Cat B player thrown in the deep end in 2018), Murphy, Quaynor (New recruit), Will Kelly (New recruit).

Goldsack 4 games in 2018 after doing his ACL in the pre-season. Came in because Collingwood were desperate for competent backline players but going into 2019 seem to have addressed that need (see Dunn)

Pendlebury 25 games in 2018. He’s going to be tough to replace. Sidebottom is a natural leadership replacement. It remains to be seen what candidates there are to replace him on the field. Maybe either C.Brown or Wills but they’re coming from a long long way back.

Varcoe 20 games in 2018. If Elliott can come back then that’s an easy replacement - but that’s a big if. Daicos or C.Brown other options. Crocker is also on the list, but he hasn’t been performing so well.

Mayne 21 games in 2018. See replacement list under Dunn. He’ll probably be replaced by Aish or Murphy.

Greenwood 16 games in 2018. Not sure that we have any of those tagging midfielders coming up through the ranks.

Reid 6 games in 2018. Already replaced in the side by Mihocek. Reid will probably struggle to get a game in 2019.

The only five players on that list who just played in the GF were Goldsack, Pendlebury, Varcoe, Mayne and Greenwood. The only one of those players who is unlikely to be overtaken by a younger player in 2019 is Pendlebury ... but he’s been quite durable and he puts a lot into looking after himself. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him go around another three years, especially if he gets moved out of the midfield.
 
Boxhead_31 said:
Interesting the number of votes for Geelong given that they have just turned over 12 players this offseason and have turned over 70% of the list in the last 5 years
Click to expand...
While not a huge amount of players in the +30 bracket, they are all extremely important players. At least to the structure of the current game plan.
 
76woodenspooners said:
Collingwood review

Wells 4 games in 2018 - fine player, but rarely gets on the park. If it weren’t for his contract he’d be already gone. Replaced by Sier.

Dunn 14 games in 2018 - played every game before rupturing his ACL. Never really adequately replaced in the team in 2018 (could have done with him in the GF), but Collingwood do have a large number of backline players coming back in including Moore (Back from chronic hamstring injury), Scharenberg (Back from 3rd ACL), Appleby, T.Brown, Aish, Madgen (Cat B player thrown in the deep end in 2018), Murphy, Quaynor (New recruit), Will Kelly (New recruit).

Goldsack 4 games in 2018 after doing his ACL in the pre-season. Came in because Collingwood were desperate for competent backline players but going into 2019 seem to have addressed that need (see Dunn)

Pendlebury 25 games in 2018. He’s going to be tough to replace. Sidebottom is a natural leadership replacement. It remains to be seen what candidates there are to replace him on the field. Maybe either C.Brown or Wills but they’re coming from a long long way back.

Varcoe 20 games in 2018. If Elliott can come back then that’s an easy replacement - but that’s a big if. Daicos or C.Brown other options. Crocker is also on the list, but he hasn’t been performing so well.

Mayne 21 games in 2018. See replacement list under Dunn. He’ll probably be replaced by Aish or Murphy.

Greenwood 16 games in 2018. Not sure that we have any of those tagging midfielders coming up through the ranks.

Reid 6 games in 2018. Already replaced in the side by Mihocek. Reid will probably struggle to get a game in 2019.

The only five players on that list who just played in the GF were Goldsack, Pendlebury, Varcoe, Mayne and Greenwood. The only one of those players who is unlikely to be overtaken by a younger player in 2019 is Pendlebury ... but he’s been quite durable and he puts a lot into looking after himself. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him go around another three years, especially if he gets moved out of the midfield.
Click to expand...
have to say, I was surprised the Pies were in second place on the list of 29+ players. Hawks going off a cliff if you focus on this kind of analysis.
 
RUNVS said:
Done. Also thanks.

Side note though on the face of it, given Hawthorn's list demographics signing a 30 year old seems like a slightly odd choice. Could a Hawthorn fan possibly say why Hawthorn decided to go down this route?
Click to expand...

Not a hawks fan but it's pretty clear they need some push button ready back up options down back. Youth is not everything, look at all the sides that have the most youth above. THey were all s**t in 2018. You can regenerate your list year by year, rather than going through full rebuilds
 
craffles said:
Not a hawks fan but it's pretty clear they need some push button ready back up options down back. Youth is not everything, look at all the sides that have the most youth above. THey were all s**t in 2018. You can regenerate your list year by year, rather than going through full rebuilds
Click to expand...

True, but even so Mohr is an odd choice since he is injured a lot and barely played the last few years.
 
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