Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

Which 2-3 teams will drop out of the 8?


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PJays

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Nov 2, 2020
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is that because the Saints aren’t good enough to have a fortress like Brisbane?
I'm sure Brisbane would rather play North at say Metricon, than host Richmond or Geelong at the Gabba.

And even that's not an exact comparison, when the Gabba is an exclusive home ground and Marvel isn't (2020 aside).

Melbourne teams don't actually get pure home games in the same sense as non Melb teams do. But that's another issue
 
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Blackas87

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I'm sure Brisbane would rather play North at say Metricon, than host Richmond or Geelong at the Gabba.
I doubt it, I’m sure they want to prove they are a top team and beat the best, who wants boring wins that don’t prepare you for finals?

and they have beaten all of Richmond, Geelong, West Coast over the past 2 years and Port Adelaide the season just gone when they became a top team at the Gabba.

contenders don’t fear anyone on their home deck, you make the other teams fear.

you fear playing those teams at their home, but you also fear them coming to yours.
 

PJays

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I doubt it, I’m sure they want to prove they are a top team and beat the best, who wants boring wins that don’t prepare you for finals?

and they have beaten all of Richmond, Geelong, West Coast over the past 2 years and Port Adelaide the season just gone when they became a top team at the Gabba.

contenders don’t fear anyone on their home deck, you make the other teams fear.

you fear playing those teams at their home, but you also fear them coming to yours.
I don't fear anything, try listening instead of putting words in my mouth

Just making the obvious point that some teams start the season with a sizeable headstart and others with a disadvantage. If you're denying that, you shouldn't be posting on a footy forum cos you clearly have no idea about the sport
 

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Blackas87

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I don't fear anything, try listening instead of putting words in my mouth

Just making the obvious point that some teams start the season with a sizeable headstart and others with a disadvantage. If you're denying that, you shouldn't be posting on a footy forum cos you clearly have no idea about the sport
It’s not sizeable, I say this every year.

you should not be posting a forum if you don’t like other peoples opinions

like I said it’s only 2 extra harder games only based on the previous seasons results.

Saints then get the advantage of having 9 pure home games which other clubs don’t get. Dogs 7 pure home, 10 pure away that is a disadvantage for them.

I don’t see the fixture ever being the difference between a premiership or not
 

PJays

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It’s not sizeable, I say this every year.

you should not be posting a forum if you don’t like other peoples opinions

like I said it’s only 2 extra harder games only based on the previous seasons results.

Saints then get the advantage of having 9 pure home games which other clubs don’t get. Dogs 7 pure home, 10 pure away that is a disadvantage for them.

I don’t see the fixture ever being the difference between a premiership or not
Not sure when this became purely Dogs vs Saints.

Go take a look at GWS fixture. Or West Coast.

You could never categorically say fixture was "the difference" in winning a premiership or not. But it is one of many factors that can help a team finish top 3 or 4, helping them have the opportunity to really compete for one. Or alternatively make it more difficult to do so.
 

Blackas87

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Not sure when this became purely Dogs vs Saints.

Go take a look at GWS fixture. Or West Coast.

You could never categorically say fixture was "the difference" in winning a premiership or not. But it is one of many factors that can help a team finish top 3 or 4, helping them have the opportunity to really compete for one. Or alternatively make it more difficult to do so.
I just picked the Dogs because you guys finished similar and played in the first final against each other. Both clubs would be thinking they can push for top 4 and a premiership, their just the club’s fixture i looked at.

Quick look at those 2, West Coast have 3 finalist double ups but none of the top 4.
GWS have only Richmond but have Melbourne and Carlton that like them will be wanting to push into the top 8.

I know the fixture isn’t even, it never will until everyone plays each other home and away, but it’s always been my opinion that’s never that much lob-sided the AFL media make it.

Anyway if I were a Saints fan I’d be looking forward to those double ups, you got some top teams home and away, 8 games where you can measure yourself against. If you go 4-4 you can say you’re up there with the best, if you go 6-2 you’ll be looking like a real contender if you go 2-6 you’re probably not good enough this year.
 

ScrappyDo

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This is a very StKilda centric thread from start to here at least.

I guess the whiff of success has given my crew some pluck over the off season.

Normally we wouldn't even bother reading a thread like this. We'd be busy in our middle class south eastern bubble, dreaming of a second hand Lexus or Eurotrash equivalent, or sorting through our myriad of polo shirts for the one that looks the least sh1t whilst trying to pinpoint the exact moment in our lives when we became such a total pussy.

