Who will be better in 2026? Geelong or Hawthorn.

[Xtreme]

All depends on Day for me once finals starts.

If he is fit I go Hawks.

If not I go Cats.

Geelong have to make finals first! (as do the Hawks )

 

[Seattle Mariners]

Hawks to finish 7th
Geelong 8th.

 

[Battlepants]

This is actually a really tough question. Looking at both sides..

Geelong
They have been a quality side for as long as I can remember and don't seem to have thr decency to just spend some time down the bottom of the ladder like everyone else. Every time I've tipped them to drop off, they manage to bounce back up the ladder. They have some real stars and a bunch of promising young players as well. Having said all that, they are facing some issues next year.

Geelong have one of the oldest lists in the competition. Dangerfield turns 36 in April, and although he showed this year that he's still perfectly capable of carrying the team on his back with some incredible performances, he has to slow down at some point. This could be the year.

Their ruck stocks are extremely thin. A 35 year-old Stanley with Toby Conway as backup would not fill anyone with confidence. They tried to bring in Rowan Marshell to address this clear weak point in the list, but failed.

Finally, Geelong have the hardest draw out of anyone in the 2026 fixture. With double-ups against Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Fremantle and Gold Coast. That is just... scary. If they're off their game at all, they're going to struggle.

Hawthorn
They have a really good young list, with quality across every line. My Giants have had some really exciting and hard-fought games against them in the last couple of years. They have probably one of the best defensive units in the league (along with us). They also have a good age bracket across their list, so you'd expect a number of their players to improve next year just through natural progression.

Their issues... well their midfield is a bit thin. If Day continues to have issues with injury they could get exposed through the middle of the ground (again, like the Giants this season).

The rule changes will be interesting as well. The new rule about shrugging/ducking into tackles means the Hawks are going to have to find a new way to get goals. However the bench being extended to 5 players probably helps them more than any other team, giving them increased flexibility to use their talls like Sicily and Weddle who can swap between attack and defence.

My tip: Hawthorn by 2 - 3 ladder positions.

 

[Sttew]

I don't know who will be better. It will come down to injuries. Draw doesn't faze me.

I like what I see with some of the Cats youngsters like Holmes, O'Sullivan, Dempsey, Neal, Humphreys and even Jye Clark. I expect Ollie Henry to rebound and I would like to see Sam de Koning recapture 2022 form.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Hawthorn trending upwards and may pass Geelong next year. Merett would have been a massive addition to a midfield that isn't at this point elite level which you need to be to match with Lions

 

[matey]

Hawthorn trending upwards and may pass Geelong next year. Merett would have been a massive addition to a midfield that isn't at this point elite level which you need to be to match with Lions

Fair enough but I’m quite optimistic even without getting Merrett. This time 2 years ago Hawks forward line and midfield wasn’t great …… Sam supported by a quality support team would never put all its eggs into the one basket. Time will tell I guess

 

[Cyclops]

Mitchell is obviously a quality coach, aspiring to be as good as Scott has been for ages.

We can debate the lists but frankly both have been able to get great footy out of some less highly regarded blokes, Blicavs and Meeks spring to mind, and Worpel will make an interesting test case.

They won't be separated by stars but maybe a melting head case might be the difference? I mean we have them too, not knocking anyone.

Loads of people have written off Scott down the years, Mitchell is quality but I think the old master will pip the younger master here.

 

[Obeanie1]

Home ground advantage? Geelong

Goal scoring power? Geelong.

Midfield quality and depth? Geelong.

Defense? Hawks

Coaching? Even.

 

[Mr Meow]

Home ground advantage? Geelong

Goal scoring power? Geelong.

Midfield quality and depth? Geelong.

Defense? Hawks

Coaching? Even.

Real home finals? Hawthorn.
Squad/VFL depth? Hawthorn.
Non-reliance on 34+ year olds? Hawthorn.

 

[SSSSSS]

Don't think either team have the quality to knock off Brisbane next year. If either team can land a Butters level talent, then watch out.

Geelong are the ultimate gate keeper of the AFL. Not good enough to be champs but they'll be there to fraud check the challengers.

We gave a good account of ourselves this year but ran out of legs.

All depends on a fit Will Day. If he plays 15+ games and is fit for finals we'll go deeper than Geelong. If he doesn't I still have it in very slight favour to the Cats.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Real home finals? Hawthorn.
Squad/VFL depth? Hawthorn.
Non-reliance on 34+ year olds? Hawthorn.

