Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

Veer Right

Team Captain
May 11, 2019
414
568
AFL Club
St Kilda
As the title suggests.

Two-three teams every year fall out of the eight. I suggest only two next year.

So who moves backwards?
 

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Coaster2012

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 10, 2012
6,178
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West Coast
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No obvious candidates. Maybe Brisbane with a harder draw. Maybe the Dogs. Essendon is a wild card, but I'm predicting a top 4 position for them.
 
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B4Bear

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 6, 2011
5,176
8,470
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Essendon and Collingwood.

Essendon just aren't very good. They are weak in the middle and have a KPF who doesn't want to be there, or is perpetually injured.

Collingwood seem to have been up there for years, just feel that they will be a little bit slower next year, and with the competition so even that might be enough to tip them out.
 

GoldStandard

Debutant
Sep 10, 2019
81
209
AFL Club
Essendon
I think the Dogs will drop out because they usually struggle to win enough games to make finals to begin with. I tend to think midfielders are a bit overrated in general, so while the Dogs have a strong midfield I don't think it will translate into success. They don't have a ton of talent at either end of the ground, Naughton has showed a bit but has proven he can't carry a forward unit. The Giants will drop out as well because I don't think they're that well coached, they've brought in all these culture type players like DeBoer, Sam Reid and Daniel Lloyd but I think the Giants were at their best in 2016 when all their guns were kicking over 100 points regularly.
 

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Wojcinski

If your dad has no beard, you've got two mums
Aug 14, 2011
12,692
17,516
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Geelong
Essendon and Collingwood

Essendon are still an 8-12 side and while they'll be around the mark I think they'll miss in 2020 with no obvious improvement.

Pies are my smoky but like Geelong, their season showed many inconsistencies and couple with an aging list might see them fall.
 

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
12,534
15,471
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Geelong
got Richmond as the only top 4 certainity
Richmond, WC & GWS have all had bad runs over the last couple of years and still made finals and/or won flags. They would be the only 3 that I would be confident on definitely making the 8. Anyone else could miss quite easily.

Which teams would you categorically rule out from making the 8? Honestly at this stage it would only be GC and Freo for mine.

Carlton, St Kilda, North maybe unlikely but with an easy draw, some improvement, and a good run with injuries it is not impossible for them to bounce.

Adelaide and Port looking pretty cooked but they still have some talent on the list.
 

Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,449
3,456
Melbourne
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Melbourne
I think Richmond and West Coast are very safe bets for top 8, I have them in the top 4.

GWS and Collingwood I feel will at the very least make the top 8, possibly top 4.

Bulldogs are interesting, they're a popular pick to make top 4 and I reckon they have the potential to do so, think they will do enough to play finals although I have more trust in teams like the Tigers, Eagles, Giants and Magpies who have played finals in consecutive years.

Loved what Brisbane was able to achieve in the H&A season this year, but I think they will drop next year. Personally, I'm tipping them to miss finals in 2020. Will be interesting to see how they fare in 2020 after a big improvement this year.

Geelong I think will drop as well. However, I believe they will still do enough to finish within the top 8.

Essendon is a team with potential, but for mine, there's a real possibility they slide out of the top 8 in 2020. There's a fair bit of talent on their list, but they're a pretty unconvincing team still so at this stage I'm tipping them to drop out. So right now, I have Essendon and Brisbane missing out in 2020 although my opinion may change before the season starts.
 

gandaal

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 8, 2004
18,239
14,737
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
If I was to pick 2 it would be Essendon and GWS.

Brisbane might do a Melbourne but they never had the underlying issues that Melbourne had, and have a far better coach.
 

Nuke Fremantle

Premiership Player
Mar 26, 2007
3,155
2,140
Dullsville
AFL Club
West Coast
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Essendon have been borderline 8 (at best) for years and I can't see that changing. OUT.

Brisbane 2020 have Melbourne 2019 written all over them. By the way, I think they got excused way too lightly for dropping consecutive home finals. OUT.

Interesting that already people are mentioning Collingwood. I think they look pretty solid but the wildcard could be the unsettling effect if negotiations drag on for Grundy-DeGoey-Moore.
 

catscollector

All Australian
Jun 30, 2018
704
731
AFL Club
Geelong
Essendon and Collingwood.

Essendon just aren't very good. They are weak in the middle and have a KPF who doesn't want to be there, or is perpetually injured.

Collingwood seem to have been up there for years, just feel that they will be a little bit slower next year, and with the competition so even that might be enough to tip them out.
They made the finals without him playing for most of the year.
What if he happens to play 15 games.

I think they have a lot of improvement, mainly with injured guys set to return next year. Stewart, Daniher, Smith will be three crucial ins.
 

GoldStandard

Debutant
Sep 10, 2019
81
209
AFL Club
Essendon
Essendon have been borderline 8 (at best) for years and I can't see that changing. OUT.

Brisbane 2020 have Melbourne 2019 written all over them. By the way, I think they got excused way too lightly for dropping consecutive home finals. OUT.

Interesting that already people are mentioning Collingwood. I think they look pretty solid but the wildcard could be the unsettling effect if negotiations drag on for Grundy-DeGoey-Moore.
That's what I'm worried about with Collingwood. There will be a lot of noise about that during the season.
 

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