Who do you think will or want to win the 2017 flag?

Who will win the flag?


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Jase Cutler

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The only teams in the Top 5 that don't rely on one or two players are GWS and Port.

Crows: Sloane
Geelong: Dangerwood
Sydney: Buddy and Kennedy

Meanwhile Port are struggling to get a single player in the rolling AA team despite being top 4, and GWS have 22 stars on field when fully fit.
On the Swans front, it's Buddy, Kennedy, Rampe (and arguably Parker). The 0-6 result was due to many factors; Rampe out was a big factor. I'd say he is as important as Kennedy.
 

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Janus

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It's between Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Sydney. No one else has the required defensive and offensive power to salute. This is my take on each side:

Adelaide has a trouble with their midfield being exposed in finals. It's fine to roll the ball through in transition during regular season games, but the intensity of finals against contested sides like Geelong, Port and Sydney is going to expose this weakness. They basically try to avoid the ball getting clogged up in the middle of the ground at all costs. Can they fix this? If they can, the flag is theirs, because no other side has the firepower up forward that they do.

Port Adelaide's main issue is goal conversion and their forward line system. Best defence, top three in clearances, best inside 50 numbers, best contested possession differential...it all means **** all if you can't convert chances. Every single side that has beaten Port has done so through run off of half back...which is a direct cause of poor entries, and therefore turnovers, inside 50. That's why they haven't beaten anyone up the top of the ladder - top teams will always punish you if you don't punish them when you have the chance to do so. This is a maturity issue, so it can be fixed...but whether it will remains to be seen.

GWS has a problem with relying too much on skill and not on system. They are extremely poor defensively and most of their players don't work hard to get back into defence. The fact that they are still top four speaks more of the natural talent in the side than anything else. Unfortunately, you can't switch defensive action on and off, so they are going to have to rely on their immense talent to win the flag. Possible? You better ******* believe it is. Which is why only the teams with a good system have a chance against them.

Geelong has a bit of an issue with their perceived reliance on Selwood and Dangerfield. If Dangerfield's foot turns into a navicular injury (touch would it doesn't), then it's over. It's not so much that the rest of the team relies on them to generate score, but rather, the attention that they are paid by opposition players/coaches allows their other players a bit more space and time. But the rest of their side is well balanced. Tuohy was a great bit of recruiting, as was getting Scott Selwood.

Sydney really doesn't have a weakness...their only issue is maybe on the outside against pace, which is why a team like the Bulldogs could expose them last year. It's why they want to play GWS at the SCG rather than Spotless - the SCG is around 15m shorter than Spotless, so they don't have to run as hard to defend. But their rise is also due to the fact that every other team is now slowing down after the breakneck pace of the opening rounds, allowing them to play their natural game.
 

Crow till I die

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It's between Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Sydney. No one else has the required defensive and offensive power to salute. This is my take on each side:

Adelaide has a trouble with their midfield being exposed in finals. It's fine to roll the ball through in transition during regular season games, but the intensity of finals against contested sides like Geelong, Port and Sydney is going to expose this weakness. They basically try to avoid the ball getting clogged up in the middle of the ground at all costs. Can they fix this? If they can, the flag is theirs, because no other side has the firepower up forward that they do.

Port Adelaide's main issue is goal conversion and their forward line system. Best defence, top three in clearances, best inside 50 numbers, best contested possession differential...it all means **** all if you can't convert chances. Every single side that has beaten Port has done so through run off of half back...which is a direct cause of poor entries, and therefore turnovers, inside 50. That's why they haven't beaten anyone up the top of the ladder - top teams will always punish you if you don't punish them when you have the chance to do so. This is a maturity issue, so it can be fixed...but whether it will remains to be seen.

GWS has a problem with relying too much on skill and not on system. They are extremely poor defensively and most of their players don't work hard to get back into defence. The fact that they are still top four speaks more of the natural talent in the side than anything else. Unfortunately, you can't switch defensive action on and off, so they are going to have to rely on their immense talent to win the flag. Possible? You better ******* believe it is. Which is why only the teams with a good system have a chance against them.

Geelong has a bit of an issue with their perceived reliance on Selwood and Dangerfield. If Dangerfield's foot turns into a navicular injury (touch would it doesn't), then it's over. It's not so much that the rest of the team relies on them to generate score, but rather, the attention that they are paid by opposition players/coaches allows their other players a bit more space and time. But the rest of their side is well balanced. Tuohy was a great bit of recruiting, as was getting Scott Selwood.

