Who Misses Out on the 8?

[MC Extra Dollop]

We didn't just beat North twice last year we also finished ahead of them on the ladder and played finals while they didn't, the year before that we came within a bounce of a premiership while they missed the finals again.

Cool, guess we can lock Geelong in for the flag again in 2012 then.

 

[scooterselwood]

it's may

So? It's not like we're predicting the 2019 ladder...people are just giving their opinion as to0 who will make the 8 and the end of this year.

No need to be upset just because Port won't make it.

 

[Scodog10]

Cool, guess we can lock Geelong in for the flag again in 2012 then.

I guess that means more heartbreak for me then, going by Plugger's logic

 

[Verbeek]

North supporters were telling us last year that our window had closed, our team was past it and their young guns were going to smash us. We beat you both times last year and the second time was a flogging, neither side has changed significantly from that game.

Have to laugh at you lecturing people on being deluded about their team's chances, no group of supporters are more deluded about their team's chances than North supporters. Maybe the reason you struggled to beat Gold Coast is your team actually isn't as good as you think it is.

North are a young side on the up.

Saints are an old side on the slide.

Tell me about the St Kilda youngsters that have led you to believe that North hasnt improved any more than St Kilda?

It's 2012, not 2009.

 

[lewdogs]

If the Saints win tonight then we are definitely hugely in the mix. Big if though, but I think we need a tough game to see where we're at.

In all honesty we should have won the Freo game, we were pretty unlucky (umpiring included) and didn't convert chances.

We're not playing that well at the moment but a big win could start things rolling. We looked great against the Dogs.

Those writing us off for finals are a bit deluded in my opinion.

 

[Verbeek]

Come round 17 / 18 the scribes will be saying pies and cats flag to lose Both clubs building their season very nicely. Eagles Swans Blues and the Hawks can please themselves. regards the OP Crows or Essendon will probally miss, but wouldnt be surprised Hawthorn missing They seem to be a Franklin injury away from season going balls up.

If that helps you sleep at night champ

 

[Tas]

You've got an appropriate username.

We didn't just beat North twice last year we also finished ahead of them on the ladder and played finals while they didn't, the year before that we came within a bounce of a premiership while they missed the finals again.

Yet I'm the one being irrational for suggesting we're still a better team than North.

We weren't better than Saints in 2011. It is a different year, however. The two form teams to date are Essendon and Swans and these are the only two teams we have lost to and not significantly. We lost to the Bombers and had a kick after the siren to win that game and against the Swans we didn't adjust well to wet conditions but the indicators were positive, we won the clearances, contested disposals, inside 50s and there was just 1 scoring shot different between us, when one team has 61% accuracy and the other 37% then you are cactus.

I am not implying we deserved to win vs Swans or Bombers, they played better on the day and deserved the wins but I don't think we are far off the form sides, statistically we are not. We are still a young developing side, we are not a realistic contender this year but I think there are positive signs in terms of us taking the right steps.

People are preoccupied about 2011. That year is over and it is over by a big margin, Nathan Buckley has already seen the signs and has said the top teams of 2011 have lost the gap they had on the rest of the competition already. The press took advantage of the age old strategy of putting your worst users of the ball in the back line and the weaker teams took a lot longer to evolve and get better users of the ball and getting more pace into the back line.

People say Geelong was down against us, they kicked 16.18, teams that don't come to play don't have 34 scoring shots. Their press just didn't work with the effectiveness it worked in 2011 and it hasn't worked as well as it used to for any team, against any half decent side. That is a warning sign and it is why Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn have struggled, the press no longer gives them a 10 goal advantage.

We beat Geelong convincingly in clearances, had more contested disposals, more inside 50s. Geelong hasn't won the contested possession count this year. Geelong didn't have a bad day, the competition is evolving and the competition is wide open this year because teams like Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Eagles can't rock up and expect the press to get them over the line, they are in for a rude shock if they do not adapt. If the Dogs had a resemblance of a forward line they would have rolled the Pies, 2011 is dead and buried.

 

[Plugger35]

North are a young side on the up.

Saints are an old side on the slide.

Tell me about the St Kilda youngsters that have led you to believe that North hasnt improved any more than St Kilda?

It's 2012, not 2009.

Not saying North haven't improved any more than St Kilda just that people are wrong to say we are an old side with no good youngsters and are on the slide with no chance of improvement.

Steven, Stanley, Geary, Armitage, Cripps, Milera and Newnes have all been good so far this year and we also have the likes of Siposs and Ledger who haven't made an appearance yet this year but are two of our most promising youngsters. Siposs is playing tonight against the Hawks.

 

[Tas]

Not saying North haven't improved any more than St Kilda just that people are wrong to say we are an old side with no good youngsters and are on the slide with no chance of improvement.

Steven, Stanley, Geary, Armitage, Cripps, Milera and Newnes have all been good so far this year and we also have the likes of Siposs and Ledger who haven't made an appearance yet this year but are two of our most promising youngsters. Siposs is playing tonight against the Hawks.

I don't think anyone has said that Saints don't have any good young players, Lyon just poorly developed younger players during his time, which happens when teams are having a crack at a flag.

In terms of not being old, Hayes is 32, Milne 32, Blake 31, Fisher and Reiwoldt turn 30 this year, Peake and Montagna turn 29 while Dempster, Jones, Dal Santo and Gram are 28.

Looking at what is ahead of that 28 year line and what is below the 28 line there isn't a lot of players on the other side of the line that are both talented and well established players and Goddard who is probably the best below that line is a high flight risk.

