Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth?

Which team has the better youth?

  • Adelaide

    Votes: 94 22.5%
  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 85 20.3%
  • North

    Votes: 239 57.2%

  • Total voters
    418

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Guardian Hawk

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If it’s larkey, CCJ and Comben vs Lewis, Kosi and jeka

I’m pretty happy with our trio in comparison

Not to mention Zurhaar and Stephenson as our mediums who have burst speed

It might be a bit of fun to do a 'round by round' tracking during 2022 of the 2/3 key forwards from each side. Side by side of their total possessions, marks, contested marks and goals. It will depend how they're utilised of course cos Gunston will be back and CCJ may be used through the ruck in which case Reeves may be the more apt comparison. But at least comparison of the 2 main young KPF's deployed by each side would be interesting to track.

Hopefully it means we can park all the meaningless back and forth in the interim.
 

Guardian Hawk

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Then I claimed that there was a gaping chasm in performance to date between Larkey and Lewis (which at double the goals is undeniable), then hawks fans swooped in to pretend that averages are a better measure of performance, so it wasn’t a gaping chasm but infact they were pretty close.

This has been done to death already but I'd like to explore this with you one last time because I'm still surprised you feel this point is so clear when I don't see total of a solitary stat used in any player comparisons on this site - look at the top players of 2021 thread or any number of other threads, people almost always use averages and almost always use multiple stats instead of only ever considering one (for example, I don't see anyone claiming Tom Mitchell and Jack Macrae as the best mids of 2021).

But anyway, I wanted to propose a hypothetical to understand further. If Larkey were to pick up an injury pre-season and not be able to play any games in 2022 and Lewis were to not improve in 2022 whatsoever but play all games, would Lewis then be the better of the 2 despite Larkey getting no worse and Lewis getting no better? Cos that IS what you are saying (Lewis, at last year's goal average, would surpass Larkey on games and goals). To me, that doesn't make sense - that a gaping chasm between the quality of 2 players can exist and 1 of those two get no worse, the other get no better and suddenly the "chasm' is inversed?

It's too simplistic an analysis for me as countless other examples I have highlighted demonstrates.
 

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Guardian Hawk

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Then I claimed that there was a gaping chasm in performance to date between Larkey and Lewis (which at double the goals is undeniable), then hawks fans swooped in to pretend that averages are a better measure of performance, so it wasn’t a gaping chasm but infact they were pretty close.

Just to clarify even further, Hawthorn fans are NOT simply arguing average is better than total. We have been comparing all aspects of the player - impact, playing style, contested marking, ball winning, defensive game and using all the stats to make those points. Your sole argument for a 'gaping chasm' is total goals kicked and nothing else whatsoever.

This logic would mean you rate Sav Rocca higher than Wayne Carey. I'm sure, however, you don't. In fact, I'm confident you would highlight that Wayne played further up the ground (hence fewer goals) but was more impactful, got more of the ball, more contested ball, took more marks, contested marks, etc ,etc - which would be exactly correct and is the right way to compare 2 players.

Even if you want to compare totals only and ignore averages (which is not usually how people compare players), Larkey has taken 59 contested marks, Lewis has taken 55. Larkey has 15 goal assists, Lewis has 14. Larkey has laid 65 tackles, Lewis has laid 55 tackles, etc, etc. As you can see, nothing else indicates a "gaping chasm", even using totals when Larkey has played 40% more games.

Again, the only argument for a 'gaping chasm' is to ignore playing style (i.e. Lewis typically playing further up the ground), ignore contested marking, marking, defensive impact, score involvements, goal assists, ignore everything and only look at total goals kicked, ala Sav Rocca and Wayne Carey above.

Even your example of the Coleman I found amusing (where total is used over goal average) given the award itself is named after John Coleman, who according to your logic, is not in the top 50 key forwards of all time. However, the truth is his impact, style and averages all highlight he is one of the greats, hence the award being named in his honour. Not to mention the obvious of course, in that the Coleman is not a measure of the who the best player is, it is a measure of who kicked the most goals in the home and away season (which is regularly not the same).

Larkey is the better player but there is more nuance to comparing players than saying he is twice as good and "gaping chasm" by looking solely at career goal tally and ignoring everything else whatsoever.
 

