Who has been the best key forward since Carey?

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #1
Self-explanatory.

Carey's last outstanding season came in 2000. The year after saw him struggle with injury. Then he sat out a year, before two years at the Crows where he wasn't the same player.

Since Carey's pomp, who has been the best key forward?

Matthew Lloyd

DOB: April 17, 1978
Debut: R8, 1995
Games/Goals: 270 games, 926 goals ave 3.4 gpg.
All-Australian: 1998 (FP), 1999 (FF), 2000 (FF), 2001 (FF), 2003 (FF)
Coleman medallist: 2000, 2001, 2003
Statistical highlights: Kicked 109 goals from 25 games in 2000 and 105 goals from 22 games in 2001. Has kicked 60+ goals in nine seasons, and 59 in 2005. Has averaged 4+ gpg in four seasons: 2000-01 and 2003-04, when he booted a total of 383 goals from 92 games ave 4.2 gpg.

Warren Tredrea

DOB: December 24, 1978
Debut: R2, 1997
Games/Goals: 248 games, 539 goals ave 2.4 gpg
All-Australian: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 (CHF each year)
Statistical highlights: Kicked 204 goals from 71 games in 2003-05 ave 2.8 gpg, including 81 in 2004 from 25 games. Kicked 65 in 2005, but also kicked 50-odd three other times. Scooped the media awards in 2004 and was Brownlow favourite, but lost to Judd. Pipped for AFLPA MVP by Nick Riewoldt.

Jon Brown

DOB: October 29, 1981
Debut: R5, 2000
Games/Goals: 184 games, 423 goals ave 2.3 gpg
All-Australian: 2007 (CHF) and 2009 (FP)
Coleman Medallist: 2007
Statistical highlights: 267 goals in 77 games since the start of 2006 ave 3.5 gpg. That includes hauls of 77, 70 and 85 from 2007 onwards. Had not broken 40 goals in his seven previous seasons, although he was on track to do so in 2006 before getting injured.

Matthew Pavlich

DOB: December 31, 1981
Debut: R5, 2000
Games/Goals: 213 games, 407 goals ave 1.9 gpg
All-Australian: 2002 (FB), 2003 (HFF), 2005 (CHF), 2006 (INT), 2007 (FF), 2008 (INT)
Statistical highlights: Booted 271 goals from 88 games in 2005-08 ave 3.1 gpg. That included hauls of 61, 71, 72 and 67.

Barry Hall

DOB: February 8, 1977
Debut: R9, 1996
Games/Goals: 250 games, 611 goals ave 2.4 gpg
All-Australian: 2004 (FP), 2005 (FF), 2006 (CHF)
Statistical highlights: Kicked 351 goals from 116 games in 2002-2006 ave 3 gpg. That included hauls of 74, 80 and 78 in 2004-06, when he averaged 3.1 gpg.

Brendan Fevola

DOB: January 20, 1981
Debut: R17, 1999
Games/Goals: 187 games, 575 goals ave 3.1 gpg
All-Australian: 2006 (FF), 2008 (FP) and 2009 (FF)
Coleman Medalist: 2006 and 2009
Statistical highlights: In his AA years, Fev booted 272 goals in 86 games ave 4.1 gpg. Also booted 50+ goals in 2003, 2004 and 2007. From the time Fev emerged in 2003, he’s booted 509 goals in 146 games ave 3.5 gpg.

Lance Franklin

DOB: January 30, 1987
Debut: R1, 2005
Games/Goals: 102 games, 305 goals ave 2.99 gpg.
All-Australian:
Statistical highlights: Since truly emerging in 2007, Buddy has kicked 253 goals from 69 games, ave 3.7 gpg. In 2008, he was freakish, booting 113 goals from 23 games ave 4.9 gpg. You have to go back to Plugger in 1996 to find a season where a player finished with a better average.

Nick Riewoldt

DOB: October 17, 1982
Debut: R15, 2001
Games/Goals: 182 games, 398 goals ave 2.2 gpg
All-Australian: 2004 (HFF), 2006 (FP), 2008 (CHF), CHF (2009)
Statistical highlights: Has kicked 60+ goals in his four AA years, but broke 70 for the first time in 2009 and also averaged 3+ gpg over the season for the first time. The only one of this group to have won an AFLPA MVP. On the list of most marks in a season, Riewoldt has three of the top four: 2004, 2008 and 2009.

Matthew Richardson

DOB: March 19, 1975
Debut: R7, 1993
Games/Goals: 282 games, 800 goals ave 2.8 gpg
All-Australian: 1996 (INT), 1999 (FP), 2008 (INT)
Statistical highlights: Kicked 50+ goals in eight different seasons, including 91 goals from 22 games in 1996. That was the only season Richo avereaged 4+ gpg. But he averaged 3+ gpg in 1998, 1999, 2004 and just under in 2005. In 2008, Richo averaged 11+ marks per game, which appears to be a record.
 

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Mordecai

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#2
Good question and well written post.

I have Lloyd, Brown, Tredrea and Riewoldt up there. Brown I believe to best and most complete footballer of the bunch. Lloyd a very, very close second - people forget how good he (and tredrea) was. Riewoldt gets his place because of that rare ability to jump and remain in control in the air.

Edit: For the good post below - I didn't really consider the stats or teams they played for or how many good seasons they had. The question I asked myself was this - if these players could play for 100000 years who would be the best forward since carey - I think Jonothan Brown is the forward of the bunch above. Aside from injury I can't think of a more dominant forward since Carey.
 

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #3
Good question and well written post.

