Opinion Who is worth Pick 1 or more?

Shaz2012

Cancelled
Sep 15, 2012
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yeah I reckon the italics was unnecessary. The underline, bold and caps was enough...

I would trade a 29 year old Jack Riewoldt for a number 1 pick in Jack Lukosius in a heart beat. You'd be unbelievably stupid not to.

Imagine saying no to 18 year old Nick Riewoldt to keep 29 year old Jack Riewoldt lol. It would be the biggest draft/trade blunder of all time.

And fyi, I was more laughing at the idea you'd keep Edwards (29), Grimes or Astbury instead of Jack Lukosius. That really makes you look silly. Might wanna step outside the richmond bubble for a second.

Most of the players he listed were ridiculous. But you have to take into account Tigers are in a window and when it’s over they won’t win a flag for another 40 years. They would be stupid to trade away players that could cost them a flag in the next 2 years. Even for an 18 year old Nick Riewoldt.
 
Jun 11, 2007
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seriously, there are a ton of players i would give up pick 1 for.

Fyfe, Cripps, Heeney, Lynch, Curnow, Grundy, Gawn, Brayshaw, Petracca, Bont, Macrae, Matt Crouch, Laird, Rayner, Andrews, JDG, WHE, Shiel, Kelly, Coniglio, Wines, Oliver, Martin, Rance, Buddy, Danger, Titch, Jaeger, Sicily, Gresham, Billings, Lynch....off the top of my head.

Pick 1 is still a gamble. If any decent AFL player was up for grabs, i'd trade it.
 

Flags_In_The_Bag

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 17, 2014
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Other Teams
Not a fan of overseas teams.....
Adelaide
- M.Crouch
- Laird

Brisbane
- Rayner
- Mcluggage
- Hipwood
- Andrews


Carlton
- Cripps
- Curnow

Collingwood
- Treolor
- De Goey
- Stephenson
- Grundy

Essendon
- Daniher
- Merrett
- Fantasia
- McGrath

Fremantle
- Neale
- Fyfe
- Cerra

Geelong
- Dangerfield

Gold Coast
- Lynch


GWS
- Cameron
- Kelly
- Shiel
- Whitfield
- Taranto


Hawthorn
- Mitchell
- Sicily

Melbourne
- Oliver
- Hogan
- Gawn
- Lever
- McDonald

North Melbourne
- Brown

Port Adelaide
- Wingard
- Wines

Richmond
- Martin
- Rance

St Kilda
- Gresham

Sydney
- Heeney
- Mills
- Hayward

West Coast
- McGovern

Western Bulldogs
- Bontempelli
- Macrae
Absolutely not a number one pick for the highlight ones.
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
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Adelaide:Noone
Brisbane: Raynar, Hipwood, Andrews
Carlton: Cripps, Curnow
Collingwood: Grundy, Treloar, Stephenson
Essendon: Daniher
Fremantle: Fyfe
Geelong: Dangerfield
Gold Coast: Lynch
GWS: Kelly, Whitfield, Cameron, Taranto
Hawthorn: Mitchell, Sicily
Melbourne: Gawn, Oliver, Mcdonald
North Melbourne: Brown
Port: Wingard
Richmond: Martin
St Kilda: Noone
Sydney: Heeney
West Coast: Yeo, Gaff (Yes)
WBD: Macrae, Bont
 

OnceKicked50

Cancelled
Aug 15, 2015
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seriously, there are a ton of players i would give up pick 1 for.

Fyfe, Cripps, Heeney, Lynch, Curnow, Grundy, Gawn, Brayshaw, Petracca, Bont, Macrae, Matt Crouch, Laird, Rayner, Andrews, JDG, WHE, Shiel, Kelly, Coniglio, Wines, Oliver, Martin, Rance, Buddy, Danger, Titch, Jaeger, Sicily, Gresham, Billings, Lynch....off the top of my head.

Pick 1 is still a gamble. If any decent AFL player was up for grabs, i'd trade it.

I agree there is plenty of players worth pick 1. However no chance Laird, Petracca, Macrae, Crouch, Raynar, Wines, Gresham, Brayshaw or Billings (wtf) would net pick 1.
 

Shaz2012

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Sep 15, 2012
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I agree there is plenty of players worth pick 1. However no chance Laird, Petracca, Macrae, Crouch, Raynar, Wines, Gresham, Brayshaw or Billings (wtf) would net pick 1.