Such are the benefits of having your team up and about l suppose.

That said, it's the Pies and Dogs for mine. There's something not right with both these teams, and from the outside it's the culture IMO.
Though l still see them as a better chance than either of Melbs or the Scum, so possibly no changes to the 8 is a real chance in 2021.
GWS and GC are not to be written off either.

Richmond, Geelong and Brizzy are sure things, but l wouldn't put money on any of the others, though l rate the additions of Crouch and Higgins as the most likely to bear fruit from the top 8 teams.
 

aussierulesrules

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Yeah that is true, but it is still hard to keep up. St Kilda’s accuracy did end up waning after Round 10, which also resulted in their win-loss record declining along with it. It’s not easy to reproduce their Rounds 2-10 level of accuracy and it showed from Round 11-Semi Final. I’m not saying it is luck because it’s not like they were accurate by constantly kicking from 50 metres out, but teams are not going to allow St Kilda to our-position them like that all the time. It’s something that teams caught onto rather quickly.

Because their only wins against the top 8 featured crazy accuracy this year (14.4 against Bulldogs, 15.3 against Richmond, 12.1 against Port Adelaide) and only the EF was a win with normal accuracy (although it was 10.7 vs Bulldogs’ 9.10), I could see St Kilda miss if they don’t find another way to win with the draw that they have. It got them to finals in 2020, but top teams will not allow St Kilda to constantly have shots close to goal so they need to find other ways to beat them. Bulldogs and Richmond did not allow it a second time in the finals and Geelong and West Coast did not allow it to begin with. St Kilda are playing Richmond, West Coast and Port Adelaide twice so they need to do something about it. Brad Crouch will help, but we’ll have to see how things pan out
While I largely agree with all that, the other difference between us up to about R11 and after that time was that we had Gresham for those first 11 games, but then he didn't play again after that, and with Hannebery also out for most of that time, it just left our midfield very thin.

That's why getting Crouch in is indeed so crucial, and with Gresham presumably back, it (all things being equal) makes our midfield vastly stronger than it was for most of the time post R11.

As for our accuracy v the finals teams we beat this year, that's true that we were super-accurate, but what's also true is that we won those games comfortably.

Bulldogs by 39, Port (in Adelaide) by 29 and Richmond by 24. It's not like we just snuck over the line and our accuracy was the difference.

We also pretty much never stood a chance v Geelong, with our midfield missing Ryder, Ross, Jones and Hannebery (so 4 of our best 6, plus Dunstan was unavailable to replace one of them), while their midfield contained Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola and Steven!, and we were backing up 4 days after a nailbiting win, were a young team playing our 5th game in 21 days, and had been up for all of that time, winning all previous 4.

We were very due for a loss and hugely susceptible in the midfield. Practically sitting ducks.
 
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Lsta062

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While I largely agree with all that, the other difference between us up to about R11 and after that time was that we had Gresham for those first 11 games, but then he didn't play again after that, and with Hannebery also out for most of that time, it just left our midfield very thin.

That's why getting Crouch in is indeed so crucial, and with Gresham presumably back, it (all things being equal) makes our midfield vastly stronger than it was for most of the time post R11.

As for our accuracy v the finals teams we beat this year, that's true that we were super-accurate, but what's also true is that we won those games comfortably.

Bulldogs by 39, Port (in Adelaide) by 29 and Richmond by 24. It's not like we just snuck over the line and our accuracy was the difference.

We also pretty much never stood a chance v Geelong, with our midfield missing Ryder, Ross, Jones and Hannebery (so 4 of our best 6, plus Dunstan was unavailable to replace one of them), while their midfield contained Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola and Steven!, and we were backing up 4 days after a nailbiting win, were a young team playing our 5th game in 21 days, and had been up for all of that time, winning all previous 4.

We were very due for a loss and hugely susceptible in the midfield. Practically sitting ducks.
I forgot that Gresham wasn’t playing lol. He’s arguably St Kilda’s best player.

Yeah you could be right. I had St Kilda in the top 5 before the fixture came out tbh so I see your points. They were accurate games, but not really close games either
 

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TheBrownDog
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As for our accuracy v the finals teams we beat this year, that's true that we were super-accurate, but what's also true is that we won those games comfortably.

Bulldogs by 39, Port (in Adelaide) by 29 and Richmond by 24. It's not like we just snuck over the line and our accuracy was the difference.
I can't speak for the other games but the Port game was 6.8 to 12.1. So yes, accuracy was absolutely the difference.
 

