Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[carlton_99]

In his first final Newcombe had 35 disposals, 1 goal, 10 score involvements. Not sure finals impact is a reason to put Walsh ahead of Newc.

I rate Walsh really highly and am not claiming Newc or Day are way better players. They all belong in a similar tier of player at this stage.

It's not the reason it's a reason. And I never said they don't belong in a similar tier - I rate both Hawks players highly.

Walsh's finals series showed the impact he has in games that have mattered and that coupled with his floor being so high puts him ahead for me. And that's despite significant back injuries the last 2 years

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I had Carlton supporters crack a hissy fit in another thread because I rated Newcombe and Day ahead of Walsh - they weren't game enough to make the comment in this thread, where we'd have Hawthorn supporters weigh in on the discussion.

Sam Walsh is 24 years old and had an outstanding year in 2021 - 30 votes in the Brownlow Medal, and Carlton's best and fairest, and an outstanding 2023 finals series. However, he hasn't been able to recapture that 2021 form consistently since, acknowledging he has been hampered with various injury issues. Since 2021, he has polled 35 votes in 54 games in the Brownlow, and finished 3rd, 9th and 3rd in his club's best and fairest.

Jai Newcombe is 23 years old and polled 53 votes from 67 games in the Brownlow over the past 3 seasons, in a lesser team than Walsh for the first two seasons, and has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st in his club best and fairest over the past 3 seasons. He is clearly ahead of Walsh going into 2025.

Will Day is not so clear cut, but he is also a year younger than Walsh and has proven his best football is up there with the best players in the competition. In his only near complete season - 2023 where he only missed two games, he won his club's best and fairest, and we all saw how much better he made his side in 2024 when he returned from injury.

I have no qualms in having more confidence in these two players producing greater output in 2025 than Walsh. If Walsh recaptures his best form and does it consistently, it could be a close contest, but I'm pretty confident with my ranking of Newcombe ahead of Day, who is ahead of Walsh.

Thoughts?

Always willing to make ridiculous statements and predictions but never willing to put anything at stake.
Just brainless trolling as always.

Neither Newcombe nor Day have reached the level Walsh has as individual players. All Australians, Gary Ayers, Coaches votes in a season, Brownlow votes in a season, Walsh has consistently been the better player throughout their careers.

All 3 are fantastic players but when they're all fit and playing at their best the two Hawthorn boys aren't on the same level.

Happy to back that if Walsh has a full pre season he's the best midfielder not named Cripps between the two teams in 2025.

 

[Obeanie1]

He would clearly and easily be the best mid at your club... Before even getting in to any other clubs. Also he isn't clearly our best, a fit Day is right alongside him.

So Newcombe and Harley are put up for trade.

Which one would teams want more?

Don't bother replying. Everyone knows the answer already.

Any other teams?

North. Sheezel.

Crows. Dawson.

Essendon. Merrett

Saints. Steele.

I'll let others continue.

 

[carlton_99]

There is no way known Walsh has been better than Newcombe over the past 2 or even 3 years. You're focussing your argument on Walsh's 2023 finals series - did you happen to see Newcombe's finals performances this year?

"There is no way known I'm wrong" is a great way to have the debate you wanted.

 

[adammania9]

So Newcombe and Harley are put up for trade.

Which one would teams want more?

Don't bother replying. Everyone knows the answer already.

Any other teams?

North. Sheezel.

Crows. Dawson.

Essendon. Merrett

Saints. Steele.

I'll let others continue.

You just asked a different question. You didn’t ask which player has the highest trade value.

Newcombe would be West Coast’s, Richmond’s and St Kilda’s best midfielder. Probably Geelong’s and touch and go with Gold Coast and GWS.

 

[Iceman!]

So Newcombe and Harley are put up for trade.

Which one would teams want more?

Don't bother replying. Everyone knows the answer already.

Any other teams?

North. Sheezel.

Crows. Dawson.

Essendon. Merrett

Saints. Steele.

I'll let others continue.

Do not shift the narrative, you said who is a better player. Newc is much much much better at this point. In a couple years who knows.

Suns, Cats, Richmond as well he would be in the discussion at the very least. I would say he is very close to Steele, Sheezel Dawson on current form as well. Steele and Dawson have more runs on the board probably.

 

[Fadge]

Always willing to make ridiculous statements and predictions but never willing to put anything at stake.
Just brainless trolling as always.