That is the only reason people believe Saints will slide, there will be a transition period where you need to accumulate a lot of talented youngsters and it will take them 50-100 games to be good consistent footballers.

It doesn't mean the transition period will be long and painful, it is a good time to rebuild during strong draft periods, we picked up a number of very good young players over a handful of drafts, we just lacked the senior players to give us that stability.

 

[McCrann]

this is a top 8 out of 18 teams not 16 as we are use to.

In the past 11 and % got you in most years with 12 a guarantee.

with the extra 2 clubs being generally easy beats it could well take 14 wins to make the 8.

You will definitely need 13 wins to make the finals, but it is possible the team finishing 9th could also have 13 wins.

 

[PAFC_1870]

It's May, who cares.

 

[McCrann]

Bollocks mate, it was the umpires who lost them those games; technically Saints are undefeated this year.

Good point. Maybe you and I can make a joint submission to the AFL to get the St Kilda v Fremantle result overturned?

 

[Furuncle]

I ran through the ladder predictor recently and had Essendon finishing 9th, one win behind Geelong/Fremantle in 7th/8th, and Adelaide finishing another two games further back in 10th.

I believe I had

Eagles 17 wins
-
Carlton 16 wins
Collingwood
Sydney
-
Hawthorn 15 wins
North
-
Fremantle 14 wins
Geelong
----------
Essendon 13 wins
-
Adelaide 11 wins

How often do you get 9/9 or 8/9 in your weekly tipping comp?

What makes you think you're tips for Rounds 20, 21, 22 or 23 are going to be more accurate than your tips for this weekend?

 

[bulletproof]

It's May, who cares.

Well its not much fun making a prediction in August when the 8 is already settled. That is why people make predictions because it is a challenge to get it right.

 

[Andrew Mc]

For example, his ladder would be the most lopsided in AFL history with the bottom 8 sides sharing in 48 wins altogether.

Last year 11.5 wins was enough, now people suggest 14 wins this year?

It's ridiculous. You can't just use 5 weeks of stats and base a season on it.

That ladder is a joke, all he's done is ordered the teams out by what he thinks is right and then given them the win when they play a team of lower stature (in his mind) - then voila!

Anyone who thinks 14 wins to make the finals doesn't understand the AFL season and its ups and downs.

You came out and said 48 games won for the bottom 8 was unrealistic. I disagree, it's quite possible considering the bottom 8 won just 52 last year (that's not just based on 5 games, that's fact) and we have a new team that will struggle to win any games (unlikely they'll win 3, which is what GC managed last year).

Ok, it's now on the eve of round 21. The bottom 8 sides have a combined total of 34 wins. The teams in both 8th and 9th have 11 wins, with 3 rounds to play.

So, less than 48 wins for the bottom 8 is very likely. 14 wins to make the 8 is very possible (and 13 is pretty much a given).

 

[syl]

Ok, it's now on the eve of round 21. The bottom 8 sides have a combined total of 34 wins. The teams in both 8th and 9th have 11 wins, with 3 rounds to play.

So, less than 48 wins for the bottom 8 is very likely. 14 wins to make the 8 is very possible (and 13 is pretty much a given).

The bottom 8 have 44 wins. 13 is going to be required, but not 14!!!!

 

[jusjoshin]

Ok, it's now on the eve of round 21. The bottom 8 sides have a combined total of 34 wins. The teams in both 8th and 9th have 11 wins, with 3 rounds to play.

So, less than 48 wins for the bottom 8 is very likely. 14 wins to make the 8 is very possible (and 13 is pretty much a given).

14 wins will definitely get a team into the finals, I *think* 13.5 definitely will as well (if Freo and North drew). It is still possible to miss out with 13 wins, although quite unlikely.

Carlton and the Saints are still a minor chance to make the 8, and West Coast are still a minor chance to miss.

 

[.Shotties.]

It's really strange how the guideline age jumps around when discussing teams in their prime. I've seen it set anywhere from 30-24.

 

[Andrew Mc]

The bottom 8 have 44 wins. 13 is going to be required, but not 14!!!!

Whoops, missed Carlton - easy enough to do I guess. So yeah, 48 is unlikely at the end of the year (although should still be within 10 of that). I still think 14 is quite possible, but will be 13 at least.

 

[mufassa]

The bottom 8 have 44 wins. 13 is going to be required, but not 14!!!!

It was still a pretty good call back in May - 13 wins and a team could still miss the 8.

 

[syl]

It was still a pretty good call back in May - 13 wins and a team could still miss the 8.

Definitely a good call back then and pretty good ladder too.

But screw them!

 

[Coaster2012]

As a west coast fan I hope saints slip into 8th, unlikely though. Bombers would be my second choice to play at Suby as West Coast will likely finish 5th. I don't want to play Freo, simply because the home ground advantage doesn't exist then and Freo are inspired right now. I would give Geelong another crack, not my top choice, but you could bet it would be a great game to watch. You think fans were bad last time, jesus, Chris Scott would need personal security and ear plugs.

 

[mufassa]

As a west coast fan I hope saints slip into 8th, unlikely though. Bombers would be my second choice to play at Suby as West Coast will likely finish 5th. I don't want to play Freo, simply because the home ground advantage doesn't exist then and Freo are inspired right now. I would give Geelong another crack, not my top choice, but you could bet it would be a great game to watch. You think fans were bad last time, jesus, Chris Scott would need personal security and ear plugs.

If the Swans win next week you can still finish 4th.

 

[Coaster2012]

If the Swans win next week you can still finish 4th.

It's possible, especially with Kennedy back in the side next week, we could beat the pies. So sure, its possible, but unlikely.