Who do you think will or want to win the 2017 flag?

Who will win the flag?


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True, but when we last met in a final it was all over by quarter time. Not sure if we could conjure that again, but it was devastating to watch.
In fairness the new Louie Vuitton Range of Handbags were on display that night so there were extenuating circumstances.
 

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Rotayjay

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The Contenders (1-3)
Sydney (1): I'd have them favourites right now. Probably going a bit early as they do need to sustain their form a bit longer because of their poor start. What I like about them is they have a clear gameplan, they have experienced and reliable players that you know will perform in big matches (Franklin, Kennedy, Parker, Hanneberry).

GWS (2): Their currently in 2nd and sliding in my estimations. Too many injuries. I also didn't like the way they were playing against Sydney. Too much reliance on individual talent and not enough on system. I'm not the biggest Roos fan but I agreed with him this time. They have the best list but are running out of time to get them fit and up and running. Some players won't come back at their best.

Geelong (3): 3rd in my estimations. You know what you will get from them. I actually like their chances if they get to the Grand Final at the MCG. Dangerfield and Selwood won't let you down. I was ready to write them off immediately when I thought Dangerfield's injury could have been a long term one. They need their fringe players to step up in September to support their superstars.

Should win finals but not the premiership (4)
Adelaide (4): Good side and are capable of scoring extremely strongly. Will be found out by the superior midfield's of my first 3. Sydney in particular I view as being able to shut down their style of play.

Could win a finals game but won't pass prelim
Melbourne (5): I like their list a lot. I see them as a bit of a dark horse in this finals series. They would need Gawn and Hogan to find some form and to get back key players in Jones and Viney to make real headway. I think they won't get past prelim stage because of a lack of finals experience.

Richmond (6): Been good all year. Lack of a second key forward target leaves their forward line a bit lacklustre and leaves poor Riewoldt with too much on his shoulders. They play a defensive type game which I think could see them win a finals game but probably no more than that.

West Coast (7): Decent side and every chance to win a game at home. They are quite pedestrian though through the midfield with no Naitanui and the combination of Mitchell and Priddis being slow as treacle. Any finals side could beat them on their day.

Port Adelaide (8): I don't really rate them. They have fed all year on the bottom sides. They haven't been particularly competitive against the better sides. Their forward line in particular goes a fair bit better against the lower sides. They may win a final at home against the 7th or 8th placed team. That would be about it at best.

May make the finals - would be lucky to win a finals game
Essendon (9): No Guarantee to make the finals but I judge them as slightly more likely than St.Kilda or Bulldogs from here. I doubt we'd beat any interstate team if we did - but would give us a chance against Melbourne or Richmond or that type of team. I think Essendon's way of moving the ball and Daniher would scare a few teams.

St.Kilda (10): Classic hot and cold team as their last 2 performances clearly demonstrate. Similar to Essendon I reckon they may beat a Melbourne team at best. They do have a forward line that could trouble a few teams but I suspect the better midfields will be able to shut them down.

Western Bulldogs (11): Won't make the finals for mine. They still could but Its hard to see it right now. Its hard to find any improved players on their list which is surprising giving it's still a fairly young list on the whole. Their forward line is an absolute disaster. Their midfield needs to absolutely dominate to win games of football. If they did make finals from here they would be a decent threat to win a game or two but they aren't half the team they were last year.

Fremantle (12): Won't make the finals. You only have to look at their percentage to know they don't deserve to either. If Fyfe had come back in his brownlow form then they could have made finals and may have even looked similar to a team like Richmond but unfortunately he hasn't been able to find that level this year.
Nice post. Personally, I'm off the Bulldogs now. Waiting and waiting for them to come good, and it just ain't happening.
 

Pres

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If the Giants can get Coniglio and Hopper both back in the next two weeks it's game on for them again.

They looked a lot better last night - just ran into a Swans team at the absolute pinnacle of their form.
 

aCunningPlan

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This year after 17 rounds, Geelong have had 5 games decided by under a goal, winning 4 (all by under 3 points) and a draw. They are 11 wins, 4 losses and a draw. They have a % of 118.1

Last year after 17 rounds, Hawthorn had 4 games decided by under a goal, winning all 4. They were on 13 wins and 3 losses and a % of 119.5.

Everyone was writing Hawthorn off because they only had the 7th best % of the teams in the top 8 (not that there was a great deal between 1-7).

