Which way for the pies?

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Don’t see them finishing above 8th tbh. Making up the numbers.


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PieLebo87 said:
I personally don’t see 4 clubs overtaking the Pies in 2023. Who are the clubs you reckon will overtake the Pies and why?
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Lions, Dees, Richmond got amazing recruits. We beat you last year as well.

Geelong & Sydney are just better, don’t think I need to explain that.

I have faith in Carlton to do it they have better cattle and Voss is a great coach

So then you are battling it out with Freo for 7th which i say is pretty close to 50/50 but you just finished above them on the ladder with the freak run of 11 close wins or something. If you average it out you don’t even make the 8. I don’t think you’ll see that streak again next year.

I also don’t believe McStay and Tom Mitchell will improve your side enough to overcome these abovementioned teams.


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Falcon3518 said:
Lions, Dees, Richmond got amazing recruits. We beat you last year as well.

Geelong & Sydney are just better, don’t think I need to explain that.

I have faith in Carlton to do it they have better cattle and Voss is a great coach

So then you are battling it out with Freo for 7th which i say is pretty close to 50/50 but you just finished above them on the ladder with the freak run of 11 close wins or something. If you average it out you don’t even make the 8. I don’t think you’ll see that streak again next year.

I also don’t believe McStay and Tom Mitchell will improve your side enough to overcome these abovementioned teams.


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I love watching you flip-flop
 
Fadge said:
I think the Tigers should watch out for North Melbourne. They had the best recruit of the off-season (Clarkson), and beat Richmond in 2022.
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We were bloody embarrassing aye haha. Almost broke my tv that game.


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Dynamics said:
Dont forget, he has faith in Carlton. And Crazy Vossy is a "great".

Irrefutable.
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They made heaps of progress with just 1 year of his coaching. They were also injury ridden in the second half of the season. Bar injuries I don’t see how they don’t finish above you. I think it’s reasonable and popular opinion tbh.

Pies supporters deep down know they won’t get that fluky run of close game wins next year.


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Also for those thinking I’m being unfair, here is the Sportsbet odds for the 2023 flag. I take it with a grain of salt but old mate fadge would have to agree with this. Pies finishing 6th with Carlton 7th, so yeah it’s next and neck and I’m just flipping them that’s all.. IMG_5802.JPG


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Pies are in genuine premiership contention next year IMO (from someone that has absolutely no vested interest in them)

They fixed us up twice last year.
 
the pies chance to win the flag was this year. The amount of luck that they got with close wins will never be repeated. If they lost those close ones, they finish 10th-11th. Their best is good, their worst is bottom 4.
 
Falcon3518 said:
Also for those thinking I’m being unfair, here is the Sportsbet odds for the 2023 flag. I take it with a grain of salt but old mate fadge would have to agree with this. Pies finishing 6th with Carlton 7th, so yeah it’s next and neck and I’m just flipping them that’s all..View attachment 1552745


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Do you have the odds for the 2022 season from November 2021?
 

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When the bookies are paying $5.50 and $7 for the top 2 favourites, I think even they have NFI what will happen and are guesstimating.
 
Falcon3518 said:
They made heaps of progress with just 1 year of his coaching. They were also injury ridden in the second half of the season. Bar injuries I don’t see how they don’t finish above you. I think it’s reasonable and popular opinion tbh.

Pies supporters deep down know they won’t get that fluky run of close game wins next year.


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Heaps of progress with just one year of coaching. You're right, I wish we could say something like that about Collingwood under Fly.

Oh wait...


(Caveat: I have no idea how we'll go next year... Your description of Voss as "great" just made me chuckle)
 
Dynamics said:
Heaps of progress with just one year of coaching. You're right, I wish we could say something like that about Collingwood under Fly.

Oh wait...


(Caveat: I have no idea how we'll go next year... Your description of Voss as "great" just made me chuckle)
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Fly has peaked. He’s copied our style and won’t think of anything new. Guaranteed you won’t change your gameplan next year and you don’t have the cattle. Voss is doing something new.


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Even with the extra game next season I can't see the pies having 16 wins like this season pies ended up after home and away 16W 6L. Given all those close games nearly exclusively went the pies way, they'd have to head south on the ladder vs this season you'd have to think.
 
Last edited:
Seattle Mariners said:
Pies are in genuine premiership contention next year IMO (from someone that has absolutely no vested interest in them)

They fixed us up twice last year.
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Last year the GF was anyones who come good during finals, there was no absolute stand out team, I still rate Melbournes list the best, but they don't seem to want to deliver, maybe next year is different.

Collingwood are a chance yep, they are also a chance to go backwards too, same with a lot of clubs up there.
 
Falcon3518 said:
Yes but odds are on my side though. That’s as good as it gets right now, a probable 6th-7th place finish.


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You’re quoting premiership odds, not a market by Sportsbet for ladder positions. If you were going by the argument that market had anything to do with projected ladder positions, there’d be a gap between the top 4 favourites and everyone else considering top 4 gets a double chance. Stop clutching at straws.
 
PieLebo87 said:
You’re quoting premiership odds, not a market by Sportsbet for ladder positions. If you were going by the argument that market had anything to do with projected ladder positions, there’d be a gap between the top 4 favourites and everyone else considering top 4 gets a double chance. Stop clutching at straws.
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At this point in time because we are so far away it means the same. Premiership odds = end of season placement based on what the betting markets and punters think. Top 4 finishes are taken into account as you can see from the $9 drop to $8. I don’t think they’ve opened up now but top 4 bets from what I’ve seen in the past also mirror the premiership odds ladder before the season starts.


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Fadge said:
As an experienced, educated, knowledgable data analysyt, what are the odds of the odds being 'spot on' in 2023?
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What place is ‘spot on’ genius? You really have no clue about maths f me 🤣. Can’t even ask a proper question


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