Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

Which 2-3 teams will drop out of the 8?


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PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
680
765
AFL Club
St Kilda
Saints fixture:

Doubles

- Richmond
- Geelong
- West Coast
- Port
- Sydney

That's the last 4 premiers, and 3 of the 4 prelim finalists.

And our only games against the other finalists are all away games- Bris at Gabba, Coll at MCG. And Dogs (which doesn't really count).

The toughest games in the AFL are- Richmond at MCG, WC in Perth, Bris at Gabba and Geelong at Geelong. We've drawn all 4. I wonder how many teams over the past couple of years have had that honour!?

St Kilda finished 5th after 6th in H&A.

Ridiculous. You'd think what is easily the biggest sport in the country, with so much emphasis on equalisation, could do more to equalise one of the crucial aspects.
 

Freomaniac

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May 3, 2007
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Saints fixture:

Doubles

- Richmond
- Geelong
- West Coast
- Port
- Sydney

That's the last 4 premiers, and 3 of the 4 prelim finalists.

And our only games against the other finalists are all away games- Bris at Gabba, Coll at MCG. And Dogs (which doesn't really count).

The toughest games in the AFL are- Richmond at MCG, WC in Perth, Bris at Gabba and Geelong at Geelong. We've drawn all 4. I wonder how many teams over the past couple of years have had that honour!?

St Kilda finished 5th after 6th in H&A.

Ridiculous. You'd think what is easily the biggest sport in the country, with so much emphasis on equalisation, could do more to equalise one of the crucial aspects.
Meh Some teams have had worse fixtures.
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
680
765
AFL Club
St Kilda
Meh Some teams have had worse fixtures.
List some examples. Go on.

Who's had:

- Doubles against 3 prelim finalists, and 4 of the top 5 home & away teams.

- Away games against every top 8 team.

- The toughest 4 games in the comp at the time*

Go on. Show me a comparably difficult fixture.

I haven't looked into 6 day breaks. But this, and travel are overrated factors. Teams in some sports travel 2-3 times as much as AFL teams. The most travelled AFL teams would average maybe 3 hours in the air every week over the season. It's not much. The most important determinants in winning and losing are- who you play, and which ground you play them on. On these measures it would be hard to imagine a fixture much harder than St.Kilda's 2021 fixture.

*I'd rate those- Richmond at the G, West Coast in Perth, Geelong in Geelong and Brisbane at the Gabba. WC were 7-0 in Perth this year during H&A, 7-1 overall. Bris 9-0 and 10-1 overall. Richmond and Geelong didn't play many home games in 2020 with Covid but have exceptional records at their home grounds over many years.
 
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Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
22,010
11,228
Parts Unknown
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Fremantle
Other Teams
Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
List some examples. Go on.

Who's had:

- Doubles against 3 prelim finalists, and 4 of the top 5 home & away teams.

- Away games against every top 8 team.

- The toughest 4 games in the comp at the time*

Go on. Show me a comparably difficult fixture.

I haven't looked into 6 day breaks. But this, and travel are overrated factors. Teams in some sports travel 2-3 times as much as AFL teams. The most travelled AFL teams would average maybe 3 hours in the air every week over the season. It's not much. The most important determinants in winning and losing are- who you play, and which ground you play them on. On these measures it would be hard to imagine a fixture much harder than St.Kilda's 2021 fixture.

*I'd rate those- Richmond at the G, West Coast in Perth, Geelong in Geelong and Brisbane at the Gabba. WC were 7-0 in Perth this year during H&A, 7-1 overall. Bris 9-0 and 10-1 overall. Richmond and Geelong didn't play many home games in 2020 with Covid but have exceptional records at their home grounds over many years.
I can be stuffed looking back at every teams fixtures in the last 20 or so years.

Hawks in 2011 or 2012 had a tough draw. 1st 7 rounds had to take on each of the other team of the final 8 from the previous year.

Hell on the other end of the scale..... No team had a softer draw than the crows in 2012. they finished top 2 in 2012 due to having a struggling Port twice, an injury riddled freo twice, suns twice and GWS twice.
 

LoungeLizard

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 15, 2009
9,374
7,545
gippsland
AFL Club
Collingwood
List some examples. Go on.

Who's had:

- Doubles against 3 prelim finalists, and 4 of the top 5 home & away teams.

- Away games against every top 8 team.

