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Who should of been granted entry into AFL first?
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Santos L Helper
Cancelled
When will some of you people learn to write in English? Should of? Sorry but it's, should have!
Sorry to be pedantic, but it happens in almost every post. Just the teacher coming out in me.
Sorry to be pedantic, but it happens in almost every post. Just the teacher coming out in me.
P
PiesPremiers
Guest
why isnt there a "who cares" option again?????
- Mar 4, 2001
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- Lions: Est. 1883, 11 Flags. PAFC
Well bloody said! And if I see someone else write "one criteria" I'll go ape********. It's "one criterion," "two, three, four (etc.) criteria." Even the newspapers tool that one up, and thanks to internet access to them make Australians look like dimwits.
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topdon
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Other pet hates are there .... instead of they're and;
their instead of there and visa versa.
There are a few others, but when it comes to grammer, I do get rather pedantic.
their instead of there and visa versa.
There are a few others, but when it comes to grammer, I do get rather pedantic.
Lets just forget about the poll for a second and can i ask...
Who do you think should be the NEXT club to be accepted into the AFL, just say that one of the current clubs drops out.
Who do you think should be the NEXT club to be accepted into the AFL, just say that one of the current clubs drops out.
Santos L Helper
Cancelled
Topdon, I can cope with the their, there etc because that can be an honest mistake. Most of the time I don't really care about the language/grammar used here, but this one point (of vs have) gets me all the time.
Another one the newspapers are now using is their description of a species becoming 'endemic to an area'. Well I'm sorry but a species can not become endemic to an area, it is endemic to an area. Next time you read an article about any animal/plant species under threat, I'll guarantee that you'll see this in there.
Another one the newspapers are now using is their description of a species becoming 'endemic to an area'. Well I'm sorry but a species can not become endemic to an area, it is endemic to an area. Next time you read an article about any animal/plant species under threat, I'll guarantee that you'll see this in there.
- Moderator
- #8
Joshhem the AFL has made it quite public that they desire second sides in NSW and Queensland eventually. In my view Southport will be the next AFL club due to their existing infrastructure, which is already better than some existing AFL clubs. Southport have already been told by the AFL to be ready and as a result have already approached a small number of Melbourne clubs, about the possibility of relocation. If admitted they will play most of their home games from the Gabba.
- Moderator
- #10
Who will barrack for them?
For argument's sake let's take St Kilda and imagine they are the relocated team. They become the Southport Saints playing in St Kilda colours, retaining much of St. Kilda's history, traditions and records in much the same manner as South Melbourne/Sydney. Out of all the interstate clubs you would probably agree Dan that Sydney has the highest Victorian support.
Making a couple of logical projections, based on what has happened to South Melbourne supporters re Sydney and Fitzroy supporters re Brisbane Lions, I would expect support for the Southport Saints to come from the following areas.
1. The Southport Sharks Football Club Social Club has currently in excess of 50,000 members of varying types. Let's say a fifth of these become members of varying classes of the new Southport Saints. That's 10,000 members.
2. St Kilda football club members. Again based on the South Melbourne and Fitzroy experience about a fifth to a quarter of existing would probably become members. I'm not exactly sure how many members St Kilda have at the moment. Probably somewhere between 20,000-25,000. Let's assume 20,000 and 4,000 St Kilda members become members of the Southport Saints. The Brisbane Lions have just over 3,000 Vic members and the Sydney Swans just under 6,000, so 4,000 is a realistic number, especially at the start. That's just members.... the support for the fictional Southport Saints in Victoria would in reality be much greater, just like that of Sydney and the Brisbane Lions. Many ex South and ex-Fitzroy people follow both clubs and aren't members.
3. It's also conceivable that another 3,000-5,000 members will join in Queensland. Many Queensland Aust. Rules followers support the Brisbane Lions by default and some would switch to supporting Southport should it enter the AFL. Actually I'm not sure why I am arguing this, as the entry of a Southport side would initially have a negative effect on the club I support!
17-18,000 members in it's first year is a realistic target for a Southport side in the AFL. Sure it would be the lowest in the league for a while and the AFL would have to underwrite membership for the club for the first few years until the club became established. Those who support or barrack for the club would probably be much higher and depending on how the relocation is handled (hopefully better than Sydney's was) membership could be higher.
By the way I am not arguing that St Kilda is the club that could or should relocate. I'm just using them as an example. Hopefully my second-favorite club will remain in Victoria for many a long year.
For argument's sake let's take St Kilda and imagine they are the relocated team. They become the Southport Saints playing in St Kilda colours, retaining much of St. Kilda's history, traditions and records in much the same manner as South Melbourne/Sydney. Out of all the interstate clubs you would probably agree Dan that Sydney has the highest Victorian support.
Making a couple of logical projections, based on what has happened to South Melbourne supporters re Sydney and Fitzroy supporters re Brisbane Lions, I would expect support for the Southport Saints to come from the following areas.
1. The Southport Sharks Football Club Social Club has currently in excess of 50,000 members of varying types. Let's say a fifth of these become members of varying classes of the new Southport Saints. That's 10,000 members.
