Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Blackhawk42]

Suns have Anderson, Rowell and Miller.

All three would be the equal to Newcombe in output.

Cats. He may just pip Dangerfield due to age. And the other Geelong mids are either younger developing mids or old on their last legs. They only just picked up Bailey Smith who is well up there in quality if he can regain his form pre ACL.

The best Newcombe comparison is actually Chad Warner.

The deep dive is over on the polls board, which is recommended reading. Age, statistical averages, individual accolades etc etc are all amazingly even.

Personally, I'd take Warner and Newcombe collectively over Rowell and Anderson purely from an impact point of view.

Newcombe now has career best form leading into and during a finals series in his back pocket as well. Something Anderson and Rowell in particular aren't able to claim.

 

[Iceman!]

Walsh has played how many full seasons of late? Bit easier to go well in a BnF when you've stayed on the park consistently.

But going back, statistically how is Newcombe or Day ahead of Walsh? Even in a down year Walsh beats them on nearly every critical measure there is for a mid.

I am not going to say it is clear or anything i rate them both highly but what stats?

Comparing them this year Newc has him covered in goals, goal assists, way higher in disposal efficiency, clearances. I would say they are all pretty critical areas for a mid.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I agree very different players. I'm big on Newcombe and funnily enough even bigger on Day. If he gets a clean run at it he can be a top 10 player in the competition - oozes class.

I was somewhat surprised that Day beat Newcombe in our 2023 best and fairest, however it probably showed just how much potential Will has, doing so in his first ever season as a midfielder.

He likely could have gone back to back if he'd played a full season as well, because his good games this year were eye-catchingly good.

 

[Fadge]

Just on the bolded - there are people that keep saying this but it is completely fabricated.

It is FAR easier to get votes on winning, succesful teams (even when you have good team mates) than it is to get votes on poor teams.

Look at the Brownlow winners for however long you like. The overwhelming majority come from finalists - and usually top 4 teams with multiple good players.

Look at the top 5 of every Brownlow year - it's dominated by teams at the top of the ladder - not by "standout players in poor teams".

The only non finalist winners in the last 20 odd years are the aboslute cream players as well - guys like peak Ablett Jnr, peak Fyfe, etc.

Winning sides dominate the votes. Look at every players vote tally and you will see that nearly everyone gets 90%+ of the votes when their side wins.

The notion that it is easier to get votes in a poor side is probably the biggest furphy in football.

Absolutely spot on.

Fancy challenging me with the question 'Who did Newcombe compete with for Brownlow votes?'

How about the opposition players from teams that won 35 of the first 50 games over the three year period I referenced?

Walsh didn't seem to have any problems capturing the attention of the umpires with his 30 vote 2021. Cripps mustn't have played that year...

 

[Obeanie1]

Did you ignore my reference to club best and fairests?

'What would the players' coaches know?'...

No I didn't. It isn't relevant though. As explained. I'll explain it again.

Are you competing against other clubs mids in your clubs Best and Fairest?

No, you aren't.

So is a B&F at one club better or worst than the B&F at another club? You don't know unless you start comparing the two players directly.

A club with a weaker list may have a B&F who wouldn't even make the top 3 at a club with a stronger list.

Example: How would Newcombe go at the B&F he played for the Lions? All things being equal on the injury / fitness front would he finish ahead of Neale, Zorko or Dunckley?

 

[Obeanie1]

The best Newcombe comparison is actually Chad Warner.

The deep dive is over on the polls board, which is recommended reading. Age, statistical averages, individual accolades etc etc are all amazingly even.

Personally, I'd take Warner and Newcombe collectively over Rowell and Anderson purely from an impact point of view.

Newcombe now has career best form leading into and during a finals series in his back pocket as well. Something Anderson and Rowell in particular aren't able to claim.

Does Newcombe play half forward / mid?

My recollection is he is more of an inside mid.



Well I will admit the above was closer than I expected. Expected Newcombe to have more possessions due to time on ball and attending more center bounces.

Below is the 2024 season.





Again very similar stats. Chad has more M's gained. Newcombe more Centre Clearances. Which makes sense.