- The toughest 4 games in the comp at the time*

Go on. Show me a comparably difficult fixture.

I haven't looked into 6 day breaks. But this, and travel are overrated factors. Teams in some sports travel 2-3 times as much as AFL teams. The most travelled AFL teams would average maybe 3 hours in the air every week over the season. It's not much. The most important determinants in winning and losing are- who you play, and which ground you play them on. On these measures it would be hard to imagine a fixture much harder than St.Kilda's 2021 fixture.

*I'd rate those- Richmond at the G, West Coast in Perth, Geelong in Geelong and Brisbane at the Gabba. WC were 7-0 in Perth this year during H&A, 7-1 overall. Bris 9-0 and 10-1 overall. Richmond and Geelong didn't play many home games in 2020 with Covid but have exceptional records at their home grounds over many years.
The team that finishes last, the next year have to play EVERY team that finished above them.:p
 
Mar 18, 2014
27
40
AFL Club
Geelong
List some examples. Go on.

Who's had:

- Doubles against 3 prelim finalists, and 4 of the top 5 home & away teams.

- Away games against every top 8 team.

- The toughest 4 games in the comp at the time*

Go on. Show me a comparably difficult fixture.

I haven't looked into 6 day breaks. But this, and travel are overrated factors. Teams in some sports travel 2-3 times as much as AFL teams. The most travelled AFL teams would average maybe 3 hours in the air every week over the season. It's not much. The most important determinants in winning and losing are- who you play, and which ground you play them on. On these measures it would be hard to imagine a fixture much harder than St.Kilda's 2021 fixture.

*I'd rate those- Richmond at the G, West Coast in Perth, Geelong in Geelong and Brisbane at the Gabba. WC were 7-0 in Perth this year during H&A, 7-1 overall. Bris 9-0 and 10-1 overall. Richmond and Geelong didn't play many home games in 2020 with Covid but have exceptional records at their home grounds over many years.
Geelong in 2015

Doubles against the 2014 Grand Finalists and 1 of the preliminary finalists who would all go on to finish either in the top 4 or make a prelim in 2015 (only 2 at home).

Fixtured against the other prelim finalist from 2014 PORT in Adelaide.

Fixtured WCE in Perth who would go on to play GF in 2015

Outside of playing itself, fixtured to play 9 of the top 10 sides of 2014 away.

Outside of facing Geelong the toughest 5 games at the time:
* Hawthorn at the MCG x 2
* Sydney in Sydney
* PORT in Adel
* WCE in Perth (average win margin 55points at home in 2014)

Fixtured for ultimately 21 games including a double bye (thus gaining no advantage from an extra weeks rest)

As to how the season played out Geelong went 6-1 against sides that ultimately finished 5th-11th in 2015 (one loss was to SYD in SYD who finished H&A in 4th) and 4-0 against the bottom 4 and yet finished 10th.
 

Grin

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 8, 2006
14,527
16,776
Port Adelaide
AFL Club
Richmond
Despite having the easiest fixture next year of any of this year's finalist, Port's is still a heck of a lot harder than it was this year. I think they and Collingwood are at the greatest risk of dropping out of the 8. Eagles to stay in because of their home ground advantage.
 

beema limapep

????????????
Oct 29, 2017
6,901
11,037
AFL Club
Richmond
Saints fixture:

Doubles

- Richmond
- Geelong
- West Coast
- Port
- Sydney

That's the last 4 premiers, and 3 of the 4 prelim finalists.

And our only games against the other finalists are all away games- Bris at Gabba, Coll at MCG. And Dogs (which doesn't really count).

The toughest games in the AFL are- Richmond at MCG, WC in Perth, Bris at Gabba and Geelong at Geelong. We've drawn all 4. I wonder how many teams over the past couple of years have had that honour!?

St Kilda finished 5th after 6th in H&A.

Ridiculous. You'd think what is easily the biggest sport in the country, with so much emphasis on equalisation, could do more to equalise one of the crucial aspects.
More easy games against lower drawing and lower tv rating clubs then? Swap WC, richmond and Geelong for North, Freo and GC? Or do you want your cake and to eat it too?
 