Neither Newcombe nor Day have reached the level Walsh has as individual players. All Australians, Gary Ayers, Coaches votes in a season, Brownlow votes in a season, Walsh has consistently been the better player throughout their careers.

All 3 are fantastic players but when they're all fit and playing at their best the two Hawthorn boys aren't on the same level.

Happy to back that if Walsh has a full pre season he's the best midfielder not named Cripps between the two teams in 2025.

You're referring to a one-off season that happened in 2021 - using plurals 'All Australians' when he's only done it once.

As has been pointed out, you can't use Walsh's 2023 finals performances as a differentiator between Walsh and Newcombe, given Newcombe's finals performances in 2024.

4 seasons is a long time ago, and on the body of work we have seen since then, both Newcombe and Day have been better performed, despite being younger, and I'm taking them both ahead of Walsh going into 2025.

 

[Obeanie1]

You just asked a different question. You didn’t ask which player has the highest trade value.

Newcombe would be West Coast’s, Richmond’s and St Kilda’s best midfielder. Probably Geelong’s and touch and go with Gold Coast and GWS.

Harley has already shown he will be a better mid than Newcombe.

Likely already is.

Trade value is a decent indicator of talent isn't it?

Newcombe would likely be Richmond's best midfielder right now as Taranto and Hopper had down years in 2024. If Taranto and Hopper had injury free uninterrupted seasons there wouldn't be that much separating them from Newcombe's output. All three can rack it up. Taranto more damaging in the forward half. Hopper a similar accumulator at the coal face doing the heavy lifting.

 

[WilloTree]

Tough one. Calton's list should have had them Prelims this year and a shot at the Premiership in 2025. Injuries and Crazy Vossy aside, they should still be on track for top 4.

Hawks have a better coach and are heading toward the stratosphere according to Vic media. Top 4 wouldn't surprise either.

I'll go with Carlton, but it's line ball.

 

[Obeanie1]

Do not shift the narrative, you said who is a better player. Newc is much much much better at this point. In a couple years who knows.

Suns, Cats, Richmond as well he would be in the discussion at the very least. I would say he is very close to Steele, Sheezel Dawson on current form as well. Steele and Dawson have more runs on the board probably.

Suns have Anderson, Rowell and Miller.

All three would be the equal to Newcombe in output.

Cats. He may just pip Dangerfield due to age. And the other Geelong mids are either younger developing mids or old on their last legs. They only just picked up Bailey Smith who is well up there in quality if he can regain his form pre ACL.

 

[adammania9]

Harley has already shown he will be a better mid than Newcombe.

Likely already is.

Trade value is a decent indicator of talent isn't it?

Newcombe would likely be Richmond's best midfielder right now as Taranto and Hopper had down years in 2024. If Taranto and Hopper had injury free uninterrupted seasons there wouldn't be that much separating them from Newcombe's output. All three can rack it up. Taranto more damaging in the forward half. Hopper a similar accumulator at the coal face doing the heavy lifting.

Newcombe is definitely a better than player than Reid right now. Probably will be next season. 2026 could be Reid, but Newcombe continues to grow at an upward trajectory too. Both could be top 10 mids in the comp at their peak.

2021 was Hopper's last season of note. Newcombe clears him considerably these days. Taranto is a fine player, but Newcombe is cleaner and their scoreboard output is surprisingly similar (25 goals vs 23 in favour of Taranto in the last two years) granted Newcombe has played more footy.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Newcombe needs more consistency in his game IMO.

He is big but not quick.

And he is the Hawks #1 mid.

How many other clubs would he be the #1 mid?

I would suggest none. Will be interested in Hawks fans thoughts on where he ranks compared to other clubs. And the Lols I will put in the 'yep I have nothing" column.

No surprise who the first lol was from.

So Lad which other club is Newcombe the #1 mid at?

You're underrating Newcombe IMO.

I'm not going to try and make an argument you'll likely view as biased so instead will refer to neutral league wide awards.

Newcombe finished 10th in the Brownlow

He also received the 9th most coaches votes in 2024.

He also received the most votes per game in finals in 2024.

If you you look at both lists, at least 8 teams had 0 players finish ahead of Newcombe in either award, let alone both (Geel, North, Ess, Melb, StK, Ade, Rich, WC).

 

[Iceman!]

Harley has already shown he will be a better mid than Newcombe.

Likely already is.

Trade value is a decent indicator of talent isn't it?

Newcombe would likely be Richmond's best midfielder right now as Taranto and Hopper had down years in 2024. If Taranto and Hopper had injury free uninterrupted seasons there wouldn't be that much separating them from Newcombe's output. All three can rack it up. Taranto more damaging in the forward half. Hopper a similar accumulator at the coal face doing the heavy lifting.

