Which team is in the most trouble replacing its aging players? - 2020 edition

Which team is in the most trouble replacing its aging players?

  • Adelaide

    Votes: 54 12.6%
  • Brisbane

    Votes: 1 0.2%
  • Carlton

    Votes: 14 3.3%
  • Collingwood

    Votes: 49 11.4%
  • Essendon

    Votes: 19 4.4%
  • Fremantle

    Votes: 5 1.2%
  • Geelong

    Votes: 220 51.3%
  • Gold Coast

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • GWS

    Votes: 2 0.5%
  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 90 21.0%
  • Melbourne

    Votes: 2 0.5%
  • North Melbourne

    Votes: 16 3.7%
  • Port Adelaide

    Votes: 14 3.3%
  • Richmond

    Votes: 22 5.1%
  • St Kilda

    Votes: 2 0.5%
  • Sydney

    Votes: 21 4.9%
  • West Coast

    Votes: 32 7.5%
  • Western Bulldogs

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    429

RUNVS

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So this is a thread I have been creating for the last few years as I think it is an interesting topic where we compare the older players of each club, the ones getting closer to retirement and see what youth each club has to potentially replace the older stars. So basically does a team have enough quality youth coming through to replace the older players.

I will be comparing 29+ players with players who are under 23.

The cut off date is going to be the 1st of January 2020, so I am going to assume, age-wise, that it is the 1st of January 2020.

Now, for the older players if they are going to be 29 or older on the 1.1.20 then they will make the list as 29 is about the age where players can start slowing down.

For the younger players there are two criteria

- Have to be under 23 at the 1.1.20
- Have to of played at least 5 games

I include the last criterium because otherwise I am including rookies and new draft picks that ultimately no one knows if they will succeed or not. Having played at least 5 games there is at least a little body of work to discuss.

The basic pemise is which teams are going to have the most trouble replacing their older players with their younger players? Which teams just don't have the youth coming through to replace the players that will be retiring in the next few years. It isn't just about numbers either, as one team might have fairly average older players who are easier to replace, but another team might have huge numbers of younger players but none of them are that good.

I also apologise in advance if I got any of the below information wrong as it is very possible I have missed a few things.

I have given everyone 3 choices in the poll, just to get more of a range of opinions.

So to get started

Geelong (10)
Ablett Jnr 35.7, Taylor 33.6, Selwood 31.7, Hawkins 31.5, Jenkins, 30.10, Tuohy 30.0, Henderson 30.0, Stevens 29.9, Dangerfield 29.9, Stanley 29.1
Clark 19.2, Constable 20.7, Fogarty 20.8, Miers 20.8, Henry 21.4, Ratugolea 21.5, Guthrie 21.6, Simpson 21.6, Parfitt 21.8, Narkle 22.0, Parsons 22.8, O'Conner 22.11

Collingwood (9)
Pendlebury 31.11, Varco 31.8, Mayne 31.1, Greenwood, 30.10, Reid 30.8, Beams 29.10, Howe 29.6, Roughead 29.1, Sidebottom 29.0
Appleby 20.11, Stephenson 20.11, Daicos 21.1, Brown 21.8, Sier 22.1, Noble 22.9

Hawthorn (8)

Burgoyne 37.2, Puopolo 33.0, Henderson 31.3, Frawley 31.3, Smith 31.0, Stratton 30.9, McEvoy 30.4, Breust 29.1
Moore 20.4, Worpel 20.11, Morrison 21.1, Lewis 21.2, Scrimshaw 21.3, Hanrahan 21.4, Nash 21.5, Cousins 21.8, Glass 22.3, Hardwick 22.10

GWS (8)
Shaw 34.1, Mumford 33.5, Jacobs 31.8, Reid 30.1, De Boer 29.9, Ward 29.8, Keefe 29.8, Davis 29.4
Hately 19.2, Hill 19.10, Taylor 20.7, Daniels 20.9, Perryman 21.0, Cumming 21.4, Taranto 21.11, Hopper 22.10

Port Adelaide (7)

Westhoff 33.2, Gray 31.9, Boak 31.5, Rockliff 29.10, Ebert 29.8, Harlett 29.4, Dixon 29.3
Butters 19.3, Duursma 19.5, Rozee 19.11, Farrell 20.9, Marshall 21.2, Drew 21.2, Ladhams 21.11, Powell-Pepper 21.11, Houston 22.6, Bonner 22.9, Burton 22.10

West Coast (6)

Kennedy 32.4, Hurn 32.3, Schofield 30.11, Jetta 30.7, Naitanui 29.7, Shuey 29.6
Cameron 19.7, Petruccelle 20.8, Allen 20.9, Venables 21.1, Waterman 21.7, Cole 22.7

Carlton (6)

