Which team is in the most trouble replacing its aging players? - 2020 edition

[juss]

Just as Hawks reach their regular 7 year high point 2001-2008-2015-2022

Lol maybe, I think there's a few better young teams coming up to take our mantle.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Ooft. I'd be taking Mcgrath every day of the week

Thank you for sharing your opinion. I think if McGrath can put it all together he certainly has enormous upside in my opinion. Really needs to break out this year.

Because you have Cripps.

Who are the inside mids at Essendon ?

Our inside mids are so terrible, but we finished above Hawthorn for clearances and contested possessions in 2019?

I agree we need an inside contested bull, but the mids we have now aren't terrible. Shiel, Heppell and Merrett are all more than capable of being decent clearance players. I wouldn't mind Worpel, but I think Mitch Hibberd could go on to become the next superstar inside mid. Feel free to disagree but that's just my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

No need to put down McGrath just to talk up Worpel. If I can give my honest opinion, both will be good players for their clubs.

 

[HairyO]

I havent put down McGrath at all.

BTW, 50 more free kicks is 50 more contested possessions and clearances.

3 handballs trying to get a ball out of a contest all count.

The better stat is effective contested possessions. Not sure those are available.

But I would think its the one area Essendon struggled. And we get Mitchell joining Shiels and Worpel. Moving OMeara to the outside where he is elite.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Port having to replace boak gray rocky Ebert Hartlett
With wines probably requesting out again will need to overhaul their midfield

 

[PCORF]

I think Geelong really needs to take it's chance this year.

 

[Stan Judkins]

Richmond supporters are kidding themselves to think that their youth will replace the likes of Cotchin, Rance, Jack, Houli and Edwards. Their group of youngsters are overrated and ordinary. Once the oldies mentioned above drop off which is just around the corner for many of them (Cotchin is already showing it) the Tigers will struggle to make finals.

Dangerous times for Cats, Eagles and Pies.

Hawks are not in danger when it’s oldies call it quits. Most of the improvement towards the end of the year was on the back of its younger players and in the B&F 4 of the top 6 were 24yo and under.

Really matey, says you an expert on our list?
Hawthorn has nine players wrong side of 30, Richmond has 4 now that Rance has retired
Hawks have to replace 9 top 22, Tigers 4, please explain how Tigers, not Hawks will drop off around the corner and struggle to make finals going forward

 

[Gavin Excell]

I think Geelong really needs to take it's chance this year.

Yep
School of thought that chance was last year

 

[Grrr]

Really matey, says you an expert on our list?
Hawthorn has nine players wrong side of 30, Richmond has 4 now that Rance has retired
Hawks have to replace 9 top 22, Tigers 4, please explain how Tigers, not Hawks will drop off around the corner and struggle to make finals going forward

He has a point on replacing Riewoldt, Rance and Cotchin. They have been super players. But they don't have to be replaced overnight as they aren't that old. Anyway given Lynch has sort of replaced Riewoldt, and Stack will be star, so there's the Cotchin replacement, and we did well without Rance last season, and Balta could be anything and a far better player than Rance at the same age.... transition is not always that difficult.

 

[hk89]

Really matey, says you an expert on our list?
Hawthorn has nine players wrong side of 30, Richmond has 4 now that Rance has retired

Who are these 9? By my count, we've got 7 players who will be over 30 by the time the season starts.

Of those 7, only 2 have reached 32, so at least some of the 5 aged 30 and 31 may have at least 2-3 years left in them, so replacements are not that urgent for most of them. Furthermore, we haven't been overly reliant on several of those 30+ year olds, none of those guys were in our top two for any of total goals, total rebounds, total intercepts, total possessions, or total clearances (they were Worpel and O'Meara for the latter two, and Breust, Gunston for the goals (with Lewis next), and Sicily and Hardwick for the rebounds and intercepts). Henderson and McEvoy were probably the 30+ year olds we relied on the most.

 

[hk89]

Our inside mids are so terrible, but we finished above Hawthorn for clearances and contested possessions in 2019?

Comparing teams on metrics without noting their game style doesn't tell you much. Hawthorn finished second last for clearances, the only team that finished below them was the premier. The premier also finished second last for contested possessions (and WC finished last). You don't necessarily need to win stoppage clearances if you rely heavily on putting pressure on the opposition and generating turnovers like Richmond does. Similarly teams that tend to rely on retaining possession as a key aspect of their gamelan tend to get less contested ball numbers. Having the guy that was 1st and 2nd for clearances and contested possessions in the competition the previous season break his leg in the pre-season probably had somewhat of an impact too (although we were bottom 6 for those metrics in 2018 too, so again, game style has as much impact as personnel).

 

[Foucault1989]

Comparing teams on metrics without noting their game style doesn't tell you much. Hawthorn finished second last for clearances, the only team that finished below them was the premier. The premier also finished second last for contested possessions (and WC finished last). You don't necessarily need to win stoppage clearances if you rely heavily on putting pressure on the opposition and generating turnovers like Richmond does. Similarly teams that tend to rely on retaining possession as a key aspect of their gamelan tend to get less contested ball numbers. Having the guy that was 1st and 2nd for clearances and contested possessions in the competition the previous season break his leg in the pre-season probably had somewhat of an impact too (although we were bottom 6 for those metrics in 2018 too, so again, game style has as much impact as personnel).

Seems like an awful load of back peddling. Your argument is Essendon have no decent inside mids, they get more clearances than Hawthorn and finish ABOVE them on the ladder, now suddenly clearances and contested possessions are entirely contextual and cannot be relied upon as a reliable metric....lots of moving goal posts here.