Guardian Hawk

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Actually I believe this all started when I said that north had the best KPF (at present), KPD (at present) and obviously midfield (at present).

Then Dom (apologies if it was someone else) predicted that all of Lewis, Kosi, and Jeka would be better than Larkey.

Then I claimed that there was a gaping chasm in performance to date between Larkey and Lewis (which at double the goals is undeniable), then hawks fans swooped in to pretend that averages are a better measure of performance, so it wasn’t a gaping chasm but infact they were pretty close.

And here we are.

Anyway, it’s all been a bit of fun.

It's a bit silly that I've suggested we all desist with the back and forth (although that pertained to Jeka v Comben, who have barely played) and here I am with 4 posts in a row but its either that or write a 37 page performance report so here we are...

I just thought I'd also clarify the evolution of the argument. It actually started when Psicosis posted a list of the top 10 talls he would draft from these clubs (post #913). He (rightfully) had Larkey at 2 but then Lewis didn't make his top 10 at all. Several posters, including Dom, laughed at the bias of including 0 gamers and the likes of Comben (as well as Larkey where he was) and not including Lewis at all. We suggested that Larkey and Lewis were not so far apart that one should be top 2 and one not even top 10.

IN response, you highlighted that there was a 'gaping chasm' between Larkey and Lewis which is somewhat ironic in retrospect given your argument is based on goals kicked and using that logic, Lewis would slot in right behind Larkey rather than not on the list at all, behind Edwards, Comben, etc - which was the whole point by Hawthorn supporters in the first place.
 
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Sphynx

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I think most North supporters have been fairly realistic with Larkey in here.

He's a Petrie/Dixon style-forward, he's not going to be a top 3-4 KPF of the competition, but someone who will give you around 40 per year consistently.

I'm not really going to comment on the Hawks forwards, as it's a bit irrelevant to the convo if it's a touch and go discussion.

Larkey will just be a cog down the track IMO. He's not going to make or break it.

I think it far more likely we get a major % of our goals out of some mids like Thomas/JHF and the likes of Zurhaar and Stephenson.


Thomas and JHF are likely to be 30+ goal per year players IMO and very few (if any) teams have two of those types.

I think moving forward we will be a team that doesn't really rely on KPF's much at all.
 

Guardian Hawk

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I think most North supporters have been fairly realistic with Larkey in here.

He's a Petrie/Dixon style-forward, he's not going to be a top 3-4 KPF of the competition, but someone who will give you around 40 per year consistently.

I'm not really going to comment on the Hawks forwards, as it's a bit irrelevant to the convo if it's a touch and go discussion.

Larkey will just be a cog down the track IMO. He's not going to make or break it.

I think it far more likely we get a major % of our goals out of some mids like Thomas/JHF and the likes of Zurhaar and Stephenson.


Thomas and JHF are likely to be 30+ goal per year players IMO and very few (if any) teams have two of those types.

I think moving forward we will be a team that doesn't really rely on KPF's much at all.

I agree with most of this and feel it is more important to have multiple avenues to goal anyway, which North's future appear to do so. It is also important how your key forward(s) 'fit in' in terms of what they provide outside of goals in terms of a target, ball to ground, link play, pressure, etc (hence moving on Ben Brown).

With that said, if I was a North supporter I would be hoping for more than 40 goals a year and feel that could be realistic. As a 22/23 year old, Larkey just kicked 40+ in a spoon side. More significantly, he kicked 31 goals in his last 12 games (basically half a season) when the side was more competitive. Sure, it may have been half a season 'out of the box' or when he was basically the only target but to achieve that at his age in that side would suggest that regularly kicking 50 goals a year should/could be realistic. Even if he is 'just' a Petrie type, what will separate him (at least in terms of goals kicked) is his ridiculous accuracy. he can kick 50+ from the same number of opportunities as someone like Petrie, who would end up with 40.
 

Sphynx

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I agree with most of this and feel it is more important to have multiple avenues to goal anyway, which North's future appear to do so. It is also important how your key forward(s) 'fit in' in terms of what they provide outside of goals in terms of a target, ball to ground, link play, pressure, etc (hence moving on Ben Brown).

