Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

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AuntyBlindEye

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I guess it's one of those things where people don't really pay as much attention to oppo teams as their own because I'd say the same about Geelong/most other clubs, but when I look at my own team I reckon we have a bunch of talent coming through.

I don't think we have that many over 30 either do we? Rance, cotch, jack... Maybe Edwards? Not good with ages.
Yeah but too many now 30 plus and rance will take someones spot who played in a flag... no good young players coming through.
 

WWSD

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Out of all the teams that made the top eight in 2019 the Western Bulldogs have the most scope for improvement.

The Pies Premiership window is starting to close. They’ll need a lot to go right in 2020 if they are to win the Premiership.

Greater Western Sydney have the best “best 22” in the league, however they lack depth outside their best 22.

I think Geelong will do fine without Kelly because his loss will be offset by the Cats three high draft picks.

West Coast are the biggest challenger to Richmond and might be the only team that can realistically stop them from going back to back.
 

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threesixpio

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People should be open to being wrong - preseason predictions don’t normally go well.

Geelong’s midfield used to be its strength. Losing Kelly and Selwood aging doesn’t help. But who knows - sometimes young players get opportunities and kill it. You cannot underestimate a good culture, development coaching and good coaching strategy. They could surprise again and turn it around.

Speaking of which Essendon and GWS ...

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Niggles

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Nothing like playing the ball!
It was the stupidest comment I've heard all year. Geelong fans seem to excel in that area. 1) Rance will take someones spot > FMD 5 time AA. he's a lot better than Nathan Broad. 2) No young talent > Bolton, Stack, Balta, Colemen-Jones, Eggmolesse-Smith, Naish, Collier-Dawkins, Chol, Baker. Thats off the top of my head with out looking at the list. So yes. You are a clown and probably didn't deserve this detailed response.
 

Virgin Dog

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Essendon seems the obvious candidate for dropping out of the 8, but picking the second team is a lot harder. I think we could see a bit of a surprise (like Melbourne this year) and have someone like Brisbane or Collingwood tank immensely.

As for their replacements, Hawks are the most obvious choice - in fact I'd be surprised if they didn't make the 8. The second spot could end up another surprise. Someone like Fremantle, if things go right (i.e. Hogan and Pearce stay fit especially), could end up threatening for a top 8 spot. Sydney could rebound quickly too
 

rogiebear93

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It was the stupidest comment I've heard all year. Geelong fans seem to excel in that area. 1) Rance will take someones spot > FMD 5 time AA. he's a lot better than Nathan Broad. 2) No young talent > Bolton, Stack, Balta, Colemen-Jones, Eggmolesse-Smith, Naish, Collier-Dawkins, Chol, Baker. Thats off the top of my head with out looking at the list. So yes. You are a clown and probably didn't deserve this detailed response.
I don't dislike Richmond, so I'm just saying this for balance.

Bolton, Stack, Balta, Higgins and maybe Baker are the only 4-5 in there I'd have as genuine young talent. The others could be good but haven't shown it at the top level. That's still a good amount and more than Geelong.
 
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rogiebear93

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It's difficult to see Geelong missing finals entirely with the quality of midfield that they have, but they won't be close to the team they were this year and will be at risk of having a season that could see them fall out of the top 8.

Selwood, Dangerfield, Ablett, Tuohy, Taylor, Hawkins are a dangerous combination of being too old and too important.
 

Niggles

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I don't dislike Richmond, so I'm just saying this for balance.

Bolton, Stack, Balta, Higgins and maybe Baker are the only 4-5 in there I'd have as genuine young talent. The others could be good but haven't shown it at the top level. That's still a good amount and more than Geelong.
Well that's fair enough as you probably don't follow Richmonds VFL team very closely. But Coleman-jones in particular is going to come on the scene next season in way way or another. A very promising ruck/forward who is far too good for VFL now. I can see him replacing Nank or Soldo a fair bit next year.

I reckon Naish will grab a spot on the wing too. We have very promising youth hence the VFL flag as well.

Anyway, better get back on topic before someone else has a sook that we make everything about Richmond. I can't imagine the tiges falling out. hopefully get even better.

Essendon likely to fall and I believe Brisbane may come back to the pack also. But its all just a wild guess really. I've come to expect the unexpected after the last 3 years.
 