Sydney really doesn't have a weakness...their only issue is maybe on the outside against pace, which is why a team like the Bulldogs could expose them last year. It's why they want to play GWS at the SCG rather than Spotless - the SCG is around 15m shorter than Spotless, so they don't have to run as hard to defend. But their rise is also due to the fact that every other team is now slowing down after the breakneck pace of the opening rounds, allowing them to play their natural game.
Re port, I would add that their defense has been a product of their midfield providing a very effective shield as when as you say teams move the ball quickly and bypass port's midfield, they can get scored against by the good teams. They have kept the bottom ranked teams to very low scores which reflects this
 

drazah

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wouldn't that have a lot to do with Dangerwood; Sloane + Buddy/Kennedy being so much better than the rest of the comp; let alone their own teammates?
That would influence it, but can't be the entire reason, there needs to be a lack of talent in the lower end of the 22 as well.

Put back mummy's thesaurus when you're finished.
Leptokurtic is the correct word to describe a distribution with clustering around the mean and few data points at the extremes, not my fault your schooling started and ended at Blacktown Primary.
 
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The only teams in the Top 5 that don't rely on one or two players are GWS and Port.

Crows: Sloane
Geelong: Dangerwood
Sydney: Buddy and Kennedy

Meanwhile Port are struggling to get a single player in the rolling AA team despite being top 4, and GWS have 22 stars on field when fully fit.
We are not reliant on Sloane. He's been down on form since round 6 and we still have been beating top 8 teams and sit on top of the ladder . You mustn't watch any of our games if you believe this . Port have failed against top 8 teams thus far . You are where you are because of a very soft draw.
 

kaiserchief13

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It's between Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Sydney. No one else has the required defensive and offensive power to salute. This is my take on each side:

Adelaide has a trouble with their midfield being exposed in finals. It's fine to roll the ball through in transition during regular season games, but the intensity of finals against contested sides like Geelong, Port and Sydney is going to expose this weakness. They basically try to avoid the ball getting clogged up in the middle of the ground at all costs. Can they fix this? If they can, the flag is theirs, because no other side has the firepower up forward that they do.

Port Adelaide's main issue is goal conversion and their forward line system. Best defence, top three in clearances, best inside 50 numbers, best contested possession differential...it all means **** all if you can't convert chances. Every single side that has beaten Port has done so through run off of half back...which is a direct cause of poor entries, and therefore turnovers, inside 50. That's why they haven't beaten anyone up the top of the ladder - top teams will always punish you if you don't punish them when you have the chance to do so. This is a maturity issue, so it can be fixed...but whether it will remains to be seen.

GWS has a problem with relying too much on skill and not on system. They are extremely poor defensively and most of their players don't work hard to get back into defence. The fact that they are still top four speaks more of the natural talent in the side than anything else. Unfortunately, you can't switch defensive action on and off, so they are going to have to rely on their immense talent to win the flag. Possible? You better ******* believe it is. Which is why only the teams with a good system have a chance against them.

Geelong has a bit of an issue with their perceived reliance on Selwood and Dangerfield. If Dangerfield's foot turns into a navicular injury (touch would it doesn't), then it's over. It's not so much that the rest of the team relies on them to generate score, but rather, the attention that they are paid by opposition players/coaches allows their other players a bit more space and time. But the rest of their side is well balanced. Tuohy was a great bit of recruiting, as was getting Scott Selwood.

Sydney really doesn't have a weakness...their only issue is maybe on the outside against pace, which is why a team like the Bulldogs could expose them last year. It's why they want to play GWS at the SCG rather than Spotless - the SCG is around 15m shorter than Spotless, so they don't have to run as hard to defend. But their rise is also due to the fact that every other team is now slowing down after the breakneck pace of the opening rounds, allowing them to play their natural game.
Lol overrate Port much? How many top 8 teams they beaten? Their weakness when other teams play well they can't match them - they just simply aren't good enough all over the field.
 

drazah

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We are not reliant on Sloane. He's been down on form since round 6 and we still have been beating top 8 teams and sit on top of the ladder . You mustn't watch any of our games if you believe this . Port have failed against top 8 teams thus far . You are where you are because of a very soft draw.
I've watched every Crows game so far.
So let's go back and examine these post round 6 games and see how many times you beat a top 8 side while Sloane was tagged.

