Opinion Who is worth Pick 1 or more?

[Baird]

Cripps
Curnow
Grundy
De Goey
Treloar
Daniher
Fyfe
Kelly
Greene
Cameron
Conigilio
Shiel
Mitchell
Hogan
Gawn
Oliver
Brown
Martin
Yeo
Bontempelli
Macrae

Rayner, Stephenson, Mccluggage, Cerra, McGrath and Taranto too if they improve further in 2019

Imo

 

[Suitcase]

Hardly guaranteed a gun every time. Look at the pick ones from the last decade.

2008 - Jack Watts
2009 - Tom Scully
2010 - David Swallow
2011 - Johnathan Patton
2012 - Lachie Whitfield
2013 - Tom Boyd
2014 - Patrick McCartin
2015 - Jacob Weitering
2016 - Andrew McGrath
2017 - Cameron Rayner

Jury is still out on a few of those players. Mccartin, Swallow and Patton have all suffered from injuries but have all shown good footy. Boyd has suffered from mental illness. The rest are looking to be very good players and I don't think any of them will be a bust.

Go back a couple more years and Hodge, Reiwoldt, Goddard, Murphy, Deledio and Gibbs turned out alright.

It's a bit of a lotto but you've got a chance of getting a once in a generation type player like a Hodge or Reiwoldt.

 

[TheSierBear]

Who is giving up pick 1 for 30-year-old Pendlebury?

And definitely not nicnat. Will be 30 when he plays next coming of his second acl

 

[TheSierBear]

From Collingwood.

Treloar, Grundy, Degoey, Stephenson.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

No one from us, closest would be Matt Crouch, Laird or Doedee all around pick 5. Pick 1 is overrated, none of the recent pick 1s would be worth pick 1.

I'd give up pick one for Gawn, Fyfe, Grundy, Cripps, Oliver, Yeo, Macrae, Bont, Hogan or Andrews.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

And definitely not nicnat. Will be 30 when he plays next coming of his second acl

Is this a response to something I said? You'll get no argument from me. Is that meant to be some kind of retribution for my post questioning pick 1 for Pendlebury?

"Yeah but ... not for NicNat either!"

Yeah, agreed. What's your point?

 

[blitzer]

There'd probably be a few players worth pick 1 at nearly every club. Its not some mythical pick which gets you a guaranteed multiple brownlow medalist, most of the time it results in pretty good players that go onto to play 200 games.

The reason we never see pick 1 traded is that nobody wants to give up those kind of players. eg from Essendon I wouldn't give up any of Daniher, Merrett or Fantasia for pick 1. It would just set us back. There's every chance you end up with a worse player too or you end up with an equivalent player that has years less development and is less useful for going after a premiership in the next few years.

For a side that's really in the premiership hunt that somehow ended up with pick 1, you'd probably be willing to trade it for some older type midfield guns of the competition as well, but obviously that won't work out if you're down the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Jesslc]

For all the people suggesting players who are 26+. Absolutely no chance (borderline idiotic).

Noones trading a pick 1 for a player theyll get 4 premium years out of.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Cunnington
Brown
LDU
Daw
EVW
Goldstein (will accept a pick in the teens if need be)
Higgins (2018 brownlow medalist)
Ahern
Dusty (2017 version. He's on the decline now)
Kelly (2020 version. Maybe 2019)

We will trade you Kelly and Sheil for Ed Vickers-Wills? Deal?

 

[Jesslc]

We will trade you Kelly and Sheil for Ed Vickers-Wills? Deal?

It's Shiel....

Maybe learn your players names...

 

[Suitcase]

Pick 1 is incredibly overrated if you think there’s only 4 or 5 players you’d take.

From Brisbane I’d give pick 1 for any of Andrews, Hipwood, McCluggage, Berry or Rayner.

Of course you would say that being a Lions supporter though.
If you had pick 1 this year as a Lions list manager who would you trade it for?

Clubs seem to rate picks very highly. If you look back at previous trades, only the very best players command a top 10 pick, let alone pick 1. Lachie Weller last year was an exception, that trade has been universally agreed upon that the Suns paid massive overs.

 

[Checkered]

Hardly guaranteed a gun every time. Look at the pick ones from the last decade.

2008 - Jack Watts
2009 - Tom Scully
2010 - David Swallow
2011 - Johnathan Patton
2012 - Lachie Whitfield
2013 - Tom Boyd
2014 - Patrick McCartin
2015 - Jacob Weitering
2016 - Andrew McGrath
2017 - Cameron Rayner

Back to my post on the last page, I'd pretty easily take Curnow over every single player on this list.

Whitfield and Sculpt are next best but they're not in the same class as Curnow. Rayner is a chance to be as good as him though.

The chances of drafting a top 30 player in the league with pick 1 is definitely below 20% I reckon.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

It's Shiel....

Maybe learn your players names...

Pardon me for an auto-correct mistake in my lunch break

 

[Suitcase]

Back to my post on the last page, I'd pretty easily take Curnow over every single player on this list.