Simpson 35.7, Betts 33.1, Murphy 32.4, Kruezer 30.7, Curnow 30.1, Casboult 29.9
Walsh 19.5, Stocker 19.11, Dow 20.2, O'Brien 20.3, Williamson 21.0, Fisher 21.6, Macreadie 21.8, Polson 21.9, Petrevski-Seton 21.10, Setterfield 21.10, McKay 22.0, Silvagni 22.0, Weitering 22.1, Kennedy 22.8, Cunningham 22.9, Curnow 22.10

Adelaide (5)

MacKay 30.5, Gibbs 29.9, Sloan 29.9, Walker 29.8, Lynch 29.3
Jones 19.11, Fogarty 20.3, Murphy 21.0, Poholke 21.5, Himmelberg 21.6, Gallucci 21.7, Milera 22.3, Keays 22.10, Doedee 22.10

Richmond (5)

Houli 31.7, Edwards 31.2, Riewoldt, 31.2, Rance, 30.2, Cotchin 29.8
Ross 19.3, Stack 19.8, Balta 21.2, Higgins 21.9, Bolton 21.0, Garthwaite 21.6, Graham 21.10, Baker 21,11, Rioli 22.8, Chol 22.11

Brisbane (5)

Martin 33.1, Birchall 31.11, Zorko 30.10, Robinson 30.6, Rich 29.6
Raynar 20.2, Bailey 20.3, Answerth 20.4, Starcevich 20.5, Witherden 21.3, Allison 21.8, McLuggage 21.9, Berry 21.10, Ah Chee 22.2, Hipwood 22.3, Cox 22.4, Mathieson 21.11

Western Bulldogs (5)

Dickson 32.3, Suckling 31.5, Wood 30.3, Lloyd 29.9, Trengrove 29.1
Smith 19.0, Naughton 20.1, Richards 20.5, Young 21.0, Lipinski 21.5, Greene 22.0, Williams 22.2, Schache 22.4, English 22.4, Lynch 22.5 Dunkley 22.11

Essendon (5)

Hooker 30.2, Bellchambers 29.5, Zaharakis 29.10, Hurley 29.6, McKernan 29.3
Ham 20.7, Ridley 21.2, Clarke 21.2, Begley 21.5, McGrath 21.6, Redman 22.4, Snelling 22.4, Guelfi 22.4, Francis 22.4, Parish 22.5

North Melbourne (4)

Higgins 31.9, Goldstein 31.5, Tarrant 30.8, Hall 29.1
Thomas 19.9, Davies-Uniacke 20.6, Bonar 20.9, Larkey 21.5, Zurhaar 21.7, Simpkin 21.9

Sydney (4)

Franklin 32.11, Kennedy 31.6, Sinclair 30.3, Rampe 29.7
Rowbottom 19.2, Blakey 19.10, McCartin 20.0, Hayward 21.2, Florent 21.5, Ronke 22.0, Clarke 22.6, Dawson 22.8, Mills 22.8

Melbourne (4)

Jones 30.11, Hibberd 29.11, Jetta 29.10, Brown 29.3
Dunkley 19.6, Spargo 20.1, Petty 20.1, Baker 21.7, Oliver 22.5, Weiderman 22.6, Wagner 22.9, Fritsch 22.11

St Kilda (4)

Ryder 31.9, Geary 31.6, Brown 31.0, Savage 29.0
Coffield 20.2, Clark 20.9, Paton 21.2, Battle 21.4, Phillips 21.9, Gresham 22.4, Long 22.4, Joyce 22.8

Gold Coast (3)

Harbrow 31.5, Hanley 31.1, Smith 29.10
Lukosius 19.4, King 19.4, Heron 20.0, Dawson 20.1, Powell 20.4, Ballard 20.5, Brodie 21.4, Ainsworth 21.10, Bowes 21.11, Macpherson 22.2, Fiorini 22.4, Joyce 22.4, Schoenfield 22.5

Fremantle (2)

Mundy 34.5, Hill 29.7
Brayshaw 20.1, Cerra 20.2, Crowden 20.8, Giro 20.9, Cox 21.4, Darcy 21.5, Duman 21.8, Logue 21.8, Banfield 21.10, Tucker 21,11
 
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RUNVS

Hall of Famer
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Could the op list the last 10 premiers and the number of over 29s and under 23s in the team?

facts are if you are on a list at 29, you are a well above average player
I agree that if a player is 29 and is still playing odds are they are well above average, which I think makes it even more interesting in discussing eventually replacing them. I agree though that having 5 or 6 players over 29 in a side is important for winning premierships, but even so, those players will need replacing eventually.

It is also especially bad if you have 6 or more players over 29 and you are not in premiership contention as that implies a slip down the ladder sooner rather than later.
 