2. St Kilda football club members. Again based on the South Melbourne and Fitzroy experience about a fifth to a quarter of existing would probably become members. I'm not exactly sure how many members St Kilda have at the moment. Probably somewhere between 20,000-25,000. Let's assume 20,000 and 4,000 St Kilda members become members of the Southport Saints. The Brisbane Lions have just over 3,000 Vic members and the Sydney Swans just under 6,000, so 4,000 is a realistic number, especially at the start. That's just members.... the support for the fictional Southport Saints in Victoria would in reality be much greater, just like that of Sydney and the Brisbane Lions. Many ex South and ex-Fitzroy people follow both clubs and aren't members.
3. It's also conceivable that another 3,000-5,000 members will join in Queensland. Many Queensland Aust. Rules followers support the Brisbane Lions by default and some would switch to supporting Southport should it enter the AFL. Actually I'm not sure why I am arguing this, as the entry of a Southport side would initially have a negative effect on the club I support!
17-18,000 members in it's first year is a realistic target for a Southport side in the AFL. Sure it would be the lowest in the league for a while and the AFL would have to underwrite membership for the club for the first few years until the club became established. Those who support or barrack for the club would probably be much higher and depending on how the relocation is handled (hopefully better than Sydney's was) membership could be higher.
By the way I am not arguing that St Kilda is the club that could or should relocate. I'm just using them as an example. Hopefully my second-favorite club will remain in Victoria for many a long year.
My thoughts exactly.
- Banned
- #12
No Doubt that club will be Southport to gain entry into the Afl and I think they will be in this comp in less then 5 years.
Im not going to say much about this as I would just be repeating Roylion on the subject.
With Southport posibly playing home games at both The Gabba and down on the Gold Coast (Carrara Maybe) I see a huge support following for the Southport Football Club with the current 50,000 members it has at the moment already.
Southport success rate at the moment is also very strong, with 4 straight flags in a row since 1997 and going onto there 5 this season (which should happen). They are a powerhouse in the Queensland market.
Mags
Im not going to say much about this as I would just be repeating Roylion on the subject.
With Southport posibly playing home games at both The Gabba and down on the Gold Coast (Carrara Maybe) I see a huge support following for the Southport Football Club with the current 50,000 members it has at the moment already.
Southport success rate at the moment is also very strong, with 4 straight flags in a row since 1997 and going onto there 5 this season (which should happen). They are a powerhouse in the Queensland market.
Mags
That would be the BEST thing for AFL in QLD!!!! That would be so awesome having 2 teams to barrack for....
What about a team in Tassie?? I think that will happen too, maybe not for the reason that they'd be competative, but also for political reasons.
My reallies in Tassie said that the AFL was willing to add them to the comp if there was another club ready to join.
I can also se freo and the saints being part of a merger to develop these clubs
What about a team in Tassie?? I think that will happen too, maybe not for the reason that they'd be competative, but also for political reasons.
My reallies in Tassie said that the AFL was willing to add them to the comp if there was another club ready to join.
I can also se freo and the saints being part of a merger to develop these clubs
Dont get too carried away with the support that Southport has. I used to play at Southport, and while they are a very financialy secure club at AFLQ level, its a different story in the AFL.
They have around 50,000 members - but thats due to probably two main reasons.
One - you must be a member to enter their social club, which offers pretty good/cheap meals, has heaps of pokies (nearly a mini-casino) and is probably the best economic social spot in its area.
Two - membership when I was there was ONE dollar - I think now its doubled to TWO dollars!! (per year)
They would get a fair bit of support from the Gold Coast tho, as Aussie Rules is suprisingly popular there. (I think bigger than the rugby codes). However the Gold Coast hasnt the population of a big city, but there are heaps of ex- melbournians and if they can play their games on the coast, I reckon a few would go and have a look.
However, at the same time when the bears played at carrara they couldnt pull a crowd to save themselves!
They have around 50,000 members - but thats due to probably two main reasons.
One - you must be a member to enter their social club, which offers pretty good/cheap meals, has heaps of pokies (nearly a mini-casino) and is probably the best economic social spot in its area.
Two - membership when I was there was ONE dollar - I think now its doubled to TWO dollars!! (per year)
They would get a fair bit of support from the Gold Coast tho, as Aussie Rules is suprisingly popular there. (I think bigger than the rugby codes). However the Gold Coast hasnt the population of a big city, but there are heaps of ex- melbournians and if they can play their games on the coast, I reckon a few would go and have a look.
However, at the same time when the bears played at carrara they couldnt pull a crowd to save themselves!
Roylion,
I am very sceptical about what you have just presented.
If St.Kilda hypotheticaly relocted, they would retain their Melbourne support (just as South Melbourne did), but it is the Queensland support that is questionable.
My Dad is a member of the Penrith Panthers Rugby League, Leagues club. Not the actual "team'" itself, but the leagues club that has over 100,000 members. The actual Penrith fooball team only has about 4,000 actual "members" who buy a membership for the right to attend games. Southport is similar. 50,000 members you reckon? That's truem but thise figueres are irrelevant when predicting the potential crowds at games. I don't want to sound pessimistic, but most of those members couldn't give a fat rats clacker about footy. They are there to use the facilities at the leagues club, such as pokies, etc.
