Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth?

[Soggy2112]

Yes, which is why I find age cut offs like this kinda funny and somewhat futile (as you can use it to paint whatever picture you like).

I mean, if were to do this side when football is next played in 2022, all of a sudden Larkey, Zurhaar, Simpkin, McKay, etc (who are all 24 next year except McKay who is 24 this year) are out of the side and North look quite weak (whereas Hawthorn's promising young players - Jiath, Day, Worpel, DGB, Moore, etc are all still there).

Does that mean North actually have weaker youth next year? Of course not. Just as Adelaide don't necessarily now. IT's just that the promising youth at each club are at slightly different stages of their career.

100%, Cook and Berry have shown plenty of signs to indicate that they’ll be every bit as good as those players at 21.

That side mostly just suggests that North started their rebuild 2-3 years ahead of Adelaide (Hawks start time for its rebuild is a bit murky IMO).

 

[hawkman]

100%, Cook and Berry have shown plenty of signs to indicate that they’ll be every bit as good as those players at 21.

That side mostly just suggests that North started their rebuild 2-3 years ahead of Adelaide (Hawks start time for its rebuild is a bit murky IMO).

Either end of 2019 when we actually started using good draft picks or end of 2020 when we actually had our first real cleanout of players on the list

 

[Jack Green]

Either end of 2019 when we actually started using good draft picks or end of 2020 when we actually had our first real cleanout of players on the list

It is a bit murky - Athough we were into July of 2020 and against the Giants, Hawthorn put out a side just below 28 years of age at 27 and 314 days.That is not a rebuilding side!!

I think if we said Hawthorn was legitimately next year into the second year of their rebuild there would be few arguments

 

[the big lebowski]

Alternate fact, because as we’ve already shown Lewis isn’t. He’s just not played the same amount of games.

I mean Mitch Lewis has a career high of 3 goals in a game.

 

[Kangas_11]

Yes, which is why I find age cut offs like this kinda funny and somewhat futile (as you can use it to paint whatever picture you like).

I mean, if were to do this side when football is next played in 2022, all of a sudden Larkey, Zurhaar, Simpkin, McKay, etc (who are all 24 next year except McKay who is 24 this year) are out of the side and North look quite weak (whereas Hawthorn's promising young players - Jiath, Day, Worpel, DGB, Moore, etc are all still there).

Does that mean North actually have weaker youth next year? Of course not. Just as Adelaide don't necessarily now. IT's just that the promising youth at each club are at slightly different stages of their career.

True, I guess a cutoff needs to be somewhere for these teams, however it usually ends up being skewed in favour of the posters team.

It's a decent exercise to compare teams though.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

I mean Mitch Lewis has a career high of 3 goals in a game.

Yes, but Lewis kicked a goal in every game this season. Whereas Larkey was held goalless 4 times (similarly, Larkey failed to take a single contested mark 7 times this season whilst Lewis took contested marks in every game).

Lewis appears to contribute similarly week in week out whilst Larkey has more big games but also more anonymous games.

Anyway, unlike others, I'm happy to concede that I think Larkey has shown more to date. Hopefully Lewis can stay injury free and take another step forward next season (between games 35-50+) as Larkey did this year.

 

[Psicosis]

Yes, which is why I find age cut offs like this kinda funny and somewhat futile (as you can use it to paint whatever picture you like).

I mean, if were to do this side when football is next played in 2022, all of a sudden Larkey, Zurhaar, Simpkin, McKay, etc (who are all 24 next year except McKay who is 24 this year) are out of the side and North look quite weak (whereas Hawthorn's promising young players - Jiath, Day, Worpel, DGB, Moore, etc are all still there).

Does that mean North actually have weaker youth next year? Of course not. Just as Adelaide don't necessarily now. IT's just that the promising youth at each club are at slightly different stages of their career.

If you have a preferable age cut off in regards to defining “youth”, feel free to share your best 22.

I went with 23 & under as it’s what I personally consider “youth”.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

If you have a preferable age cut off in regards to defining “youth”, feel free to share your best 22.

I went with 23 & under as it’s what I personally consider “youth”.

I don't have a preference- nothing wrong per se with the cut off you chose.

Just highlighted that cut offs in general can paint all sorts of pictures without telling the full story - particularly for teams at different stages of their rebuild. Obviously players don't stop contributing or lose their potential just because their birthday ticks over.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

If you have a preferable age cut off in regards to defining “youth”, feel free to share your best 22.