The bolded is just ridiculous

Mentioning Hopper anywhere near Newcombe is just as ridiculous.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You're referring to a one-off season that happened in 2021 - using plurals 'All Australians' when he's only done it once.

As has been pointed out, you can't use Walsh's 2023 finals performances as a differentiator between Walsh and Newcombe, given Newcombe's finals performances in 2024.

4 seasons is a long time ago, and on the body of work we have seen since then, both Newcombe and Day have been better performed, despite being younger, and I'm taking them both ahead of Walsh going into 2025.

Do you have any statistics to back this up? Or just more of the 'vibe' as always... Statistically Walsh is miles ahead of both.

 

[Obeanie1]

I had Carlton supporters crack a hissy fit in another thread because I rated Newcombe and Day ahead of Walsh - they weren't game enough to make the comment in this thread, where we'd have Hawthorn supporters weigh in on the discussion.

Sam Walsh is 24 years old and had an outstanding year in 2021 - 30 votes in the Brownlow Medal, and Carlton's best and fairest, and an outstanding 2023 finals series. However, he hasn't been able to recapture that 2021 form consistently since, acknowledging he has been hampered with various injury issues. Since 2021, he has polled 35 votes in 54 games in the Brownlow, and finished 3rd, 9th and 3rd in his club's best and fairest.

Jai Newcombe is 23 years old and polled 53 votes from 67 games in the Brownlow over the past 3 seasons, in a lesser team than Walsh for the first two seasons, and has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st in his club best and fairest over the past 3 seasons. He is clearly ahead of Walsh going into 2025.

Will Day is not so clear cut, but he is also a year younger than Walsh and has proven his best football is up there with the best players in the competition. In his only near complete season - 2023 where he only missed two games, he won his club's best and fairest, and we all saw how much better he made his side in 2024 when he returned from injury.

I have no qualms in having more confidence in these two players producing greater output in 2025 than Walsh. If Walsh recaptures his best form and does it consistently, it could be a close contest, but I'm pretty confident with my ranking of Newcombe ahead of Day, who is ahead of Walsh.

Thoughts?

So umpires votes are how we measure players against each other?

Who at the Hawks has competed for / consistently taken Brownlow votes away from Newcombe? Easier to get votes being a standout player in a lesser team.

Who has taken Brownlow votes away from Walsh? P Cripps. 2 x Brownlow winner.

So not sure if Brownlow votes is the "be all and end all" way to compare players worth / impact. In reality what do umpires know?

Matt Priddis won a Brownlow. A lot of better midfielders in the comp than Matt Priddis that year. Suggest his teammates didn't steal too many votes from him either.

 

[Obeanie1]

The bolded is just ridiculous

Mentioning Hopper anywhere near Newcombe is just as ridiculous.

Just using the word ridiculous doesn't add any weight to a debate.

Newcombe v Reid. Who would you choose? Right now. To lead your midfield?

As I said. Previously when fit Hopper has produced similar levels of impact when getting the opportunity. What is so ridiculous about that?

 

[TheFourPillars]

AFLCA Champion Player of the Year leaderboard 2024 - Final​

Votes	Player	Club
117	Nick Daicos	Collingwood
113	Patrick Cripps	Carlton
112	Isaac Heeney	Sydney
100	Caleb Serong	Fremantle
97	Lachie Neale	Brisbane
93	Marcus Bontempelli	Western Bulldogs
86	Errol Gulden	Sydney
80	Zach Merrett	Essendon
80	Chad Warner	Sydney
78	Zak Butters	Port Adelaide
77	Adam Treloar	Western Bulldogs
75	Jason Horne-Francis	Port Adelaide
70	Matt Rowell	Gold Coast
69	Jai Newcombe	Hawthorn
69	Andrew Brayshaw	Fremantle
69	Sam Walsh	Carlton

 

[Guardian Hawk]

So umpires votes are how we measure players against each other?

Who at the Hawks has competed for / consistently taken Brownlow votes away from Newcombe? Easier to get votes being a standout player in a lesser team.

Who has taken Brownlow votes away from Walsh? P Cripps. 2 x Brownlow winner.

So not sure if Brownlow votes is the "be all and end all" way to compare players worth / impact. In reality what do umpires know?

Matt Priddis won a Brownlow. A lot of better midfielders in the comp than Matt Priddis that year. Suggest his teammates didn't steal too many votes from him either.

