Who has the best forward line heading into 2019?

Who will have the best forward line in 2019?


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Obeanie1

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There is only one team with 7 potential 30 plus goalkickers on their list.

Add Elliott to the six mentioned, and it's clear Collingwood have the most avenues to goal, and therefore the best forward line.
Ahhhh. Potentially.

Collongwood potentially have the best forward line!

Potentially they could also miss the top 8.

Pies need to supplement their quality medium small forwards who are very, very good with some A grade talls. Currently they have none.

ATM its Cox and that other tall starting with M. The one McGovern used as a step ladder in that rebound play that won the GF.
 

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Coaster2012

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There is also only 1 team that has 6 players that kicked over 20 or more goals last season.

These players are (H&A stats):

Bruest - 54 goals
Gunston - 51 goals
Roughead - 34 goals
Smith - 26 goals
Wingard - 22 goals
Puopolo - 20 goals
Wingard doesn't count, was in a different set up over at Port, so you have 2 players in the exact same position at the same time which is an impossibility. If he had kicked 20 goals last year at the Hawks, as well as all those other figures, you guys would have finished minor premiers.

But I agree, that Pies quote about having 7 players who can kick 30+ just isn't relevant or correct. Almost any top 4-6 side probably has 7 players who are capable of that, but weather their players get anywhere near it, is a different story.
 
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Mitchell54

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Wingard doesn't count, was in a different set up over at Port, so you have 2 players in the exact same position at the same time which is an impossibility. If he had kicked 20 goals last year at the Hawks, as well as all those other figures, you guys would have finished minor premiers.

But I agree, that Pies quote about having 7 players who can kick 30+ just isn't relevant or correct.
I wasn’t say that I was using the best way as there’s no guessing what Wingard will do to Hawthorn but more that going on potential is not that great
 

Fadge

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But I agree, that Pies quote about having 7 players who can kick 30+ just isn't relevant or correct. Almost any top 4-6 side probably has 7 players who are capable of that, but weather their players get anywhere near it, is a different story.
Isn't relevant or correct in what way? My statement was that they 'can' kick 30 plus goals (i.e. are capable of doing so), not that they 'will'.

Goals in 2018:
De Goey 48
WHE 42
Thomas 38
Stephenson 38
Mihocek 29 (from 16 games)
Cox 25 (has plenty of upside, is a monty for 30 plus in 2019).

Elliott did not play a game in 2016 or 2018, and in the other 4 seasons since 2013 he has kicked minimum 30 goals in each season.

That forward line took them to the Grand Final last year, with upside expected from each and every one of them in 2019.
 
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Coaster2012

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Isn't relevant or correct in what way? My statement was that they 'can' kick 30 plus goals (i.e. are capable of doing so), not that they 'will'.

Goals in 2018:
De Goey 48
WHE 42
Thomas 38
Stephenson 38
Mihocek 29 (from 16 games)
Cox 25 (has plenty of upside, is a monty for 30 plus in 2019).

Elliott did not play a game in 2016 or 2018, and in the other 4 seasons since 2013 he has kicked minimum 30 goals in each season.

That forward line took them to the Grand Final last year, with upside expected from each and every one of them in 2019.
Your statement was that they are the only side capable of having 7 players kick 30 plus goals. Which just isn't correct in anyway shape or form (WC and Hawks have it too) And if you think Elliot can just came in and add 30 goals to the tally with out taking goals away from the others, then you are delusional and will likely have a very disappointing 2019.

And on a side note, having lots of avenue to goal isn't the sole metric that a forward line is judged upon.
 

Judd2Sewell

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I think we have some great options in terms of small forwards and flankers to rotate through there, we arguably have the best options in the league (if only Cyril didn't retire):

Wingard
Breust
Gunston
Puopolo
Impey

We also have two goal kicking wingman who can play high HFF in Smith and Scully.

But our KPF stocks are very poor compared to other sides. Unfortunately Roughie has been looking cooked and seemingly can't play as a KPF anymore. He's better served playing as a flanker or up the ground more IMO. We are will likely need to either run with a small forward line, or have a resting ruckman there at all times.
 

juss

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Your statement was that they are the only side capable of having 7 players kick 30 plus goals. Which just isn't correct in anyway shape or form. And if you think Elliot can just came in and add 30 goals to the tally with out taking goals away from the others, then you are delusional and will likely have a very disappointing 2019.
Agreed. Elliot hasn't played in forever. Hes going to take time.
Also, most of the decent sides have a range of players who could be considered capable of 30+
Riewoldt, Lynch, Caddy, Martin, Butler, Castagna, Rioli would be the Tigers if all fit.
I'd imagine you can do a list with a number of sides.
 

Fadge

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Your statement was that they are the only side capable of having 7 players kick 30 plus goals. Which just isn't correct in anyway shape or form. And if you think Elliot can just came in and add 30 goals to the tally with out taking goals away from the others, then you are delusional and will likely have a very disappointing 2019.
Ah, I get you now. Maybe we're not the 'only' side, I should have said 'most likely'.