With that said, if I was a North supporter I would be hoping for more than 40 goals a year and feel that could be realistic. As a 22/23 year old, Larkey just kicked 40+ in a spoon side. More significantly, he kicked 31 goals in his last 12 games (basically half a season) when the side was more competitive. Sure, it may have been half a season 'out of the box' or when he was basically the only target but to achieve that at his age in that side would suggest that regularly kicking 50 goals a year should/could be realistic. Even if he is 'just' a Petrie type, what will separate him (at least in terms of goals kicked) is his ridiculous accuracy. he can kick 50+ from the same number of opportunities as someone like Petrie, who would end up with 40.

As teams get better they tend to have more even goals spreads, generally at the expense of the key forwards these days.

Look at Jack Riewoldt over time.

Fritsch was Melbournes leading goal kicker, Naughton was only around the 40 goal mark etc.

40 goals from KPF is nothing to be sneezed at if you have a bunch of others kicking 20+
 

Guardian Hawk

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Yet you lost to us.

So? Hawthorn use to lose to Richmond when we were three-peating and they were missing finals.

Melbourne also lost to Collingwood this year - the kind of result that occurs every season (i.e. premier losing to lowly team).

A single head to head result is not reflective of a team's position. A 23 round ladder is - where Hawthorn approximately doubled North's output and has finished ahead every year since 2007.

Not that I condone the phrasing used by the poster you were quoting either.

Be interesting to see what happens in 2022 (I'm tipping some improvement from North).
 

Golumless

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So? Hawthorn use to lose to Richmond when we were three-peating and they were missing finals.

Melbourne also lost to Collingwood this year - the kind of result that occurs every season (i.e. premier losing to lowly team).

A single head to head result is not reflective of a team's position. A 23 round ladder is - where Hawthorn approximately doubled North's output and has finished ahead every year since 2007.

Not that I condone the phrasing used by the poster you were quoting either.

Be interesting to see what happens in 2022 (I'm tipping some improvement from North).

Yes it does, and is why Adelaide should be seen as premiership favourites entering 2022.
 

the big lebowski

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This has been done to death already but I'd like to explore this with you one last time because I'm still surprised you feel this point is so clear when I don't see total of a solitary stat used in any player comparisons on this site - look at the top players of 2021 thread or any number of other threads, people almost always use averages and almost always use multiple stats instead of only ever considering one (for example, I don't see anyone claiming Tom Mitchell and Jack Macrae as the best mids of 2021).

Hello Guardian Hawk

I hope you have had a good day and thank you for your contribution to this topic.

Whilst, generally speaking i find goals as a great way to compare two young key forwards first 5 seasons, here are some other stats that highlight the gaping chasm in Larkey's return over 5 years compared to Lewis. You might like to show others but it's a good start.

Games Goals Disposals Marks Tackles

Larkey 51 82 435 171 66


Lewis 36 47 342 140 55

Larkey's +41.6% +74.5% +27.1% +22.1% +20.0%
Gaping
Chasm

As you rightly point out, Lewis usually plays up the field compared to Larkey so Larkey almost doubling his goals and Lewis being closer in disposals probably reflects this. Though Larkey has spent a fair amount of time in the ruck, hitouts 86 vs 67. Disposal % is also 72% vs 68% in Larkey's favour.

Gist is, he is literally ahead in very metric possible over the first 5 years of his career, and by a margin that represents a gaping chasm in output in my view. The only metric that Lewis wins is game's missed through injury.

Obviously past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.


But anyway, I wanted to propose a hypothetical to understand further. If Larkey were to pick up an injury pre-season and not be able to play any games in 2022 and Lewis were to not improve in 2022 whatsoever but play all games, would Lewis then be the better of the 2 despite Larkey getting no worse and Lewis getting no better? Cos that IS what you are saying (Lewis, at last year's goal average, would surpass Larkey on games and goals). To me, that doesn't make sense - that a gaping chasm between the quality of 2 players can exist and 1 of those two get no worse, the other get no better and suddenly the "chasm' is inversed?

Well it wouldn't inverse (if i understand you correctly), but if Lewis managed 35 more goals, 93 more kicks, 31 more marks, and 11 more tackles (simply looking at the stats i've used), then he would have produced exactly equal to Larkey over 6 years and the gaping chasm would have reduced to nothing. That's really just simple maths though.