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blitzer

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 27, 2006
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Could the op list the last 10 premiers and the number of over 29s and under 23s in the team?

facts are if you are on a list at 29, you are a well above average player
The general idea is right but can also mean that at their peak they were above average but now might just be average. Also if you play key positions or ruck it may not even mean that. Plus sometimes teams are just really weak in terms of certain positions so they keep players that wouldn't get games at other teams. There's no really simple way to conclude quality from age.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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The general idea is right but can also mean that at their peak they were above average but now might just be average. Also if you play key positions or ruck it may not even mean that. Plus sometimes teams are just really weak in terms of certain positions so they keep players that wouldn't get games at other teams. There's no really simple way to conclude quality from age.
yeah not that I really care if our brownlow medalist mitchell is under 22. Good times
 

RUNVS

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Why 29 and not 31? Or 33?

Is Hawthorn better in 2020 if we replace Burgoyne with Day ?
29 is when players can start slowing down. Not all do, but it is the point where old age can begin to take effect for some players.
 

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RUNVS

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those are the ones which are already cut from lists?
Not necessarily. Things were going great for Nick Smith, him shutting down opposition small forwards week in week out and he looked like he was going to be playing until 33 or so, but when he hit 29 Swans fans saw a noticable decline in his ability to negate the opposition small forwards. Perhaps he lost a little pace, or injuries were catching up with him, but at 29 he did start to decline in his output.

Look from a Hawthorn point of view. Cyril was a really good player but his last year at Hawthorn his form and his abilities did seem to dip dramatically.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
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Not necessarily. Things were going great for Nick Smith, him shutting down opposition small forwards week in week out and he looked like he was going to be playing until 33 or so, but when he hit 29 Swans fans saw a noticable decline in his ability to negate the opposition small forwards. Perhaps he lost a little pace, or injuries were catching up with him, but at 29 he did start to decline in his output.

Look from a Hawthorn point of view. Cyril was a really good player but his last year at Hawthorn his form and his abilities did seem to dip dramatically.
cyril left before 29. In fact he left hawthorn at an age brfore the age when burgoyne joined.

hows that fit into the age based discussion?
 

Football Tragic

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Nov 11, 2010
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Richmond (5)
Houli 31.7, Edwards 31.2, Riewoldt, 31.2, Rance, 30.2, Cotchin 29.8
Ross 19.3, Stack 19.8, Balta 21.2, Higgins 21.9, Bolton 21.0, Garthwaite 21.6, Graham 21.10, Baker 21,11, Rioli 22.8, Chol 22.11

Before this season I dreaded the idea of our older players moving on. Losing the likes of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Rance or Houli would send us spiraling down the ladder. Then 2019 happened. We had a horrific run of injuries to our most experienced players. At one stage all of the above plus Dusty, Nankervis and Short were out of the side yet our younger players stepped up. Now I don't hold the same fears.

Richmond was definitely a stronger side when all our older players returned but we were far from noncompetitive in their absence. When these older players do eventually retire, we already have the depth to cover them. Throw in some trades, free agents and a few more years of drafts and I am certain we will more than cover for our aging stars.
 

PonsfordMagpie

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Could the op list the last 10 premiers and the number of over 29s and under 23s in the team?

facts are if you are on a list at 29, you are a well above average player
Richmond (2019) = 4 + 6 = (10)

- 1). Bachar Houli (31)
- 2). Shane Edwards (30)
- 3). Jack Riewoldt (30)
- 4). Trent Cotchin (30)

- 1). Shai Bolton (20)
- 2). Liam Baker (21)
- 3). Daniel Rioli (22)
- 4). Ivan Soldo (23)
- 5). Jayden Short (23)
- 6). Jason Castagna (23)

West Coast (2018) = 6 + 7 = (13)

- 1). Mark LeCras (32)
- 2). Shannon Hurn (31)
- 3). Josh Kennedy (31)
- 4). Lewis Jetta (29)
- 5). Chris Masten (29)
- 6). Will Schofield (29)

- 1). Daniel Venables (19)
- 2). Liam Ryan (21)
- 3). Liam Duggan (21)
- 4). Tom Cole (21)
- 5). Tom Barass (22)
- 6). Dom Sheed (23)
- 7). Willie Rioli (23)

Richmond (2017) = 2 + 7 = (9)

- 1). Shaun Grigg (29)
- 2). Bachar Houli (29)

- 1). Jack Graham (19)
- 2). Daniel Rioli (20)
- 3). Jason Castagna (21)
- 4). Dan Butler (21)
- 5). Nick Vlastuin (23)
- 6). Toby Nankervis (23)
- 7). Kamdyn McIntosh (23)

Western Bulldogs (2016) = 4 + 13 = (17)

- 1). Matthew Boyd (34)
- 2). Dale Morris (33)
- 3). Liam Picken (30)
- 4). Tory Dickson (29)