Whitfield and Sculpt are next best but they're not in the same class as Curnow. Rayner is a chance to be as good as him though.

The chances of drafting a top 30 player in the league with pick 1 is definitely below 20% I reckon.

I disagree.

If we look at the last 20 number 1 draft picks, I'd have the following players as top 30 in the comp at some point of their respective careers:

- Travis Johnstone (came 4th in a Brownlow)
- Nick Reiwoldt (arguably the best forward of his generation)
- Luke Hodge (triple premiership captain)
- Brendon Goddard (top 5 player in his prime)
- Adam Cooney (Brownlow medalist)
- Brett Deledio (2x AA)
- Marc Murphy (AA, 2x best n fairests)
- Bryce Gibbs (Best n fairest winner)
- Tom Scully (top 30 when he's fit)
- Lachie Whitfield (current top 30 on recent form)
A bit early to call on Boyd, Mccartin, Weitering, Mcgrath and Rayner.

That's at 50% rate even if we write the last 5 picks off.

 

[Jesslc]

Pardon me for an auto-correct mistake in my lunch break

Well let auto correct know its Ed Vickers-Willis too.

 

[Ambrosia]

Adelaide
- M.Crouch
- Laird

Brisbane
- Rayner
- Mcluggage
- Hipwood
- Andrews


Carlton
- Cripps
- Curnow

Collingwood
- Treolor
- De Goey
- Stephenson
- Grundy

Essendon
- Daniher
- Merrett
- Fantasia
- McGrath

Fremantle
- Neale
- Fyfe
- Cerra

Geelong
- Dangerfield

Gold Coast
- Lynch


GWS
- Cameron
- Kelly
- Shiel
- Whitfield
- Taranto


Hawthorn
- Mitchell
- Sicily

Melbourne
- Oliver
- Hogan
- Gawn
- Lever
- McDonald

North Melbourne
- Brown

Port Adelaide
- Wingard
- Wines

Richmond
- Martin
- Rance

St Kilda
- Gresham

Sydney
- Heeney
- Mills
- Hayward

West Coast
- McGovern

Western Bulldogs
- Bontempelli
- Macrae

 

[Baird]

I disagree.

If we look at the last 20 number 1 draft picks, I'd have the following players as top 30 in the comp at some point of their respective careers:

- Travis Johnstone (came 4th in a Brownlow)
- Nick Reiwoldt (arguably the best forward of his generation)
- Luke Hodge (triple premiership captain)
- Brendon Goddard (top 5 player in his prime)
- Adam Cooney (Brownlow medalist)
- Brett Deledio (2x AA)
- Marc Murphy (AA, 2x best n fairests)
- Bryce Gibbs (Best n fairest winner)
- Tom Scully (top 30 when he's fit)
- Lachie Whitfield (current top 30 on recent form)
A bit early to call on Boyd, Mccartin, Weitering, Mcgrath and Rayner.

That's at 50% rate even if we write the last 5 picks off.

Swallow is a club champion and Kreuzer has been a good player, as well

 

[captain cotch 9]

#1 pick is so over rated!
No way would I trade Martin, Rance, Cotchin or Reiwoldt for pick 1
Even Edwards, Vlaustin, Grimes & Astbury would need some convincing IMO.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Well let auto correct know its Ed Vickers-Willis too.

Fine, if we give you Sheil, Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio and our first rounder, how about Vickers-Willis?

 

[Jesslc]

Fine, if we give you Sheil, Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio and our first rounder, how about Vickers-Willis?

Naaaah...your first rounder is gonna be like 14th-16th. not interested.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

#1 pick is so over rated!
No way would I trade Martin, Rance, Cotchin or Reiwoldt for pick 1
Even Edwards, Vlaustin, Grimes & Astbury would need some convincing IMO.

You wouldn't trade a 29 year old Shane Edwards, to take the best 18 year old prospect in Australia?

 

[captain cotch 9]

You wouldn't trade a 29 year old Shane Edwards, to take the best 18 year old prospect in Australia?

Right now.
No.
He is a massive part of our team while we are pushing for another flag or two.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Right now.
No.
He is a massive part of our team while we are pushing for another flag or two.

I find that baffling personally.

But great to see supporters having such faith in their players. Edwards (along with Astbury, Grimes and Vlaustin) have had nice careers for you guys.

What would you put Brandon Ellis' or Reece Conca's trade value at?

 

[Checkered]

Not that baffling wanting to keep a guy in your top 6 or so players if you're seriously in a flag window

 

[cotter101]

Of course you would say that being a Lions supporter though.
If you had pick 1 this year as a Lions list manager who would you trade it for?

Clubs seem to rate picks very highly. If you look back at previous trades, only the very best players command a top 10 pick, let alone pick 1. Lachie Weller last year was an exception, that trade has been universally agreed upon that the Suns paid massive overs.

There’d probably be close to 30 players in the league I’d trade it for.

Have a look how many players that have been taken 2-5 are better than the pick 1 since 2000.