Who creates Australian betting markets?

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chrisdon16

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Always been interested to know who comes up with all local betting markets for local sports, AFL, NRL etc. Also what is the process, I've noticed Sportsbet are the first to release markets, then the rest release theirs that are very similar. To me it's very intriguing and would like to hear anyone's knowledge in this field.
 

GROTTO

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Just absolute guessing here, but I presume data is obtained from historical records, that is used to frame markets, I presume one book has a team of statisticians that produce all the markets which is probably copied/adjusted by the rest with their own "experts"?
 

iluvparis

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TAB are almost always first up with racing fixed odds markets - I assume they would employ form analysts/price assessors that come up with a rough idea of the market based on nominations and then adjust accordingly when the final field comes out.
 

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Bucking Bronco

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Yeah, I believe what Grot said pretty much.

There's one book responsible for being the originator of the odds. SB would make sense as they're the biggest in Aus, and as you said, they apparently have the odds out first.

Probably a team of however many who use a model that is proven over the stretch to be accurate to a certain percentage over the course of a season.

Then the rest who have maybe one guy doing odds adjust them due to their own leans or to balance their books.

Main things that affect odds are home ground advantage and personnel changes, as well as recent form; weather as well if it's pertinent.

Also odds offered by places like SB are not necessarily a reflection of their opinion on the likelihood of the teams chances of winning and losing. They also price them to an extent based on the amount of money they expect to be able to get on both sides at certain odds.

Also, they rely on sharps action early in the week to give indications as to what odds are off, and then may adjust based off that.

Learnt all this from a podcast from a top punter from the US, not my own info, haha.
 

99 Problems

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Funnily enough Bet365 are the first up with prices for the majority of racing. It’s very noticeable if they don’t go up for a meeting because no one else will go up until they do. TAB go first with the majority of metro thoroughbreds but I believe Sportsbet still frame their own markets on most of those. The market just immediately reacts if there’s any major discrepancy. Closing prices are essentially entirely set by Betfair.

I don’t think any major book in Australia does there own sports markets anymore outside of promo/novelty markets. They adjust prices manually and some live trade here still, but 99% of their markets come from external providers. There’s a few bigger players in that market so depending on who that book go with determines their opening price and when they go up. If you see books with identical market types/wording that generally lets you know they are using the same provider.
 

mouncey2franklin

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Excellent thread. I've also wondered about this.

Always figured SB and others have their own teams of market makers, who get paid bonuses based on certain metrics.

From there the odds come in or go out based on action and comparisons with other books.

But I'm just guessing. Could be way off.
 

chrisdon16

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I don’t think any major book in Australia does there own sports markets anymore outside of promo/novelty markets.
Surely they do for Aus sports?

There was something on SEN a few days ago about how AFL betting is huge in China & Japan which surprised me. Probably getting more popular in the US too.

"Also odds offered by places like SB are not necessarily a reflection of their opinion on the likelihood of the teams chances of winning and losing. They also price them to an extent based on the amount of money they expect to be able to get on both sides at certain odds."

Was thinking the same. Wouldn't surprise me if they just released the AFL odds without even doing any modeling just to create beta on both sides. All they want is bets on both sides then change accordingly as you said.
 

iluvparis

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"Also odds offered by places like SB are not necessarily a reflection of their opinion on the likelihood of the teams chances of winning and losing. They also price them to an extent based on the amount of money they expect to be able to get on both sides at certain odds."

Was thinking the same. Wouldn't surprise me if they just released the AFL odds without even doing any modeling just to create beta on both sides. All they want is bets on both sides then change accordingly as you said.
This is a tautology
 

NonPhixion

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Funnily enough Bet365 are the first up with prices for the majority of racing. It’s very noticeable if they don’t go up for a meeting because no one else will go up until they do. TAB go first with the majority of metro thoroughbreds but I believe Sportsbet still frame their own markets on most of those. The market just immediately reacts if there’s any major discrepancy. Closing prices are essentially entirely set by Betfair.

I don’t think any major book in Australia does there own sports markets anymore outside of promo/novelty markets. They adjust prices manually and some live trade here still, but 99% of their markets come from external providers. There’s a few bigger players in that market so depending on who that book go with determines their opening price and when they go up. If you see books with identical market types/wording that generally lets you know they are using the same provider.
Yes, I know with Greyhounds 365 are always first to put up odds, usually a day before every other book too
 

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Bucking Bronco

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Yeah, I cannot believe that the AFL odds would come from outside of Aus. It might be someone contracted by SB who gets first dibs rather than them themselves coming up with them internally, but I highly doubt they're coming from outside the border.