Geelong are a fake team who, without umpiring assistance, would have lost their close matches against North, Port, Freo and Hawthorn. They shouldn't even be in the 8. They are a worse team than what Hawthorn were last year and will be found out in September.
Generally I would agree with you, this year has a similar feeling to the last few years for us, winning but not impressing...however looking at the competition this year most other sides seem to be in the same boat.

This year it is just a matter of getting to September and seeing what side turns up on the day. If Duncan, Menzel, Tuohy, Henderson, and Blicavs get their hands on the ball we can just about beat any side.

If one or two of those players have a quiet one, sadly, in terms on beating the top sides come finals time, our hopes rest on Hawkins not constantly running under the ball or jumping for a speccie too early. If you could rely on Hawkins to even just kick two or three goals every game Geelong would be right out there as flag favourites. He will play a blinder one week then fade away for the next month. But again, who knows what may happen at the pointy end.
 

MC Extra Dollop

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In fairness the new Louie Vuitton Range of Handbags were on display that night so there were extenuating circumstances.
The Swans haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in finals over the past four years either. Absolutely blown off the park in the PF in 2013 and the GF in 2014, straight sets in 2015 and beaten by as big an underdog as you're likely to find in another Grand Final in 2016. It's a bit difficult to understand the arrogance, to be honest.
 

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hk89

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The Swans haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in finals over the past four years either. Absolutely blown off the park in the PF in 2013 and the GF in 2014, straight sets in 2015 and beaten by as big an underdog as you're likely to find in another Grand Final in 2016. It's a bit difficult to understand the arrogance, to be honest.
Indeed, pretty much their only players that have performed well in finals post 2012 are ex-Hawthorn players. They had another guy that went ok last year, but he's now a current Hawthorn player.
 

SBD Gonzalez

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Kidding, right?
The Swans haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in finals over the past four years either. Absolutely blown off the park in the PF in 2013 and the GF in 2014, straight sets in 2015 and beaten by as big an underdog as you're likely to find in another Grand Final in 2016. It's a bit difficult to understand the arrogance, to be honest.
Not sure where you're picking up this perception of arrogance from. Most Swans fans are over the moon about our turnaround, but have both feet firmly on the ground, and know full well that after starting 0-6, every week is a must win for us.

And I think few Swans fans would disagree that though we've got an unbelievable track record for making the finals year-in, year-out without doing a full rebuild; with winning finals we're not so impressive.

A few other thoughts - 2103 finals we were decimated by injury. Of course fans always have hope, but in retrospect we were never going to make it with our outs.

2014 GF - who knows? Hawthorn were a truly great team, but not that great. And we were a great team all year. One of life's mysteries.

2016 - people are starting to look at the final margin and forget that the 2016 GF was neck and neck till 5 min from the end. We didn't have an answer in the end, particularly with Buddy hobbled, but we gave it everything and there was no shame in that loss.

But arrogance? Nah. Only Hawks fans are ever arrogant, admittedly with some justification.
 

beert

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I'm starting to hear talk that Swans either have or are going to have "fairytale" status. I think umpiring on the weekend backs up the theory, in which case they would be unbackable favourites.

Brilliantly engineered by the Swans (who are nothing if not well run), by deliberately losing their first 6 games before starting their run, although I think the "last minute win" card we used against Richmond and Essendon should have been played much later in the season,
 

Glenno23

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Yeah, last showdown was a close one, though. I think you've got their measure but haven't been consistent enough to make an upset seem unlikely.
Close? We won by 22 points. We had the game well in control and Port made a dash in the 3rd, but they never really got too close

Will be a belter in a few weeks though!
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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If the Crows can get enough supply into their forward line they'll kick a winning score more often than not. Still think their best is the best this year
The Crows best is definitely up there. The problem is that in the games they have lost they haven't been able to get the ball into the forward line.

Beat the Crows at the contest and slow them down on turnovers and you beat them. Granted many teams have tried that and failed, but their game plan is pretty easy to figure out.
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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This year after 17 rounds, Geelong have had 5 games decided by under a goal, winning 4 (all by under 3 points) and a draw. They are 11 wins, 4 losses and a draw. They have a % of 118.1

Last year after 17 rounds, Hawthorn had 4 games decided by under a goal, winning all 4. They were on 13 wins and 3 losses and a % of 119.5.

Everyone was writing Hawthorn off because they only had the 7th best % of the teams in the top 8 (not that there was a great deal between 1-7).

