Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

Halftimehero

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Jun 26, 2012
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I love the logic, Essendon will drop out because they aren’t very good and won’t win enough games.

What’s this based on? This year when they actually did make it?

Can only see them improving next season with Smith and Daniher back and the younger group with another year under their belt.
 

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Milkshaker

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Nov 6, 2014
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Essendon - bottom 4 list.

Geelong - cooked and entering a mini-rebuild.
This. Essendon kept a player who did not want to be there. Will eat at the club much like Adelaides camp.
Geelong will miss Kellys class and Joel is cooked. They may still scrape in but could see them dropping 4 games compared to last year at minimum.
Collingwood a chance to drop out too. Been up for a while.
Brisbane are on the up. GWS will click imo. Tiges are super. WCE will be 5th again. Doggies still have some bite.
Out: Cats Dons Pies. The only thing that may save them is a lack of legit challengers. Not sure outside of Hawks and Saints that anyone else is up for it. Saints most likely to be a bolter based on Ratten influence and a solid off season recruiting drive.
 

Carringbush2010

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A lot of people are trying to predict form drops but how is the depth looking for these clubs? Richmond proved they bat deep but which of the other clubs handle having 2 of their best 3 players out for most of the year?

I reckon if Geelong lose Hawkins, if Brisbane lose Neale, if Collingwood lose Grundy, if West Coast lose Darling, if Bulldogs lose Bont and if Essendon lose Merrett they could struggle to adapt. GWS I don't know what to make of.
Sorry for late reply, but Bont? As a sublime player as he is he is not the difference between the dogs best and worst. Same for Neale, there's a plethora of back up role types for Neale- as good as he is.

And Grundy, if you watched the bulk of Collingwood's games they did not take advantage of his dominance - certainly not at centre bounces.

Nah, you're basing your theory purely on list talent. That theory particularly won't work on system based teams like your mob and the Pies.
 

Marcel Proust

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Sep 6, 2018
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Sorry for late reply, but Bont? As a sublime player as he is he is not the difference between the dogs best and worst. Same for Neale, there's a plethora of back up role types for Neale- as good as he is.

And Grundy, if you watched the bulk of Collingwood's games they did not take advantage of his dominance - certainly not at centre bounces.

Nah, you're basing your theory purely on list talent. That theory particularly won't work on system based teams like your mob and the Pies.
the last 5-10 mins of his season was very telling on grundy

i dont know about you but i am still in shock pies found a way to lose v gws and grundy has to take some responsibility when it was on the line
 

Carringbush2010

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the last 5-10 mins of his season was very telling on grundy

i dont know about you but i am still in shock pies found a way to lose v gws and grundy has to take some responsibility when it was on the line
It's not Grundy that needs to take responsibility it's the so called "best midfield of all time" (pffft that Lloyd bloke is phukin delusional) that need to take responsibility.
 

Carringbush2010

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Yeah but too many now 30 plus and rance will take someones spot who played in a flag... no good young players coming through.
No good young players coming through eh?

You are talking about Richmond right? You know the team that just won a flag with a debutante that was regarded as a worthy Norm Smith winner right?

And yeah Rance is washed up at 30. :drunk:
 

Carringbush2010

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The Pies Premiership window is starting to close. They’ll need a lot to go right in 2020 if they are to win the Premiership.
This! As much as the Pies are a good team, they don't match the other top 4 teams list wise or WC - they are system based and are heavily reliant on coaching and development to execute that system (at least the 2018 version).

I'm not writing them off from winning the flag but their window is definitely narrower than WC or giants or even Bris and Tiges, hard to dispute that. To be honest the list has been bottom half of the top 8 since 2014 - at best.

Inb4 * Grundy, Moore, Degoey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Treloar, Elliott, WHE, Stephenson - ok stellar players but not as many as the likes of the other teams I've mentioned.
 

Carringbush2010

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It was the stupidest comment I've heard all year. Geelong fans seem to excel in that area. 1) Rance will take someones spot > FMD 5 time AA. he's a lot better than Nathan Broad. 2) No young talent > Bolton, Stack, Balta, Colemen-Jones, Eggmolesse-Smith, Naish, Collier-Dawkins, Chol, Baker. Thats off the top of my head with out looking at the list. So yes. You are a clown and probably didn't deserve this detailed response.
Uh Marlion Picket? Does he come to mind? Should.
 

Carringbush2010

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Richmond, W Bulldogs and Collingwood to miss the 8.
St Kilda, Adelaide and Sydney to make it.