Just on the bolded - there are people that keep saying this but it is completely fabricated.

It is FAR easier to get votes on winning, succesful teams (even when you have good team mates) than it is to get votes on poor teams.

Look at the Brownlow winners for however long you like. The overwhelming majority come from finalists - and usually top 4 teams with multiple good players.

Look at the top 5 of every Brownlow year - it's dominated by teams at the top of the ladder - not by "standout players in poor teams".

The only non finalist winners in the last 20 odd years are the aboslute cream players as well - guys like peak Ablett Jnr, peak Fyfe, etc.

Winning sides dominate the votes. Look at every players vote tally and you will see that nearly everyone gets 90%+ of the votes when their side wins.

The notion that it is easier to get votes in a poor side is probably the biggest furphy in football.

 

[Fadge]

So umpires votes are how we measure players against each other?

Who at the Hawks has competed for / consistently taken Brownlow votes away from Newcombe? Easier to get votes being a standout player in a lesser team.

Who has taken Brownlow votes away from Walsh? P Cripps. 2 x Brownlow winner.

So not sure if Brownlow votes is the "be all and end all" way to compare players worth / impact. In reality what do umpires know?

Matt Priddis won a Brownlow. A lot of better midfielders in the comp than Matt Priddis that year. Suggest his teammates didn't steal too many votes from him either.

Did you ignore my reference to club best and fairests?

'What would the players' coaches know?'...

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Just using the word ridiculous doesn't add any weight to a debate.

Newcombe v Reid. Who would you choose? Right now. To lead your midfield?

As I said. Previously when fit Hopper has produced similar levels of impact when getting the opportunity. What is so ridiculous about that?


View attachment 2150208

You are comparing the career averages of a 27 year old to a 23 year old and even then, Newcombe leads every single category, except for turnovers, behinds and 0.4 of a contested possession.

Even then, stats don't tell the full story, given Hopper is noted as an accumulator with very poor ball use/impact (his kicking efficiency is only 50%). This is evident by things like the fact that despite Newcombe being 4.5 years younger, Newcombe already has 60 more coaches votes (191-131) and more than double the Brownlow votes (53-21).

 

[Fadge]

Newcombe v Reid. Who would you choose? Right now. To lead your midfield?

For 2025?

Newcombe. And I wouldn't think twice about it.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I like Newcombe and especially Day and think they are becoming stars of the competition but over the last two years Walsh has still been the better player. We saw in his 2023 finals series despite significant injuries what impact he has and imo Day/Newcombe have not reached that to date.

For fairness, Newcombe still came 4th in the Gary Ayres medal this year despite only playing 2 finals.

Walsh was a deserving winner the previous season, however we won't know how Newcombe stacked up in a direct comparison because Hawthorn didn't advance through to the prelim.

They are two very different types of midfielders to compare entirely, which makes this discussion an interesting, albeit flawed one.

 

[carlton_99]

For fairness, Newcombe still came 4th in the Gary Ayres medal this year despite only playing 2 finals.

Walsh was a deserving winner the previous season, however we won't know how Newcombe stacked up in a direct comparison because Hawthorn didn't advance through to the prelim.

They are two very different types of midfielders to compare entirely, which makes this discussion an interesting, albeit flawed one.

I agree very different players. I'm big on Newcombe and funnily enough even bigger on Day. If he gets a clean run at it he can be a top 10 player in the competition - oozes class.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Did you ignore my reference to club best and fairests?

'What would the players' coaches know?'...

Walsh has played how many full seasons of late? Bit easier to go well in a BnF when you've stayed on the park consistently.

But going back, statistically how is Newcombe or Day ahead of Walsh? Even in a down year Walsh beats them on nearly every critical measure there is for a mid.

 

[Iceman!]

Just using the word ridiculous doesn't add any weight to a debate.

Newcombe v Reid. Who would you choose? Right now. To lead your midfield?

As I said. Previously when fit Hopper has produced similar levels of impact when getting the opportunity. What is so ridiculous about that?


View attachment 2150208

Is this actually a serious question? Newcombe by a long long long long long way. I have nothing bad to say about Reid who is a superstar in the making, i rate his potential highly. But he is coming off a season where he averaged 18 touches, 0.5 goals a game. Newcombe is better and it isn't close. In a few years who knows, right now it is a big gap.

Hopper is closer to Worpel than he is Newcombe, inside contested bulls, accumulators with questionable disposal at times.