Who is at centre bounces and how often? (Essendon game posted)

Greenac

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Apr 12, 2020
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The following is a breakdown of the 21 centre bounces vs St Kilda.

Main focus question:

- who is at our centre bounces and how often?

Deeper dive question:

- what happens when certain players or combinations are at centre bounce?

I am not a statistician nor claim to be. This is very raw data and other stats would no doubt tell more of the story, but this is outside of the scope of this work. I have been descriptively short by design.

Anyway, without further ado make of the data what you will:


Summary:

Number of times at centre bounces
:

ROB - 21
Keays - 18
Brouch - 14
Jones - 13
Mrouch - 12
Seedsman - 2


Bounce by bounce:

START OF Q1

Centre bounce 1

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


Centre bounce 2

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


Centre bounce 3

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 4

ROB
Mrouch
Brouch
Keays

Result: Initial dispute then clear St Kilda win (Jones)


START OF Q2

Centre bounce 5

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Jones)


Centre bounce 6

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: St Kilda free kick leading to clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 7

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Free kick leading to clear Adelaide win (Keays)

Centre bounce 8

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Seedsman

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Steele)


Centre bounce 9

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Lengthy dispute before Adelaide win (Jones)

Centre bounce 10

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Ross)

Centre bounce 11

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Dispute leading to subsequent stoppage. General play on wing before eventually going Adelaide's way. (No clear result from initial centre bounce)

Centre bounce 12

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Free kick leading to Clear Adelaide win (Keays)


START OF Q3

Centre bounce 13

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: dispute leading to subsequent stoppage. St Kilda free kick (Geary).

Centre bounce 14

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


START OF Q4

Centre bounce 15

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)

Centre bounce 16

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Free kick leading to clear Adelaide win (Brouch)

Centre bounce 17

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Jones

Result: initial St Kilda win but turned over and ball won by Adelaide decisively (Mackay)


Centre bounce 18

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Initial dispute leading to clear St Kilda win (Patton)

Centre bounce 19

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 20

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Dispute leading to minor Adelaide win (Keays)


Centre bounce 21

ROB
Jones
Keays
Seedsman

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Keays)


END OF MATCH


K bye
 
Last edited:

Kezza86

Club Legend
Sep 28, 2014
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The following is a breakdown of the 20 centre bounces vs St Kilda.

Please note that whilst most of the bounces resulted in clear wins either way, some did not and I have tried to be descriptively short in what actually happened rather than be entirely precise around the definition of a clearance - I am not a statistician nor claim to be.

One interesting thing I found rewatching the tape was how much Jones focuses on his opponent rather than trying to get the ball. The one time he really went for it was that magical clearance for a Tex goal. I found it really weird - is he being coached to do that (he isn't pushing off to create space, he is basically turning his back on the ball).

Anyway, without further ado make of the data what you will:


START OF Q1

Centre bounce 1

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


Centre bounce 2

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


Centre bounce 3

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 4

ROB
Mrouch
Brouch
Keays

Result: Initial dispute then clear St Kilda win (Jones)


START OF Q2

Centre bounce 5

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Jones)


Centre bounce 6

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: St Kilda free kick leading to clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 7

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Free kick leading to clear Adelaide win (Keays)

Centre bounce 8

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Seedsman

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Steele)


Centre bounce 9

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Lengthy dispute before Adelaide win (Jones)

Centre bounce 10

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Ross)

Centre bounce 11

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Dispute leading to subsequent stoppage. General play on wing before eventually going Adelaide's way. (No clear result from initial centre bounce)

Centre bounce 12

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Free kick leading to Clear Adelaide win (Keays)


START OF Q3

Centre bounce 13

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: dispute leading to subsequent stoppage. St Kilda free kick (Geary).

Centre bounce 14

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


START OF Q4

Centre bounce 15

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)

Centre bounce 16

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Free kick leading to clear Adelaide win (Brouch)

Centre bounce 17

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Jones

Result: initial St Kilda win but turned over and ball won by Adelaide decisively (Mackay)


Centre bounce 18

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Initial dispute leading to clear St Kilda win (Patton)

Centre bounce 19

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 20

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Dispute leading to minor Adelaide win (Keays)


Centre bounce 21

ROB
Jones
Keays
Seedsman

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Keays)


END OF MATCH


Number of times at centre bounces:

ROB - 21
Keays - 18
Brouch - 14
Jones - 13
Mrouch - 12
Seedsman - 2

K bye
It would also be good if Champion Data release hit outs to advantage stat. That would give more insight to the above numbers. Makes you wonder whether not having a tap to advantage or the defensive game plan is a problem atm.
 