I went with 23 & under as it’s what I personally consider “youth”.

Almost think 23 is a year too old tbh mate.

North are coming back further than the Crows and Hawthorn in your rebuild, but at this stage I would take your kids over Hawthorn or The Crows, which is a testament to your recruiters.

 

[Soggy2112]

If you have a preferable age cut off in regards to defining “youth”, feel free to share your best 22.

I went with 23 & under as it’s what I personally consider “youth”.

I think a more appropriate measure would be to look at when you could reasonably expect to be pushing for a flag, and then work backwards to see what players on your list would still likely be in their prime.

Looking at 6-8 years from the start of a rebuild being the usual timeline if successful (based on recent premiership winning sides who have come from a rebuild). I’d then consider 2025 being the earliest that Adelaide could expect to win a flag.

Current established best 22 players who would still be in their prime at that point are (age in brackets):

Jones (25)
Keays (28)
Crouch (30)
Thilthorpe (23)
McHenry (25)
Schoenberg (24)
Milera (28)
Fogarty (26)
Doedee (28)
Butts (26)
O’Brien (30)

Other players who have shown promise, but are yet to establish themselves:

McAsey (24)
Pedlar (23)
Cook (23)
Berry (23)
Murray (25)
Sholl (25)

Those would be the key players by which I’d be judging Adelaide’s youth. Obviously there are others who may come good but these would be the ones I’d predict with some confidence will make it.

 

[Liam Boy]

*Strachan/Reeves/Xerri - Toss of a coin between these three, don't think anyone could rationally separate them at this stage.
** Have included all clubs early 2021 picks as we assume that they will be high end players in time.

Reeves and Xerri rucked against each other in the VFL, Reeves won it comfortably. He's the standout in that trio. He's a better mark, more skilled with his tap work and he's one of the tallest players in the league. Reeves would've played more footy towards the end of the year, but he got injured and then Hawthorn wanted to maximise their trade return on Ceglar.

 

[Psicosis]

Reeves and Xerri rucked against each other in the VFL, Reeves won it comfortably. He's the standout in that trio. He's a better mark, more skilled with his tap work and he's one of the tallest players in the league. Reeves would've played more footy towards the end of the year, but he got injured and then Hawthorn wanted to maximise their trade return on Ceglar.

Strachan also gave Goldstein a big old bath at AFL level.

 

[Soggy2112]

Strachan also gave Goldstein a big old bath at AFL level.

Very small sample size but I’d have Strachan ahead of Reeves purely on how well he performed against Gawn/Jackson and Goldy.

 

[Liam Boy]

Very small sample size but I’d have Strachan ahead of Reeves purely on how well he performed against Gawn/Jackson and Goldy.

Reeves did very well against Gawn and Jackson, made a big difference in the drawn game, especially during the last quarter.

 

[Soggy2112]

Reeves did very well against Gawn and Jackson, made a big difference in the drawn game, especially during the last quarter.

fair enough, I didn’t actually see that game, only saw the others.

 

[Jibroni]

Out of the three Adelaide is closer to finals.

 

[Oscarman]

Isn't the answer to this question always North?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It's fun to apply the "Tom Mitchell" logic to Larkey and look at his stats after the bye. Particularly considering that prior to the bye, with a new game plan North were belted most games.

After the bye, Larkey averaged 2.6 goals a game (including kicking 7 on Weitering), putting him behind only McKay, Franklin and Walker this season.

This is despite playing as the only KPF most weeks, which shouldn't be the case next year with CCJ and a fit Comben (hopefully).

Lewis could definitely improve next season, but he hasnt shown consistent form like Larkey has recently. Hopefully he gets a good run and can show good form, but he's behind Larkey for sure right now.

2.6? Lewis did that in 2019 or there abouts, was i think like 2.3 or 2.4 with about 3.5 contested marks per game.

 

[Psicosis]

My 23&Under Best 22 for all three sides. Shows the split of where the talent is across the field.

FB - Jiath - McKay - Jones
CHB - Day - Butts - Scrimshaw
C - Schoenberg - Simpkin - Powell
FOL - *KS/NR/TX - Davies-Uniacke - Thomas
HF - Stephenson - Thilthorpe** - Fogarty
FF - Moore - Larkey - Zurhaar

IC - Sholl - Worpel - Granger-Barrass** - Phillips**

*Strachan/Reeves/Xerri - Toss of a coin between these three, don't think anyone could rationally separate them at this stage.
** Have included all clubs early 2021 picks as we assume that they will be high end players in time.

