Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

Which 2-3 teams will drop out of the 8?


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    465
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Veer Right

Club Legend
May 11, 2019
1,061
1,973
AFL Club
St Kilda
As the title suggests.

Two-three teams every year fall out of the eight.

So who moves backwards?

2020 final 8 entering the finals

Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong
West Coast
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Collingwood
 

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RUNVS

Hall of Famer
Feb 28, 2007
39,092
41,407
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Collingwood and Bulldogs for me. Collingwood for obvious reasons like losing some good players and also having a coach that has clearly shown to be amoral and the Bulldogs because I feel like they barely scraped into the finals in 2019 and I think a few teams below them are improving faster.
 

GoldenMagpie16

All Australian
May 29, 2016
668
820
AFL Club
Collingwood
Personally, I believe Collingwood will drop out of the 8 for the next 2 years, They've got incredible young talent coming thru. However, something isn't quite right at this current point.

West Coast could be a smokey to miss the 8 as I don't see anything outstanding from them anymore, they have a list which is great on paper. but been unable to execute the plan since 2018.

Port Adelaide could be a smokey as well to miss the 8 due to the fact they are spent from dominating the season, this was their time and they blew it by 6 points.

Richmond won't miss the 8 but might miss the 4 if they go into the season arrogant
St Kilda will be a top-four contender
Western Bulldogs will be a top-four contender

The two teams that will miss out
Collingwood
West Coast

To replace them
Melbourne
Carlton
 

Power Raid

TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
68,615
58,343
West Perth
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
who knows with the pies. They seem very unsettled at the moment but getting rid of wingard and co worked for Port.

the eagles and cats' best are getting younger. whilst the saints, dogs and port are not reliable
 

Veer Right

Club Legend
May 11, 2019
1,061
1,973
AFL Club
St Kilda
I have it between West Coast, Brisbane and Collingwood. Not sure where i see West Coast and Brisbane moving forwards. Collingwood appears the weakest link in the eight.

Geelong and Richmond are absolute locks going nowhere.

Port / St Kilda rising output.

Dogs fixed there worst area, the ruck and added Trealor so should be right.
 

Laphroaig

I Hate You
Jul 22, 2013
16,145
23,542
AFL Club
Carlton
The only team in the top 4 I see as vulnerable is Geelong. Cameron is a massive pick up IF he rolls his lower lip up and has a red hot go. But the entire engine room is on the wrong side of the age equation. Two or three of these guys turn up cooked (and that can happen in one off season) and they are in a world of hurt. Still probably make the eight though.

That leaves West coast, Bulldogs, St Kilda, Collingwood, GWS, Carlton, Melbourne and Freo fighting among themselves for probably four spots. You can make a good case for all of them, except Collingwood and GWS, being a clearly better side in 2021 than in 2020.

Keeping the best 22, or most of it, on the ground is going to be bigger than ever.
 

theiaofseed

All Australian
Jun 17, 2019
844
1,472
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I have it between West Coast, Brisbane and Collingwood. Not sure where i see West Coast and Brisbane moving forwards. Collingwood appears the weakest link in the eight.

Geelong and Richmond are absolute locks going nowhere.

Port / St Kilda rising output.

Dogs fixed there worst area, the ruck and added Trealor so should be right.
Why would Brisbane drop out? One of the few sides with natural projection that can serious challenge Richmond.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
13,819
19,305
AFL Club
Essendon
I think there'll only be one and that's Collingwood. You need to score goals to win games.
If I had to say a second, then I'd say West Coast, but games at Optus Stadium means they'll win enough.

The rest should all make it again.
 

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Tackle Bag

All Australian
Dec 5, 2017
786
1,513
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Richmond
I think the Saints. They made the 8 by one game and their eventual finishing position of 5th should hand them a fairly tough draw with return games against top 4 sides.

Bulldogs a little shaky but their mid depth should allow Bont to fill their weakness up forward and protect the new kid a little in terms of match ups.

Pies still good enough to play finals unless De Goeys court case result takes him out of their line up for the year.
 
