Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

Which 2-3 teams will drop out of the 8?


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Rimmer

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May 7, 2008
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Pies started 2020 as one of the premiership favourites. Their clean out certainly hasn't made the team better.

Hmm, I think that's it, I can't see any of the other 7 clubs missing the 8. Carlton or GWS to take Collingwood's place.
 

The_torpedo

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Sep 16, 2016
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Collingwood is a certainty to drop out.

The other team idk. West Coast a popular pick, Geelong seem to perenially be on the edge of dropping out but always pull through
 

Catsnlakers

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Of course it was going to be harder then when we were finishing bottom 4.

But when we are the only club who has to play 3 of last years top 4 twice (Richmond, Port, Geelong), the only team from the 'middle 6' we place twice is West Coast who finished above us in the home and away season, and every game we play against the remaining finalists is an away game, it's hard to argue that we haven't been dealt a much tougher fixture than anyone else.
Tougher yes, but still within the parameters of the “weighted” rule....H&A finishes are irrelevant to your final placing....I would be super excited as a Saints fan with that draw, you’ve now earned the right to play these teams twice, that can only bode well for your players ability to deal with the real stuff come finals. 👍
 

FreeTK

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Pies started 2020 as one of the premiership favourites. Their clean out certainly hasn't made the team better.

Hmm, I think that's it, I can't see any of the other 7 clubs missing the 8. Carlton or GWS to take Collingwood's place.
I'm not sure about Collingwood dropping.

I still think they're a team that makes the 8 quite comfortably.

It's hard to see them getting worse in 2021 than they were in the mid/late home and away season this year.

They have lost Treloar, Stephenson, and Bosevulagi(sp?).

Treloar missed big chunks, Atu is a big loss of the medium term rather than the short term, given he is a promising player, but hasn't had a real big impact on field yet, and Stephenson had the season from hell.

The doom and gloom around Collingwood is overplayed. They shipped out players who either, weren't in B22, had shocking seasons, or missed big chunks through injury (and is injury prone).

Collingwood should also reasonably expect a better output from Grundy, Sidebottom, return of Howe.

I think they may surprise some people here.
 

JayJ20

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I'm not sure about Collingwood dropping.

I still think they're a team that makes the 8 quite comfortably.

It's hard to see them getting worse in 2021 than they were in the mid/late home and away season this year.

They have lost Treloar, Stephenson, and Bosevulagi(sp?).

Treloar missed big chunks, Atu is a big loss of the medium term rather than the short term, given he is a promising player, but hasn't had a real big impact on field yet, and Stephenson had the season from hell.

The doom and gloom around Collingwood is overplayed. They shipped out players who either, weren't in B22, had shocking seasons, or missed big chunks through injury (and is injury prone).

Collingwood should also reasonably expect a better output from Grundy, Sidebottom, return of Howe.

I think they may surprise some people here.
Problem with Collingwood is scoring and they haven't improved their forwardline. It doesn't matter how dominant the midfield is. If they cannot find a reliable avenue to goal, then they'll struggle winning enough games to make the 8. They have the worst forwardline of the top 8 by some distance. Teams below them like Melbourne, GWS and Carlton have better forwardlines as well. I don't see them making it.

Eddie's last year could give them a boost, but I doubt it.
 

FreeTK

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Problem with Collingwood is scoring and they haven't improved their forwardline. It doesn't matter how dominant the midfield is. If they cannot find a reliable avenue to goal, then they'll struggle winning enough games to make the 8. They have the worst forwardline of the top 8 by some distance. Teams below them like Melbourne, GWS and Carlton have better forwardlines as well. I don't see them making it.

Eddie's last year could give them a boost, but I doubt it.
I agree, but that is not new to 2021.


They had that issue in 2020, and yet they still managed to get some good scalps in the first part of the year.

People saying that they will drop due to their trade week shenanigans.

Those 3 players contributed very little in 2020, so I am not sure what they have lost here?

They need to fix their forward line if they want to win a flag. Even with their current lineup I still rate them as a team that should minimum repeat this years result and win 1 final.
 

JayJ20

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I agree, but that is not new to 2021.


They had that issue in 2020, and yet they still managed to get some good scalps in the first part of the year.

People saying that they will drop due to their trade week shenanigans.

Those 3 players contributed very little in 2020, so I am not sure what they have lost here?

They need to fix their forward line if they want to win a flag. Even with their current lineup I still rate them as a team that should minimum repeat this years result and win 1 final.
See that's not factoring in natural improvement from sides below them. Plus, I don't believe they would have made finals if the season was normal length.

For comparison's sake, their year was very similar to Essendon 2019. Once Daniher was injured, we struggled scoring and scraped by a few teams to make finals before getting thrashed. Sure Collingwood won the EF, but the way they lost to Geelong is very concerning.

I don't think Treloar or Stephenson out makes a big difference. I think the teams below them will naturally pass them because their forwardline cannot keep up with the others.
 