Captain chaos

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It was the stupidest comment I've heard all year. Geelong fans seem to excel in that area. 1) Rance will take someones spot > FMD 5 time AA. he's a lot better than Nathan Broad. 2) No young talent > Bolton, Stack, Balta, Colemen-Jones, Eggmolesse-Smith, Naish, Collier-Dawkins, Chol, Baker. Thats off the top of my head with out looking at the list. So yes. You are a clown and probably didn't deserve this detailed response.

Gee .. still abusing me. Any club couod name a list of largely unproven talent like u did.

You are assuming you will get the old rance back , who at 30 with a knee poses a doubt there.
 

tiger_tough

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Yeah but too many now 30 plus and rance will take someones spot who played in a flag... no good young players coming through.
:tearsofjoy:

I guess it's one of those things where people don't really pay as much attention to oppo teams as their own because I'd say the same about Geelong/most other clubs, but when I look at my own team I reckon we have a bunch of talent coming through.

I don't think we have that many over 30 either do we? Rance, cotch, jack... Maybe Edwards? Not good with ages.
Houli, Edwards, Rance, Riewoldt.
 

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SMSBF

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Great Question.
tough comp. cant see most of the 8 dropping off. another year yet for cats and pies. 2021 maybe then the cats finally drop. but not 2020.

so, Given all things go equal ...

out: wce and ess
in: hawks and saints

eagles missing will surprise a few. but just think how old they are getting. Got Kelly but will that mess with the harmony? nicnat forever injured. rioli gone. masten gone. kennedy on last legs. darling/cripps overated. good but can they hold key posi's for top 8 side? jetta losing speed. idk just get the feeling they wont be all out. hard draw, won a lucky flag so are they content? id say so.

essendon - yeah not liking team balance. two injuries away from no defent key forward and ruck. overated midfield and woosha has made them too outside.

-------

hawks will be back. mitchell back. look at their form into last rounds. amazing.

saints - biased. but with vip leaders back and hill/hanneberry/billings/steele/ross we have good team balance and depth.
We will sneak into the 8 with favourable draw.
 

Socrates2

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Geelong would be if they didn't have such a huge home ground advantage, with TK gone and an ageing team, it's a good time for Geelong to hit the draft.
Essendon are the obvious choice because of the lack of depth and team disharmony.
I'll say GWS, it's common for a thrashed grand final team to slide down the ladder. Reminds me a bit of what happened to Melbourne after kicking two goals against WC last prelim.
 

_Rake_

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"The 8" lol.

Mediocre teams will always make a finals system that is nearly half the league. Who will drop out? It's anybody's guess, maybe none, or maybe more than two. Could be a transition year for Essendon so I'd suggest them, along with maybe GWS?

It really is anyone's guess though to be honest.
 

iameviljez

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I think Geelong will do fine without Kelly because his loss will be offset by the Cats three high draft picks.
Very few first-year draftees have the kind of impact that actually lifts a team near finals contention.

The reality is, that our prime movers last year were really Kelly, Danger, Hawkins, Selwood, Stewart, Blicavs and Ablett.

One of those players is gone, and most are over thirty. We've done pretty well in terms of making the most of limited resources, but next year is a very interesting one.
 

Tygrys

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Gee .. still abusing me. Any club couod name a list of largely unproven talent like u did.
Yes but not every club can claim they won the 2019 VFL premiership on the back of their young talent. Only Richmond can do that. Whether they’ll all make it or not who knows, but they seem to be tracking at least as well as any other group of kids in the competition.
Those pining their hopes that we’ll fall off the cliff in the near future because of a dearth of quality kids simply haven’t been watching our reserve side.
 

ep2018

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OUT: Essendon (lucky to have played finals this year with a few close results going their way), Geelong (just a weird feeling despite being minor premiers)
IN: Hawthorn (good end to 2019 and with Mitchell back and superb trade period), Fremantle (good list and they are due despite a new coach)

North and Sydney unlucky to miss.
 

Captain chaos

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Yes but not every club can claim they won the 2019 VFL premiership on the back of their young talent. Only Richmond can do that. Whether they’ll all make it or not who knows, but they seem to be tracking at least as well as any other group of kids in the competition.
Those pining their hopes that we’ll fall off the cliff in the near future because of a dearth of quality kids simply haven’t been watching our reserve side.

I am not "pining" for anything but the vfl flag was also courtesy of butler, pickett, townsend etc not just young kids
 

Grin

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Geelong and Eagles only miss the finals on very down years because of their home ground advantage.
Bulldogs have been gifted an incredibly soft draw considering where they finished.
Richmond unlikely to miss with current form.
GWS just seem to have too much talent to miss.
So any of Essendon, Collingwood, Brisbane.
 

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