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Veer Right

Club Legend
May 11, 2019
1,061
1,973
AFL Club
St Kilda
Why would Brisbane drop out? One of the few sides with natural projection that can serious challenge Richmond.
Well they had it on a platter this year with the hub up in QLD and were manhandled in the prelim. Won't get easier next year. Not saying they will absolutely miss but out of those three teams i mentioned i am not sure where they are at.
 

st_trav_ofWA

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 17, 2015
5,716
15,137
AFL Club
St Kilda
things to factor in ...
Bris player basically the year with home games and while they did remarkably well i think it gives a false reflection on where they are at
WCE were dominant in WA but were bottom 4 looking away from home the biggest gap of all teams in their best and worst performances
Geelong's best 6 is damn good and that alone will win them enough games to make finals but as shown not enough to win them
Dogs looked lazy, Josh Bruce was a total failure and had the weakest rucks in the comp .. but they still fought their way into the finals .. they got big holes to cover but more often then not they do cover them
Port are on the up
Richmond are too good to miss out
Collingwood were not up to it when it mattered last year this year with a weaker list and the funk coming out of the ranks look shot .. sometimes adversity brings the team together and they lift but this funk looks like its internally ripping them apart ..

St Kilda - if at the start of the year you said to me the saints would play one game at Marvel (that they lose) i would have said we were due to finish bottom 4 the fact we got some hoodoo's off our back in 2020 (beating the crows , winning in Adelaide , winning a final, winning at the Gabba) the team is stronger now and the signs point to us rising .. with a good run with injury we could be top 4 but short of a disaster in player availability i cant see us missing the 8

so from that i have Collingwood out and WCE out but WCE could just as easily win the flag as well
 

JasRulz63

Norm Smith Medallist
May 26, 2007
9,112
8,649
Melbourne
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Brisbane Lions
Bris player basically the year with home games and while they did remarkably well i think it gives a false reflection on where they are at
How do you explain 2019 then?

We have four 30+ year olds that were best 22 this season who may regress with Rich (30) who just had a career best year and Zorko (31) who was carrying an injury this season, being the two important ones. Robbo (31) had a poor year and expect him to be overtaken by some of our younger players. Likewise Birchall (32) might have his position under threat.

But we also have a lot of players that have scope for further improvement - McCluggage (22), Berry (22), Hipwood (23), Ah Chee (23), Starcevich (21), Bailey (21), Answerth (21) and Rayner (21) were all best 22 this season. Throw in Robertson (19), Payne (21), Fullarton (21) and Coleman (20) who showed a bit at senior level and will push for a spot in the best 22.

Our best players aren't too old either including Neale (27), Lyons (28) and Cameron (26). Andrews turned 24 today and is already a dual All-Australian.

I think our side from this year has a lot of scope for improvement. That doesn't even include what Daniher (26) and Cockatoo (24) might bring to the side as well.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
6,415
7,341
AFL Club
West Coast
Port and Brisbane were both kissed on the dick with fixturing this year, expect them both to regress with a more even fixture next year. Port the one more likely to miss out completely.

No chance Cats miss. They will be the team to beat next year and likely finish on top.

Pies should be fine. Went super last year under trying conditions with Treloar only playing 10 games anyway. Would back the players to be professional enough not to sh*t the bed on the field.
 

Dr Awkward

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 23, 2009
5,295
4,932
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Richmond
Other Teams
San Antonio Spurs
The thing that annoyed me about the trade period was most of our rivals improved their list.

Geelong, Port, Brisbane, Bulldogs all made strong acquisitions, and to some extent St Kilda.

Feels like the gap between the top 8 and the rest will widen. I'll say Melbourne to replace Collingwood and that's it.
 

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
7,355
7,558
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
How do you explain 2019 then?

We have four 30+ year olds that were best 22 this season who may regress with Rich (30) who just had a career best year and Zorko (31) who was carrying an injury this season, being the two important ones. Robbo (31) had a poor year and expect him to be overtaken by some of our younger players. Likewise Birchall (32) might have his position under threat.

But we also have a lot of players that have scope for further improvement - McCluggage (22), Berry (22), Hipwood (23), Ah Chee (23), Starcevich (21), Bailey (21), Answerth (21) and Rayner (21) were all best 22 this season. Throw in Robertson (19), Payne (21), Fullarton (21) and Coleman (20) who showed a bit at senior level and will push for a spot in the best 22.

Our best players aren't too old either including Neale (27), Lyons (28) and Cameron (26). Andrews turned 24 today and is already a dual All-Australian.

I think our side from this year has a lot of scope for improvement. That doesn't even include what Daniher (26) and Cockatoo (24) might bring to the side as well.
Why bother the poster you're responding to was clearly being disingenuous. Everyone who knows footy knows the Lions are on the up.
 

Boyd oh Boyd

Premium Platinum
Nov 29, 2018
1,044
1,849
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I'm surprised people are voting for the Saints. It's possible it was a 2018 Melbourne-ish one off, but they seem as well coached as any side and I don't see that changing. All that's letting them down is that they rely on so many younger, inconsistent players. Once they mature a bit more I think they're easily top 4.
 

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