If Elliott comes in and kicks his 30 goals, it means De Goey and Stephenson spend more time in the midfield, thus reducing their tallies by between 5 and 10 goals each.

Not a bad problem to have...
 

Marcel Proust

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Agreed. Elliot hasn't played in forever. Hes going to take time.
Also, most of the decent sides have a range of players who could be considered capable of 30+
Riewoldt, Lynch, Caddy, Martin, Butler, Castagna, Rioli would be the Tigers if all fit.
I'd imagine you can do a list with a number of sides.
and Higgins
 

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Judd2Sewell

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Your statement was that they are the only side capable of having 7 players kick 30 plus goals. Which just isn't correct in anyway shape or form. And if you think Elliot can just came in and add 30 goals to the tally with out taking goals away from the others, then you are delusional and will likely have a very disappointing 2019.
Elliot has kicked over 30 goals four times in his career though. I get that his inclusion would affect rotation and most likely take away from other players such as Thomas and WHE. But he's proven that he can do it, four times (two other seasons he's been injured and his debut season he was obviously finding his feet).

You've also said that Wingard can't be included in any projections because he has played in a different system, but you've included Waterman, Rioli and Ryan on your potential 30+ list. Three players that are just starting out and haven't yet reached the 30 goal a season mark. Maybe they will, but you have to apply your argument to them too.
 

Coaster2012

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Elliot has kicked over 30 goals four times in his career though. I get that his inclusion would affect rotation and most likely take away from other players such as Thomas and WHE. But he's proven that he can do it, four times (two other seasons he's been injured and his debut season he was obviously finding his feet).

You've also said that Wingard can't be included in any projections because he has played in a different system, but you've included Waterman, Rioli and Ryan on your potential 30+ list. Three players that are just starting out and haven't yet reached the 30 goal a season mark. Maybe they will, but you have to apply your argument to them too.
I didn't say Elliot couldn't, but I am saying that he just won't add 30 goals on top of what everyone else has kicked. And I said Winguard doesn't count because you can't include 2 players who played in the same position at the same time, how could that even work? the forward line structure would be different, i.e one player would be pushed up the field more and won't score as many.

As for the three players I quoted, they are already on the WC list and the structures aren't changing and if they didnt kick 30, they are very freaking close to kicking 30 and it was their debut seasons. In other words, a lot doesn't have to change for them to tick over.

Rioli kicked 28 goals (missed a few games and was his debut season, pretty sure he's capable of kicking 2 more goals)

Ryan kicked 20 goals in his debut year and missed half the season. The guy kicked 73 goals in the WAFL the year before. (pretty sure that means hes capable...)

Waterman is the only question mark, but kicked 13 goals. But with Lecras out, will see his game time sky rocket.

We also have Vardy who moves in and out of there, but if he's in there long enough is a different story. The downsides of also having some forwards who can kick 60+ too, is that you don't rotate as much.

I stand by my opinion.
 
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juss

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Ah, I get you now. Maybe we're not the 'only' side, I should have said 'most likely'.

If Elliott comes in and kicks his 30 goals, it means De Goey and Stephenson spend more time in the midfield, thus reducing their tallies by between 5 and 10 goals each.

Not a bad problem to have...
A breadth of goalkickers is good, but there are diminishing returns. If 4 players score 30 and above, that's probably good enough. Especially if one of those 4 is a gun kicking 60+
It doesnt matter where the goals come from really, 210 goals from 3 players is still 210 goals, there aren't any prizes for 210 goals from 7 players.

As a general rule it's good to have a small spread and a few dangerous options, but the less goals a player kicks the less dangerous they are. In 2018 Eagles and Pies only had 4 players kick over 30. In 2017 Tigers won it with 3 over 30. You don't need a massive spread beyond a few.
 
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Fadge

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A breadth of goalkickers is good, but there are diminishing returns. If 4 players score 30 and above, that's probably good enough. Especially if one of those 4 is a gun kicking 60+
It doesnt matter where the goals come from really, 210 goals from 3 players is still 210 goals, there aren't any prizes for 210 goals from 7 players.

As a general rule it's good to have a small spread and a few dangerous options, but the less goals a player kicks the less dangerous they are. In 2018 Eagles and Pies only had 4 players kick over 30. In 2017 Tigers won it with 3 over 30. You don't need a massive spread beyond a few.
Not sure I understand the point you are trying to make?

Are you trying to say there's not a great deal of benefit in having 7 or 8 players on your list capable of kicking 30 or more goals in a season?

I for one am more comfortable going into 2019 knowing the breadth of goalkicking options we have on our list, compared to say 3 years ago when Fasolo led our goalkicking with mid 20's goals and noone else kicked more than 20...
 

telsor

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Isn't relevant or correct in what way? My statement was that they 'can' kick 30 plus goals (i.e. are capable of doing so), not that they 'will'.