I don't think they would have a snowflakes chance in hell of converting 10,000 of their 50,000 members to be football club members. No chance. The Brisbane Lions are Queenslands team. Most of those 50,000 memebrs of Southport would suport the Brisbane Lions anyway. After all, the Lions are the only locla AFL team.
If the Penrith Panthers can only get about 4,000 football club members, yet they have a leagues club membership of 100,000 it just shows how futile it is, to expect Southport to draw any people to games in the AFL.
Personally, I think they would struggle to get more than 6,000 people to a game if they were in the AFL. How many people watch them in the local league?
I am very sceptical about what you have just presented.
If St.Kilda hypotheticaly relocted, they would retain their Melbourne support (just as South Melbourne did), but it is the Queensland support that is questionable.
My Dad is a member of the Penrith Panthers Rugby League, Leagues club. Not the actual "team'" itself, but the leagues club that has over 100,000 members. The actual Penrith fooball team only has about 4,000 actual "members" who buy a membership for the right to attend games. Southport is similar. 50,000 members you reckon? That's truem but thise figueres are irrelevant when predicting the potential crowds at games. I don't want to sound pessimistic, but most of those members couldn't give a fat rats clacker about footy. They are there to use the facilities at the leagues club, such as pokies, etc.
I don't think they would have a snowflakes chance in hell of converting 10,000 of their 50,000 members to be football club members. No chance. The Brisbane Lions are Queenslands team. Most of those 50,000 memebrs of Southport would suport the Brisbane Lions anyway. After all, the Lions are the only locla AFL team.
If the Penrith Panthers can only get about 4,000 football club members, yet they have a leagues club membership of 100,000 it just shows how futile it is, to expect Southport to draw any people to games in the AFL.
Personally, I think they would struggle to get more than 6,000 people to a game if they were in the AFL. How many people watch them in the local league?
Bite yer tongue, Joshy! A man can't serve two masters!
- Moderator
- #17
Dan, I disagree with your last post for a few reasons.
To take each of your points in turn. Southport AFC is not a League's club. It exists solely for the benefit of the Southport Sharks FC. Of course it's 53,000 members would not translate into the same amount of members for an AFL club or indeed even half that. A fifth is more realistic. The Southport AFC Social Club is the 4th largest sporting club (with pokies) of it's kind in Queensland and already easily outranks the Brisbane Lions in the breadth of its social activities and revenue. The club is also located in the centre of the financial and medical centre of the Gold Coast, which (along with Brisbane) is the fastest growing urban area in Australia. It has a 50 year lease and will be located there until at least 2050. It also has plans to increase it's social club membership to over 100,000 members by 2005.
Now if you think that is unrealistic and I'm clutching at straws, the Bureau of Statistics’ 1999 publication suggests that at the if the current 2.3% population growth rate of Brisbane (about 35,000 extra people per year) is maintained, Brisbane will have 2.5 million people by 2025 and by 2050 about 3.3 million people (the same as Melbourne’s current population.) The Gold Coast-Tweed area had 367,000 people in 1997. If their annual current growth rate of approximately 5% (about 18,500 people extra a year) is maintained, by 2025 they will have 880,000 people and by 2050 about 1.3 million people. Even if it slows to 2.5% that will mean approximately 650,000 people. Melbourne’s annual growth rate of approximately 0.2% means that their population which increases by about 6,500 people a year and will be about 3.5 million people by 2025 and 3.6 million people by 2050. The Brisbane/Gold Coast area will be larger in terms of population than Melbourne sometime in the 2040’s and will have about 600,000 people more by 2050. The AFL's July 1999 paper on the structure of the AFL competition seems to suggest that a population base of 500,000 would be needed to support any future entrant to the AFL competition. A Gold Coast club playing out of Brisbane would seem to be viable given that out of all the regions in Queensland the Gold Coast has a strong Australian Rules following, even more than metropolitan Brisbane. It is a completely different situation to what happened when the Bears were established in 1987. A club relocating to Southport in five to ten years would in my view have enough support (both in terms of supporters and financial backers) to be viable. Even the Brisbane Lions have stated this.
Based on the above figures and information I disagree that they would have 'a snowflakes chance in hell of converting 10,000 of their 50,000 members to be football club members'. The Brisbane Lions are Brisbane's team..not necessarily Queensland's. I know personally many Queenslanders (some ex-Victorians) who follow Australian Rules and the AFL competition, but do not support the Lions at all, even as their second side. This is only anecdotal evidence of course, but is evidence which keeps cropping up whenever I go to Queensland to attend matches at the Gabba which is reasonably often. The establishment of another AFL local side would give south-eastern Queenslanders another option and many would swap over to the new side. That's just the point! There would be two local teams that people could support. How many people in SA and WA stopped following West Coast and Adelaide at an AFL level when Port Adelaide and Fremantle entered the competition and swapped over?
