Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

Grin

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Geelong and Eagles only miss the finals on very down years because of their home ground advantage.
Bulldogs have been gifted an incredibly soft draw considering where they finished.
Richmond unlikely to miss with current form.
GWS just seem to have too much talent to miss.
So any of Essendon, Collingwood, Brisbane.
 

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Freshwater

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Geelong and Eagles only miss the finals on very down years because of their home ground advantage.
Bulldogs have been gifted an incredibly soft draw considering where they finished.
Richmond unlikely to miss with current form.
GWS just seem to have too much talent to miss.
So any of Essendon, Collingwood, Brisbane.
Soft draw for the Bulldogs??? Coming from a Richmond supporter, where you get 500 games in a row at the MCG! We get two games a year there, where finals are played.
 

Captain chaos

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Soft draw for the Bulldogs??? Coming from a Richmond supporter, where you get 500 games in a row at the MCG! We get two games a year there, where finals are played.

Do they play any more games there than coll or melb? Its not tgeir fault half their opponents have it as their home ground.

I never heard a word about rich and rge G till they became a good side.
 

BG__

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Bombers the closest thing to a lock of dropping out imo.

Can see cats/pies sliding this year but not sure it'll be enough to drop out.

Brisbane could have overachieved last season and do a 2 steps forward 1 step back kind of situation, but i don't think so

Doggies will probably be pushing for top 4 imo, but chucking them on here just because they can be so streaky during the season.

GWS/Tigers/Eagles should all be safe.
 

boncer34

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Stewart is one of those guys whose reputation grows with every game he misses.

How on earth is he a crucial in? What does he do better than Mitch Brown did? He'll be 26 at least the next time he plays senior AFL with 45 games and 55 goals to his name, doesn't take a lot of marks, not much of a back up ruckman etc.

Smith and Daniher, absolutely.
He also got dropped for Brown last time he was fit.
 

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Mick F

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Soft draw for the Bulldogs??? Coming from a Richmond supporter, where you get 500 games in a row at the MCG! We get two games a year there, where finals are played.
I thought the discussion was around who was going to win enough home and away games to make the finals?
 

Tygrys

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I am not "pining" for anything but the vfl flag was also courtesy of butler, pickett, townsend etc not just young kids
Doesn't invalidate anything I wrote. Every team has a cohort of fringe senior players as regulars in the reserves, just like every team has a crop of young developing players coming through. But only one team won the 2019 VFL premiership and our youth played a critical role in this. Moreover this was on the back of 2018 clean-out of the likes of Conca, Miles, C. Ellis and Lloyd, all AFL listed players important to our reserves side (and whom many non-Richmond people were describing as critical depth that we couldn't afford to lose).

In fact if there is any concern among Richmond people about our youth, it's not that they aren't good enough but rather there is a chance that they'll be starved of opportunity and choose to look elsewhere. That is a real concern for many of us. Anyhow anyone thinking that Richmond has 'no good young players coming through' is either indulging in wishful thinking or (or more likely to be fair in your case as an opposition supporter) just doesn't know.
 

Farang83150

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Soft draw for the Bulldogs??? Coming from a Richmond supporter, where you get 500 games in a row at the MCG! We get two games a year there, where finals are played.
It makes no difference how many games in a row richmond get at the g, we know because they told us all.
 

Yippy Yi Yeo

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Great Question.
tough comp. cant see most of the 8 dropping off. another year yet for cats and pies. 2021 maybe then the cats finally drop. but not 2020.

so, Given all things go equal ...

out: wce and ess
in: hawks and saints

eagles missing will surprise a few. but just think how old they are getting. Got Kelly but will that mess with the harmony? nicnat forever injured. rioli gone. masten gone. kennedy on last legs. darling/cripps overated. good but can they hold key posi's for top 8 side? jetta losing speed. idk just get the feeling they wont be all out. hard draw, won a lucky flag so are they content? id say so.

essendon - yeah not liking team balance. two injuries away from no defent key forward and ruck. overated midfield and woosha has made them too outside.

-------

hawks will be back. mitchell back. look at their form into last rounds. amazing.

saints - biased. but with vip leaders back and hill/hanneberry/billings/steele/ross we have good team balance and depth.
We will sneak into the 8 with favourable draw.
You don't watch many west coast games clearly. Kelly in pushes gaff back predominantly to a wing where he belongs, effectively replacing masten with gaff, and gaff with kelly who is a far better inside mid than gaff. He also kicks a goal a game. Masten played a role but was often a liability. Cameron kicked 1.6 goals a game in his first year and will only improve next year, won't be of the same quality as Rioli but will be able to play the role competently. Kennedy "on his last legs" still kicked 50 goals despite having no preseason due to surgery. Next year will be the first time in several years that he has a full preseason so definitely don't go writing him off yet, and even if he doesn't improve there isn't many players who kick 50 goals a year, let alone 2 in the same forward line. Darling and Cripps definitely aren't overrated. Jetta's loss of speed isn't an issue and hasn't been for a couple of years since they moved him from a wing to the backline for his kicking skills which are still some of the best in the AFL. Naitanui also playing his first preseason in years, and while he was injured after returning from his ACL last year, it was an impact injury not soft tissue and there's no reason he can't play most of the season next year with a bit of luck.
 

