Who has the best forward line heading into 2019?

[Hannabal]

50 games isnt many though

So rather than settle on a simplistic comment, such as "50 games isn't many", let's delve a bit deeper.

I've always thought players start influencing games regularly once they've played somewhere in the 60-80 games range.

The player with the fewest games over 50 in our best 22 is Brayshaw with 58, who was third in the Brownlow and top 5 in our B&F. The next fewest is Neal-Bullen on 59, who was the 6th ranked pressure forward in the AFL in 2018 and he kicked 27 goals. Then there's Oliver on 60 games, who won the club's B&F in 2017 and was named AA in 2018. The rest are in that sweet spot I mentioned.

That's not to say there's not improvement left in the group. There is, which is exciting for Dees fans.

I reiterate, we're "youngish", however, it's not your typical "very young" team that has a swag of kids.

The only players under 22 in our best 22 are Oliver (21), Weideman (21), and Spargo (19). That's three players in our best 22 under 22. Hawthorn, the oldest list in the competition, have the same number under 22 in their best 22.

Our best 22 isn't as "young" as you think.

 

[Marcel Proust]

So rather than settle on a simplistic comment, such as "50 games isn't many", let's delve a bit deeper.

I've always thought players start influencing games regularly once they've played somewhere in the 60-80 games range.

The player with the fewest games over 50 in our best 22 is Brayshaw with 58, who was third in the Brownlow and top 5 in our B&F. The next fewest is Neal-Bullen on 59, who was the 6th ranked pressure forward in the AFL in 2018 and he kicked 27 goals. Then there's Oliver on 60 games, who won the club's B&F in 2017 and was named AA in 2018. The rest are in that sweet spot I mentioned.

That's not to say there's not improvement left in the group. There is, which is exciting for Dees fans.

I reiterate, we're "youngish", however, it's not your typical "very young" team that has a swag of kids.

The only players under 22 in our best 22 are Oliver (21), Weideman (21), and Spargo (19). That's three players in our best 22 under 22. Hawthorn, the oldest list in the competition, have the same number under 22 in their best 22.

Our best 22 isn't as "young" as you think.

the list is 27 and younger; all bar five players - only 8 have 100+ games

GWS and the dees have very young lists, even with pumping lots of games into the younger guys. Comparisons to other highly rated sides, like Collingwood and Hawthorn shows how young. If either gws/dees win the flag this season itll be quite a big statement

 

[Dez!]

the list is 27 and younger; all bar five players - only 8 have 100+ games

GWS and the dees have very young lists, even with pumping lots of games into the younger guys. Comparisons to other highly rated sides, like Collingwood and Hawthorn shows how young. If either gws/dees win the flag this season itll be quite a big statement

Which means a lot of them are just about entering their prime.

 

[Coaster2012]

Which means a lot of them are just about entering their prime.

I feel like the D's have the most pressure this season out of any other (bar maybe the Saints), there has been linear growth the last few years, and with all the young stars they are now packed with, it seems every dude and his dog is touting them as a force to reckon with in 2019. But as history shows, well, at least the last 3 years, the team that has won the flag was the team NOT expected to win.

I'd be nervous if I were a D's fan.

 

[Dez!]

I feel like the D's have the most pressure this season out of any other (bar maybe the Saints), there has been linear growth the last few years, and with all the young stars they are now packed with, it seems every dude and his dog is touting them as a force to reckon with in 2019. But as history shows, well, at least the last 3 years, the team that has won the flag was the team NOT expected to win.

I'd be nervous if I were a D's fan.

I don't think so with regards to pressure on winning the flag, are we a chance? Absolutely but I think 2020 on-wards is when expectations will be at their highest.

Top 4 should be the expectation given what happened in 2018.

 

[adammania9]

Every single list in the comp is young and in development

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

The Bulldogs easily... oh wait, i thought i was choosing the WORST forward line

 

[schmuttt]

I feel like the D's have the most pressure this season out of any other (bar maybe the Saints), there has been linear growth the last few years, and with all the young stars they are now packed with, it seems every dude and his dog is touting them as a force to reckon with in 2019. But as history shows, well, at least the last 3 years, the team that has won the flag was the team NOT expected to win.

I'd be nervous if I were a D's fan.

No, that'd be Essendon.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Every single list in the comp is young and in development

hawks and collingwood = old

 

[Lolbert]

Our list profile is young, but it's also deceiving.

In my best 22 for 2019 I count only 5 players with less then 50 games and three of them were mature age recruits, namely, vandenBerg (27), Hannan (25), and Fritsch (22) - ages in brackets. Their output in 2018 was far greater than your typical sub 50 game teenager.

That leaves just two other players in my best 22 under 50 games, namely Weideman (21), who's entering his 4th year, and Spargo (19).

So when you look at the profile it may be a youngish team, but it's becoming quite experienced in the 50-100 game bracket.

Players between 50 and 100 games: Gawn, Viney, Kolodjashnij, Salem, Harmes, Lever, Petracca, Oscar McDonald, Oliver, Neal-Bullen, and Brayshaw. That's eleven players (half the team) and many of them are "guns".

It's a young list, but not "very" young and becoming experienced, which is more important.

Didn't realise Gawn hadn't hit 100 yet. Impressive. I still think the key to unlocking the powerhouse Melbourne should be is Viney and keeping him on the ground. My favourite opposition player when fit.

 

[Coaster2012]

No, that'd be Essendon.

Not really, I don't see Essendon being anywhere near winning the flag. They finished 11th last year while D's made a prelim.

 

[owen87]

Not really, I don't see Essendon being anywhere near winning the flag. They finished 11th last year while D's made a prelim.

True, Richmond only came from 13th, and Collingwood 13th in the last 2 years to make (or win) a Grand Final, whilst the losing PF teams didn't make the GF the next year.