May 3, 2010
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Number of times at centre bounces:

ROB - 21
Keays - 18
Brouch - 14
Jones - 13
Mrouch - 12
Seedsman - 2
Interesting break down of numbers.
A very negative approach to the centre having Keays in there so often, as he is only really a stopper. Add a slow mover like Mrouch and it is all down to one player to do anything.
Surprised how many times Jones was in there - we should keep trying to develop his clearance work.
 
As much as I see there being a role for Keays being in there

Whenever I saw keys and the crouch bros in there together I’m already looking at the defenders to see their positioning.

Keays can’t stop 3 midfielders

Get a crouch out of there ffs
 
Aug 21, 2008
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I think our biggest problem with midfield set ups has been staring us in the face for the last few seasons. This is completely aside from the personnel issues.

We get sucked into the contest too easily as a collective. We'll have 3 midfielders within a 3 meter radius of the contested ball. When we do win it we have no clear options to feed it out and when they win it or it spills out, our mids are too flat footed inside the contest (and slow/disinterested at the moment) to be able to stop them getting a clearance or a break away.

To me is reaks of poor coaching and desperation by the players to win first touch without thinking about what comes next.
 

slice

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The fact that Seedsman attended any CBs is just bewildering. Does he put himself in there?

I thought Keays was bloody good in there especially with the defensive role but you just can't have him with the Crouch brothers.
 

Bob Neil

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We are amazingly bad at centre clearances...check out the table below of CCL on a round-by-round basis. Our opponents beat us 2 to 1 across the entire season!

Centre Clearances
ROUNDADEOPP
1520
21012
3512
4711
557
6413
7714
Sub-Total4389
% Share32.6%67.4%

If you take that a step further and analyse how we compare to the rest of the comp it is truly scary. If you're into statistics - our total of 43 CCL is 2.8 standard deviations from the competition average of 68...or in other words we're an absolute outlier that would be at the 99th percentile of a distribution of CCL

1595302308010.png

Strangely enough the situation for Stoppage Clearances is quite different - we basically breakeven (49/51 across the season) at stoppage clearances so it can't be as simple as saying ROB is a poor tap ruckman...there has to be something unique to the centre clearance situation that is drastically wrong.
 

Attachments

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We are amazingly bad at centre clearances...check out the table below of CCL on a round-by-round basis. Our opponents beat us 2 to 1 across the entire season!

Centre Clearances
ROUNDADEOPP
1520
21012
3512
4711
557
6413
7714
Sub-Total4389
% Share32.6%67.4%

If you take that a step further and analyse how we compare to the rest of the comp it is truly scary. If you're into statistics - our total of 43 CCL is 2.8 standard deviations from the competition average of 68...or in other words we're an absolute outlier that would be at the 99th percentile of a distribution of CCL

View attachment 916462
Strangely enough the situation for Stoppage Clearances is quite different - we basically breakeven (49/51 across the season) at stoppage clearances so it can't be as simple as saying ROB is a poor tap ruckman...there has to be something unique to the centre clearance situation that is drastically wrong.

My guess for the stoppage vs center clearance discrepancy is a combination of personnel and structure.

Around the ground we often go with a +1 at the contest, which is what bad teams do when they're losing. But you can't do a +1 in a center clearance. Combine that with us bizarrely thinking we need to have the Crouch brothers in there all the time, the actual bounce vs throw up difference and Clarke's inability to coach against a jumping ruck (which is far less likely to happen around the ground)... there's the issue

On top of that at center clearances our three players in the circle play extremely negative football, which is a coaching issue. No instinct to attack, it's all playing the man, not watching the ball, not thinking about position, not looking at getting to the ball. It's just purely on stopping opponents
 

Greenac

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My guess for the stoppage vs center clearance discrepancy is a combination of personnel and structure.

Around the ground we often go with a +1 at the contest, which is what bad teams do when they're losing. But you can't do a +1 in a center clearance. Combine that with us bizarrely thinking we need to have the Crouch brothers in there all the time, the actual bounce vs throw up difference and Clarke's inability to coach against a jumping ruck (which is far less likely to happen around the ground)... there's the issue

On top of that at center clearances our three players in the circle play extremely negative football, which is a coaching issue. No instinct to attack, it's all playing the man, not watching the ball, not thinking about position, not looking at getting to the ball. It's just purely on stopping opponents


Only 7/21 times did both Crouch bros attend the centre bounce which I would suggest is lower than it has been previously so at least we can see a shift there from same same but you are so right, the negativity is exasperating when you rewatch the tape and how they set up.
 