And to your last point about how few people follow them in the local league. Yes, to my knowledge there are fewer people at Southport games than AFL games at the Gabba obviously. Then again how many people follow the VFL compared to the AFL? What sort of crowds are Essendon FC (the greatest club in Australia so I read) drawing in the VFL compared to the AFL? What sort of crowds do Port Adelaide draw in the SANFL compared to the AFL? More people would go along and watch elite footballers in the best competition in the land, rather than a secondary state-based league that the QAFL is anyway. Or even the VFL. Also I would expect that many people who are Gabba members would go along to watch top-level elite football every week at the Gabba if it was on. If there were two local AFL sides, 22-24 Gabba games a year would be played (11 Brisbane Lions games, 10 Southport Games and a Melbourne home game, plus any finals) The AFL would have continual exposure on TV, better opportinity to showcase the game live to the Queensland public therefore attracting more members, supporters, followers, onlookers, theatre-goers, sponsors etc etc.
Southport FC President Alan McKenzie stated the following in July 2000.
"We were a simple suburban football club, like many others for many years, but as the Gold Coast and the popularity of Australian football grew here, so did we, and our successes dictated we expanded our horizons. With this in mind, we are steadily building our complex and business to ensure that it's suitable for a full AFL organisation."
Dan, only time will tell who is right and who is wrong. From the information I have been privy to, that which is in the public domain and the evidence from my own eyes and ears, its my view Southport will have a team in the AFL probably by 2010 and it will be a team that can and will be relatively well supported in Queensland.
To take each of your points in turn. Southport AFC is not a League's club. It exists solely for the benefit of the Southport Sharks FC. Of course it's 53,000 members would not translate into the same amount of members for an AFL club or indeed even half that. A fifth is more realistic. The Southport AFC Social Club is the 4th largest sporting club (with pokies) of it's kind in Queensland and already easily outranks the Brisbane Lions in the breadth of its social activities and revenue. The club is also located in the centre of the financial and medical centre of the Gold Coast, which (along with Brisbane) is the fastest growing urban area in Australia. It has a 50 year lease and will be located there until at least 2050. It also has plans to increase it's social club membership to over 100,000 members by 2005.
Now if you think that is unrealistic and I'm clutching at straws, the Bureau of Statistics’ 1999 publication suggests that at the if the current 2.3% population growth rate of Brisbane (about 35,000 extra people per year) is maintained, Brisbane will have 2.5 million people by 2025 and by 2050 about 3.3 million people (the same as Melbourne’s current population.) The Gold Coast-Tweed area had 367,000 people in 1997. If their annual current growth rate of approximately 5% (about 18,500 people extra a year) is maintained, by 2025 they will have 880,000 people and by 2050 about 1.3 million people. Even if it slows to 2.5% that will mean approximately 650,000 people. Melbourne’s annual growth rate of approximately 0.2% means that their population which increases by about 6,500 people a year and will be about 3.5 million people by 2025 and 3.6 million people by 2050. The Brisbane/Gold Coast area will be larger in terms of population than Melbourne sometime in the 2040’s and will have about 600,000 people more by 2050. The AFL's July 1999 paper on the structure of the AFL competition seems to suggest that a population base of 500,000 would be needed to support any future entrant to the AFL competition. A Gold Coast club playing out of Brisbane would seem to be viable given that out of all the regions in Queensland the Gold Coast has a strong Australian Rules following, even more than metropolitan Brisbane. It is a completely different situation to what happened when the Bears were established in 1987. A club relocating to Southport in five to ten years would in my view have enough support (both in terms of supporters and financial backers) to be viable. Even the Brisbane Lions have stated this.
Based on the above figures and information I disagree that they would have 'a snowflakes chance in hell of converting 10,000 of their 50,000 members to be football club members'. The Brisbane Lions are Brisbane's team..not necessarily Queensland's. I know personally many Queenslanders (some ex-Victorians) who follow Australian Rules and the AFL competition, but do not support the Lions at all, even as their second side. This is only anecdotal evidence of course, but is evidence which keeps cropping up whenever I go to Queensland to attend matches at the Gabba which is reasonably often. The establishment of another AFL local side would give south-eastern Queenslanders another option and many would swap over to the new side. That's just the point! There would be two local teams that people could support. How many people in SA and WA stopped following West Coast and Adelaide at an AFL level when Port Adelaide and Fremantle entered the competition and swapped over?
And to your last point about how few people follow them in the local league. Yes, to my knowledge there are fewer people at Southport games than AFL games at the Gabba obviously. Then again how many people follow the VFL compared to the AFL? What sort of crowds are Essendon FC (the greatest club in Australia so I read) drawing in the VFL compared to the AFL? What sort of crowds do Port Adelaide draw in the SANFL compared to the AFL? More people would go along and watch elite footballers in the best competition in the land, rather than a secondary state-based league that the QAFL is anyway. Or even the VFL. Also I would expect that many people who are Gabba members would go along to watch top-level elite football every week at the Gabba if it was on. If there were two local AFL sides, 22-24 Gabba games a year would be played (11 Brisbane Lions games, 10 Southport Games and a Melbourne home game, plus any finals) The AFL would have continual exposure on TV, better opportinity to showcase the game live to the Queensland public therefore attracting more members, supporters, followers, onlookers, theatre-goers, sponsors etc etc.
Southport FC President Alan McKenzie stated the following in July 2000.
"We were a simple suburban football club, like many others for many years, but as the Gold Coast and the popularity of Australian football grew here, so did we, and our successes dictated we expanded our horizons. With this in mind, we are steadily building our complex and business to ensure that it's suitable for a full AFL organisation."
