Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth?

[WWSD]

Other than in goals kicked

Correct me if I’m wrong but North’s young forwards have played more than twice as many games as the Hawks forwards. Of course it’s expected that North will have more goals from it’s younger forwards.

North Melbourne
Zurhaar (23) 64 games
Larkey (23) 51 games
Stephenson (22) 73 games
Thomas (21) 47 games
Mahony (21) 28 games
Comben (20) 1 game
264 games

Hawthorn
Lewis (23) 36 games
Koschitzke (21) 20 games
Moore (22) 30 games
Brockman (19) 11 games
Jeka (20) 4 games
Butler (19) -
101 games

Odds are Hawthorn will average more goals per game than North Melbourne again this year. lol

 

[Blackhawk42]

I don't believe it's going to answer any questions, but I cannot wait for Hawthorn vs North Melbourne in round 1.

Early season wins are fun to bank, but long term don't always tell a complete picture (Mebourne scraping past Fremantle and Adelaide defeating Geelong in 2021 just an example).

I'm just anticipating a fast, fierce game of footy between two young sides who will have young players wanting to prove that their future is the brightest.
Plus there is a decent chance we might see JHF vs Josh Ward in their debut games.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Correct me if I’m wrong but North’s young forwards have played more than twice as many games as the Hawks forwards. Of course it’s expected that North will have more goals from it’s younger forwards.

North Melbourne
Zurhaar (23) 64 games
Larkey (23) 51 games
Stephenson (22) 73 games
Thomas (21) 47 games
Mahony (21) 28 games
Comben (20) 1 game
264 games

Hawthorn
Lewis (23) 36 games
Koschitzke (21) 20 games
Moore (22) 30 games
Brockman (19) 11 games
Jeka (20) 4 games
Butler (19) -
101 games

Odds are Hawthorn will average more goals per game than North Melbourne again this year. lol

No mate, don’t use logic.

the big lebowski wants us all to know that Tim O’Brien is better than Larkey because he’s kicked more goals.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

North fans arguing about their list compared to hawthorn remind me of Richmond in 2004.

Sure, the tigers ended up doing something 15 years later, but the hawks won 4 before that happened.

Maybe the same thing will happen again

 

[Psicosis]

Forwardlines are pretty even as i said and that's my opinion on the youth and talent.

Yeah nah.

There is a significant gap in forward lines IMO. A lot of your forwards are very speculative. That gap may close if the likes of Jeka, Brockman, Mitchell, Butler come on. However, we could argue the same for the backs if Goater, Perez, McGuinness, Bergman come one - it just doesn't make sense.

Hawks defense >>> Norths defense
Norths midfield >>>>>>>>>> Hawks midfield
Norths forwards >>> Hawks forwards

 

[VinnieB]

Correct me if I’m wrong but North’s young forwards have played more than twice as many games as the Hawks forwards. Of course it’s expected that North will have more goals from it’s younger forwards.

North Melbourne
Zurhaar (23) 64 games
Larkey (23) 51 games
Stephenson (22) 73 games
Thomas (21) 47 games
Mahony (21) 28 games
Comben (20) 1 game
264 games

Hawthorn
Lewis (23) 36 games
Koschitzke (21) 20 games
Moore (22) 30 games
Brockman (19) 11 games
Jeka (20) 4 games
Butler (19) -
101 games

Odds are Hawthorn will average more goals per game than North Melbourne again this year. lol

When I look at this, personally I'm not so sure any of those Hawks listed will match Zurhaar, Larkey, Thomas, Stephenson even after another 20 games.
Larkey was basically a lone hand (KPP) in a forward line of a team who have been poor the past 2 seasons.
Zurhaar, while inconsistent, is a game changer, as long as he can keep up the 2nd half of the year performance. Thomas has more skill than probably anyone on the Hawk's list. Far more exciting and more upside IMO

 

[Sphynx]

Im not going to comment on the forward lines vs forward lines, I've always thought its a bit of a stupid argument anyway.

The modern game has very much moved away from the bulk of goals coming from 2-3 players.

Look at Melbourne as a good example, their best and most damaging forward is a medium forward who kicked 47 goals in the regular season.


I will say, I think Larkey is likely going to probably push on to another level with Comben fit and CCJ down there. 50+ goals is probably a realistic expectation.

He has been playing a lone hand, one out for the best part of 18 months.

