Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth?

[Pessimistic]

Absolutely correct. Just recently started scratching the rebuild and as your CEO , Director and President have all said , it will take time. And as you state , a lot of sides have years of development head start.

hawks also inject players in the 23-26 year are group. They do this constantly so the average age never drops that far. Some call this topping up but if your club does this most years it’s not really that

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Collingwood went from spoon to a kick from premiers in 76/7. But more a coaching issue than state of the list. And 12 team comp. They were in finals both the years before and after their spoon year, so 1976 was an outlier.

Thanks for the info! I actually specified AFL (rather than V/AFL) as I expected it would have happened in the eras preceding salary cap/draft/etc (I mean Fitzroy won a "spoon" and a flag in the same year under a different system) - I should have been clearer though. I suppose what I am highlighting is that in an equalised competition (where you can't just buy a bunch of gun/interstate players), the gap between a spoon side and finals side is typically too big a chasm to close in a single season.

 

[Jack Green]

Brisbane went from 15th with 5 wins in 2018 to second in 2019 with 16 wins.
Amazing.
I will need to look at their personnel changes to see how that happened. Do remember they lost a lot of close games in 2018. Could well have won closer to 10.

 

[H00t]

We defeated 5 top 8 sides in 2021, even with injuries. We’ll leapfrog a few in 2022.

Mainly on the back of our older players. We have a number of good players 27+. Which means I don’t think we will be last or bottom 4. North don’t have as much quality in this age bracket hence why they struggled more than us.

Their youth is ahead of ours though. Not surprising given the comparative draft picks both teams have had.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Do you actually watch Crows games?

McAsey has shown very little for us so far.

Jones with his role change this year has shown plenty.

McHenry has played two years of consistent footy and is showing consistent improvement. Too early to call but he has shown enough to suggest he’ll be a better player than Duursma.



Clearly didn’t watch him play in defence. Yes it’s perhaps a bit disappointing he didn’t thrive in the midfield, but he has shown he’s got all the tools to be an AA-level small defender. He’s definitely a better pick than Hately, Clark, Sturt, Stocker, RCD.

I think you may be overstating things a little with McHenry. Injuries meant no games in 2019. He was dropped in 2020 from the spoon side after not kicking a goal in his 8 games and being generally very quiet (14 touches his best effort but also a 2 touch (0 kick), 2 clanger game and several other quiet ones).

Definate improvement this year but to say his form suggests he will be better than Duursma is a stretch IMO. Duursma has shown more, has had 3 consistent seasons, contributes every week, has played some good finals and trumps McHenry on basically every metric at the moment.

 

[Jack Green]

hawks also inject players in the 23-26 year are group. They do this constantly so the average age never drops that far. Some call this topping up but if your club does this most years it’s not really that

They don't seem to have a lot of players in that age group. Not sure what the standard demographic is across AFL lists.
Few trades - Impey , Phillips, Scrimshaw , Lynch and draftees Nash, Reeves , Bramble, Hardwick. Some drafted guys like Nash/Reeves haven't played much and Bramble [ who I really like the look of] mature age recruit.
Suspect both Harwick and Scrimshaw will be part of your backline for years to come . I do think Bramble will be really good value for you to. Impey's handy. The other guys in that age range a bit more speculative.
Think where the Hawks didn't quite get it right post dynasty with Clarkson was topping up/trading in with little youth coming through. It's a balancing act isn't it, and the scales were too heavily weighed to the former.
Hawthorn's best 22 probably about mid table of the 18 sides??

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Brisbane went from 15th with 5 wins in 2018 to second in 2019 with 16 wins.
Amazing.
I will need to look at their personnel changes to see how that happened. Do remember they lost a lot of close games in 2018. Could well have won closer to 10.

That's a good example - not a spoon side but a good example nonetheless. Brisbane did have multiple wins against top 4 sides (and as you say, 5 losses within 7 points)..

North whilst they definitely showed improvement in the second half of the year, have still only won 5 of their last 37 games!

Those 5 wins have come against...

2020
Adelaide (who were winless at the time and went on to "win" the spoon) - 18th

2021
Hawthorn (who were in the middle of a patch where they won 1 out of 9 games) - 14th
Gold Coast - who finished 15th
West Coast (who the played in a patch where they lost 7 of their last 9 games) - 9th
Carlton (who they played in a patch where they lost 4 of their last 5) - 13th

North are improving and I expect them to improve further in 2022. But they haven't beaten a finals side in a long time and have won just 7 games in 2 years (with a very low percentage). To win the required 12 games (and usually need to beat a number of finals bound sides along the way) I see as a step too far.

 

[The 747]

We defeated 5 top 8 sides in 2021, even with injuries. We’ll leapfrog a few in 2022.

Yeah, nah. Dead cat bounce.