Dan, only time will tell who is right and who is wrong. From the information I have been privy to, that which is in the public domain and the evidence from my own eyes and ears, its my view Southport will have a team in the AFL probably by 2010 and it will be a team that can and will be relatively well supported in Queensland.
- Dec 5, 2000
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Not so pedantic about spelling I see. (Grammer?)
Roylion....
If you look at the struggling teams in Victoria, most have approximately 250,000 supporters, average attendance figures nudging 30,000, and have memberships hovering around the 20,000 mark.
... but the most important thing to note is that, despite these strong fundamentals (which would prove sufficient in almost any major league in the world), we are still struggling.
So, even in a best case scenario, how will Southport travel with figures not even close to those? Could they match them, in 5 years, 10 years, hell, even 20 years time? I doubt it. But if they can somehow manage to get 30,000 people attending week in, week out, is it worth propping them up to the tune of millions of dollars for that many years until they do so? Especially when considering that the support bases of the established clubs in Melbourne are also continually growing, from a base of 30,000 in average attendances, I don't think it's the way to go.
Granted, the population figures you provided in regards to the Gold Coast have a lot of merit, Roylion, but that wont automatically translate into attendances or support, and a successful club off the field. Sydney has a population larger than Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, yet have taken 20 years to harness enough support for the Swans - with the same relocation situation which you are proposing for Southport.
In terms of population and available market, you could mount much the same case for the Western Suburbs of Sydney, as you have for Southport, but frankly, in my (and probably the AFL's) opinion, the demand is just not there.
Just like the Melbourne Storm generally represents Victoria as a whole in the NRL, Brisbane is the STATE'S team in Queensland for AFL football. They also have 600,000 supporters (RM Poll), but despite these facts, are still struggling on the membership front, and have average crowd figures which are less than most of the struggling Victorian sides. Secondly, would you admit that Southport will always play second fiddle to Brisbane? If so, how can two teams survive in a market which isn't even supporting one convincingly?
The fact that it is a team from Melbourne relocating to Southport is irrelevant in terms of average attendances. Even if a quarter of the Western Bulldogs/ North Melbourne / St Kilda membership bases purchased memberships, it isn't going to translate into attendances at the Gabba -- which means that realistically, even if your figures (1/5) for current Southport fans attended, they could be looking at crowds as low as 10,000.
Smokin's post brang up a point that we are ignoring. TWO DOLLAR memberships (confirm?). Firstly, that equates to $100,000 - chickenfeed in today's AFL environment with $20,000,000 turnovers. Secondly, will the current members be prepared to pay $100-150 ? Although it appears realistic on paper, I think that expecting one fifth of them to do that is a little optimistic. If Victorian teams had $1-2 memberships, giving us free entry to games, allowing us to use start of the art gambling facilities, cheaper meals etc, how many members would we get? Easily over 100,000 in my opinion. Geeze, I would buy one hundred of them.
Your reasoning for Southport's poor attendances at Queensland league level also brang up an interesting point. You likened it to attendances at games at VFL, SANFL level etc. How would Frankston's support improve if they were to be accepted into the AFL? Two fold? Three fold? Not exactly convincing. Another team from Adelaide such as Norwood would also struggle, and that's a footballing state, with the game/team having been a part of their culture for over 100 years. Even Port Adelaide, one of the most traditional, successful and powerful clubs in Australia, hasn't brought the house down at AFL level (compared to Adelaide) ...... and that's with high attendences at SANFL level before they entered the comp.... something Southport doesn't have. Even Freo, once again a second team in FOOTBALL state, isn't harnessing as much support as what was envisaged. What chance is Southport? Finally, you compared it to Essendon reserves in the VFL. What if Essendon, the AFL team, dropped down to the VFL. What crowds would they get then? I would imagine 20-25,000 at least (ditto Richmond, Collingwood) if the facilities allowed it -- 10-15 times what Southport are getting to games at the same level - a secondary league.
One fact which seems to have been lost in this discussion is that, Southport are going to be playing at the Gabba. Wouldn't most supporters from the Gold Coast, who could be bothered travelling to the Gabba to watch football, be already supporting the Lions? If they are, and choose to 'switch' allegiances, what effect will that have on Brisbane's already low membership and support? Isn't the whole point of having a Southport team having a club which represents a different part of Queensland? Once again, I'll use Freo - they're playing out of Subiaco, and this stops a lot of Freo supporters from attending as can be seen from their average of just over 20,000 for home games. It will be the same for Southport if they're playing at the Gabba.
Let's not forget the logistics of it all, either. Players? What about the 'traitor' factor, which Matthews mentioned earlier in the year in regards to Obree, Voss etc. Brisbane is trying to get a team with more Brisbane players to overcome this, so, how will two teams contend with it? The drain would be enormous. Will they poach Brisbane players? The Lions already have a higher salary cap in place to help them lure more players, how would something like that impact on Southport financially?
Success? We've seen how Freo has struggled early, there wont be priority draft picks as it will be a relocation .... some players will be dead against moving there ... so where is it going to come from? What damage will a team which is getting flogged week in week out have on the fans and the culture of the club long term?
