Who will be better in 2024? Geelong or Richmond

[BigVic]

Played in a Grand Final 4 years ago at the Gabba and missed finals together last year for the first time since 2006.

Richmond has a new coach and J Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin

9

Trent Cotchin

Age

34

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

5.2

5star

D

19.0

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.5

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

4.3

5star

CL

3.5

4star

D

16.6

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.0

3star

has retired; Dimma is gone and Geelong recently won a flag 2 years ago.

Who will be better this season? Personally I say Geelong, just and will be in the mix.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Geelong.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think probably Geelong. But both are being underrated based on most things going wrong last year. There's still enough quality in both sides to make finals if a few things go right.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I can see the Cats bouncing back into finals, but doubt Tigers will... but more due to new coach & system which likely take some time to gel.

 

[BigVic]

Cats can but Tigers need some time to get back to where they were from 2017-2022.

 

[And_ROOS]

Geelong have the quality to bounce into finals, it took some massive injury hits at the worst time, a difficult fixture and a lot of narrow losses and Geelong could still have made finals heading into the 2nd last game of the season.

Next season Geelong will have access to their home ground earlier in the season, in theory an easier fixture, and get a full preseason into their team.
So Geelong finishing anywhere in the 8 really won't be a surprise.

Richmond is a harder one to gauge, partially due to their list but also due to their new coach.
There have been 5 new coaches come into the league in recent years.
Nicks and Mitchell have been at clubs that bottomed out.
Nicks team has been climbing the ladder each year since he took over, but best finish is 10th. Most have them as a smokey for finals next year.
Mitchell cleaned out the Hawks list, they won only one less game in his 2nd season as coach then they did in his 1st but they finished much lower down the ladder and got a better draft pick. I don't think we see Hawks in finals for a few years.

Longmuir took over Freo, had them finish 12th, 11th then 5th and won a final before dropping to 14th this past season.

Lastly we have McRae and Kingsley.
McRae took over a poor but under performing Pies who finished 17th, but no one would have seen them getting to a PF and then a flag in his first two years.
Meanwhile Kingsley took over a very talented albeit player raided GWS who finished 16th and got them to a PF. I don't know anyone who would have seen that coming.

I could see Richmond doing what Longmuir did at Fremantle. Takes over, they sit just outside finals for a few seasons while Yze implements his gameplan and develops talent before they make finals in a year or two.

But as we have seen in this list, theres nothing that really is good to use as a predictor of future performance. I also wouldn't be surprised if Hardwick had checked out, and Richmond were severely under performing and Yze takes them to a top 6 spot. Its not like their list hasn't got talent plus getting Lynch back helps.

TL;dr I think Geelong will finish the season higher on the ladder than Richmond, but I wouldn't be surprised if Richmond make finals under a new coach.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Not sure. Richmond have been throwing games away they should have won the last 2 seasons. Against Geelong themselves in 2022, Gold Coast, Brisbane in that final. There were a couple more. Last year as well. Tige's could have been top 4 in 2022 and really fell to s**t last season.

I have no idea tbh. Footy's a funny game we've seen the Eagles, Richmond and Geelong fall to a heap very quickly and us Pies fell away in 2021 before coming back very strong.

Itf I had to pick I really would like to say nil-all draw. If one, then Cats by a whisker.

 

[stallon]

I think Geelong will perform better in the H&A season, mostly due to their home ground. All it would take for Geelong to drop to bottom 4 imo would be a few injuries to some of the older blokes who have been very resilient so far, but that doesnt always last, my club is the perfect example of this. West coast is an example of what could happen to Geelong this year if things go wrong.
Richmond have a stronger midfield, and if Lynch stays healthy they might jump a bit. From an outsider perspective I dont see a lot of upside on their list, aside from what the coach brings.

Probably Geelong better, but would not be surprised one bit if they were bottom 3 or 4

 

[Jeremias]

Geelong.

I have them missing finals but it’s not inconceivable to me that they force their way back in.

Richmond I think are a genuine bottom 4 chance; god help them if Lynch isn’t fit.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Geelong by the length of the Flemington Straight.

Richmond are legit wooden spoon contenders.

 

[Tandy]

Yeah Geelong

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geelong.

I have them missing finals but it’s not inconceivable to me that they force their way back in.

Richmond I think are a genuine bottom 4 chance; god help them if Lynch isn’t fit.

God must have rushed to our assistance last year then because Lynch wasn't fit and we didn't finish bottom 4.

 

[Jeremias]

God must have rushed to our assistance last year then because Lynch wasn't fit and we didn't finish bottom 4.

No, there were just 5 teams worse than Richmond. Not sure that's something to try and gloat about.

I expect all those teams to improve; not sure I can see the same improvement in Richmond.

Won't finish last, but really good chance of ending up in that bottom 4 IMO.

 

[BigVic]

Yze will be interesting to watch

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No, there were just 5 teams worse than Richmond. Not sure that's something to try and gloat about.

I expect all those teams to improve; not sure I can see the same improvement in Richmond.

Won't finish last, but really good chance of ending up in that bottom 4 IMO.

A lot of teams are a chance to finish bottom 4 if things go wrong.

Some teams won't finish bottom 4 unless things go wrong. Richmond is one of them.

 

[Jeremias]

A lot of teams are a chance to finish bottom 4 if things go wrong.

Well yes. If you want to use semantics to overpower logic, I guess if Collingwood lose 10-15 regulars they’re a bottom 4 chance too.