I have Lloyd, Brown, Tredrea and Riewoldt up there. Brown I believe to best and most complete footballer of the bunch. Lloyd a very, very close second - people forget how good he (and tredrea) was. Riewoldt gets his place because of that rare ability to jump and remain in control in the air.
I went with Lloyd based on consistency. He kicked 60+ in nine different seasons.

I know he played closer to goal than all the others bar Fev, so it's not just about who's kicked the most goals, but I don't reckon any of the other guys have produced as many good seasons as Lloyd.

What people forget about Brown is that he's actually only had three really quality seasons. People get carried away with the fact that he was holding down CHF in that great Lions side from such a young age. He wasn't actually one of the star KPPs until their run was over.

The poll is about who's been the best over the journey. But if there was a secondary critera pertaining to whose best is the best, Franklin would get my vote. I reckon the standard he achieved across 2008 exceeds the standard achieved by any of the others over the course of a single season.
 

Damon_3388

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#4
I voted for Nick Riewoldt, but I put Warren Tredrea a very close second (and can see him being underrated as always in this thread), and Jonathan Brown a close third. Lloyd wasn't enough of a marking threat around the ground or all-rounder to get the nod over those three for mine, although his goal kicking numbers can't be ignored. Fevola likewise, except he has been much more inconsistent and doesn't have the volume of goals that Lloyd does. Richardson, Hall and Pavlich are no doubt are/were great players, but they don't really have that total 'dominant' aura that Carey had, not as much as the others mentioned did/do anyway. Richo had the potential to be Carey-like circa 1996 (arguably the best post-knee reco season anyone has ever had), but for some reason (whether it be the teams he has played in or not, I don't know) he hasn't quite got there over the course of his career. Franklin simply hasn't done it for long enough.
 

AlibiMonday

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#6
When Carey played, I feared how on earth we could contain him. This most intimidating match winner on this list is Brown for mine. Mind you, we never had to play against Hall at his peak.
 

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#10
Fev.

He's 28, and still getting close to 100 goals a year. Can also do the freakish things.

Almost voted Franklin, but hasn't been around long enough yet to judge. Raw talent, then yes, Franklin.

Statistics say Lloyd, but playing in a good side during his prime, and umpire assistance helped him achieve those numbers. I think probably a quarter of his goals came from umps being sucked in by diving.

If the umps back then took the view of diving they do now, you could probably cut 200 goals from his total.
 

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #11
Obviously one Coleman medalist, David Neitz couldn't play. How quickly people forget.
David Neitz is not a viable answer to the question posed in this thread.

I included Other for muppets like you who just need to talk up their own players at every turn. If you reckon Neitz was the best key forward since Carey, you shouldn't expect anyone to listen to you.
 

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SirJimi05

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#13
Fev.

He's 28, and still getting close to 100 goals a year. Can also do the freakish things.

Almost voted Franklin, but hasn't been around long enough yet to judge. Raw talent, then yes, Franklin.

Statistics say Lloyd, but playing in a good side during his prime, and umpire assistance helped him achieve those numbers. I think probably a quarter of his goals came from umps being sucked in by diving.

If the umps back then took the view of diving they do now, you could probably cut 200 goals from his total.
He averaged 0.9 frees for per game you tool. He averaged less frees per game than the guy you nominated. :eek:

It is actually statistically impossible for him to have scored a quarter of his goal from free kicks even if every single free kick he ever got in his career resulted in a shot at goal and he converted at 100% for his entire career.

He averaged a similair or less amount of frees for then just about everyone on that list with the exception of Hall.

Now do you want to think before you post next time? :eek::rolleyes:
 

Claude Balls

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#15
Tredrea and Lloyd are comfortably ahead of the rest (with the exception of perhaps Riewoldt).

Those people arguing for Fevola and Brown are not doing so on the basis of 'runs on the board', but rather how they rank these forwards at their absolute best, irrespective of how often they put it together.
 

Ron

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#16
Lloyd has been the best, can't argue against 900 goals, fantastic effort.

I think people forget just how good Tredrea was about 4-5 years ago, probably the nest player in the comp, he was excellent just about every week.

These two have been the best, there is still time for Riewoldt to catch up, as he still has 2-3 high quality years in him, but right now Lloyd and Tredrea have been the two standouts.
 
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#21
Buddy would have to be on a similar level to carey in regards to "awe". Though since he is starting out in his career no point in saying it's him yet. I reckon Pavlich, he played down back, in the middle, and still averages close to 2 goals a game. If he was in a decent team and played forward always there would be no contest. Pavlich and Carey are very similar players really.

Brown is too inconsistent from what people perceive him as though he is a very good player. Lloyd is too one dimensional. A great forward has to do more than just kick goals, Carey showed this.
 
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#22
Also if you check the stats, Pavlich kicked 66% of his goals in 4 seasons averaging 3.1GPG higher than everyone elses average (besides lloyd). This is when he mainly played forward with a **** midfield.

Tredrea at his peak was a very good player but I don't think he is in the same league as Carey consistency wise.
 

MC Bad Genius

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#23
This is really hard, because they are all champions. The easiest way to come to a decision is to rule players out:

- Richardson has been great, but never really dominated from inside the 50m.
- Pavlich is fantastic, but won't get any kudos because of the team he plays in.
- Franklin has to bounce back from his underperformed 2009 to prove himself.
- Brown is intimidating and fearless, but not consistent as the others.
- Hall had a peak couple of years, but wasn't dominant for long enough.
- Fevola is in his peak right now and if he doesn't sort himself out, won't get the opportunity to hold this sort of company.

This leaves Riewoldt, Tredrea and Lloyd. At this point in time, I would go with Lloyd, but if we judge them all by the end of their careers, I think my vote will be going to Riewoldt. Tredrea was just unstoppable for a long period of time, but he is number # 3 after Lloyd and Riewoldt.
 
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