 

[Rod Stroker]

North by a country mile.

North are legit finals team

Bookmark this.

In what year?

 

[Pessimistic]

They don't seem to have a lot of players in that age group. Not sure what the standard demographic is across AFL lists.
Few trades - Impey , Phillips, Scrimshaw , Lynch and draftees Nash, Reeves , Bramble, Hardwick. Some drafted guys like Nash/Reeves haven't played much and Bramble [ who I really like the look of] mature age recruit.
Suspect both Harwick and Scrimshaw will be part of your backline for years to come . I do think Bramble will be really good value for you to. Impey's handy. The other guys in that age range a bit more speculative.
Think where the Hawks didn't quite get it right post dynasty with Clarkson was topping up/trading in with little youth coming through. It's a balancing act isn't it, and the scales were too heavily weighed to the former.
Hawthorn's best 22 probably about mid table of the 18 sides??

True - too far that way. Although they didn’t cost early draft picks, Patton sculley and vickery were mis steps

since 2013 the draft strike rate has been
2013 - 1 from 3 Sicily
2014 - 1 from 3 Howe (pittonet traded out)
2015 - 1 from 3 Hardwick (Briton traded out)
2016 - 3 from 3 Morrison Lewis Nash (rookies Hanrahan and cousins notable but gone) Mitchell and omeara traded in
2017 - 3 from 4 Worpel Moore CJ (impey traded in) not bad as 2016 borrowed draft capital
2018 - 1 from 3 Kosi. Scrimshaw Wingard traded in
2019 - 2 from 2 (probably Day Maginness - who knows Morris Jeka)
2020 - 2or3 from 4 DGB Downie Brockman

14 from 25 is 50% ish which is better than league normal, although those 1 from 3 years drag it down, and they are mostly role players notgame breakers - clearly it was hoped the trades would be and a couple more FAs added

will be stronger over 2021-2022

 

[Jack Green]

That's a good example - not a spoon side but a good example nonetheless. Brisbane did have multiple wins against top 4 sides (and as you say, 5 losses within 7 points)..

North whilst they definitely showed improvement in the second half of the year, have still only won 5 of their last 37 games!

Those 5 wins have come against...

2020
Adelaide (who were winless at the time and went on to "win" the spoon) - 18th

2021
Hawthorn (who were in the middle of a patch where they won 1 out of 9 games) - 14th
Gold Coast - who finished 15th
West Coast (who the played in a patch where they lost 7 of their last 9 games) - 9th
Carlton (who they played in a patch where they lost 4 of their last 5) - 13th

North are improving and I expect them to improve further in 2022. But they haven't beaten a finals side in a long time and have won just 7 games in 2 years (with a very low percentage). To win the required 12 games (and usually need to beat a number of finals bound sides along the way) I see as a step too far.

Interesting stats. 4 and a half wins this year.
They could and should improve - but will it be a big difference in the win/loss ratio. They could improve their % by 10 and win half a dozen games and be moving in the right direction. But we wouldn't be expecting them to leapfrog a number of sides to be knocking on the doors of the 8.

 

[Nutjob]

Do you actually watch Crows games?

McAsey has shown very little for us so far.

Jones with his role change this year has shown plenty.

McHenry has played two years of consistent footy and is showing consistent improvement. Too early to call but he has shown enough to suggest he’ll be a better player than Duursma.



Clearly didn’t watch him play in defence. Yes it’s perhaps a bit disappointing he didn’t thrive in the midfield, but he has shown he’s got all the tools to be an AA-level small defender. He’s definitely a better pick than Hately, Clark, Sturt, Stocker, RCD.

Maybe I should have said top 15. You were in a sweet spot to get an elite talent that high. I have watched plenty of Crows games and all I see is a capable defender in Jones. With limited game time down back after failing as a mid, I wouldn’t be mentioning AA just yet.

Galucci is another I should have mentioned in my previous post, who was a top 15 bust. Even Milera wasn’t setting the world on fire before he got injured.

I just find a lot of your first round selections a reach to be honest in recent years. Their form or lack there of seems to prove my point.


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[Jack Green]

We defeated 5 top 8 sides in 2021, even with injuries. We’ll leapfrog a few in 2022.

And lost to every side outside the top 8 in 2021 , bar Collingwood.

 

[Sphynx]

That's a good example - not a spoon side but a good example nonetheless. Brisbane did have multiple wins against top 4 sides (and as you say, 5 losses within 7 points)..

North whilst they definitely showed improvement in the second half of the year, have still only won 5 of their last 37 games!

Those 5 wins have come against...