- 1). Josh Dunkley (19)
- 2). Zaine Cordy (19)
- 3). Toby McLean (20)
- 4). Caleb Daniel (20)
- 5). Marcus Bontempelli (20)
- 6). Lachie Hunter (21)
- 7). Tom Boyd (21)
- 8). Jake Stringer (22)
- 9). Jack Macrae (22)
- 10). Clay Smith (23)
- 11). Fletcher Roberts (23)
- 12). Jason Johannisen (23)
- 13). Joel Hamling (23)

Hawthorn (2015) = 7 + 2 = (9)

- 1). Brian Lake (33)
- 2). Shaun Burgoyne (32)
- 3). Sam Mitchell (32)
- 4). Josh Gibson (31)
- 5). David Hale (31)
- 6). Luke Hodge (31)
- 7). Jordan Lewis (29)

- 1). Bradley Hill (22)
- 2). Jack Gunston (23)

Hawthorn (2014) = 6 + 6 = (12)

- 1). Brian Lake (32)
- 2). Shaun Burgoyne (31)
- 3). Sam Mitchell (31)
- 4). Josh Gibson (30)
- 5). David Hale (30)
- 6). Luke Hodge (30)

- 1). Bradley Hill (21)
- 2). Will Langford (22)
- 3). Jack Gunston (22)
- 4). Liam Shiels (23)
- 5). Taylor Duryea (23)
- 6). Luke Breust (23)

Hawthorn (2013)
= 8 + 4 = (12)

- 1). Brent Guerra (31)
- 2). Brian Lake (31)
- 3). Shaun Burgoyne (30)
- 4). Sam Mitchell (30)
- 5). Josh Gibson (29)
- 6). David Hale (29)
- 7). Luke Hodge (29)
- 8). Brad Sewell (29)

- 1). Bradley Hill (20)
- 2). Jack Gunston (21)
- 3). Liam Shiels (22)
- 4). Luke Breust (22)

Sydney (2012) = 7 + 6 = (13)

- 1). Jude Bolton (32)
- 2). Adam Goodes (32)
- 3). Ryan O'Keefe (31)
- 4). Martin Mattner (30)
- 5). Rhyce Shaw (30)
- 6). Ted Richards (29)
- 7). Lewis Roberts-Thomson (29)

- 1). Luke Parker (19)
- 2). Sam Reid (20)
- 3). Alex Johnson (20)
- 4). Dan Hannebery (21)
- 5). Lewis Jetta (23)
- 6). Craig Bird (23)

Geelong (2011) = 9 + 6 = (15)

- 1). Matthew Scarlett (32)
- 2). Brad Ottens (31)
- 3). David Wojcinski (31)
- 4). Corey Enright (30)
- 5). Cameron Ling (30)
- 6). James Podsiadly (30)
- 7). Paul Chapman (29)
- 8). Joel Corey (29)
- 9). Josh Hunt (29)

- 1). Mitch Duncan (20)
- 2). Allen Christensen (20)
- 3). Trent West (23)
- 4). Travis Varcoe (23)
- 5). Joel Selwood (23)
- 6). Tom Hawkins (23)

Collingwood (2010) = 1 + 14 = (15)

- 1). Ben Johnson (29)

- 1). Steele Sidebottom (19)
- 2). Jarryd Blair (20)
- 3). Dayne Beams (20)
- 4). Ben Reid (21)
- 5). Nathan Brown (21)
- 6). Sharrod Wellingham (22)
- 7). Scott Pendlebury (22)
- 8). Brent Macaffer (22)
- 9). Chris Dawes (22)
- 10). Alan Toovey (23)
- 11). Dale Thomas (23)
- 12). Heritier Lumumba (23)
- 13). Tyson Goldsack (23)
- 14). Travis Cloke (23)
 

aussierulesrules

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Wow, Collingwood 1 and 14 in 2010 (with Pendles, Beams, Sidebottom, Cloke, Reid and Daisy all 23 or under) and they only won one flag! :oops:

Mick must be spitting chips at getting the ass there when they could have been starting a "dynasty", and having watched Bucks dismantle that team.
 
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theyellowsash

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Voted Adelaide taking into account the experienced players they already lost, that Crouch appears likely to leave, and that their experiences players are pretty much all their best players.

Geelong certainly has the most, but most of them aren't actually particularly good anyway and some wouldn't be getting a game at a lot of clubs (no-one else wanted Jenkins, Geelong didn't even want Henderson, and most clubs have a better ruck than Stanley)
 

HairyO

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 13, 2015
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29 is when players can start slowing down. Not all do, but it is the point where old age can begin to take effect for some players.
Some slow down at 28 and some at 30.

Its an arbitrary number. Which makes any analysis essentially pointless.

If someone actually researched and found the age where soft tissue injuries became far more likely, and the age where retirement (not delisting) became far more likely, then you would have the basis for a discussion.
 

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