 

[Coaster2012]

True, Richmond only came from 13th, and Collingwood 13th in the last 2 years to make (or win) a Grand Final, whilst the losing PF teams didn't make the GF the next year.

So 2 anomalies are suddenly circumstantial evidence? Those two were also rated highly unlikely to achieve what they did too, as are Essendon. D's have a proven track record and have more expectations on them than Essendon.

 

[owen87]

So 2 anomalies are suddenly circumstantial evidence? Those two were also rated highly unlikely to achieve what they did too, as are Essendon. D's have a proven track record and have more expectations on them than Essendon.

And I would agree Melbourne are the more likely, but given the last few seasons, anyone who suggests finishing outside the 8 makes a team nowhere near winning a flag is a misnomer.

Also, as per the recent Herald Sun article, Essendon were one of the strongest performed sides in the last 14 rounds of the season. There's plenty to suggest Essendon is a much better side than the first 8 rounds of 2018.

If you forget about a horrid opening eight rounds in 2018, Essendon was one of the best teams in the competition. From Rounds 9 to 23, the Bombers went on a 10-4 charge, claiming the scalps of Sydney, Geelong, West Coast and Greater Western Sydney along the way. Intriguingly, only Richmond and Collingwood (both 11-3) performed better in the final 14 rounds. During that period, Essendon also averaged 91 points a game and conceded just 76 points against, giving it a percentage of 120.4. If John Worsfold’s men can take such form into 2019, watch out.

 

[schmuttt]

Not really, I don't see Essendon being anywhere near winning the flag. They finished 11th last year while D's made a prelim.

Essendon haven't won a final since 2004 and have what is perceived as a top 6 list at the minimum. Another year of missing finals will see Worsfold under immense pressure, we won't be sacking Goodwin unless there is a massive fallout with him and the playing group.

 

[schmuttt]

Didn't realise Gawn hadn't hit 100 yet. Impressive. I still think the key to unlocking the powerhouse Melbourne should be is Viney and keeping him on the ground. My favourite opposition player when fit.

Good analysis. Viney plays all year and we likely finish top 4, he was by far our best finals player when he came back in. Praying his foot is OK long term although I have my doubts.

 

[Hannabal]

Didn't realise Gawn hadn't hit 100 yet. Impressive. I still think the key to unlocking the powerhouse Melbourne should be is Viney and keeping him on the ground. My favourite opposition player when fit.

In fairness, Gawn is on 99 and Viney 98.

Gawn has had two ACLs since he's been at Melbourne, which hampered his development and then he was behind Mark Jamar.

 

[Dez!]

And I would agree Melbourne are the more likely, but given the last few seasons, anyone who suggests finishing outside the 8 makes a team nowhere near winning a flag is a misnomer.

Also, as per the recent Herald Sun article, Essendon were one of the strongest performed sides in the last 14 rounds of the season. There's plenty to suggest Essendon is a much better side than the first 8 rounds of 2018.

Can the Bombers implement Daniher and maintain what the second half of the year? He's a big piece to incorporate much like Lynch for Richmond.

 

[Goldust]

Top six
1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Sydney

 

[Occidental]

hawks and collingwood = old

Why mention us?
Especially since in the 2018 Prelim, Richmond had an older team on the ground than Collingwood. (and were thrashed)

 

[Marcel Proust]

Why mention us?
Especially since in the 2018 Prelim, Richmond had an older team on the ground than Collingwood. (and were thrashed)

the pies ran out of legs in the grand final and got swamped as the game went on.

Pies fans are pretty confident they got Richmond measure and getting back to late weeks of finals; i do concede they are a good team with a top midfield. However about half the best side is 28 and over which doesn't bode well for the long term. Even the American is surprisingly around that age bracket.

Hawthorn and Collingwood have very experienced (perhaps a better word than old) sides and GWS/Melbourne the other side of the coin, i just thought it were a interesting side note to the discussion above

 

[Obeanie1]

I feel like the D's have the most pressure this season out of any other (bar maybe the Saints), there has been linear growth the last few years, and with all the young stars they are now packed with, it seems every dude and his dog is touting them as a force to reckon with in 2019. But as history shows, well, at least the last 3 years, the team that has won the flag was the team NOT expected to win.

I'd be nervous if I were a D's fan.

Teams most under pressure and expected to perform in order of pressure level;

Dees and Tigers.

Then Pies.

Essendon.

GWS and Crows

Eagles.

 

[adammania9]

hawks and collingwood = old

Your side in the preliminary final was both older and more experienced than ours

 

[Coaster2012]

Teams most under pressure and expected to perform in order of pressure level;

Dees and Tigers.

Then Pies.

Essendon.

GWS and Crows

Eagles.

The greatest thing about your team winning the flag is that I feel so relaxed going into the 2019 season. I can see how premiership hangovers can occur. Like, anything can happen in 2019 and its a shrug, oh well, we won the flag last year.

 

[owen87]

Can the Bombers implement Daniher and maintain what the second half of the year? He's a big piece to incorporate much like Lynch for Richmond.

Yes, I think Daniher played very poorly (and heavily injured) early in the season which skewed people's view on his impact on the side. We played 2 talls (Daniher + Stewart, McKernan + Brown) and will likely run McKernan + Daniher as our preferred option for R1 if everyone is fully fit.

A fit Daniher easily replaces a Brown in the forwardline, he's at his best (in my opinion) working as a CHF from 25m - 75m from goal which allows McKernan to play as a leading FF, and draws a loose defender away from either McKernan or Stringer.

A fit Daniher significantly improves our team, using pretty much the same structure as we ran in the second half of the season, an unfit Daniher is a liability. He needs to be able to run and lead, he can't play as a wrestling FF.