Some teams won't finish bottom 4 unless things go wrong. Richmond is one of them.

I admire the blind confidence that comes with supporting a team.

I’ve been there plenty of times over the past few decades.

Richmond are a bottom 4 chance in 2024 if Lynch stays fit. If he doesn’t, they’re a near certainty.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Well yes. If you want to use semantics to overpower logic, I guess if Collingwood lose 10-15 regulars they’re a bottom 4 chance too.



I admire the blind confidence that comes with supporting a team.

I’ve been there plenty of times over the past few decades.

Richmond are a bottom 4 chance in 2024 if Lynch stays fit. If he doesn’t, they’re a near certainty.

Well Gold Coast finished 15th last year with 9 wins and 92%, so I suppose that brings a lot of teams into play. It would have taken 9 wins and 95% to climb out of the bottom 4.

Previous years to get out of this dreaded bottom 4 you speak about, you needed:

2022 - 8 wins and 87%
2021 - 7 wins and 82%
2020 - not comparable season
2019 - 8 wins and 98%
2018 - 5 wins and 90%
2017 - 6 wins and 88%
2016 - 6 win and 79%
2015 - 6 wins and 75%
2014 - 7 win and 70%
2013 - 8 wins and 86%
2012 - 5 wins and 68%
2011 - 7 wins and 83%
2010 - 7 wins and 83% *Richmond's last visit to the much feared bottom 4.

So there is quite a lot of variance in the amount of wins and percentage needed to avoid the horror of finishing "bottom 4." It is actually 14 years since Richmond have achieved the feat, so I had forgotten it was still possible. Hey, hang on, you are a Carlton Blues Football Club supporter aren't you? You might be able to enlighten us as to what it feels like when your team sinks to the horrendous depths of "bottom 4." Carlton managed it in the following seasons....

2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019

I owe you an apology here I should have paid you more respect on this matter. You clearly know what it takes to be a supporter of a bottom 4 team.

As "bottom 4" is an ever shifting benchmark though, how about you just simply predict the amount of wins you think Richmond will have in 2024...

 

[Jeremias]

Well Gold Coast finished 15th last year with 9 wins and 92%, so I suppose that brings a lot of teams into play. It would have taken 9 wins and 95% to climb out of the bottom 4.

A lot of teams, yet it is somehow unfathomable to you that your beloved Tigers fall into that range in 2024.

Go figure.

Previous years to get out of this dreaded bottom 4 you speak about, you needed:

2022 - 8 wins and 87%
2021 - 7 wins and 82%
2020 - not comparable season
2019 - 8 wins and 98%
2018 - 5 wins and 90%
2017 - 6 wins and 88%
2016 - 6 win and 79%
2015 - 6 wins and 75%
2014 - 7 win and 70%
2013 - 8 wins and 86%
2012 - 5 wins and 68%
2011 - 7 wins and 83%
2010 - 7 wins and 83% *Richmond's last visit to the much feared bottom 4.

Good research. And thank you for solidifying my thoughts that there's a decent chance Richmond finish bottom 4 in 2024.

So there is quite a lot of variance in the amount of wins and percentage needed to avoid the horror of finishing "bottom 4." It is actually 14 years since Richmond have achieved the feat, so I had forgotten it was still possible. Hey, hang on, you are a Carlton Blues Football Club supporter aren't you? You might be able to enlighten us as to what it feels like when your team sinks to the horrendous depths of "bottom 4." Carlton managed it in the following seasons....

2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019

Ah yes, the old 'I don't like someone's opinion so let's have a go at their club instead, even though it's of exactly 0 relevance to the discussion'.

The classic BigFooty defence.

I owe you an apology here I should have paid you more respect on this matter. You clearly know what it takes to be a supporter of a bottom 4 team.

I mean, as do you, unless you were born in the early 2010s. Which might explain this little outburst, I guess.

As "bottom 4" is an ever shifting benchmark though, how about you just simply predict the amount of wins you think Richmond will have in 2024...

As per the thread topic, fewer than Geelong. I'm really sorry that upsets you so much.

 

[juss]

No idea what we'll get from the Tigers, new coaches can come in and have instant positive change or can take a while to build.

I have Richmond's range as about 7th-12 and I think Geelong's is about 8th-10th.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Geelong have much better youth but Richmond still have a few solid players from their triple premiership side especially defenders such as grimes vlastuin rioli then tartanto hopper who are ok mids.

I feel like Richmond will be hovering around 9th-12th for a couple of seasons while these players are still around before a big decline and rebuild.

 

[JustaBattler]

Both have got too much class to finish bottom 4 unless the Richmond new coach doesn't click for them. I would back Geelong to win more games than Richmond only because of the Home ground thingy

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I mean, as do you, unless you were born in the early 2010s. Which might explain this little outburst, I guess.

I am a proper genuine Richmond supporter. Ie, I didn't follow footy 1983-2010. What happened?

 

[Doc1763]

Geelong

 

[Burtyl78]

Played in a Grand Final 4 years ago at the Gabba and missed finals together last year for the first time since 2006.

Richmond has a new coach and J Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin has retired; Dimma is gone and Geelong recently won a flag 2 years ago.

Who will be better this season? Personally I say Geelong, just and will be in the mix.

Just remember your mob either loses or can only just beat interstate teams in grand finals whilst the rest of us flog them, start a new thread

 

[Toump Ass]

Richmond suck.
Absolute spud of a coach. Mark my words.