BrutThough

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I can't speak for the other games but the Port game was 6.8 to 12.1. So yes, accuracy was absolutely the difference.
Yes, it had to be the accuracy and not Ryder and Marshall absolutely dominating the game, Howard keeping Dixon to 1 goal/scoring shot, your midfield being outplayed, Gray, Boak and Butter being non-factors, our defence not allowing you any shots on goal inside 25m and instead forcing the shots on goal from acute angles at a distance while your defence allowing the majority of goals to be scored from the corridor.
 

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TheBrownDog
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Yes, it had to be the accuracy and not Ryder and Marshall absolutely dominating the game, Howard keeping Dixon to 1 goal/scoring shot, your midfield being outplayed, Gray, Boak and Butter being non-factors, our defence not allowing you any shots on goal inside 25m and instead forcing the shots on goal from acute angles at a distance while your defence allowing the majority of goals to be scored from the corridor.
Mate we literally had more scoring shots than you. That's pretty much the start and the end of the 'was accuracy the difference?' question.

I'm not saying the Saints weren't the better team on the day, they were, but that's because they were far better at converting their opportunities on the day.
 

BrutThough

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Mate we literally had more scoring shots than you. That's pretty much the start and the end of the 'was accuracy the difference?' question.

I'm not saying the Saints weren't the better team on the day, they were, but that's because they were far better at converting their opportunities on the day.
It was 1 less scoring shot, so hardly significant in a 23 point loss.

The result was less about the actual converting of the shots in the game and more about where each team was taking their shots from in the game. It isnt is if both teams were taking easy shots from similar places in the game and one converted better. One team was able to take easy shots straight in front all game and the other was forced to take low percentage shots all game. Says more about ball movement and each teams defensive work than the art of straight goal kicking.
 

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TheBrownDog
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Out of curiosity I went back and watched an all the goals video on YouTube. It's somewhat true but not entirely. Butler kicked a goal from 50 out. Hind kicked a goal from about 55 out. Ryder dribbled a goal from the pocket. Membrey literally accidentally kicked a goal where a Tom Jonas spoil hit his foot before going over the line.

I recall seeing a stat going around that night that 12.1 was the best goal accuracy percentage ever kicked by a winning team in a VFL/AFL game. Ever. Do you know how many thousands and thousands of games that is?
 

Veer Right

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I can't speak for the other games but the Port game was 6.8 to 12.1. So yes, accuracy was absolutely the difference.
Sure it was

Lets make it 7.6 to 6.8 and guess who wins?

You lost fair and square, accuracy had fk all to do with it other then inflating the final result.

Good teams kick straight FWIW.
 

FreeTK

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St Kilda will fall out of the 8 given their horrific fixture.

I could see Collingwood dropping outside the 8 and finished 9-12th on the ladder.

To be replaced by GWS and Fremantle.
 

Mat Mann

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it's a tough draw for us esp if you consider we fell into finals after Melbourne and GWS stuffed their chances,
Collingwood against the odds beat WC in WC, Dogs decided to only turn up at 1/2 time.

Still, lots to prove for my club, and copping the hardest draw could be the making of the team, or it could also be a disaster.
easy to see us missing finals, but can also see us making them based on our best, 6th to 10th, same as last year.

Pies the favorite to drop out, lose 2-3 starting 22, a bit of depth, and filled zero deficiencies.
Hard to see WC missing out, practically gifted a finals berth due to home ground advantage even with a mediocre side (which they are not)

Geelong the only other query for me, but I doubt they'd drop so much as to miss finals entirely, old father time has to catch up soon (edit: though)

the rest seem solid choices for top 8
 
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Mofra

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Geelong the only other query for me, but I doubt they'd drop so much as to miss finals entirely, old father time has to catch up soon
They picked up Higgins, Smith and Cameron - I can't see them dropping, especially if they get KP home games back for 2021.

Now, if these Richmond/Hardwick rumours are true...
 

Mat Mann

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They picked up Higgins, Smith and Cameron - I can't see them dropping, especially if they get KP home games back for 2021.

Now, if these Richmond/Hardwick rumours are true...
I don't see them dropping either, old as they may be. it'd take something to go massively wrong for them to drop out, but at some point soon, dad's army will falter, the question is, how far will it fall.
 

vidwhal

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Hmmm....I believe the likely clubs are Collingwood & Wet Toast to fall out of the eight. Why? I'd say it's looking like a three way race between Freo, Melbourne and Carlton........God, I hope it's the toast that fall out hehe :)

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