North - 9 Players
Adelaide - 6 Players
Hawthorn - 6 Players

What’s your 22 magic Dominic03 ?!

 

[Dewyyyyy]

What’s your 22 magic Dominic03 ?!

A team without Fogarty in it..

 

[Dewyyyyy]

My 23&Under Best 22 for all three sides. Shows the split of where the talent is across the field.

FB - Jiath - McKay - Jones
CHB - Day - Butts - Scrimshaw
C - Schoenberg - Simpkin - Powell
FOL - *KS/NR/TX - Davies-Uniacke - Thomas
HF - Stephenson - Thilthorpe** - Fogarty
FF - Moore - Larkey - Zurhaar

IC - Sholl - Worpel - Granger-Barrass** - Phillips**

*Strachan/Reeves/Xerri - Toss of a coin between these three, don't think anyone could rationally separate them at this stage.
** Have included all clubs early 2021 picks as we assume that they will be high end players in time.

North - 9 Players
Adelaide - 6 Players
Hawthorn - 6 Players

Only change here is, Ned Reeves is 100% the ruck. Fogarty out for Lewis and Moore to a flank, Lewis to the pocket as the third tall.

Maybe some others, but i cbf atm.

 

[nelk boys]

What’s your 22 magic Dominic03 ?!

Bramble I dare say would be better on the wing than Powell at the present.

Yet this will probably change in 2 years when Powell puts on some weight.

I'm just interested in how Phillips, Simpkin, Powell, LDU, Thomas, JHF, Stephenson, Anderson are all going to fit......Sure JHF and Stephenson may play HFF, but all of these players have egos, going to be hard for them to accept 40-20% midfield time a game just to get a rotation in. It is a good problem however.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Bramble I dare say would be better on the wing than Powell at the present.

Yet this will probably change in 2 years when Powell puts on some weight.

I'm just interested in how Phillips, Simpkin, Powell, LDU, Thomas, JHF, Stephenson, Anderson are all going to fit......Sure JHF and Stephenson may play HFF, but all of these players have egos, going to be hard for them to accept 40-20% midfield time a game just to get a rotation in. It is a good problem however.

Bramble is eligible? if so yes he's better atm.

 

[Davo-27]

My 23&Under Best 22 for all three sides. Shows the split of where the talent is across the field.

FB - Jiath - McKay - Jones
CHB - Day - Butts - Scrimshaw
C - Schoenberg - Simpkin - Powell
FOL - *KS/NR/TX - Davies-Uniacke - Thomas
HF - Stephenson - Thilthorpe** - Fogarty
FF - Moore - Larkey - Zurhaar

IC - Sholl - Worpel - Granger-Barrass** - Phillips**

*Strachan/Reeves/Xerri - Toss of a coin between these three, don't think anyone could rationally separate them at this stage.
** Have included all clubs early 2021 picks as we assume that they will be high end players in time.

North - 9 Players
Adelaide - 6 Players
Hawthorn - 6 Players

i would make a few small changes to the team

FB - Jiath - McKay - Sholl
CHB - Day - Butts - Scrimshaw
C - Schoenberg - Thomas - Bramble
R - Reeves - Simpkin - Powell
HF - Stephenson - Koschitzke - Moore
F - Thilthorpe - Larkey - Zurhaar

IC - Davies-Uniacke - Grainger-Barrass - Phillips - Worpel

unlucky players(EMER) Murphy, Hamill, Lewis, Brockman

changes - Reeves is the best young ruck imo, Koschitzke, Bramble, Brockman and Lewis not mentioned in last group was a bit ordinary imo, theres some ok Adelaide youngsters, but not as many as you might think from just having a quick look for this quick exercise and you pretty much nailed the North part of the exercise.

11 - Hawthorn
9 - North Melb
6 - Adelaide (with a few more average than developing quality imo)

 

[Psicosis]

Only change here is, Ned Reeves is 100% the ruck. Fogarty out for Lewis and Moore to a flank, Lewis to the pocket as the third tall.

Maybe some others, but i cbf atm.

Love your work Dommy.