 

[Fadge]

No I didn't. It isn't relevant though. As explained. I'll explain it again.

Are you competing against other clubs mids in your clubs Best and Fairest?

No, you aren't.

So is a B&F at one club better or worst than the B&F at another club? You don't know unless you start comparing the two players directly.

A club with a weaker list may have a B&F who wouldn't even make the top 3 at a club with a stronger list.

Example: How would Newcombe go at the B&F he played for the Lions? All things being equal on the injury / fitness front would he finish ahead of Neale, Zorko or Dunckley?

Newcombe would go better than Walsh would in any club best and fairest over the past three seasons, because he has performed better over that time.

 

[Obeanie1]

Newcombe would go better than Walsh would in any club best and fairest over the past three seasons, because he has performed better over that time.

And Cripps? The 2 x Brownlow winner?

Newcombe had very similar 2024 to Warner.




Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

 

[Fadge]

Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

Ahead of Walsh if they both played for the Swans, in each of the past 3 years.

 

[TheFourPillars]

And Cripps? The 2 x Brownlow winner?

Newcombe had very similar 2024 to Warner.


View attachment 2150280

Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

4th

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Just list what team you believe Newcombe would be the #1 mid at. Simple.

We are comparing the Hawks best mid to other teams best mid. Not how a Hawks player compared at a B&F competing against his own teammates. Not relevant.

Being a decent player compared to your own teammates doesn't win football games or flags does it? You need to be better than your opposition. I'm pretty sure I understand that quite well enough.

He’d be the number 1 mid at your club by a margin, for starters.

Amazing last couple of pages of you backflipping after stating a guy who’s finished top 2 in his clubs best and fairest for the last 3 years isn’t “consistent”.

But then again you’re the same poster that argued a few years ago that Sicily returning form his ACL wouldn’t improve us either, so talent identification isn’t really a strong suit of yours.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Always willing to make ridiculous statements and predictions but never willing to put anything at stake.
Just brainless trolling as always.

Neither Newcombe nor Day have reached the level Walsh has as individual players. All Australians, Gary Ayers, Coaches votes in a season, Brownlow votes in a season, Walsh has consistently been the better player throughout their careers.

All 3 are fantastic players but when they're all fit and playing at their best the two Hawthorn boys aren't on the same level.

Happy to back that if Walsh has a full pre season he's the best midfielder not named Cripps between the two teams in 2025.

Do you have any statistics to back this up? Or just more of the 'vibe' as always... Statistically Walsh is miles ahead of both.

Walsh has played how many full seasons of late? Bit easier to go well in a BnF when you've stayed on the park consistently.

But going back, statistically how is Newcombe or Day ahead of Walsh? Even in a down year Walsh beats them on nearly every critical measure there is for a mid.

It's not an argument I would make (i.e. Newcombe>Walsh) as I really rate Walsh but I'm not sure your claims about Walsh being miles ahead or having a better season in a down year actually stack up.

Over the last 2 seasons, Newcombe has earnt 147 Coaches votes to Walsh's 111 (inclusive of Gary Ayers votes)
Newcombe has picked up 42 Brownlow votes to Walsh's 21.
Yes, Walsh has missed a handful of games but Newcombe leads both categories in averages too.
I'm not a fan of player ratings at all, but Newcombe has been ahead the last 3 seasons (before which was his debut year as a mid season draftee)

Not sure Walsh is "statistically miles ahead" either. In 2024, Walsh got more of the ball, more metres gained, more inside 50's and more score involvements (6.7 to 6.5). Newcombe got more contested ball, more clearances/centre clearances, more goals, more assists, more marks (and contested marks) and much better disposal efficiency. What the stats say is that Walsh gets the ball more often (28 vs 24) but tends to use it much more poorly when he does, hence effective disposals being less, disposal efficiency over 10% worse and kicking efficiency over 15% worse.

 

[Obeanie1]

He’d be the number 1 mid at your club by a margin, for starters.

Amazing last couple of pages of you backflipping after stating a guy who’s finished top 2 in his clubs best and fairest for the last 3 years isn’t “consistent”.

But then again you’re the same poster that argued a few years ago that Sicily returning form his ACL wouldn’t improve us either, so talent identification isn’t really a strong suit of yours.