It's too simplistic an analysis for me as countless other examples I have highlighted demonstrates.

Well stats are a function of output, so whilst i agree sometimes you need to look deeper than stats, they are pretty compelling in this case.

But let me re-iterate some non stat points that i believe also fall into the gaping chasm area

1: Lewis has never played more than 14 games in a season. So unless you prefer guys to not play, that's not great. If he can play 22 games in 2022, that's a great outcome regardless of stats imo.

2: During the 5 years, North has never finished above the hawks. So if you presume it's easier being a young key forward in a good team, coached by the master, compared to 3 coaches and barely a football team at times, then larkey has probably overachieved.

3: For the last 2 years, Larkey has literally got the best defender each week. Has Lewis?

4: Lewis is yet to lead a forward line, one out for a full year. Can he even do that? Can he play as the deep forward with the only tall help from say, Ben Mcevoy? Don't know but the jury is out. He formed a dangerous combo with Kosi this year (when he played), Larkey's help came from Tom campbell or Tristan Xerri (puke emoji).

To summarise (again), it's just not realistic to argue anything but a massive outperformance to Larkey over the first 5 years of their career. call it a gaping chasm, a shitload of difference, or just a massive win to Larkey, but it's there and it doesn't take bias to see.
 

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buttox

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Just to clarify even further, Hawthorn fans are NOT simply arguing average is better than total. We have been comparing all aspects of the player - impact, playing style, contested marking, ball winning, defensive game and using all the stats to make those points. Your sole argument for a 'gaping chasm' is total goals kicked and nothing else whatsoever.

This logic would mean you rate Sav Rocca higher than Wayne Carey. I'm sure, however, you don't. In fact, I'm confident you would highlight that Wayne played further up the ground (hence fewer goals) but was more impactful, got more of the ball, more contested ball, took more marks, contested marks, etc ,etc - which would be exactly correct and is the right way to compare 2 players.

Even if you want to compare totals only and ignore averages (which is not usually how people compare players), Larkey has taken 59 contested marks, Lewis has taken 55. Larkey has 15 goal assists, Lewis has 14. Larkey has laid 65 tackles, Lewis has laid 55 tackles, etc, etc. As you can see, nothing else indicates a "gaping chasm", even using totals when Larkey has played 40% more games.

Again, the only argument for a 'gaping chasm' is to ignore playing style (i.e. Lewis typically playing further up the ground), ignore contested marking, marking, defensive impact, score involvements, goal assists, ignore everything and only look at total goals kicked, ala Sav Rocca and Wayne Carey above.

Even your example of the Coleman I found amusing (where total is used over goal average) given the award itself is named after John Coleman, who according to your logic, is not in the top 50 key forwards of all time. However, the truth is his impact, style and averages all highlight he is one of the greats, hence the award being named in his honour. Not to mention the obvious of course, in that the Coleman is not a measure of the who the best player is, it is a measure of who kicked the most goals in the home and away season (which is regularly not the same).

Larkey is the better player but there is more nuance to comparing players than saying he is twice as good and "gaping chasm" by looking solely at career goal tally and ignoring everything else whatsoever.
I get what you are saying.
But using averages hides the fact Lewis cant get on the park.
When judging overall talent resilience has to come into it.
For me that is were there is a gaping chasm.
For me (opinion only) kicking 40+ goals in a year is elite. For any age bracket.
Lets let Lewis kick 30 in a year before he is mentioned in the same breath.
Lewis looks a decent young talent. But he is similar to Comben at our club. He misses a lot of games.
Hawks defenders are close to the best young group in the league. But other than ruck they need work on every other line.
 
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I get what you are saying.
But using averages hides the fact Lewis cant get on the park.
When judging overall talent resilience has to come into it.
For me that is were there is a gaping chasm.
For me (opinion only) kicking 40+ goals in a year is elite. For any age bracket.
Lets let Lewis kick 30 in a year before he is mentioned in the same breath.
Lewis looks a decent young talent. But he is similar to Comben at our club. He misses a lot of games.
Hawks defenders are close to the best young group in the league. But other than ruck they need work on every other line.
Lewis can get on the park though.