2020
Adelaide (who were winless at the time and went on to "win" the spoon) - 18th

2021
Hawthorn (who were in the middle of a patch where they won 1 out of 9 games) - 14th
Gold Coast - who finished 15th
West Coast (who the played in a patch where they lost 7 of their last 9 games) - 9th
Carlton (who they played in a patch where they lost 4 of their last 5) - 13th

North are improving and I expect them to improve further in 2022. But they haven't beaten a finals side in a long time and have won just 7 games in 2 years (with a very low percentage). To win the required 12 games (and usually need to beat a number of finals bound sides along the way) I see as a step too far.

Yet in game 38 and 39 we beat two consecutive finals sides of 2020 in GWS and St Kilda.... Leave that out to suit your argument?

 

[Sphynx]

Personally I think North fans need to think five years in advance. That's when this young midfield will be ready.
Note fully expect them to be competing for the flag at that point and will worry Crows fans who think this will be our plan too.

In 5 years?!?!

I know people like to take a conservative approach, but cmon.

Simpkin, Larkey, Zurhaar, Stephenson will be 29 years old in 5 years time...
Thomas & LDU will be 27/28.



I'd like to think we will start to rise a little earlier than that...

2022 might be to soon, but it can't be any later than 2023. We will have about 7 top end midfielders hitting their primes or early 20's (i.e post draftee stage) in 2023.

If we haven't risen by the end of that season the rebuild has been a failure and quite alot of these very promising kids have dropped off the face of the earth development wise.

 

[1990crow]

In 5 years?!?!

I know people like to take a conservative approach, but cmon.

Simpkin, Larkey, Zurhaar, Stephenson will be 29 years old in 5 years time...
Thomas & LDU will be 27/28.



I'd like to think we will start to rise a little earlier than that...

You will rise. But I wouldnt expect a premiership until JFH, Phillips, Powell etc are 23.

Also Stephenson will be 27. Not sure what Maths you're doing.
Thomas 26.

 

[Jack Green]

In 5 years?!?!

I know people like to take a conservative approach, but cmon.

Simpkin, Larkey, Zurhaar, Stephenson will be 29 years old in 5 years time...
Thomas & LDU will be 27/28.



I'd like to think we will start to rise a little earlier than that...

There is a huge difference between starting to rise and realistically being top 4 in consecutive to multiple years and competing for a flag. A host of failed rebuilds and false hopes are testament to this. North certainly moving in the right direction mind you.

 

[Sphynx]

You will rise. But I wouldnt expect a premiership until JFH, Phillips, Powell etc are 23.

Also Stephenson will be 27. Not sure what Maths you're doing.

I'd like to think that Simpkin, Thomas, LDU, Stephenson, McKay (Cunnington if still going) can lead the line while those guys are in their early 20's.

We may not be flag favourites or anything, but we will challenge for finals in 23', no doubt about it.

 

[1990crow]

I'd like to think that Simpkin, Thomas, LDU, Stephenson, McKay (Cunnington if still going) can lead the line while those guys are in their early 20's.

We may not be flag favourites or anything, but we will challenge for finals in 23', no doubt about it.

Read it again. Didn't say you wouldn't rise.

 

[the big lebowski]

My view on Norths short/medium term prospects

2022 - 7 wins is par (double wins in back half of 2021

2023 - challenge for finals and hopefully make them, hopefully win one

2024 - first year of open window to challenge for flag

 

[Golumless]

I think you may be overstating things a little with McHenry. Injuries meant no games in 2019. He was dropped in 2020 from the spoon side after not kicking a goal in his 8 games and being generally very quiet (14 touches his best effort but also a 2 touch (0 kick), 2 clanger game and several other quiet ones).

Definate improvement this year but to say his form suggests he will be better than Duursma is a stretch IMO. Duursma has shown more, has had 3 consistent seasons, contributes every week, has played some good finals and trumps McHenry on basically every metric at the moment.

It's not as big of a call as you're making out, knowing Ports history with developing players under Hinkley. They seem to have one player every 2-4 years that breaks out very early in his career, and then stalls out hard. Duursma is primed to be the next one as he hasn't improved at all on his first year, production wise.

It's rather likely both Duursma and McHenry end up having rather similar careers, with both ending up being quality role players once all is said and done.

 

[WWSD]

• Hawthorn are no longer old
• No longer ignoring the elite end of the draft
• 13th youngest team in the competition now
• Seven selections inside the top 30 in the draft just in the last three years alone

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Yet in game 38 and 39 we beat two consecutive finals sides of 2020 in GWS and St Kilda.... Leave that out to suit your argument?

Yeah, sort of.

I left those games out because they were prior to North's decline. In 2019, North were mid table, having won 10 games with a % around 100. They won 3 of their last 4 games, including a 15 goal belting of Port (which seems so strange now). Including the first 2 games of 2020, North had won 5 of 6 and were generally looking ok (quite good in fact).