Roylion, I have the upmost respect for your opinions, but in this case, I just don't think that a second team out of Queensland can be justified. If I can ask you a question -- You sound as if this (team relocating to Southport) is something that you would love to see - Why? Just for the sake of a national competition?
If you look at the struggling teams in Victoria, most have approximately 250,000 supporters, average attendance figures nudging 30,000, and have memberships hovering around the 20,000 mark.
... but the most important thing to note is that, despite these strong fundamentals (which would prove sufficient in almost any major league in the world), we are still struggling.
So, even in a best case scenario, how will Southport travel with figures not even close to those? Could they match them, in 5 years, 10 years, hell, even 20 years time? I doubt it. But if they can somehow manage to get 30,000 people attending week in, week out, is it worth propping them up to the tune of millions of dollars for that many years until they do so? Especially when considering that the support bases of the established clubs in Melbourne are also continually growing, from a base of 30,000 in average attendances, I don't think it's the way to go.
Granted, the population figures you provided in regards to the Gold Coast have a lot of merit, Roylion, but that wont automatically translate into attendances or support, and a successful club off the field. Sydney has a population larger than Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, yet have taken 20 years to harness enough support for the Swans - with the same relocation situation which you are proposing for Southport.
In terms of population and available market, you could mount much the same case for the Western Suburbs of Sydney, as you have for Southport, but frankly, in my (and probably the AFL's) opinion, the demand is just not there.
Just like the Melbourne Storm generally represents Victoria as a whole in the NRL, Brisbane is the STATE'S team in Queensland for AFL football. They also have 600,000 supporters (RM Poll), but despite these facts, are still struggling on the membership front, and have average crowd figures which are less than most of the struggling Victorian sides. Secondly, would you admit that Southport will always play second fiddle to Brisbane? If so, how can two teams survive in a market which isn't even supporting one convincingly?
The fact that it is a team from Melbourne relocating to Southport is irrelevant in terms of average attendances. Even if a quarter of the Western Bulldogs/ North Melbourne / St Kilda membership bases purchased memberships, it isn't going to translate into attendances at the Gabba -- which means that realistically, even if your figures (1/5) for current Southport fans attended, they could be looking at crowds as low as 10,000.
Smokin's post brang up a point that we are ignoring. TWO DOLLAR memberships (confirm?). Firstly, that equates to $100,000 - chickenfeed in today's AFL environment with $20,000,000 turnovers. Secondly, will the current members be prepared to pay $100-150 ? Although it appears realistic on paper, I think that expecting one fifth of them to do that is a little optimistic. If Victorian teams had $1-2 memberships, giving us free entry to games, allowing us to use start of the art gambling facilities, cheaper meals etc, how many members would we get? Easily over 100,000 in my opinion. Geeze, I would buy one hundred of them.
Your reasoning for Southport's poor attendances at Queensland league level also brang up an interesting point. You likened it to attendances at games at VFL, SANFL level etc. How would Frankston's support improve if they were to be accepted into the AFL? Two fold? Three fold? Not exactly convincing. Another team from Adelaide such as Norwood would also struggle, and that's a footballing state, with the game/team having been a part of their culture for over 100 years. Even Port Adelaide, one of the most traditional, successful and powerful clubs in Australia, hasn't brought the house down at AFL level (compared to Adelaide) ...... and that's with high attendences at SANFL level before they entered the comp.... something Southport doesn't have. Even Freo, once again a second team in FOOTBALL state, isn't harnessing as much support as what was envisaged. What chance is Southport? Finally, you compared it to Essendon reserves in the VFL. What if Essendon, the AFL team, dropped down to the VFL. What crowds would they get then? I would imagine 20-25,000 at least (ditto Richmond, Collingwood) if the facilities allowed it -- 10-15 times what Southport are getting to games at the same level - a secondary league.
One fact which seems to have been lost in this discussion is that, Southport are going to be playing at the Gabba. Wouldn't most supporters from the Gold Coast, who could be bothered travelling to the Gabba to watch football, be already supporting the Lions? If they are, and choose to 'switch' allegiances, what effect will that have on Brisbane's already low membership and support? Isn't the whole point of having a Southport team having a club which represents a different part of Queensland? Once again, I'll use Freo - they're playing out of Subiaco, and this stops a lot of Freo supporters from attending as can be seen from their average of just over 20,000 for home games. It will be the same for Southport if they're playing at the Gabba.
Let's not forget the logistics of it all, either. Players? What about the 'traitor' factor, which Matthews mentioned earlier in the year in regards to Obree, Voss etc. Brisbane is trying to get a team with more Brisbane players to overcome this, so, how will two teams contend with it? The drain would be enormous. Will they poach Brisbane players? The Lions already have a higher salary cap in place to help them lure more players, how would something like that impact on Southport financially?
Success? We've seen how Freo has struggled early, there wont be priority draft picks as it will be a relocation .... some players will be dead against moving there ... so where is it going to come from? What damage will a team which is getting flogged week in week out have on the fans and the culture of the club long term?
Roylion, I have the upmost respect for your opinions, but in this case, I just don't think that a second team out of Queensland can be justified. If I can ask you a question -- You sound as if this (team relocating to Southport) is something that you would love to see - Why? Just for the sake of a national competition?
