Which team is in the most trouble replacing its aging players? - 2020 edition

[hk89]

I just restricted to centre clearances because game style doesn’t influence a sides ability to win a centre clearance. Stoppage clearances can largely influenced by game style.

I agree stoppage clearances (especially raw averages instead of differential) are more impacted from game plan that centre clearances, but some teams do setup to prioritise turning the opposition centre clearances into turnovers, so centre clearances aren't a pure measure either. Hawthorn almost conceded the centre clearance early last season, but were aggressive at trying to put pressure on the next disposal, and ended up with the second best turnover differential in the competition. Tigers were a bit better at centre clearance differential, but still in the bottom half, but again they put a lot of focus on that next disposal, and had the third best turnover differential. This worked quite well for both teams, who despite being last and third last for centre clearance differential, Hawthorn and Richmond were 5th and 2nd best for inside 50 differential, which isn't bad given how many centre clearances they were conceding compared to the opposition, Essendon had the 4th worse inside 50 differential, despite doing quite well on centre clearance differential. Wish I could see stats on inside 50 from centre clearance stats to clarify how effective different teams were at nullifying opposition centre clearance wins.

I think you calling Essendon’s midfield is confirmation bias. You have to remember contested possessions doesn’t mean hard ball gets. All intercept possession and loose gets are contested possessions. In that final Essendon could get their hands on the ball but couldn’t move it effectively from a stoppage or from their defensive 50. I’m pretty sure from memory Essendon also won hard ball gets that game.

Agreed that hard ball gets are a more direct measure of what I'm talking about, but I've had trouble finding public stats showing those numbers, and contested possession numbers was the best I could find. Do you have a source which allows you to lookup hard ball get numbers for past games that doesn't require a subscription?

 

[Ambrosia]

I agree stoppage clearances (especially raw averages instead of differential) are more impacted from game plan that centre clearances, but some teams do setup to prioritise turning the opposition centre clearances into turnovers, so centre clearances aren't a pure measure either. Hawthorn almost conceded the centre clearance early last season, but were aggressive at trying to put pressure on the next disposal, and ended up with the second best turnover differential in the competition. Tigers were a bit better at centre clearance differential, but still in the bottom half, but again they put a lot of focus on that next disposal, and had the third best turnover differential. This worked quite well for both teams, who despite being last and third last for centre clearance differential, Hawthorn and Richmond were 5th and 2nd best for inside 50 differential, which isn't bad given how many centre clearances they were conceding compared to the opposition, Essendon had the 4th worse inside 50 differential, despite doing quite well on centre clearance differential. Wish I could see stats on inside 50 from centre clearance stats to clarify how effective different teams were at nullifying opposition centre clearance wins.

Disagree that any side is setting up to lose centre clearances especially with the 6-6-6 rule it makes zero sense. Richmond and Hawthorn are succeeding despite losing CCL not because they are setting up to lose them. 3 peat Hawthorn was the best side at scoring from centre clearances in the league.

Also worth noting that the variance in CCL really isn’t significant once you get outside the best and worst teams.

Agreed that hard ball gets are a more direct measure of what I'm talking about, but I've had trouble finding public stats showing those numbers, and contested possession numbers was the best I could find. Do you have a source which allows you to lookup hard ball get numbers for past games that doesn't require a subscription?

Yeah no idea but it’s annoying because everyone points to CP difference as the midfields fault when it’s much more a team statistic.

 

[hk89]

Disagree that any side is setting up to lose centre clearances especially with the 6-6-6 rule it makes zero sense.

Yes, obviously you don't setup to deliberately lose centre clearances, but there are ways of setting up in the centre square that are more or less aggressive at winning the clearance, and trades off by providing you with more or less coverage when you lose the centre clearance. Hawthorn didn't have a great centre square unit for a big part of the year, and we leant more towards the side of covering for when we lost them, which was a better tradeoff for us given the personnel we had. It is hard to be super aggressive at winning as many centre clearances as possible, and still provide some coverage for stopping a losing clearance turning into a massive scoring opportunity for your opponent, how you decide that mix will have something to do with your strengths and weakness across both your midfield AND your defensive and forward stocks.

Also worth noting that the variance in CCL really isn’t significant once you get outside the best and worst teams.

Yup, which again is why it might not be a gold standard barometer in how your team is going or how your midfield is going. it just doesn't correlate that well with team success. Hawthorn were 8th , 8th and 6th for CCL average differential for 2013,2014 and 2015 so it was lucky we were so good at scoring from them.

 

[JackFlash]

Th

If I wanted you to suffer, I would of wanted the cats to sack your current coach and Hire Ross Lyon as a Replacement! lol

That is cruel, true but cruel! I actually miss Ross Lyon, i really wanted him to find something in his briefcase of game plans. If he ever comes to Geelong i'm getting some rope, a chair and i will rely on YOU to kick it out from underneath me!

 

[Tenny]

North, Carlton, West Coast and Collingwood