I think Zurhaar, Stephenson and Thomas all have a fair bit of improvement to come. JHF an unknown across half forward also.

 

[Nutjob]

North fans arguing about their list compared to hawthorn remind me of Richmond in 2004.

Sure, the tigers ended up doing something 15 years later, but the hawks won 4 before that happened.

Maybe the same thing will happen again

I guess the difference is that Richmond murdered their picks and North are nailing theirs.


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[Mitchell Madness]

I guess the difference is that Richmond murdered their picks and North are nailing theirs.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

North haven't done anything yet. They look promising, but so did Richmond up until midway through the 2005 season

 

[Nutjob]

North haven't done anything yet. They look promising, but so did Richmond up until midway through the 2005 season

I never said we have done anything, but our kids have shown a lot more than what a majority of Richmond’s kids did in that period.

The drafting over that period was diabolical, in particular the Deledio draft. They had 5 top 20 players and nailed 1, with Tambling, Meyer, Pattinson and Polo all flops. The year before they picked Alex Gilmour with their first pick. The following year in 2005 they picked Oakley-Nicholls. It would have to be close to the worst 3 year period of drafting there has ever been.

There may have been a lot of hype back then over all those picks, but I would hardly say they showed a lot of promise. Obviously there is Deledio and Polo looked good early. Apart from that they all showed next to nothing at the top level. Some might say Tambling showed signs, but for where he was picked and what Richmond passed on to get him, it was a train wreck.


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[the big lebowski]

Do you just not understand how to interpret statistics? Your youngsters are getting more goals because your mids have no one else to kick too, both Hawks and even more so crows kicked to more experienced player/s more often, so you're obviously going to have a higher total. I'm not sure why you're talking about it like a brag when it's just how our current list profiles shake out. That's not even to point out that both our teams kicked more goals than yours anyway, Crows by 20 and Hawks by 29.

I do know how to interpret statistics. I weigh up multiple considerations. You’ve clearly decided to focus on one.

Opportunity. Ie Larkey is the only key forward at north so it’s eqsier to kick more goals.

Though you say “both hawks and even more so crows”, please tell me the senior hawks forwards taking opportunities from Lewis and Kozi?

But back to Larkey, is it easier to get Harris Andrews on you or Marcus Adams? May or Lever? Being he one out KPF actually makes it harder than having an established older no 1 key forward taking the heat of you and the no 1 Key defender.

Another way to interpret stats is to look at the team as a whole. North weren’t an afl standard football team for half the year. Poor ball movement and terrible delivery inside 50. How do you adjust for that? As you’ve pointed out, despite all our young forwards kicking more goals than the crows last year, overall the crows kicked more goals than us as did the hawks. That re-inforces that the specific young players at North outperformed I would have thought.

 

[the big lebowski]

A few weird takes here.

So you actually think that’s a reasonable measure for indicating for future performance?

That’s absurd. I thought you were taking the piss.

Do I think that past performance in a young forwards career is a good predictor for future performance?

Umm yes.

It’s not the only thing to go off, take for example Charlie Comben. But Larkey has played one out KPF for a full year and kicked 40 goals. That is a strong indicator that he is a good player.

Thilthorpe as I’ve stated multiple times is a very good young prospect. He was my pick of the 2020 draft.

It’s likely that he turns into the best key forward of the 3 lists. But not certain. If Larkey continues his trajectory and kicks 50-60 goals a season for the next 7 years, how much better will Thilthorpe be? Maybe he turns into a 70-80 goal key forward, maybe he doesn’t.

Putting that direct comparison aside, I don’t see many young crow forwards to get excited about. Other than Rachele, who is literally a direct comparison with JHF. Maybe Fogarty can accelerate his growth, but at this stage he’s a poor mans Zurhaar.

 

[the big lebowski]

Correct me if I’m wrong but North’s young forwards have played more than twice as many games as the Hawks forwards. Of course it’s expected that North will have more goals from it’s younger forwards.