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Roylion,
Westy Boy has pretty much summed up what I'd lke to say. The population statistics you have presented don't really give an accurate refelction (in my view) of how many people are likely to watch Southport on a week-to-week basis. You seem to insinuate that because the population is growing rapidly, there should be enough support for a second team. If that's the case, why not put a second basketball team in too? Or a soccer team (now that their isn't one). You say that the Lions are Brisbane's team, not Queenslands. Well, you'd know more than me, but I reckon if you asked people, around the Gold Coast which AFL team they support, the answer would be "Brisbane."
Port Adelaide was already an established club in an Australian Fotball stronghold. It was clear that they could feild a team. Southport is not an Australian Football, stronghold, and I have grave concerns whether their supporter base would be even one-tenth as passionate and willing to attend games as, say, Port Power. I have no doubt that Southport have the existing infrastructure, but whether they could draw anyone to their games is highly questionable.
Remember, the Brisbane Lions are more-or-less drawing on the entire population of southern Queensland for their support, which translates into 25-30,000 per game at the Gabba. How could Southport possibly get anywhere near that, when Brisbane are currenty drawing on the entire south-eastern segment of the state all by themselves?
I think you are being very optimistic. Very.
Westy Boy has pretty much summed up what I'd lke to say. The population statistics you have presented don't really give an accurate refelction (in my view) of how many people are likely to watch Southport on a week-to-week basis. You seem to insinuate that because the population is growing rapidly, there should be enough support for a second team. If that's the case, why not put a second basketball team in too? Or a soccer team (now that their isn't one). You say that the Lions are Brisbane's team, not Queenslands. Well, you'd know more than me, but I reckon if you asked people, around the Gold Coast which AFL team they support, the answer would be "Brisbane."
Port Adelaide was already an established club in an Australian Fotball stronghold. It was clear that they could feild a team. Southport is not an Australian Football, stronghold, and I have grave concerns whether their supporter base would be even one-tenth as passionate and willing to attend games as, say, Port Power. I have no doubt that Southport have the existing infrastructure, but whether they could draw anyone to their games is highly questionable.
Remember, the Brisbane Lions are more-or-less drawing on the entire population of southern Queensland for their support, which translates into 25-30,000 per game at the Gabba. How could Southport possibly get anywhere near that, when Brisbane are currenty drawing on the entire south-eastern segment of the state all by themselves?
I think you are being very optimistic. Very.
T
topdon
Guest
Originally posted by Carey_is_King
Not so pedantic about spelling I see. (Grammer?)
Whoopsie!! Egg (or should that be pie?) on face!
There is no way that QLD is ready for a second team. Im thinking - the Brisbane-Gold Coast region couldnt support two rugby league teams, let alone two AFL clubs! And it rugby not getting a crowd is normal.
The thing is, spectator sport in general isnt all that popular in Brisbane. On weekends in Vic, SA, WA etc most people go down watch a local or AFL game at least once on Sat/Sun, there is high interest in both leagues (a local and the big one) and thats the lifestyle - passion!
Having played up in Qld for a couple years, I can tell you people havnt got the same passion for sports. People up there prefer going to the beach (they have the climate), the park for a BBQ, swimming, on a boat blah blah. The lifestyle is definitely different. I mean, the Soccer Australia got rid of the only club there!
Also, having lived on the Coast, knowing heaps of ex Southerners (for some reason we all stuck together), the Gabba and the Lions doesnt represent footy for them. I am a huge footy fan, and before going to QLD attended probably 2 games on average a weekend, while also playing. (Had a great system - when they used to clip the AFL membership cards every game, had a friend who worked for the AFL and was able to get a new card half way thru the seasons!). Saying that, in 3 years I probably attended (not included games I played as curtain raiser) about 5-6 games at the Gabba. I knew heaps of Vic who also didnt go that often for the same reason - its just not footy! The crowd has no real passion, are not educated (some clowns think they are, but wouldnt know a drop punt from a push in the back), and it feels like a fake atmosphere. It was depressing thinking that footy had turned to this - but back in Melbourne it feels fantastic again!! Lions are the only AFL club up there and their crowds are nothing fanatastic!
One AFL, one League, a basketball team is probably all that that joint can handle I reckon.
The thing is, spectator sport in general isnt all that popular in Brisbane. On weekends in Vic, SA, WA etc most people go down watch a local or AFL game at least once on Sat/Sun, there is high interest in both leagues (a local and the big one) and thats the lifestyle - passion!
Having played up in Qld for a couple years, I can tell you people havnt got the same passion for sports. People up there prefer going to the beach (they have the climate), the park for a BBQ, swimming, on a boat blah blah. The lifestyle is definitely different. I mean, the Soccer Australia got rid of the only club there!
Also, having lived on the Coast, knowing heaps of ex Southerners (for some reason we all stuck together), the Gabba and the Lions doesnt represent footy for them. I am a huge footy fan, and before going to QLD attended probably 2 games on average a weekend, while also playing. (Had a great system - when they used to clip the AFL membership cards every game, had a friend who worked for the AFL and was able to get a new card half way thru the seasons!). Saying that, in 3 years I probably attended (not included games I played as curtain raiser) about 5-6 games at the Gabba. I knew heaps of Vic who also didnt go that often for the same reason - its just not footy! The crowd has no real passion, are not educated (some clowns think they are, but wouldnt know a drop punt from a push in the back), and it feels like a fake atmosphere. It was depressing thinking that footy had turned to this - but back in Melbourne it feels fantastic again!! Lions are the only AFL club up there and their crowds are nothing fanatastic!