You beat Melbourne who were without 80% of their midfield quality (no Viney, Tyson, or Jones), so you were fine without needing Sloane because there wasn't an opposition midfield to compete against.

The Bulldogs (not a top 8 team mind you) didn't tag Sloane and he absolutely dominated them. A lot was made of this, as you may remember.

You barely limped over the line against Carlton, who are 16th, not top 8.

You lost against Hawthorn, who are 13th, not top 8, and Sloane did SFA.

Sloane did nothing against St Kilda and you won, but oh dear St Kilda are 9th, and not a Top 8 side.

Oh Geelong! Geelong are a top 8 team. Oh never mind they smashed you. Consensus amongst even your own supporters was that 4 goals was not a reflection of the match, that was like a 10 goal smashing. And Rory was well down, did SFA again, tagged by Scott Selwood.

Smashed Freo, but they're 12th, and Rory was BOG. Hmm.

Smashed Brisbane. Are they Top 8?

Played Melbourne, a top 8 team played after round 6, Sloane was tagged... and they smashed you.

And finally, round 7, you played North Melbourne who are in 17th place... And they smashed you.

So when you say "we have been beating top 8 teams" despite Sloane being tagged, you mean just once, and it was this weekend against a Melbourne outfit without any of their good midfielders. And you've struggled against bottom of the table teams.

And the cherry on top, your crown of ignorance:

You are where you are because of a very soft draw.
Adelaide have the softest draw in the comp!
upload_2017-7-19_13-40-13.png
 

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Glenno23

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You barely limped over the line against Carlton, who are 16th, not top 8.

You lost against Hawthorn, who are 13th, not top 8, and Sloane did SFA.
Well Carlton beat GWS, does that put them out of the running?

Sydney lost to Hawks at home too and lost their first 6 games (Carlton was one of them). So i suppose they can't win it either

Geelong lost to Collingwood and GC. Oops, they won't win

Adelaide have lost to some teams in the bottom 8. Out of the running

Port can't beat anyone in the top 8, so they're no shot

Richmond have lost to WB and Freo. So they can't do it either

Who the **** will win?

Psst. Every team has had some stinkers. Some teams have more to overcome than others to be a shot, but one of the above teams will win it. So your stats for the Crows can apply to anyone in the top 8
 

drazah

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Well Carlton beat GWS, does that put them out of the running?

Sydney lost to Hawks at home too and lost their first 6 games (Carlton was one of them). So i suppose they can't win it either

Geelong lost to Collingwood and GC. Oops, they won't win

Adelaide have lost to some teams in the bottom 8. Out of the running

Port can't beat anyone in the top 8, so they're no shot

Richmond have lost to WB and Freo. So they can't do it either

Who the **** will win?

Psst. Every team has had some stinkers. Some teams have more to overcome than others to be a shot, but one of the above teams will win it. So your stats for the Crows can apply to anyone in the top 8
I'm definitely not saying Adelaide are shit, I was showing that the other nuffie had NFI what he was on about.
 

drazah

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On the Swans front, it's Buddy, Kennedy, Rampe (and arguably Parker). The 0-6 result was due to many factors; Rampe out was a big factor. I'd say he is as important as Kennedy.
So I decided to graph this, and you're right, Sydney aren't dependent on 1 or 2 players.

However, Geelong and Adelaide most decidedly are.

upload_2017-7-19_14-29-53.png


As you can see, Geelong and Adelaide are both strong in their #1-3 players, but below standard especially in the #5-10 range. Port and Sydney are comparatively strong in the #5-10 range, and GWS are strongest between their #4-12 players. Will make a better post in the main board in a minute.
 
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To be honest using a flawed points system like supercoach to draw conclusions about the season is probably not the best way. It's not that I disagree that Adelaide or Geelong aren't reliant on certain players but I think the same is said for pretty much all sides. Take their top 3-4 out and they fall a long way.
 

JayJ20

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Step aside. We're coming for you all (if we can beat North :$)

ESSENDON’S MID-ZONE DIFFERENTIALS

ROUNDS 1-11

Contested Possession Differential: -11 (17th)

Clearance Differential: -6 (18th)

Inside 50 Differential: -12 (17th)

Pts For: 92 (7th)

Pts Against: 96 (14th)

ROUNDS 12-17

Contested Possession Differential: +6 (5th)

Clearance Differential: +3 (5th)

Inside 50 Differential: +10 (2nd)

Pts For: 107 (1st)

Pts Against: 75 (3rd)
 
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So I decided to graph this, and you're right, Sydney aren't dependent on 1 or 2 players.