FreeTK

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See that's not factoring in natural improvement from sides below them. Plus, I don't believe they would have made finals if the season was normal length.

For comparison's sake, their year was very similar to Essendon 2019. Once Daniher was injured, we struggled scoring and scraped by a few teams to make finals before getting thrashed. Sure Collingwood won the EF, but the way they lost to Geelong is very concerning.

I don't think Treloar or Stephenson out makes a big difference. I think the teams below them will naturally pass them because their forwardline cannot keep up with the others.
Personally, I thought their EF was closer to their true form than the SF. I think they played their GF the week before and were flat from natural letdown.

They will have improvement in their side next year - Pendles, Sidebottom, Howe all missed significant amount of time in 2020, and I think it is reasonable to expect more from Grundy as well. That is 4 very good players that have more to offer in 2021 than they did in 2020.

The difference between Essendon in 2019 and Collingwood in 2020, is Collingwood are a known quantity. We know that they can match it with the top teams, because they have done just that for 2.5 seasons from 2018-2020.

I could see GWS rebounding past them, and maybe Melbourne.

On the flipside, I expect St Kilda to drop given the difficulty of their fixture. I could see the dogs dropping as well, and in my mind are far more similar to the Essendon comparison than the magpies comparison.
 

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Virgin Dog

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Whether the hubs return could have a serious impact on who drops out. If the hubs were set up in SA/WA instead of QLD, it makes Brisbane an outside chance (otherwise I'd have them basically a lock for top 4). Establishing a hub in WA locks the Eagles in, who otherwise could drop out depending on the fitness of Yeo and how their spine goes next year (do Kennedy and Hurn perform or drop off? How do their replacements go?).

Collingwood are the only pick I'm confident in saying will drop out. The other I feel could be dependent on hubs, but realistically I'd be picking one of Brisbane, Dogs, Saints or West Coast to slide depending on circumstances. I feel Port, Geelong and Richmond are really the only safe picks
 

aussierulesrules

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I'm not sure about Collingwood dropping.

I still think they're a team that makes the 8 quite comfortably.

It's hard to see them getting worse in 2021 than they were in the mid/late home and away season this year.

They have lost Treloar, Stephenson, and Bosevulagi(sp?).

Treloar missed big chunks, Atu is a big loss of the medium term rather than the short term, given he is a promising player, but hasn't had a real big impact on field yet, and Stephenson had the season from hell.

The doom and gloom around Collingwood is overplayed. They shipped out players who either, weren't in B22, had shocking seasons, or missed big chunks through injury (and is injury prone).

Collingwood should also reasonably expect a better output from Grundy, Sidebottom, return of Howe.

I think they may surprise some people here.
The issue for Collingwood though is that while those 4 they lost (and you forgot Phillips) didn't have a huge impact this year, it puts a big dent in your depth (especially of your 22), when you lose 4 guys (3 of whom were best 22) and don't replace them with others who are plug-and-play equivalents.

And while yes they may get more out of Pendles/Howe/Sidey/Grundy this year, they're almost certainly going to get injuries to others (and Collingwood have been very injury-prone in recent years) and that's when having significantly less depth (due to the aforementioned) is likely to hurt them.

Especially when as stated above some of the teams below them immediately improved their best 22's with their offseason additions, while Collingwood undoubtedly weakened theirs.

For them to make the finals again I reckon they need De Goey to have a Petracca/Steele type breakout year and for Grundy to return to peak form.
 

FreeTK

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The issue for Collingwood though is that while those 4 they lost (and you forgot Phillips) didn't have a huge impact this year, it puts a big dent in your depth (especially of your 22), when you lose 4 guys (3 of whom were best 22) and don't replace them with others who are plug-and-play equivalents.

And while yes they may get more out of Pendles/Howe/Sidey/Grundy this year, they're almost certainly going to get injuries to others (and Collingwood have been very injury-prone in recent years) and that's when having significantly less depth (due to the aforementioned) is likely to hurt them.

Especially when as stated above some of the teams below them immediately improved their best 22's with their offseason additions, while Collingwood undoubtedly weakened theirs.

For them to make the finals again I reckon they need De Goey to have a Petracca/Steele type breakout year and for Grundy to return to peak form.
That's actually a very valid point to make about depth, especially considering they have a poor record of getting their best players on the park for long periods of time.

I could see De Goey having a very good year. He is at that 23-24 year age where we see those big jumps in form.

I still don't think they're guaranteed to struggle as much as some think.

Carlton, Melbourne GWS and Fremantle are the most likely teams that will replace whoever drops out of the top 8, and I still think Collingwood can mix it with the better teams enough to get enough wins to to make the 8 again.
 

And_ROOS

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Can't see Saints dropping out. The team looks stronger with targeted recruits. The only thing that will stop Saints improving is 2nd year blues, and I don't see that happening
I don't see Saints out either, but the stats usually suggest 2 teams out 2 in. I can see GWS in for Pies, less likely is Carlton in for Saints.
 

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