Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

[Hamingja]

So you're guaranteeing Brisbane not to drop out then? They did have a pretty good run with injuries this year.

Due to get a much harder draw too.

Only had single games against the other top 6 teams last year.

 

[AFDogs]

Brisbane are my pick to slide down the ladder, so them. Can see them having a 2019 Demons year (happy to be wrong). They're still VERY young and remind me of the Bulldogs in 2015/2016. We fell off a cliff shortly after.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Brisbane are my pick to slide down the ladder, so them. Can see them having a 2019 Demons year (happy to be wrong). They're still VERY young and remind me of the Bulldogs in 2015/2016. We fell off a cliff shortly after.

Brisbane haven't lost half their best 22 though

 

[AFDogs]

Brisbane haven't lost half their best 22 though

Melbourne didn't either.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Melbourne didn't either.

I still think their list is much more promising than Melbourne's. Also my comment was more replying to Brisbane reminding you of 2015/16 dogs, yet there are different reasons for the falls of both teams.

 

[Coach_Required]

Was going through the stats over the past 8 seasons and surprisingly the team that finishes 5th at the end of the regular season has missed finals the following year 6 times out of 8.

Can't see West Coast missing the 8 next year with their current list so more than likely it will be 6 out of 9? The next worst position is 8th, missing 4 out of 8 years.

Another stat I worked out was in the past 8 years, 6 times there were actually 3 teams that missed the 8 not 2, so maybe the thread title should be updated to Which 3 teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?



I also looked at what position teams that finished outside the 8 made the finals the following year:



So just on a probability basis I will say

Out:
West Coast
GWS
Essendon

In:
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Fremantle

 

[Danog]

Only Essendon is a certainty

 

[GoldStandard]

Only Essendon is a certainty

Ins: Daniher, Smith, the ball movement guru
Outs: ?

 

[The_torpedo]

Essendon are my first pick to drop out.

My second one I honestly feel might be GWS.

 

[Shanghaistu]

Essendon have been borderline 8 (at best) for years and I can't see that changing. OUT.

Brisbane 2020 have Melbourne 2019 written all over them. By the way, I think they got excused way too lightly for dropping consecutive home finals. OUT.

Interesting that already people are mentioning Collingwood. I think they look pretty solid but the wildcard could be the unsettling effect if negotiations drag on for Grundy-DeGoey-Moore.

I think this is spot on the money. Wish it were otherwise but our fortunes are resting on key players that don’t want to be there and a coaching transition that gives both coaches a “get-out-of-jail-free” card for 2020....

 

[Marmozet]

GWS are one for mine.

I don't see them coming back from that Grand Final drubbing anytime soon.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I don't think the 8 will change much next year. Hawthorn are the only team i am confident will push for a spot.

I think Brisbane could be a chance to miss. They depend so much on Cameron who will get more attention. They will miss Hodge. Who in their team will improve significantly? And they will have a harder fixture.

 

[GoldStandard]

I don't think the 8 will change much next year. Hawthorn are the only team i am confident will push for a spot.

I think Brisbane could be a chance to miss. They depend so much on Cameron who will get more attention. They will miss Hodge. Who in their team will improve significantly? And they will have a harder fixture.

I think Brisbane will have a good home ground advantage next year. The Gabba crowd really gets behind them when they're going well. Maybe blokes like McCluggage, Witherden and Rayner will improve. They're a pretty solid team all around.

 

[Freomaniac]

the ones most likely to drop out are Brisbane, Essendon and Bulldogs.

That is only my opinion

Essendon this year basically stumbled into 8th spot with 12 wins and a % of 95%

Essendon last season got 12 wins and had a % of 105.1% and finished 11th.

Stats wise the Essendon 2018 side was marginally better than 2019.

Shows you how crazy the ladder has been in the last couple of years.

.

 

[Monument Hills]

Essendon likely. Brisbane maybe based on the difficulty in sustaining the great draw, low inj., and little attention (and no General Hodge) of 2019. Smokey GWS after the complete embarassment in the GF - that's got to hurt mentally.

Inj. aside - top 3 in 2020 (in no particular order) Richmond, WC, Collingwood

 

[Catsnlakers]

Essendon & Brisbane for mine....I see the media attention on the coaching handover, & the possible departures of Daniher & Fantasia playing a negative role for the Dons next year. And with Brisbane, I see a team now dealing with great expectations & a much harder draw being brought back to the pack.

 

[JayJ20]

Essendon and Geelong
If I had to pick a third, then I’d say maybe Brisbane with a harder fixture and likely more injuries.

 

[4THAWN]

Richmond, West Coast and the Bulldogs seem to safest bets to stay in the 8 next year for me.

Probably GWS, Geelong and Brisbane the next 3.

Leaves Essendon and Collingwood as the 2 most likely to fall out of the 8 for me.

Collingwood - think they could have missed the boat with their flag window. Unless Reid/Cox comes good as a key forward think their quite weak there.

Essendon - inside midfield weakness

 

[_Mike_]

I think Essendon might slip out, to be replaced by Hawthorn. I can’t see Collingwood dropping out, but I can see the Cats in danger of sliding too.

 

[master bate]

Pies are interesting. I'd probably have them the 4th best list behind Richmond, GWS, WCE.

But there's a few valid questions:

1. Depth/age/fitness of important players
- Aish traded out
- Greenwood out for the year ACL
- Varcoe/Reid both old and outside the 22, same with Dunn if he stays on.
- Pendles 32
- Mayne 31
- Beams 30 and unsure future
- Howe 29/30
- Roughead 29, Mason Cox 29 - unsure of the quality of both of those guys and the depth behind them
- Sidebottom the worlds oldest 29
- Scharenberg and Elliott both under injury clouds for the rest of their careers

2. Contract years De Goey and Moore - do they hold up and how do they perform? (Not so worried about Grundy).

3. Losing Justin Longmuir - a very important assistant.

If the Pies get near the top 4 next year I'd expect to see a healthy and impressive dose of some of their younger players pushing up. Need some good games out of Nathan Murphy/Quaynor/Sier/Appleby/Tyler Brown etc.

 

[emuboy]

Geelong and Essendon out, Hawthorn and Melbourne in.

 

[Tiger2709]

got Richmond as the only top 4 certainity

WCE have just added Tim Kelly, anything can happen but after last years choke against the Hawks I would expect them to bounce back be top 4 minimum.

 

[roacheee]

Richmond and Collingwood I would have thought.

Care to put money on that?

 

[roacheee]

Ins: Daniher, Smith, the ball movement guru
Outs: ?

Outs: finals

 

[Ok Boomer]

Care to put money on that?

Well I had already put my savings on some insecure Richmond supporter responding, so cheers champ.