Geez you love throwing mud at other clubs and posters to avoid answering a simple question.

Very consistent style I will say. Avoid the question and create a distraction.

So Newcombe would be the best mid at the Eagles? If he is it won't be for long.

What a high bar you have set.

He might be the best at Richmond too. The two last teams to win the spoon. Congratulations, quite an achievement.

As for recalling what I posted years ago. You have a better memory than I than I on that one. But saying someone may not come back from an ACL and play at the same level. Wow. That is really going out on a limb.

If you hadn't worked out I don't rate Hawthorn's midfield to date. They are improving. If Newcombe continues as the best mid then I wouldn't expect to be playing in too many prelims or GF's. In a team like the Lions or Swans he'd be #4. Carlton # 3. When it comes to the crunch like this year the better midfield prevails. And this year Hawks couldn't get it done against Port who were flogged the following week.

IMO Carlton has more quality and depth in the midfield. Most teams do compared to the Hawks. Can see Hawks doing a Crows and taking a step backwards next year. Will Barrass and Battle gel straight away with a different game plan, structure and teammates?

Development and improvement is not always linear, as the Crows just proved that.

That is my opinion. And its different to yours. That's life.

 

[Iceman!]

Geez you love throwing mud at other clubs and posters to avoid answering a simple question.

Very consistent style I will say. Avoid the question and create a distraction.

So Newcombe would be the best mid at the Eagles? If he is it won't be for long.

What a high bar you have set.

He might be the best at Richmond too. The two last teams to win the spoon. Congratulations, quite an achievement.

As for recalling what I posted years ago. You have a better memory than I than I on that one. But saying someone may not come back from an ACL and play at the same level. Wow. That is really going out on a limb.

If you hadn't worked out I don't rate Hawthorn's midfield to date. They are improving. If Newcombe continues as the best mid then I wouldn't expect to be playing in too many prelims or GF's. In a team like the Lions or Swans he'd be #4. Carlton # 3. When it comes to the crunch like this year the better midfield prevails. And this year Hawks couldn't get it done against Port who were flogged the following week.

IMO Carlton has more quality and depth in the midfield. Most teams do compared to the Hawks. Can see Hawks doing a Crows and taking a step backwards next year. Will Barrass and Battle gel straight away with a different game plan, structure and teammates?

Development and improvement is not always linear, as the Crows just proved that.

That is my opinion. And its different to yours. That's life.

The problem with this line of thinking is you act like games are played on paper.

The gaps between guys like Newcombe, Walsh, Dawson, Dunkley, Steele, LDU etc is so slim. In any given year any of them can play at a higher level. Next year it can totally flip.

It is really odd seeing you act as if it’s a foregone conclusion that Reid will go past Newc super quickly, but don’t acknowledge he himself can improve and go past guys like Dunkley, Steele and Dawson who have been in the AFL longer.

improvement isn’t linear until it suits the narrative you want in which case they will all go past Newcombe asap.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Geez you love throwing mud at other clubs and posters to avoid answering a simple question.

Very consistent style I will say. Avoid the question and create a distraction.

So Newcombe would be the best mid at the Eagles? If he is it won't be for long.

What a high bar you have set.

He might be the best at Richmond too. The two last teams to win the spoon. Congratulations, quite an achievement.

As for recalling what I posted years ago. You have a better memory than I than I on that one. But saying someone may not come back from an ACL and play at the same level. Wow. That is really going out on a limb.

If you hadn't worked out I don't rate Hawthorn's midfield to date. They are improving. If Newcombe continues as the best mid then I wouldn't expect to be playing in too many prelims or GF's. In a team like the Lions or Swans he'd be #4. Carlton # 3. When it comes to the crunch like this year the better midfield prevails. And this year Hawks couldn't get it done against Port who were flogged the following week.

IMO Carlton has more quality and depth in the midfield. Most teams do compared to the Hawks. Can see Hawks doing a Crows and taking a step backwards next year. Will Barrass and Battle gel straight away with a different game plan, structure and teammates?

Development and improvement is not always linear, as the Crows just proved that.