Pick 1 is over-rated. And Rayner was last years number 1 lol.
 
With pick 1 you have to assume a few things - that:

1. The club isn't doing too well, hence getting pick 1; and,
2. They're probably lacking in certain key spots.

In that case, though Talented - I think you can rule out (almost) any player who is over 28, and any player like a James Sicily, Lachie Whitfield and others whose games are dependent on performances from the rest of the team.

The only players worth pick 1 to a team that would have it are:

1. Incredibly good rucks (Gawn, Grundy)
2. Dominant midfielders (Dusty, Treloar, Kelly, Cripps)
3. Generational KPP (Rance, Kennedy)

You'd also probably give it up for a few players over 28 provided they're absolute superstars and not on the wrong side of 30 - so from 28-30 you'd probably give it up for Ablett, Franklin or Hodge.

Note: not an exhaustive list, just examples.
 

lollol

Club Legend
Jun 14, 2014
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Picks are ovverated. Its a lottery even at pick 1. would rather have a guy that will kick 40-50+ goals per year or be one of the best intercept players in the comp or a young gun mid like Jeagar & Mitchell.


People worth pick 1 or more from Hawthorn:
Sicily
Mitchell
Bruest
Gunston
O'Meara


im sure ill get people who strongly disagree but its more how you rate pick 1 rather than how your rate the current players.
Agree with all but o’meara
 

Turtles all the way down

Average depth player
Apr 25, 2018
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AFL Club
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I reckon that Pick 1 suffers a bit from "The money or the box?" syndrome. They are an unknown, and have a potentially limitless ceiling, which can sometimes increase their perceived value compared to a 23 year old known quantity, even though the risk factor should also work against them as they could equally turn out to be a bust.

Another thing to consider is that an 18 year old number 1 pick will still take a few years to really hit their stride. And then, by 25, they will enter the free trade market and their club is faced with the prospect of either losing them or paying free agent money to keep them. The team that drafted them might only get 4 years of their services at peak performance if they leave, and paying free agency money to keep an existing player prevents the team from paying that money to lure a free agent from elsewhere.

A 23 year old trade-in, however, will be approaching their peak when first traded, but will be 31 by the time they are eligible for free agency at which point their value will be negligible. This avoids the whole free agency issue altogether.

As a result, I would be inclined to trade pick 1 for a solid 23 year old A grade player, rather than holding out for an A+ superstar.
 
Oct 21, 2015
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Pretty much every decent draft guru would have Raynar outside the top 6 in this year draft.

I don't think pick 1 is at all overrated this year. Ultimately, it comes down to where you think your side is at.

Hahahah not a chance.

Definitely not after proving he can match it at this level too.
 

OnceKicked50

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Hahahah not a chance.

Definitely not after proving he can match it at this level too.

Obviously I'm not expecting a Lions fan to concede on this point. However, it's pretty much common knowledge to most who follow the under 18 competion all of Lukosius, Walsh, Rankine, Smith and the King brothers would have gone ahead of Raynar last year.
 
Nov 11, 2010
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Obviously I'm not expecting a Lions fan to concede on this point. However, it's pretty much common knowledge to most who follow the under 18 competion all of Lukosius, Walsh, Rankine, Smith and the King brothers would have gone ahead of Raynar last year.

It’s not exactly knowledge moreso as it is an opinion.
 

Cleric

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 14, 2011
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Adelaide:Noone
Brisbane: Raynar, Hipwood, Andrews
Carlton: Cripps, Curnow
Collingwood: Grundy, Treloar, Stephenson
Essendon: Daniher
Fremantle: Fyfe
Geelong: Dangerfield
Gold Coast: Lynch
GWS: Kelly, Whitfield, Cameron, Taranto
Hawthorn: Mitchell, Sicily
Melbourne: Gawn, Oliver, Mcdonald
North Melbourne: Brown
Port: Wingard
Richmond: Martin
St Kilda: Noone
Sydney: Heeney
West Coast: Yeo, Gaff (Yes)
WBD: Macrae, Bont
Lol. Yeo but not Matt Crouch....oh my.
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
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Lol. Yeo but not Matt Crouch....oh my.
Yeo is a match winner.

Crouch is not... At least Mitchell's handballs are contested. Crouch is a stationary target in the middle of the ground getting cheap 1-2 handballs.
 
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