Grin

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 8, 2006
14,527
16,776
Port Adelaide
AFL Club
Richmond
This year when everyone played each other once? You're an idiot.
So you're saying there's no such thing as home ground advantage?
That's right. I forgot. For some reason this year, it was a tremendous disadvantage to play home games on your home ground. The narrative here in Port is that Victorian clubs were hugely advantaged by having to hub, whilst the vAFL forced Port to play all of their home games and all of their finals at their home ground.
Outrageous. I wonder how the hell Port managed to win the minor premiership against such insurmountable odds?

Anyway I doubt Port will make the top 4 next year in a competition that only affords them a handful of advantages against the Victorian clubs. I mean next year, it's barely a 3 or 4 game leg up.
 

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
55,467
159,744
SA
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So you're saying there's no such thing as home ground advantage?
That's right. I forgot. For some reason this year, it was a tremendous disadvantage to play home games on your home ground. The narrative here in Port is that Victorian clubs were hugely advantaged by having to hub, whilst the vAFL forced Port to play all of their home games and all of their finals at their home ground.
Outrageous. I wonder how the hell Port managed to win the minor premiership against such insurmountable odds?
The 'advantage' Port had last season was the same advantage that every Victorian club has had every other season and will continue to have every other season.

In 2018 Richmond could've won a flag having only won one single game outside their home state. That is an unfair advantage that Port Adelaide or any other non-Victorian club will never get. The 2017 flag would have gone to the Crows if not for Richmond getting an unfair advantage that no non-Victorian club will ever get.
 

telsor

Hall of Famer
Aug 29, 2004
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The 'advantage' Port had last season was the same advantage that every Victorian club has had every other season and will continue to have every other season.

In 2018 Richmond could've won a flag having only won one single game outside their home state. That is an unfair advantage that Port Adelaide or any other non-Victorian club will never get. The 2017 flag would have gone to the Crows if not for Richmond getting an unfair advantage that no non-Victorian club will ever get.
People have some very odd notions of what Vic clubs get 'every year'.
 

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Sweet Jesus

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 20, 2014
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West Coast
WC with the third number of votes is laughable. Should finish top 4.
I understand the tendency to jump off ageing sides that have been up for a while, simply because they're "due". But if WC can't win 12 games out of 22 with this list, something has gone badly awry. No one can predict injuries but WC still look pretty sound to me, on paper at least. Some tweaks required though.
 

FreeTK

Premiership Player
Suspended
Oct 2, 2019
4,370
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West Coast
I think GWS get back in the 8, so at least one team has to make room for them.

St Kilda is the obvious choice with their fixture from hell. Another team I haven't been impressed with is Western Bulldogs.

West Coast is the wild card, the last two years they have had periods of looking like the team to beat, but have had two disappointing finishes to the H&A season in a row. My gut tells me that they are still good enough at home to win enough games to make the 8 comfortably, and their poisition inside the 8 will be determined by their away games (particularly against Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong and Brisbane).

I could also see Fremantle scraping in to the 8. They made good progress under Longmuir, and while Carlton has a better list, I think Fremantle have a much better coach.
 

FreeTK

Premiership Player
Suspended
Oct 2, 2019
4,370
8,153
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West Coast
WC with the third number of votes is laughable. Should finish top 4.
I think West Coast is a lock for top 8, but other than that, they do have some questions that need answering before they should be considered a lock for top 4.

- What is the prognosis on Yeo? The second half of the season highlighted just how important he is to their midfield.
- What are they going to do with the ruck? 2020 was perfect for Nic with reduced quarters. In 2021, he will either need to play more minutes or have a genuine ruck partnership. If WC need a second ruck, will they use pinch hitter Allen, or blood Williams, and you probably can't have both of them in the one team.
- What about JK and Hurn? JK looked great during the middle stretch of the season, how will he be pulling up after 20 minute quarters and more travel in 2021?
- Can Kelly adapt to a new system? He really needs to step up to justify his price tag. He was incredibly inconsistent in 2020
- Will Langdon/Petruelle/Jones be able to improve West Coasts ground balls game in forward 50.

On paper they are the biggest challenger for the flag outside of Richmond, reality is they haven't translated that into results and ladder position in the last two season, and that is a serious knock on them.
 

Sweet Jesus

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 20, 2014
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I think West Coast is a lock for top 8, but other than that, they do have some questions that need answering before they should be considered a lock for top 4.
Is anyone really a "lock" for top 4 this far out?