That is my opinion. And its different to yours. That's life.

Do they have more depth in the midfield? They have lost a bit in the trade period. God forbid Cripps falls over I fear for Carlton's season.

Mate if most teams have more depth in the midfield than us how did we make finals? I think everyone sees our midfield and then counts the high end draft pics and automatically dismisses them. Draft picks are numbers it's about the players and performance. We outperformed a lot of midfields this year with high end draft pics including Carltons. It's not about getting the ball 40 times but how effective you are.

We may or may not go backwards but just because other teams have done that doesn't mean Hawthorn will. Adelaide going backwards had more to do with Adelaide not some destiny of improving and going backwards.

Development and improvement isn't linear sometimes. We brought in Barrass and Battle they are not 18 and 19 year olds they are seasoned players more likely to gel faster they should be primed by finals which is when we would need them against the better teams. Our defence was already good by the end of last year.

What Battle and Barrass give us is flexibility so we won't look the same in defence or attack next year. Thats the big change. We are a very even team there are very few key players on our list. It means that we can absorb players having bad games because others pick up the slack from week to week. For many ppl being an even team is seen as a weakness I see it as absolute strength because it makes us hard to play against. You can't just sit someone on a star and effectively kill us. We have too many players playing well enough for us to win the game.

There are two things that will be different we will be hunted next year and there will be expectation externally. How we manage this throughout the season will go a long way to determining how successful we will be.

 

[TheFourPillars]

It's not an argument I would make (i.e. Newcombe>Walsh) as I really rate Walsh but I'm not sure your claims about Walsh being miles ahead or having a better season in a down year actually stack up.

Over the last 2 seasons, Newcombe has earnt 147 Coaches votes to Walsh's 111 (inclusive of Gary Ayers votes)
Newcombe has picked up 42 Brownlow votes to Walsh's 21.
Yes, Walsh has missed a handful of games but Newcombe leads both categories in averages too.
I'm not a fan of player ratings at all, but Newcombe has been ahead the last 3 seasons (before which was his debut year as a mid season draftee)

Not sure Walsh is "statistically miles ahead" either. In 2024, Walsh got more of the ball, more metres gained, more inside 50's and more score involvements (6.7 to 6.5). Newcombe got more contested ball, more clearances/centre clearances, more goals, more assists, more marks (and contested marks) and much better disposal efficiency. What the stats say is that Walsh gets the ball more often (28 vs 24) but tends to use it much more poorly when he does, hence effective disposals being less, disposal efficiency over 10% worse and kicking efficiency over 15% worse.

Quality over Quantity

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Quality over Quantity

Walsh received the same amount of coaches votes in fewer games this season while having a better player than either of them taking most of the votes.

Quality over Quantity?

 

[bergholt]

I would still question their ratings as they have Pittonet as a B while Meek is a C+. They also have Fantasia and Silvagni as B's. Also wouldn't have Jiath and Maginness as B's, Breust obviously isn't a B+ anymore as well

• Everyone starts on D.
• Playing 5+ games in a season or getting a coaches vote bumps you up to C.
• Playing 20+ games in a season bumps you up to C+.
• Getting 10+ coaches votes or getting in the AA squad bumps you up to B.
• Getting 30+ coaches votes or 12+ brownlow votes gives you a couple of years at B+ minimum.
• Getting AA or 65+ coaches votes or 20+ brownlow votes gives you a year or two at A minimum.
• Getting 3 years of AA or 3 years of 90+ coaches votes gives you a year or two of A+.

So yeah lineball between Pittonet and Meek - Pittonet had one year of 14 coaches votes, Meek 7 this year. A couple of votes go the other way and they could swap.

• Silvagni a couple of 10 coaches votes years, maybe just a legit B.
• Fantasia had a bunch of B/B+ years, hard for the system to really know how much he's dropped off.
• Maginness luck to be a B thanks to scraping to 10 coaches votes in 2022.
• Jiath a solid B, just hasn't been fit.

Anyway it's all voodoo really, shoot me a message if you have any ideas for improvements.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Walsh received the same amount of coaches votes in fewer games this season while having a better player than either of them taking most of the votes.