North Melbourne
Zurhaar (23) 64 games
Larkey (23) 51 games
Stephenson (22) 73 games
Thomas (21) 47 games
Mahony (21) 28 games
Comben (20) 1 game
264 games

Hawthorn
Lewis (23) 36 games
Koschitzke (21) 20 games
Moore (22) 30 games
Brockman (19) 11 games
Jeka (20) 4 games
Butler (19) -
101 games

Odds are Hawthorn will average more goals per game than North Melbourne again this year. lol

lol alright

Goal averages 2021

Lewis 1.57
Kozi 1.35
Moore 1.35
Brockman 0.91

Larkey 1.91
Bull 1.55
CCJ 1.38
Thomas 1.14
Sleevo 0.89

 

[BIGHAWK23]

lol alright

Goal averages 2021

Lewis 1.57
Kozi 1.35
Moore 1.35
Brockman 0.91

Larkey 1.91
Bull 1.55
CCJ 1.38
Thomas 1.14
Sleevo 0.89

Played double the games

Weird flex

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

lol alright

Goal averages 2021

Lewis 1.57
Kozi 1.35
Moore 1.35
Brockman 0.91

Larkey 1.91
Bull 1.55
CCJ 1.38
Thomas 1.14
Sleevo 0.89

The key difference is that you’ve named North’s entire forward line while for Hawthorn you are ignoring Breust.

 

[hawkman]

Played double the games

Weird flex

It is as those North players were the only ones to kick 10+ goals last year. Adelaide had 9, Hawthorn 10. Most teams are in the 9-13 range

North had almost complete reliance of those players to kick goals.

 

[hawkman]

The key difference is that you’ve named North’s entire forward line while for Hawthorn you are ignoring Breust.

And McEvoy and Wingard and O'Brien who all played forward last year. Means opportunities were spread around while North had those 4

 

[the big lebowski]

The key difference is that you’ve named North’s entire forward line while for Hawthorn you are ignoring Breust.

It is as those North players were the only ones to kick 10+ goals last year. Adelaide had 9, Hawthorn 10. Most teams are in the 9-13 range

North had almost complete reliance of those players to kick goals.

Yes.

That’s kind of the point. In a young team, Norths forward line is by far its youngest line. Larkey and Zurhaar are the oldest at 23.

They had very little help from any older players. Including no genuine second tall forward.

This is a discussion on young talent. Why would I mention Bruest?

 

[BIGHAWK23]

It is as those North players were the only ones to kick 10+ goals last year. Adelaide had 9, Hawthorn 10. Most teams are in the 9-13 range

North had almost complete reliance of those players to kick goals.

I was agreeing with you

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yes.

That’s kind of the point. In a young team, Norths forward line is by far its youngest line. Larkey and Zurhaar are the oldest at 23.

They had very little help from any older players. Including no genuine second tall forward.

This is a discussion on young talent. Why would I mention Bruest?

Shouldn’t you apply a caveat that Hawthorn’s young forwards goal averages are influenced by the fact that the best forward of both sides has a large amount of ball directed to him?

 

[hawkman]

Shouldn’t you apply a caveat that Hawthorn’s young forwards goal averages are influenced by the fact that the best forward of both sides has a large amount of ball directed to him?

Adelaide as well with Walker and McAdam

 

[the big lebowski]

Shouldn’t you apply a caveat that Hawthorn’s young forwards goal averages are influenced by the fact that the best forward of both sides has a large amount of ball directed to him?

Not really. Larkey and Kozi basically took the same amount of marks inside 50. Bruest just a few more than Thomas and Stephenson.

The amount of caveats that you Hawks fans want to employ.

Total goals are irrelevant, averages are better

Averages don’t count because of older players

But they haven’t played as many games

But we kicked more goals overalll

Blah blah blah

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Not really. Larkey and Kozi basically took the same amount of marks inside 50. Bruest just a few more than Thomas and Stephenson.

The amount of caveats that you Hawks fans want to employ.

Total goals are irrelevant, averages are better

Averages don’t count because of older players

But they haven’t played as many games

But we kicked more goals overalll

Blah blah blah

North Fans are the caveat kings

Jog on

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not really. Larkey and Kozi basically took the same amount of marks inside 50. Bruest just a few more than Thomas and Stephenson.

The amount of caveats that you Hawks fans want to employ.

Total goals are irrelevant, averages are better

Averages don’t count because of older players

But they haven’t played as many games

But we kicked more goals overalll

Blah blah blah

Sorry for trying to provide context to the stats.

 

[the big lebowski]

Sorry for trying to provide context to the stats.

I just can’t see a basis for picking hawks or crows forwards over north at this point.

Enlighten me.