JackFlash

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Bombers for sure, then the Eagles, Giants and Pies will all get the jitters at some point during the year!
 

GoGeta

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Agree . Their recruiting has been average . Rohan Dalhous Stevens Jenkins, b or c graders , same as Stanley tuohy . With Kelly our it’s hood night Geelong .
Go CATTERS


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Who ever claimed any of these guys were A graders/game changes to begin with?

It's our youth that will bring improvement if there is to be any, not any of those stop gap players you mentioned..

Ratugolea, Henry, Miers, Parfitt, Narkle, Constable, Clarke.
 
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Richo83

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Even when Daniher was clicking as a forward, the side still only won 12 games. Yes, they have more pieces now, but the bombers are a less than the sum of their parts team.

Brisbane, not sure. Their fixture isn't that hard, and there's a lot of talent to blossom. They are however thin on some areas, KPFs in particular, which got exposed on the weekend. Teams now know that the key to shutting down their forwardline is shutting down Cameron. They're also not that great at shutting down small forwards given the finals series.

Footscray's draw is somewhat difficult, playing Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane, Fremantle and Carlton twice. Three finalists and one team with a fresh coach ready to propel them into the finals. They're really young though and have room to grow.

Geelong I think are a risk. Kelly was a mainstay of their midfield and Ablett who was their second highest goalkicker is powering down. Dangerfield, who was their fourth will have to play more minutes in the midfield to cover Kelly's loss. They won 16 games this year but with the rise of other clubs, I can see them winning 12 and missing out like four clubs did in 2018. None of their kids are gun inside midfield prospects either meaning their ability to fix the middle which is the most important part of the ground is limited.

Collingwod may drop off merely due to losing belief in the ability to win. They're been up for two seasons straight only to lose in dramatic fashion. That has to take its toll.

Richmond, GWS and West Coast look safe. Would be strange for Richmond to drop out on the back of a flag and 13 wins on the trot, but stranger things have happened.

As for who replaces them, Hawthorn have recruited well and will improve with Mitchell back. I think an injection of youth will do Adelaide a world of good, especially under a new coach who has little to prove. St Kilda have made 56 thousand moves in the off-season, maybe they all click? Maybe Melbourne learn to mark the ball in their forwardline? Maybe Sydney and Fremantle improve to make the finals, given their fairly talented sides?
 

BruceTempany14

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Who ever claimed any of these guys were A graders/game changes to begin with?

It's our youth that will bring improvement if there is to be any, not any of those stop gap players you mentioned..

Ratugolea, Henry, Miers, Parfitt, Narkle, Constable, Clarke.
Apart from Henry & narkle that rest of group won’t be playing afl in 4 years time . Sorry , but the future is bleak .
My thinking is that the core of your great sides is going or gone , those kids you mention whilst appearing to be ok will not develop further , even with genus of The Richmond plant , Grigg and Knights .


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BruceTempany14

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Bombers for sure, then the Eagles, Giants and Pies will all get the jitters at some point during the year!
Thus hurts but I reckon the dons will have a great season in 2020. The list is too good to be crapola again . Just a feeling .
Go CATTERS


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Kangas_11

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Who ever claimed any of these guys were A graders/game changes to begin with?

It's our youth that will bring improvement if there is to be any, not any of those stop gap players you mentioned..

Ratugolea, Henry, Miers, Parfitt, Narkle, Constable, Clarke.
Apart from Henry & narkle that rest of group won’t be playing afl in 4 years time . Sorry , but the future is bleak .
I've seen some dumb calls on BigFooty in my time, but this is up there with the best of them.

I would be shocked if even 1 of those players wasn't playing in 4 years time, every single one looks to be at least a 100+ game player for the Cats.

Geelong will likely drop down a bit when the older brigade retires, but it's not like the cupboard is bare when it comes to youth.
 

BruceTempany14

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I've seen some dumb calls on BigFooty in my time, but this is up there with the best of them.

I would be shocked if even 1 of those players wasn't playing in 4 years time, every single one looks to be at least a 100+ game player for the Cats.

Geelong will likely drop down a bit when the older brigade retires, but it's not like the cupboard is bare when it comes to youth.
Didn’t say the cupboard was bare . Just said that IMO only 2 of the players nominated , would be a real , long term player. I think most clubs would take that outcome as a baseline.

Seen this so many times , people going out of the blocks early on players .

Hey , but Thanks for the vote of confidence in my post . Banked .

Go CATTERS


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JackFlash

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Thus hurts but I reckon the dons will have a great season in 2020. The list is too good to be crapola again . Just a feeling .
Go CATTERS


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Well, none of us know anything! We have 10 teams who missed the 8 in 2019 who could all do a Brisbane and be in contention...
 

BruceTempany14

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Agree 100 %. I reckon it’s Essendon turn , they’re due . A feeling the Dees will bounce back. Arrrgghhh it too hard !!!


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