It's after that that things completely fell apart, with North winning only 1 of their next 23 matches - and that win was against a winless Adelaide.

Therefore, when I speak of the gap between their current predicament and playing finals, I see not point in referencing the period that preceded their current predicament. Even then, I still mentioned more than once how many games they won in 2020, including the first 2. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they're rubbish or they won't improve - I like North's youngsters, am jealous of the quality, depth and variety in their young midfield and expect them to rise. I just think finals is 2022 is perhaps a rise too far/fast from their starting point and probably not even what the club is focussing on. I think most North supporters would agree

FWIW, Hawthorn have followed a similar trajectory in many ways. In 2018, Hawthorn finished top 4. In 2019, Hawthorn finished the season very strongly, winning 6 of the last 8 (including beating top 4 sides) to very narrowly miss finals. In 2020, they started with 3 wins out of 4, including against reigning premier Richmond and prelim finalist Brisbane. Most were tipping Hawthorn for finals and wondering if they'd be top 4 again. They ended up with 2 more wins for the season and finished 15th. No one is referencing how they looked before their current decline.

What's interesting with the timing of these declines is they occured at almost exactly the same time and coincided with a little something you may have heard of - COVID lockdowns, etc.

 

[Tas]

We leaked a ton of goals because our midfield sucked and the ball was coming in there way to often, and way to fast.

Losing Tarrant hurt, but not fatally. Corr's infection is gone now and will provide that extra defence we need. JZ has 12 months under his belt in that position, so will no longer be learning on the job.

Yes we need more down there, but it is not as fatal as people make out.

Tarrant is a great full back but when he was moved out of full back for McKay he typically got a resting ruckman or very mobile forward, I think getting Corr back will be better for us. Not many sides field three giant A+ key forwards. The elephant in the room is that for our 3rd KPD we are relying on Walker or Bonar. I think Tarrant will have a better year for Richmond next year if he plays back at full back.

Last year averages contested marks, intercept marks, defensive half pressure acts, spoils, contested defensive 1on1s and contested defensive loss % vs career stats.

        CM   IM   DHPA  SP  CD1v1 and DL%    CM   IM   DHPA  SP  CD1v1 and DL%
McKay   0.9, 1.8, 5.4, 6.3, 4.0 and 24.1% vs 0.7, 1.6, 4.8, 6.2, 3.8 and 23.9%
Corr    0.5, 2.0, 6.5, 4.0, 3.5 and 14.3% vs 0.4, 0.9, 5.6, 4.9, 2.9 and 23.4%
Tarrant 0.5, 1.6, 5.1, 4.0, 2.6 and 34.6% vs 0.7, 1.6, 5.2, 4.1, 2.1 and 28.1%
Walker  1.0, 1.6, 4.7, 3.6, 2.7 and 19.6% vs 1.4, 1.1, 3.5, 2.3, 1.7 and 21.2%

Bonar   0.5, 1.1, 7.5, 3.7, 2.1 and 38.1%
Ziebell 0.7, 2.0, 5.9, 2.5, 1.4 and 36.7%

I didn't bother putting Bonar and Ziebell's career numbers as this is the first year they played as defenders. They aren't very good one-on-one defenders so if we have any injuries we are going to get exposed. I think going forward it will be interesting to see the impact Perez and Goater have. I also wouldn't be surprised if someone like Comben doesn't make it as a key forward he like Tarrant might make the transition as a defender, he seems to have the qualities that could translate to a defensive role.

I was hoping we would take Bazzo after Goater but I think at some point we need a couple of young developing defenders but we can't just field a side of 18-22 year olds, we will probably have scope to look at those type of players once the last of the older Scott era players are retired/delisted; Goldy, Hall, Ziebell, Cunnington and Walker. It will also give us a couple of years to see if anyone we have taken on recently doesn't look like they are going to make it.

It would be more pressing if we were hoping to contend next year but I think we are looking to just improve and get off the bottom of the ladder next year, we don't need to have the most complete and balanced list at this stage.

 

[Jack Green]

• Hawthorn are no longer old
• No longer ignoring the elite end of the draft
• 13th youngest team in the competition now
• Seven selections inside the top 30 in the draft just in the last three years alone

Not old , but not young - with Gunston 30 and Sicily hopefully returning with the old vanguard Shiels , BB and Bruest early 30's with the trade ins of recent years 28+ - suspect best starting 22 will be mid table .

7 inside 30 past 3 years - that's the issue isn't it. Their no longer ignoring the draft , but they haven't had great access to the pointy end.

They've neither traded in for top draft picks[ not for want of trying] or received priority picks like the last rebuild 15 -20 years ago. And that is why everyone from president, director and CEO is saying do not expect a quick bounce back, and this rebuild will take time. Patience will be the key.