Goals in 2018:
De Goey 48
WHE 42
Thomas 38
Stephenson 38
Mihocek 29 (from 16 games)
Cox 25 (has plenty of upside, is a monty for 30 plus in 2019).

Elliott did not play a game in 2016 or 2018, and in the other 4 seasons since 2013 he has kicked minimum 30 goals in each season.

That forward line took them to the Grand Final last year, with upside expected from each and every one of them in 2019.
and yet Melbourne kicked 253 points more than your team...with only 3 kicking over 30.
 

Fadge

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and yet Melbourne kicked 253 points more than your team...with only 3 kicking over 30.
But it all dried up in big games when Hogan was missing in action and goals from 'non goal kickers' were harder to come by.

They kicked some very big scores against some very average teams. That's why I don't rate them as a flag threat in 2019.
 

Dez!

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But it all dried up in big games when Hogan was missing in action and goals from 'non goal kickers' were harder to come by.

They kicked some very big scores against some very average teams. That's why I don't rate them as a flag threat in 2019.
Put your money on Melbourne for the flag now folks.
 

juss

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Not sure I understand the point you are trying to make?

Are you trying to say there's not a great deal of benefit in having 7 or 8 players on your list capable of kicking 30 or more goals in a season?

I for one am more comfortable going into 2019 knowing the breadth of goalkicking options we have on our list, compared to say 3 years ago when Fasolo led our goalkicking with mid 20's goals and noone else kicked more than 20...
No what I'm saying is having players capable, doesn't mean much. And if one of those capable players gets injured, someone else can probably step up. Every decent side has 6-8 players capable of doing it. In reality, only 3-4 will actually do it in any given year, and it's certainly not a requirement for success to have 7 do it in any individual year, nor is it very common at all.

Clubs can and are successful with 3-4 strong goal scorers. That's really all you need to have various options, without just having a bunch of okay players who average a goal a game.

As mentioned WC and Pies both only had 4 with 30+ this year, same as the Tigers this year, while Melbourne only had 3.
In 2017 Tigers won it with 3 scoring over 30, while the Crows had 4.
2016 and the Dogs had only 2 score over 30, while Swans literally had only one with Franklin, and yet still made the Grand Final.
2015 Hawks had 4, Eagles had 2.

What recent history shows us is you won't have seven players score over 30, it's not correlated with recent success, and anywhere from 2-4 is adequate.
The rest of the goals will get chipped in from everyone else, somewhere through the year.

The Pies will likely have Degoey kick 40+ as well as maybe a Cox, Mihochek and WHE kick 30+ It would be rare to have 2 or 3 more players kick more than 30, and the above example would be more than enough as a spread.
 

telsor

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But it all dried up in big games when Hogan was missing in action and goals from 'non goal kickers' were harder to come by.

They kicked some very big scores against some very average teams. That's why I don't rate them as a flag threat in 2019.
Lovely theory, but in practice, the higher scoring teams don't have that many mid range goal kickers.
 

Hannabal

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Melbourne and GWS have very young lists
Our list profile is young, but it's also deceiving.

In my best 22 for 2019 I count only 5 players with less then 50 games and three of them were mature age recruits, namely, vandenBerg (27), Hannan (25), and Fritsch (22) - ages in brackets. Their output in 2018 was far greater than your typical sub 50 game teenager.

That leaves just two other players in my best 22 under 50 games, namely Weideman (21), who's entering his 4th year, and Spargo (19).

So when you look at the profile it may be a youngish team, but it's becoming quite experienced in the 50-100 game bracket.

Players between 50 and 100 games: Gawn, Viney, Kolodjashnij, Salem, Harmes, Lever, Petracca, Oscar McDonald, Oliver, Neal-Bullen, and Brayshaw. That's eleven players (half the team) and many of them are "guns".

It's a young list, but not "very" young and becoming experienced, which is more important.
 

Marcel Proust

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Our list profile is young, but it's also deceiving.

In my best 22 for 2019 I count only 5 players with less then 50 games and three of them were mature age recruits, namely, vandenBerg (27), Hannan (25), and Fritsch (22) - ages in brackets. Their output in 2018 was far greater than your typical sub 50 game teenager.

That leaves just two other players in my best 22 under 50 games, namely Weideman (21), who's entering his 4th year, and Spargo (19).

So when you look at the profile it may be a youngish team, but it's becoming quite experienced in the 50-100 game bracket.

Players between 50 and 100 games: Gawn, Viney, Kolodjashnij, Salem, Harmes, Lever, Petracca, Oscar McDonald, Oliver, Neal-Bullen, and Brayshaw. That's eleven players (half the team) and many of them are "guns".

It's a young list, but not "very" young and becoming experienced, which is more important.
50 games isnt many though
 
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