One AFL, one League, a basketball team is probably all that that joint can handle I reckon.
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- #23
I understand and agree to a certain extent with many of the points you are arguing. I certainly don't believe that Queensland is ready right NOW for a second AFL side and that's not what I am arguing. The Brisbane Lions are still in the process of carving out a niche for themselves in the south-east Queensland market and any entry of another Queensland side in the south-east within the next five years would have a significant effect on the club I support.
What I am arguing is that the next entry to the AFL (whenever that will be, (five.. ten.. twenty years) is likely to come from either south-eastern Queensland or Sydney. I'm also arguing that in my view if I had to make a choice between the two in the next decade it would probably be Southport because of their existing infrastructure (already paid for) and the fact that the Gold Coast does have a sizeable footballing population nucleus. Many people I speak to up in south-east Queensland are astounded at the growth in popularity of Australian Rules over the last five years, particularly in schools and there's no reason to think that will change in the near future. In those kids is vested the future of Australian Rules in Queensland.
As I've said before a second AFL side from Queensland is in the words of the AFL... 'desirable' given the sizeable population base that Brisbane will have within 40 years. Sooner or later it is going to happen. Southport believe it. The AFL believe it. In January this year the Southport Football club resubmitted their Application for an AFL license and have been given an indication by the AFL that approval is going to be granted in the not-so-distant future, if and when a team agrees to relocate there. This comes from the Southport club not the AFL by the way. Already earlier this year the St Kilda president has publicly mentioned Southport in asking St Kilda supporters to get behind the club. He stated we don’t want to end up as the 'Southport Saints'. I'm told that a few tentative feelers have been put out by Southport to three or four Victorian clubs already...who exactly I don't know.
Now IF (and I certainly hope this doesn't happen) a Victorian club sometime in the next ten years goes to the wall and has a choice between merger, relocation or extinction, Southport may look reasonably attractive as a prime relocation spot. And again the only reason I suggest Southport is because the preparations for a possible AFL entry are far ahead of any second side out of Sydney....which is also inevitable.
The only way I would imagine that Southport would come into the competition in the next ten years is through a relocation of a Victorian club, not a brand-new entry. My guess is if a club goes to the wall in the next five years the AFL will be very keen either to prop them up or relocate them, so a 16 team competition is maintained as per the requirements of the TV rights deal.
Whether they get enough support to run an AFL club semi-sucessfully is debatable. I certainly think a relocated club at Southport is every chance to get enough support especially ten-twenty years down the track. I can't prove it...I can only make a assumption/prediction based on what I know. People may disagree with me.. so be it. Time will tell who is ultimately correct.
What I am arguing is that the next entry to the AFL (whenever that will be, (five.. ten.. twenty years) is likely to come from either south-eastern Queensland or Sydney. I'm also arguing that in my view if I had to make a choice between the two in the next decade it would probably be Southport because of their existing infrastructure (already paid for) and the fact that the Gold Coast does have a sizeable footballing population nucleus. Many people I speak to up in south-east Queensland are astounded at the growth in popularity of Australian Rules over the last five years, particularly in schools and there's no reason to think that will change in the near future. In those kids is vested the future of Australian Rules in Queensland.
As I've said before a second AFL side from Queensland is in the words of the AFL... 'desirable' given the sizeable population base that Brisbane will have within 40 years. Sooner or later it is going to happen. Southport believe it. The AFL believe it. In January this year the Southport Football club resubmitted their Application for an AFL license and have been given an indication by the AFL that approval is going to be granted in the not-so-distant future, if and when a team agrees to relocate there. This comes from the Southport club not the AFL by the way. Already earlier this year the St Kilda president has publicly mentioned Southport in asking St Kilda supporters to get behind the club. He stated we don’t want to end up as the 'Southport Saints'. I'm told that a few tentative feelers have been put out by Southport to three or four Victorian clubs already...who exactly I don't know.
Now IF (and I certainly hope this doesn't happen) a Victorian club sometime in the next ten years goes to the wall and has a choice between merger, relocation or extinction, Southport may look reasonably attractive as a prime relocation spot. And again the only reason I suggest Southport is because the preparations for a possible AFL entry are far ahead of any second side out of Sydney....which is also inevitable.
The only way I would imagine that Southport would come into the competition in the next ten years is through a relocation of a Victorian club, not a brand-new entry. My guess is if a club goes to the wall in the next five years the AFL will be very keen either to prop them up or relocate them, so a 16 team competition is maintained as per the requirements of the TV rights deal.
Whether they get enough support to run an AFL club semi-sucessfully is debatable. I certainly think a relocated club at Southport is every chance to get enough support especially ten-twenty years down the track. I can't prove it...I can only make a assumption/prediction based on what I know. People may disagree with me.. so be it. Time will tell who is ultimately correct.
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