 

[Grrr]

Comparing teams on metrics without noting their game style doesn't tell you much. Hawthorn finished second last for clearances, the only team that finished below them was the premier. The premier also finished second last for contested possessions (and WC finished last). You don't necessarily need to win stoppage clearances if you rely heavily on putting pressure on the opposition and generating turnovers like Richmond does. Similarly teams that tend to rely on retaining possession as a key aspect of their gamelan tend to get less contested ball numbers. Having the guy that was 1st and 2nd for clearances and contested possessions in the competition the previous season break his leg in the pre-season probably had somewhat of an impact too (although we were bottom 6 for those metrics in 2018 too, so again, game style has as much impact as personnel).

Good points, the secret to winning around the ball is to have players who use it really well. The best way to beat a defensive press is to have players who constructively put their team mates into space rather than just win it and dish it out. That is why players like Pendelbury have been so good for so long, they can absorb the pressure and free up their team mates. Edwards & Martin at Richmond are similar, they give it off constructively. Pressure around the ball is no.1 at Richmond, Jack Graham, Cotchin etc, so whilst other teams may win the contested ball and stoppages, if they turn it over we counter attack better than anyone else. Metres gained especially by hand win you games.

 

[RobZombie]

I actually agree with both of you. He's annoying most Richmond fans as well as North ones.

However the problem with North is that the 3 old guys are in their best, and most important, 5 players on the list and I'm not sure that they will be replaced by anyone currently on the list. Higgins is a gun but I haven't seen anyone from North with the same skillset or reading of the play that Higgins has. You have nobody that will replace Goldstein (I could probably see a trade in once he retires). However your biggest loss will be Tarrant, especially with Thompson just retired. Even though you drafted a few KPBs none seems to be showing much yet.

I assume you're talking about Higgins, Tarrant, Goldstein? Yes, as things stand they're 2 of the top 3 in the last B&F, and Higgins would probably have been top 5 if he played 22 games. But you don't stay on any list that long if you're no good.

In order of least to most concerned, Higgins, Goldstein, Tarrant.

For the first time in about a decade the young mids at North look exciting enough that losing even one of Higgins' calibre shouldn't be a huge deal. LDU, Thomas, Bonar, Bailey Scott, Will Walker, and this and next year's draftees will all get a shot a the role and two or three of them will work out as quality players.

Goldy has been ridiculously durable over the journey and it's impossible to say how the replacement stocks will look in 3 years' time.

KPD depth is genuinely concerning. Right now it's a matter of rolling the dice on recycling Josh Walker and hoping like hell that one or both of Durdin and McKay work out. I'm somewhat optimistic about Durdin, less so about McKay. We need to draft at least one project KPD soon or face overpaying in the trade/FA market.

 

[Pessimistic]

Is it time to combine all these threads under the bracket title 'Because Youf"

 

[GoldStandard]

This site seems to have a real obsession with players' ages. Geelong were apparently a retirement home 12 months ago and ended up being a Tom Hawkins suspension away from a flag.

 

[JackFlash]

Footy fans never cease to amaze me..

 

[Coaster2012]

This site seems to have a real obsession with players' ages. Geelong were apparently a retirement home 12 months ago and ended up being a Tom Hawkins suspension away from a flag.

Guess you didn't see their 2nd half of the season then.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

This site seems to have a real obsession with players' ages. Geelong were apparently a retirement home 12 months ago and ended up being a Tom Hawkins suspension away from a flag.

No guarantee's he would've played well in the prelim and been the difference, cats were actually less predictable in the first half without him until we applied the clamps and out scored them by 40 points in the second half despite Dusty playing with a corkie, Graham with his shoulder practically in a sling for the whole game and Broad exiting the game in the 3rd quarter with concussion.

Rememeber

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Cats

 

[JerryRapidRiser]

I think Geelong really needs to take it's chance this year.

That's been the narrative for several years now though hasn't it? They keep doing well to have one more year.

 

[hk89]

Seems like an awful load of back peddling. Your argument is Essendon have no decent inside mids, they get more clearances than Hawthorn and finish ABOVE them on the ladder, now suddenly clearances and contested possessions are entirely contextual and cannot be relied upon as a reliable metric....lots of moving goal posts here.

Firstly I didn't say it was entirely contextual, I said they need to be interpreted in context. Richmond were last and nearly last for the two cited metrics, so clearly context plays a role, and only an idiot would argue otherwise. You didn't strike me as an idiot, but perhaps I was wrong.

Additionally, I didn't say Essendon had no decent inside mids because their clearances and contested possession numbers indicated that was the case, I said they had no decent inside mids because clearly they have no decent inside mids. They rely on guys better suited to other roles helping out in that respect. It was an Essendon fan who was using contested possession and clearance numbers to say something about Essendon (and Hawthorn's) inside mids without referring to context.

 

[lethal03]

in terms of pure talent McGrath is one of the lowest of all number 1 draft picks. He is going to be a 200 gamer, but he isn't going to be winning many All Australians.

I see a potential Pearce Handley career, which is ok, not great.

 

[lethal03]

Lol maybe, I think there's a few better young teams coming up to take our mantle.

Having a 37yr old on your list sways the average.

 

[Freomaniac]

Footy fans never cease to amaze me..

yep. You got people that live Ross Lyon tactics and people that hate it.

I hope Ross Lyon coaches another AFL club to irritate you lol.

Make Ross Lyon great again lol

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

I realise this sort of thing is the same for all clubs. Just depends if your a destination club or not. Must draft and develop well enough to become one, it takes a long time