I just feel Richmond and Collingwood will have off years. Nothing personal against either side.
I admire your faith in our club, but we are pure garbage and ain’t going anywhere near the 8.
That is just rubbish! The talent on Melbourne's list is far underperforming - good enough to be top 4, predicting that two top 4 teams (system based I might add) will have "off" years is purely speculation.
 

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Evolved1

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Jun 14, 2013
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I love the logic, Essendon will drop out because they aren’t very good and won’t win enough games.

What’s this based on? This year when they actually did make it?

Can only see them improving next season with Smith and Daniher back and the younger group with another year under their belt.
We overachieved in 2019. I see us dropping out too.
 

Evolved1

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Jun 14, 2013
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This. Essendon kept a player who did not want to be there. Will eat at the club much like Adelaides camp.
Geelong will miss Kellys class and Joel is cooked. They may still scrape in but could see them dropping 4 games compared to last year at minimum.
Collingwood a chance to drop out too. Been up for a while.
Brisbane are on the up. GWS will click imo. Tiges are super. WCE will be 5th again. Doggies still have some bite.
Out: Cats Dons Pies. The only thing that may save them is a lack of legit challengers. Not sure outside of Hawks and Saints that anyone else is up for it. Saints most likely to be a bolter based on Ratten influence and a solid off season recruiting drive.
Making Joe stick to his contract is a step in the right direction for the club and league even if he's shit next year. If Essendon could have sold him off for more than a bag of chips, they would have.

Clearly he didn't KNOW his true value. The league has spoken. ;)

Personally, I respect the clubs stance even if he doesn't play another game in the first side. If he can't be anything more than a show pony, I'll be happy to see him play the full year pulling a blinder or two in the VFL before disappearing altogether. Good riddance.
 

Chinacats

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Sep 20, 2014
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As the title suggests.

Two-three teams every year fall out of the eight. I suggest only two next year.

So who moves backwards?
Depends on which teams can climb up. Demons should move up and st kilda a chance for 8. Probably 2 will drop out. Eagles, tigers, GWS, dogs should make finals. The other 4 are vulnerable, however cats generally get there, pies should get there. Bombers & Brisbane probably the 2.
 

iameviljez

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Can only see them improving next season with Smith and Daniher back and the younger group with another year under their belt.
I think Essendon is in a reasonable amount of trouble due to their over-reliance on Daniher. Daniher hasn't played for pretty much a year, doesn't want to be there and will be gone by season's end.
 

Baird

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Sep 3, 2012
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I love the logic, Essendon will drop out because they aren’t very good and won’t win enough games.

What’s this based on? This year when they actually did make it?

Can only see them improving next season with Smith and Daniher back and the younger group with another year under their belt.
Piss weak team with an apathetic coach
 

Shadeeq

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Jun 19, 2011
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Essendon
I think Essendon is in a reasonable amount of trouble due to their over-reliance on Daniher. Daniher hasn't played for pretty much a year, doesn't want to be there and will be gone by season's end.
We made finals without much output from Daniher. He played four games for two wins, and he didn't do a lot in those wins. So unless Daniher is even worse than that next season, we should improve with him.

Essendon is the most likely team to drop out of the eight, but I am not convinced by any of the teams below us. Hawthorn most likely, but it's hard to be confident about Melbourne after the season they just had. I don't really rate any of the other teams.
 

RichLeMonde

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Sep 26, 2019
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Geelong are vulnerable with Kelly gone, Hawkins 32 y.o halfway through the season, Ablett pretty cooked and other old or shit KPPs. If Danger missed 8 weeks with a couple of injuries they could def drop out
 

vicparksfinest

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Mar 31, 2017
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See real trouble for Essendon and Brisbane, with a harder draw for the Lions they will be be challenged a lot more.
All this call for St. Kilda to bolt into finals is ridiculous, actualy look at their list, it is woeful, albeit heading in the right direction but not going to make it in 2020.
Freo could be a bolter, Alex Pearce was a huge loss and who knows what can happen if Hogan plays the whole year.
Hawks should bounce back with Titchell back, Geelong will just scrape in because there aren’t enough challengers outside top 10.
 

Halftimehero

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 26, 2012
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I think Essendon is in a reasonable amount of trouble due to their over-reliance on Daniher. Daniher hasn't played for pretty much a year, doesn't want to be there and will be gone by season's end.
Yet they still managed to make the 8 this year with a poor start and a horror run of injuries.

He’ll play this year and he’ll play well, that can only make them a better side.
 

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