However, Geelong and Adelaide most decidedly are.

View attachment 393953

As you can see, Geelong and Adelaide are both strong in their #1-3 players, but below standard especially in the #5-10 range. Port and Sydney are comparatively strong in the #5-10 range, and GWS are strongest between their #4-12 players. Will make a better post in the main board in a minute.
I don't reckon fantasy points is a good measure. I don't think we are a team reliant on one or two. If anything we lack the out and out stars of teams like the cats. I think we are solid across most of the team which is a strength .
 

drazah

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I don't reckon fantasy points is a good measure. I don't think we are a team reliant on one or two. If anything we lack the out and out stars of teams like the cats. I think we are solid across most of the team which is a strength .
Not interested in replying to my comment to you though? Is that because it made you look both rude and profoundly ignorant?
 

Go the Guts

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It's between Adelaide, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Sydney. No one else has the required defensive and offensive power to salute. This is my take on each side:

Adelaide has a trouble with their midfield being exposed in finals. It's fine to roll the ball through in transition during regular season games, but the intensity of finals against contested sides like Geelong, Port and Sydney is going to expose this weakness. They basically try to avoid the ball getting clogged up in the middle of the ground at all costs. Can they fix this? If they can, the flag is theirs, because no other side has the firepower up forward that they do.

Port Adelaide's main issue is goal conversion and their forward line system. Best defence, top three in clearances, best inside 50 numbers, best contested possession differential...it all means **** all if you can't convert chances. Every single side that has beaten Port has done so through run off of half back...which is a direct cause of poor entries, and therefore turnovers, inside 50. That's why they haven't beaten anyone up the top of the ladder - top teams will always punish you if you don't punish them when you have the chance to do so. This is a maturity issue, so it can be fixed...but whether it will remains to be seen.

GWS has a problem with relying too much on skill and not on system. They are extremely poor defensively and most of their players don't work hard to get back into defence. The fact that they are still top four speaks more of the natural talent in the side than anything else. Unfortunately, you can't switch defensive action on and off, so they are going to have to rely on their immense talent to win the flag. Possible? You better ******* believe it is. Which is why only the teams with a good system have a chance against them.

Geelong has a bit of an issue with their perceived reliance on Selwood and Dangerfield. If Dangerfield's foot turns into a navicular injury (touch would it doesn't), then it's over. It's not so much that the rest of the team relies on them to generate score, but rather, the attention that they are paid by opposition players/coaches allows their other players a bit more space and time. But the rest of their side is well balanced. Tuohy was a great bit of recruiting, as was getting Scott Selwood.

Sydney really doesn't have a weakness...their only issue is maybe on the outside against pace, which is why a team like the Bulldogs could expose them last year. It's why they want to play GWS at the SCG rather than Spotless - the SCG is around 15m shorter than Spotless, so they don't have to run as hard to defend. But their rise is also due to the fact that every other team is now slowing down after the breakneck pace of the opening rounds, allowing them to play their natural game.
Some good analysis. Adelaide are clearly the no. 1 contested ball side in the AFL though. There's more reasons we've been on top for most of this season than our forward line.
 

Janus

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Some good analysis. Adelaide are clearly the no. 1 contested ball side in the AFL though. There's more reasons we've been on top for most of this season than our forward line.
Adelaide used to be, but they've fallen away quite a bit. In terms of contested ball differential, it's:

Contested Possession Differential (top eight teams in bold):

1. Port Adelaide (+9.6)
2. Geelong (+9.0)
3. Adelaide (+6.2)
4. GWS (+5.0)
5. Sydney (+4.6)

6. Collingwood (+4.2)
7. Melbourne (+2.4)
8. Western Bulldogs (+1.4)

9. Carlton (+1.2)
10. St Kilda (+0.8)
11. Gold Coast (-1.1)
12. Essendon (-1.3)
13. Richmond (-2.7)
14. West Coast (-6.1)

15. North Melbourne (-6.3)
16. Fremantle (-7.9)
17. Hawthorn (-10.2)
18. Brisbane (-10.6)
 
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