May 26, 2013
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The following is a breakdown of the 21 centre bounces vs St Kilda.

Main focus question:

- who is at our centre bounces and how often?

Deeper dive question:

- what happens when certain players or combinations are at centre bounce?

I am not a statistician nor claim to be. This is very raw data and other stats would no doubt tell more of the story, but this is outside of the scope of this work. I have been descriptively short by design.

Anyway, without further ado make of the data what you will:


Summary:

Number of times at centre bounces:

ROB - 21
Keays - 18
Brouch - 14
Jones - 13
Mrouch - 12
Seedsman - 2


Bounce by bounce:

START OF Q1

Centre bounce 1

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


Centre bounce 2

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


Centre bounce 3

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 4

ROB
Mrouch
Brouch
Keays

Result: Initial dispute then clear St Kilda win (Jones)


START OF Q2

Centre bounce 5

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Jones)


Centre bounce 6

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: St Kilda free kick leading to clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 7

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Free kick leading to clear Adelaide win (Keays)

Centre bounce 8

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Seedsman

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Steele)


Centre bounce 9

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Lengthy dispute before Adelaide win (Jones)

Centre bounce 10

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Ross)

Centre bounce 11

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Dispute leading to subsequent stoppage. General play on wing before eventually going Adelaide's way. (No clear result from initial centre bounce)

Centre bounce 12

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Free kick leading to Clear Adelaide win (Keays)


START OF Q3

Centre bounce 13

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: dispute leading to subsequent stoppage. St Kilda free kick (Geary).

Centre bounce 14

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Jones)


START OF Q4

Centre bounce 15

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)

Centre bounce 16

ROB
Brouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Free kick leading to clear Adelaide win (Brouch)

Centre bounce 17

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Jones

Result: initial St Kilda win but turned over and ball won by Adelaide decisively (Mackay)


Centre bounce 18

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Initial dispute leading to clear St Kilda win (Patton)

Centre bounce 19

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Clear St Kilda win (Gresham)


Centre bounce 20

ROB
Brouch
Mrouch
Keays

Result: Dispute leading to minor Adelaide win (Keays)


Centre bounce 21

ROB
Jones
Keays
Seedsman

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Keays)


END OF MATCH


K bye
Thanks for this, great stuff
 
Jun 7, 2011
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The fact that Seedsman attended any CBs is just bewildering. Does he put himself in there?

I thought Keays was bloody good in there especially with the defensive role but you just can't have him with the Crouch brothers.

I know McHenry is a kid and not going great, but he's an inside mid by nature, so if there's 2 left over why wouldn't he get a crack. Why waste them on an outside only player. It's rank stupidity. Seed will never turn into an inside mid, so why waste stoppage minutes on him?
 

slice

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I know McHenry is a kid and not going great, but he's an inside mid by nature, so if there's 2 left over why wouldn't he get a crack. Why waste them on an outside only player. It's rank stupidity. Seed will never turn into an inside mid, so why waste stoppage minutes on him?

Amen. Or Poholke. Or give Jones another couple even if he’s gassed. Having to be in there when he’s redlining will be good experience.
 

Greenac

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R8 VS BOMBERS

Quick Snapshots

Centre Clearances: Adel 6 - 11 Ess (-1 won centre Clearances compared to last week's 7)

Total Centre Bounces: 20 (-1 compared to last week)

Rotations Snapshot (**Note Brad Crouch out injured halfway through Q2**)

ROB - 20 (100% no change)
Brouch - 3 (injured Q2)
Mrouch - 15 (75% up 18% from last week)
Jones - 17 (85% up 24% from last week)
Keays - 14 (70% down 16%)
Smith - 10 (50% none last week)
Seedman - 1 (5% down 5% from last week)

Centre Clearance breakdown:

START OF Q1

Centre bounce 1

ROB
Brouch
Jones
Smith

Result: Quick stoppage


Centre bounce 2

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear Essendon win (Parish)


Centre bounce 3

ROB
Mrouch
Brouch
Keays

Result: Quick stoppage


Centre bounce 4

ROB
Mrouch
Brouch
Jones

Result: Clear Essendon win (Hibberd)


START OF Q2

Centre bounce 5

ROB
Smith
Jones
Keays

Result: Clear Essendon win (Merrett)


Centre bounce 6

ROB
Mrouch
Smith
Keays

Result: Initial dispute then clear Adelaide win

Centre bounce 7

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: clear Essendon win (Bellchambers)

Centre bounce 8

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Free kick to Essendon (McGrath)


Centre bounce 9

ROB
Seedsman
Jones
Keays

Result: Adelaide win (O'Brien)

Centre bounce 10

ROB
Smith
Mrouch
Jones

Result: Clear Essendon win (McKernan)

START QTR 3

Centre bounce 11

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: clear Adelaide win (Keays)

Centre bounce 12

ROB
Jones
Smith
Keays

Result: Disputed ball out to wing out of bounds stoppage


Centre bounce 13

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: Essendon win (Bellchambers).