Quality over Quantity?

Yes he did that while having to get the ball more. No one is arguing that Walsh is not a quality player what we are saying is Newk is as well

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yes he did that while having to get the ball more. No one is arguing that Walsh is not a quality player what we are saying is Newk is as well

I think you'll find Fadge is.

Either way the argument is ridiculous, Newcombe, Day and Walsh are all very very good players. Plus, the 2 Hawks boys are players I get nothing but enjoyment from watching so I'm not even interested in the argument.

Was all instigated by Fadges usual trolling

 

[threesixpio]

This has turned into a “how good is Jai Newcombe” thread rather than a “how balanced are the midfields of Carlton and Hawthorn”. Sometimes focusing on one player rather than how they work as a collective misses the bigger picture. Case in point, if you have four Conor Nashes you’re in trouble but having one big brute like him allows the other mids more time and space etc.

Side note: This is a rare “team A verses team B” thread where most of the angst is not between the supporters of said teams. Does this mean Blues and Hawks supporters are reasonable and polite?

Red Bull - what are your thoughts on this?

 

[threesixpio]

And Cripps? The 2 x Brownlow winner?

Newcombe had very similar 2024 to Warner.


View attachment 2150280

Where would he finish at the Swans B&F?

Newcombe must have run over your mum or something. You must really hate him

 

[Fadge]

I think you'll find Fadge is.

Either way the argument is ridiculous, Newcombe, Day and Walsh are all very very good players. Plus, the 2 Hawks boys are players I get nothing but enjoyment from watching so I'm not even interested in the argument.

Was all instigated by Fadges usual trolling

Really?

By saying Walsh is the 4th best player at Carlton (behind Cripps, Weitering and Curnow), and the 7th best player across both lists (behind Newcombe, Sicily and Day for Hawthorn)?

That's the reason you're accusing me of saying Walsh is not a quality player and it is an example of my usual trolling?

Oh boy.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Geez you love throwing mud at other clubs and posters to avoid answering a simple question.

Very consistent style I will say. Avoid the question and create a distraction.

So Newcombe would be the best mid at the Eagles? If he is it won't be for long.

What a high bar you have set.

He might be the best at Richmond too. The two last teams to win the spoon. Congratulations, quite an achievement.

As for recalling what I posted years ago. You have a better memory than I than I on that one. But saying someone may not come back from an ACL and play at the same level. Wow. That is really going out on a limb.

If you hadn't worked out I don't rate Hawthorn's midfield to date. They are improving. If Newcombe continues as the best mid then I wouldn't expect to be playing in too many prelims or GF's. In a team like the Lions or Swans he'd be #4. Carlton # 3. When it comes to the crunch like this year the better midfield prevails. And this year Hawks couldn't get it done against Port who were flogged the following week.

IMO Carlton has more quality and depth in the midfield. Most teams do compared to the Hawks. Can see Hawks doing a Crows and taking a step backwards next year. Will Barrass and Battle gel straight away with a different game plan, structure and teammates?

Development and improvement is not always linear, as the Crows just proved that.

That is my opinion. And its different to yours. That's life.

I answered your question, so you didn’t need an extra 6 paragraphs of waffle.

I remember people who make dumb arguments on Bigfooty. Your Sicily one was memorable, and no it wasn’t as simple as saying he might not come back as good as he was. Just like your silly claim in here about Newcombe being inconsistent you didn’t let go, but I have noted that you’re now trying to make a completely different argument, choosing to ask if he’d be number 1 at any other club, like anyone cares. Funny that you’ve shifted the goal posts from him being inconsistent though.

As for development isn’t always linear and then mentioning the Crows, anyone worth a pinch of shit in footy circles could see that they went backwards in 2024 because Walker, Dawson and a bunch of their older players no longer lead them to wins like they did in 2023. Nothing to do with their youngsters, because they’ve got SFA coming through the middle and you only had to look at their best and fairest results from 2023 to see who was doing all the lifting.

Personally, I couldn’t care less if you don’t rate the Hawks, but I will poke fun at your silly claims when I see them.

 

[kirbatron]

injuries
fixture
mitch vs voss