He had a shoulder reco leading into 2020, and got knocked out with a stray uppercut. Could've happened to anyone.
 

buttox

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Lewis can get on the park though.

He had a shoulder reco leading into 2020, and got knocked out with a stray uppercut. Could've happened to anyone.
1642144758413.png

vs
1642144817580.png

The reasons for injuries are immaterial.
Young blokes find crazy ways to get injured. They need to be looked at as a whole.
Lewis wont kick 40 goals a season until he starts playing more games.
He might be capable of that IDK.
But the games missed has been his major negative so far in his career.
His best year has been 63% of games played.
 
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View attachment 1310861
vs
View attachment 1310862
The reasons for injuries are immaterial.
Young blokes find crazy ways to get injured. They need to be looked at as a whole.
Lewis wont kick 40 goals a season until he starts playing more games.
He might be capable of that IDK.
But the games missed has been his major negative so far in his career.
His best year has been 63% of games played.
Yeah, he struggled with confidence after the reco in 2020. Almost looked like he refused to tackle.

Kosi knocking him out wasn't great, but he had his confidence back in his marking in 2021.
 

buttox

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Yeah, he struggled with confidence after the reco in 2020. Almost looked like he refused to tackle.

Kosi knocking him out wasn't great, but he had his confidence back in his marking in 2021.
He is just taking normal KPF time to develop. I doubt he is a dud.
Larkey has got to 40 goals relatively early in his career. And for this reason is tracking a bit in front of Lewis.
The counter argument would be that Lewis will improve with continuity.
If he plays 22 games this year I would bet his best games are the last 4.
 

buttox

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Coaches award best 10 players in the comp.

1642149600318.png


AFL Rankings.
1642149700573.png


I love Thomas. But he has a long way to go to be a top 5 player in the comp.
He is currently ranked 88.
 

Freomaniac

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Adelaide and North will play off in a premiership in 5 years time.

Adelaide because of Darren Burgess; North because i admire their list build and recruiting.
I know a lot can happen in 5 years time. But what you just posted isnt impossible.

I have seen worse teams in Adelaide's and norths spot make finals in 3 or 4 seasons
 

JaegarTime

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The narrative in here has changed so much lmao. One moment people are saying it’s based on talent/potential but then the next minute they’re saying it’s based on stats and proven track record.

If North supporters are happy enough saying Larkey over Lewis due to his +.3 ave goals a game then surely you can’t argue against those saying Reeves (who has actual AFL stats) over Edwards (yet to debut). That’s just picking and choosing to suit your narrative.

McKay is one of the best KFD’s in the comp? Loooool, going a bit early? I’d have him sure but that is insanely overrating him. Didn’t Kosi kick 6 on him in a practice match? (Kosi’s first or second game as a forward against opposition).

Choose which you’re rating them on. Is is talent or proven game time? If it’s stats then players that haven’t debuted yet shouldn’t even be mentioned in that ridiculous bias ‘redraft’ that was posted in here.

All 3 clubs have some really exciting youth I really rate and am personally really excited to watch over the coming couple of years. Reading this thread has made it clear that everyone has rose coloured glasses for their team.

If I was to rate the three teams in regards to who has the ‘best’ youth then it’s simply splitting into the following:

Hawthorn - #1 defensive youth
North - #1 midfield youth
Crows - #1 forward youth
 

Kangas_11

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If North supporters are happy enough saying Larkey over Lewis due to his +.3 ave goals a game then surely you can’t argue against those saying Reeves (who has actual AFL stats) over Edwards (yet to debut). That’s just picking and choosing to suit your narrative.
Weird argument.

Lewis and Larkey were drafted in the same year, Lewis has just suffered injuries so he's played less games. Common sense would indicate that they both have the same scope for growth or "potential" moving forward, but Larkey has been better so far.

Meanwhile Reeves is a 23 year old 5-gamer vs 19 year old Edwards. To compare them on stats would be idiotic, because no one is expecting Edwards to come in immediately ahead of Goldstein, especially since rucks take a while to get AFL ready.

The comparison you're making is the equivalent of saying you'd rate Conor Nash over Jason Horne-Francis because he "has actual AFL stats".