Which teams will be making up the numbers in 2019

Which teams can't (not wont) make the 8 in 2019

  • Carlton

    Votes: 69 78.4%
  • Gold Coast

    Votes: 71 80.7%
  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 13 14.8%
  • North Melbourne

    Votes: 23 26.1%
  • Bulldogs

    Votes: 27 30.7%
  • Fremantle

    Votes: 40 45.5%
  • Brisbane

    Votes: 27 30.7%
  • Essendon

    Votes: 14 15.9%
  • St Kilda

    Votes: 59 67.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 10 11.4%

  • Total voters
    88

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col44

All Australian
Oct 1, 2004
662
230
Canberra
AFL Club
Hawthorn
With so many teams a realistic chance of making the finals in 2019 I thought I'd pose the question to see who you thought couldn't.

I didn't list the teams I felt were really obviously at least a chance to make it.
 
Gold Coast, Carlton, St.Kilda & North are the obvious ones.

Not sure why Port aren't on your list.....Have lost 2 A-graders in Wingard & Polec & didn't finish Top 8 this year.

Meanwhile, you have a Top 4 side in Hawthorn, who've added both Wingard & Scully to their list.

North finished above everyone on that list in 2018 and added to our list, yet we are the obvious ones?

Right.
 

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Yep.

Waite's gone & should anything happen to Brown, then you have nothing left up forward.

Initially disagreed with this and wanted to prove you wrong, but you seem to be right. Did a bit of a look-see myself, looking at players who played 15+ games last year and which ones averaged 1-2, 2-3, and 3+ goals a game. Scores were calculated like this:

score = 1 * (# of players averaging 1 to 1.99 goals) + 2 * (# of players averaging 2 to 2.99 goals) + 3 * (# of players averaging 3+ goals)

North finish up 12th, showing a pretty poor spread of goals. Brown is a star, but has no support from his smalls. North's mids kick more goals than they do.

upload_2018-11-15_16-9-56.png
 
The top eight will be:

Richmond
Melbourne
West Coast
Collingwood
Essendon
Adelaide
GWS
Hawthorn
 
North finished above everyone on that list in 2018 and added to our list, yet we are the obvious ones?

Right.
Don’t forget we kicked Hawthorns backside ..
 
Not sure any team will be "making up the numbers" next season. It really does seem like such an even top 14 to a degree.

However, if there is a situation where making the 8 comes down to the last round or two, whichever clubs have to really grind out the last few games to make finals will mostly be spent before the intensity of the first elimination final.
 
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