You'll get shortish odds on Richmond but it will probably be determined by a handful of close games or 8-point games between sides with at least 13 wins.

I mean, WC lost to the Bulldogs by 2 points. Win that and WC finish third. Those results are a toss of the coin.
 
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mpal6

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2008
4,783
3,956
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Brisbane Lions
WC with the third number of votes is laughable. Should finish top 4.

Will be interesting to see how Brisbane goes without Noble. I expect they'll slide
I was unsure with Noble leaving and our coaching box tactician Danny Daly moving out to take his spot. This is until we got Mark Stone as replacement.

The impression Fagan made on that call convinced Stone it was time to return to the AFL and he thanked Glenelg for their support in facilitating the move. “When Fages first called me, I remember going home and saying to my wife, this is a coach I really want to work under,’’ he said.

As long as Fages is there, he'll get the right people around him. We'll be fine.
 

Strapping Young Lad

previously Messenger
Apr 19, 2006
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The 'advantage' Port had last season was the same advantage that every Victorian club has had every other season and will continue to have every other season.
Well sure, if you completely ignore the disadvantage that the HUB teams had, going the other way.

It's not really the same thing.
 

Rich01

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 5, 2004
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The 'advantage' Port had last season was the same advantage that every Victorian club has had every other season and will continue to have every other season.

In 2018 Richmond could've won a flag having only won one single game outside their home state. That is an unfair advantage that Port Adelaide or any other non-Victorian club will never get. The 2017 flag would have gone to the Crows if not for Richmond getting an unfair advantage that no non-Victorian club will ever get.
Yep. Adelaide well and truly sh*t the bed in 2017. The players admitted as much shortly afterwards. Nothing to do with where the game was played.

And Ports advantage in 2020 was substantial relative to most other clubs. But no one really cares. Both Brisbane and Port should have been playing in the grand final last year but they just weren’t good enough. Just like Richmond in 2018 (although Richmonds ‘home’ prelim that year was actually a neutral one), unlike Ports in 2020.

I did enjoy bow and arrows antics in the 2020 prelim immensely though. Geez he really got into Lynch’s face that night.
 

Jcpdragonx

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Sep 19, 2010
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Pies midfield is looking very depleted and kicking a winning score is likely to still be an issue. I'd be playing the plethora of good youth they have this year.

Saints I doubt drop out the eight, they showed signs of a team on the rise - beating teams ahead of them (Port, Tigers), but also showing some weakness where they folded to a depleted eagles side for a spot in top 4. I think they're a good chance for top 4, a well balanced list with some young stars on the rise - Hunter, Coffield, Marshall, King. Steele I rate a top 5 player in the league. They should be targeting Merrett next year.

The Dogs need a gun KPD and another 2-4 years into Naughton and Jammara. They will have the pieces in 2-3 years, otherwise expect them to float around 5th-10th for the time being.
 

Soberian Tiger

Borat's cousin twice removed from village
Jul 25, 2018
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Collingwood: they packed a former marquee signing in Treloar off to the boarding kennel.

Western Bulldogs: they picked up the dagwood dog that the pies dropped on the pavement.

Seriously, Footscray finishing just outside on percentage wouldn't be a surprise, while Collingwood might well plummet to depths that could surprise plenty.

Freo and Suns look like big improvers, with GC probably not quite ready yet. GWS are the wild card. On talent, they're in, even without Cameron J. kicking a bag. And without Cameron L. kicking his coaching bag for a few new ideas.
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
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Collingwood: they packed a former marquee signing in Treloar off to the boarding kennel.

Western Bulldogs: they picked up the dagwood dog that the pies dropped on the pavement.

Seriously, Footscray finishing just outside on percentage wouldn't be a surprise, while Collingwood might well plummet to depths that could surprise plenty.

Freo and Suns look like big improvers, with GC probably not quite ready yet. GWS are the wild card. On talent, they're in, even without Cameron J. kicking a bag. And without Cameron L. kicking his coaching bag for a few new ideas.
I would love Freo to play finals again in 2021 and getting 7th or 8th spot.

But I see Freo getting 9th or 10th or 11th.

Dogs could easily get 4th spot or even finish 10th.

A team like GWS or demon's could easily finish 10th or 11th or easily could get a home final at 5th or 6th spot.

It's going to be one of those close seasons if you're a mid table side where a one or 2 close games determine a team gets 7th-10th
 

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