Geelong are a fake team who, without umpiring assistance, would have lost their close matches against North, Port, Freo and Hawthorn. They shouldn't even be in the 8. They are a worse team than what Hawthorn were last year and will be found out in September.
The difference this year is that, due to the even competition, Geelong have the 3rd best percentage.

Plus the teams with the highest percentages have question marks. Crows have shit the bed in finals the last 2 years and Port have struggled against top 8 team this year.

On top of that Geelong have lost to teams outside the 8, which won't be an issue come finals time.
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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People are reading into the swans resurgance too much and its because of the dogs...to win the flag, you need to finish top 4...end of story... last year was a perfectt storm for the dogs...the bye, ridiculous umps being swept away in the fairy tale....last year was an outlier. Highly unlikely the swans pinch a top 4 spot
You realise there is a bye before the finals again this year right.
 

demondavey

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I think to suggest Sydney can't win it is a pretty bold statement. The top 4 aren't exactly setting the world alight week to week. Yes they are there for a reason, but they are definitely beatable come finals and i'd back Sydney in a GF to get over each of the top 4 candidates currently. I don't read too much into the premier coming from outside the top 4, so i think it'd take a pretty exceptional side to win it from 5-8.

Sydney are a pretty good outfit, and they've got some seriously good talent there and are starting to play some very enthralling football. I certainly wouldn't want to run into them come finals, but who knows, they might run out of steam come the pointy end of the year. Whilst they are playing like they are, i like them as my tip for 2017.
 

demondavey

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Not sure where you're picking up this perception of arrogance from. Most Swans fans are over the moon about our turnaround, but have both feet firmly on the ground, and know full well that after starting 0-6, every week is a must win for us.

And I think few Swans fans would disagree that though we've got an unbelievable track record for making the finals year-in, year-out without doing a full rebuild; with winning finals we're not so impressive.

A few other thoughts - 2103 finals we were decimated by injury. Of course fans always have hope, but in retrospect we were never going to make it with our outs.

2014 GF - who knows? Hawthorn were a truly great team, but not that great. And we were a great team all year. One of life's mysteries.

2016 - people are starting to look at the final margin and forget that the 2016 GF was neck and neck till 5 min from the end. We didn't have an answer in the end, particularly with Buddy hobbled, but we gave it everything and there was no shame in that loss.

But arrogance? Nah. Only Hawks fans are ever arrogant, admittedly with some justification.
In 2014 you were bullied by Hawthorn. That was when they were pretty 'unsociable' and i think the intention was to knock you about as much as possible physically with very little regard for the consequences. I think it was partly because you were such a young side as well.

Last year was a pretty good game, but i think injuries to certain players ended up costing you as the Bulldogs had the run to see through the game. I still question why McVeigh and Mills were selected as they clearly weren't right. Franklin getting injured is totally going to cost you.

I like you this year, and i think if you are knocking on the door of the 4 come finals, you'll be hard to beat. You have serious experience under pressure and in big games, and i also think there will be a little bit of envy from losing 2014 and 2016. Nothing like making it up. It will actually be a good read on how good the top 4 are, because really, the premier should come from there, but the Swans are a powerful unit.
 

99cents

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I think to suggest Sydney can't win it is a pretty bold statement. The top 4 aren't exactly setting the world alight week to week. Yes they are there for a reason, but they are definitely beatable come finals and i'd back Sydney in a GF to get over each of the top 4 candidates currently. I don't read too much into the premier coming from outside the top 4, so i think it'd take a pretty exceptional side to win it from 5-8.

Sydney are a pretty good outfit, and they've got some seriously good talent there and are starting to play some very enthralling football. I certainly wouldn't want to run into them come finals, but who knows, they might run out of steam come the pointy end of the year. Whilst they are playing like they are, i like them as my tip for 2017.
They could still make top 4!
1 win and % away with 6 matches left....
 

AG

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The Swans haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in finals over the past four years either. Absolutely blown off the park in the PF in 2013 and the GF in 2014, straight sets in 2015 and beaten by as big an underdog as you're likely to find in another Grand Final in 2016. It's a bit difficult to understand the arrogance, to be honest.
Scary when you think about it. Throw in 96 and 2006 losses as well. 2005 we won by one point. 2012 Hawthorn kicked themselves out of it and we snuck home.

We very nearly could have been the new Colliwobbles without 05 and 12. Still, can't complain. A flag is a flag.
 
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