Even if there is action in Asia, it's still gotta be pretty much a niche sport, and you'd have to think people within Australia who have grown up with the game and been involved with it for decades would be best equipped to set lines.

Horse racing, yeah could come from outside as it is a sport that is understood and popular all around the world, indigenous sports to Aus not so much.

NFL and NBA odds and the like would just be copied from US bookmakers.
 

99 Problems

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Surely they do for Aus sports?
No not for most markets. Almost entirely outsourced to companies who provide the markets, pricing and resulting of markets. They will have some niche markets on AFL etc. that they price and create in-house but they don’t have the resources to do most markets themselves. They would have thousands of markets up on site at any point in time.

Most trading staff at modern corps are fresh out of uni kids employed for basic maths/computing skills. They rely on client profiling to make money these days rather than efficient markets. A lot of legacy staff from actual bookmaking days have long been moved on.
 

Hamingja

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Even if there is action in Asia, it's still gotta be pretty much a niche sport, and you'd have to think people within Australia who have grown up with the game and been involved with it for decades would be best equipped to set lines.
The money from Asia would just be Australians using Asian exchanges via brokers. People that can't get on with bookmakers here. People that want to avoid AFL/Cricket Australia "integrity units" seeing what they bet on etc.

The initial lines would all be set based off modelling so would need people with high level statistics skills rather than football knowledge.
 

54Dogs

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Most trading staff at modern corps are fresh out of uni kids employed for basic maths/computing skills. They rely on client profiling to make money these days rather than efficient markets. A lot of legacy staff from actual bookmaking days have long been moved on.
100%

Bookmaking now is about risk profiling and automating markets to stay XX% behind BF
 

SirBont

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Surely they do for Aus sports?

There was something on SEN a few days ago about how AFL betting is huge in China & Japan which surprised me. Probably getting more popular in the US too.

"Also odds offered by places like SB are not necessarily a reflection of their opinion on the likelihood of the teams chances of winning and losing. They also price them to an extent based on the amount of money they expect to be able to get on both sides at certain odds."

Was thinking the same. Wouldn't surprise me if they just released the AFL odds without even doing any modeling just to create beta on both sides. All they want is bets on both sides then change accordingly as you said.
do you know where I could find it mate would be worth a listen
 

chrisdon16

@AFLsystembet
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They rely on client profiling to make money these days rather than efficient markets. A lot of legacy staff from actual bookmaking days have long been moved on.
Yep. So what exactly are they looking for. Are they limiting punters who have good wining percentage regardless of betting amount, or punters who are betting large amounts?
 

99 Problems

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Yep. So what exactly are they looking for. Are they limiting punters who have good wining percentage regardless of betting amount, or punters who are betting large amounts?
Essentially people who win, but they look at different things to indicate whether people will win long term of if it’s just short term variance. With racing they’ll look to see how often and by how much you can consistently beat the SP. If you keep taking $10 on things that jump $6 you’ll likely lose that account compared to someone who bets at the jump but has a good few months and gets in front. Long term the numbers say they’ll get that money back.

Sport is similar, if you are continually on the right side of closing lines/points totals you’re in trouble. Just backing a few winners won’t really worry them.

Bet size only matters mostly on niche markets like say player disposals etc. The other way you’ll lose an account with bet size is you’re average bet is $20 or $50 and every now and again you have $500 or $1000 on something, they’ll assume that bet is for/from someone else.

I don’t like much about modern corps philosophies but it’s important to understand how they work as punters to give ourselves the best chance.
 

54Dogs

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Yep. So what exactly are they looking for. Are they limiting punters who have good wining percentage regardless of betting amount, or punters who are betting large amounts?
They are profiling based on behaviour not amount

- Consistently beating the closing line
- Arbing
- Betting odd amounts ($272-13 etc)
- Betting inconsistent amounts ($20 then $500)
- Betting into irregular markets without a consistent pattern (3rd div Romanian lacrosse)
- Promo scalping and betting no other markets
 

GROTTO

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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Was thinking the same. Wouldn't surprise me if they just released the AFL odds without even doing any modeling just to create beta on both sides. All they want is bets on both sides then change accordingly as you said.
Some of these lazy books I have noticed are having the same price for A grade players to kick 2 goals, B grade and C grade etc.
 

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