Centre bounce 14

ROB
Mrouch
Keays
Smith

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Smith)



Centre bounce 15

ROB
Mrouch
Smith
Jones

Result: Disputed Adelaide win ()

Centre bounce 16

ROB
Mrouch
Smith
Jones

Result: dispute leading to clear Adelaide win (Mrouch)

Centre bounce 17

ROB
Smith
Keays
Jones

Result: Free kick to Essendon (McGrath)

START Q4

Centre bounce 18

ROB
Mrouch
Jones
Keays

Result: clear Essendon win (McGrath)

Centre bounce 19

ROB
Smith
Mrouch
Jones

Result: Clear Adelaide win (Smith)


Centre bounce 20

ROB
Mrouch
Keays
Jones

Result: Dispute leading to Essendon win (Merrett)


END OF MATCH
 

Greenac

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watching Jones lock up his opponent is yet again sad. Rarely gets front position where he otherwise might be able to. One time he actually let himself off the chain he nearly pulled off a magic moment (got done HTB as he didnt dispose correctly).
 

mattymac

Why no midfield crowz?
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Are you keeping a record of our most successful to least successful CB combos?

Could be interesting once a fair sample size builds up
 

Greenac

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Are you keeping a record of our most successful to least successful CB combos?

Could be interesting once a fair sample size builds up

I've got a few other notes and stats I am keeping record of including that yes. At some point I will completely redesign this to be easier to read etc and have those details.

I was going to have individual win rates and combination win rates but too many individuals and combos are equal.

So yes, as you say once I get a decent size where there is genuine separation I'll get something more each week. I have high hopes of working through past games too.
 
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We are amazingly bad at centre clearances...check out the table below of CCL on a round-by-round basis. Our opponents beat us 2 to 1 across the entire season!

Strangely enough the situation for Stoppage Clearances is quite different - we basically breakeven (49/51 across the season) at stoppage clearances so it can't be as simple as saying ROB is a poor tap ruckman...there has to be something unique to the centre clearance situation that is drastically wrong.
I think it's because body on body ROB more than holds his own which is the case at around the ground stoppages and boundary ball ins whereas with Centre bounces ROB is being generally out jumped by the likes of the high leaping Nic Nat, Brodie Grundy and Paddy Ryder where it's purely an athletic contest, and outreached by the man mountains like Max Gawn and Jarrod Witts etc.
 
Last edited:

Greenac

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Champion Data who I understand do the stats for Footywire differ.

Adelaide Centre Clearances : 6
3 M. Crouch

1 B. Smith
1 R. O'Brien
1 T Stengle

Essendon Centre Clearances : 11
4 A. McGrath

2 T. Bellchambers
2 Z. Merrett
1 D. Parish
1 M. Hibberd
1 S. McKernan

View attachment 920340
View attachment 920341

There is little doubt I've made an error or two so thanks for this. I will preface by saying I don't hold myself to the strict terms of what is deemed a centre clearance that actual statisticians do. If its a scrappy contest and then a dribbler out from someone's foot I dont bother working out who kicked it off the ground and leaveit unattributed. I just put a very brief summary of what happened. Imprecise but I think a better picture of our centre bounce structure if just the very clear wins.

I really don't remember Stengle being jn there and I have Keays as making s clearance but perhaps that was leftover from the saints game template I used. Maybe I mistook Stengle for someone else.

Ill revisit that 3rd qtr and see as I think most likely it happened there. Thanks again.
 
Sep 2, 2015
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I know McHenry is a kid and not going great, but he's an inside mid by nature, so if there's 2 left over why wouldn't he get a crack. Why waste them on an outside only player. It's rank stupidity. Seed will never turn into an inside mid, so why waste stoppage minutes on him?
It's a hard one because by the looks they want Jones in the middle as much as possible and he does need that time.
The problem is and always will be both Jones and Ned are small.
We would have zero chance of winning clearance with both of them in the centre even if we had a half decent tap ruckman.
 
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