Gunston is 34

 

[Obeanie1]

Real home finals? Hawthorn.
Squad/VFL depth? Hawthorn.
Non-reliance on 34+ year olds? Hawthorn.

Home finals against non Vic teams only.
Hawks lack the superstar mid. Could be Day but can he stay on the park.
Sicily, Barrass and Gunston arent young and are key players.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Goal scoring power?

In 2025 Hawthorn had 8 players average a goal or more a game, all while missing Dear and Lewis for half a season.

Geelong had 6 averaging a goal or more a game, and weren’t really missing anyone from memory, so I don’t see how they have the better goal scoring power heading into 2026.

 

[Obeanie1]

Goal scoring power?

In 2025 Hawthorn had 8 players average a goal or more a game, all while missing Dear and Lewis for half a season.

Geelong had 6 averaging a goal or more a game, and weren’t really missing anyone from memory, so I don’t see how they have the better goal scoring power heading into 2026.

Well that obscure stat only took you two days to find.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

These show Geelong was ranked 2nd for scoring power behind the Dogs..

Hawks rated 7th.

But you not seeing it. Is totally understandable.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Well that obscure stat only took you two days to find.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

These show Geelong was ranked 2nd for scoring power behind the Dogs..

Hawks rated 7th.

But you not seeing it. Is totally understandable.

So just ignore what I actually wrote, regarding the goal scoring power of each club heading in 2026.

I guess you’re going to tell me a fit Lewis and Dear make no difference.

There’s a 0.9 difference between Geelong and Hawthorn for average goals scored in 2025, and unfortunately for Hawthorn they didn’t get to play West Coast twice.

 

[Mr Meow]

Gunston is 34

My post should've said 33.

Dangerfield, Blicavs, Stewart, Cameron. We need good games from 3 of them to beat the best teams. Is it possible for 3 big finals? It's pushing it.

 

[Mr Meow]

Goal scoring power?

In 2025 Hawthorn had 8 players average a goal or more a game, all while missing Dear and Lewis for half a season.

Geelong had 6 averaging a goal or more a game, and weren’t really missing anyone from memory, so I don’t see how they have the better goal scoring power heading into 2026.

I'm too lazy to check, but did Hawthorn actually average significantly higher scores when Lewis or Dear played? I seem to remember the Gunston/Chol axis being in full flow without them.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm too lazy to check, but did Hawthorn actually average significantly higher scores when Lewis or Dear played? I seem to remember the Gunston/Chol axis being in full flow without them.

I'm too lazy also, what I do know is that Lewis will be a different player 12 months after the reco, as he only really started to get going late this year. And Dear getting a full preseason definitely improves us, he's such a talent.

 

[MCG-Unit]

Geelong ¹

 

[bzparkes]

Should be an interesting one to watch.

Hawks didn't improve their side during the offseason like they would've liked however they should be getting Day back, which is a massive in for them. Lewis' fitness will also be one to watch. Shows a lot of promise but can't stay on the park, so if those 2 alone can play most of the year, they should fare quite well. Can Gunston back up his form from this season? At his age it's unlikely but he looked totally cooked at Brisbane before returning to the Hawks, so anything's possible.

As for Geelong, they picked up Worpel to help with their contested ball winning, howevever they ended up having an incredibly soft draw. A harder draw should push them but they've proven they're up to the challenge time and time again.

I'm going with Geelong to finish higher, just.

 

[HairyO]

All depends on Day for me once finals starts.

If he is fit I go Hawks.

If not I go Cats.

If Day returns to his best and plays every game we can easily be top 4.

But I bet any of us would love 18 regular season games including the final 6 games. But I wonder if that is wishful.

Missing out on any key mid really means we need him fully fit.

Also, we should play in Tassie more.

 

[Obeanie1]

So just ignore what I actually wrote, regarding the goal scoring power of each club heading in 2026.

I guess you’re going to tell me a fit Lewis and Dear make no difference.

There’s a 0.9 difference between Geelong and Hawthorn for average goals scored in 2025, and unfortunately for Hawthorn they didn’t get to play West Coast twice.

You mentioned more Hawks players average more than a goal a game. And?

The stat's summary I linked to had multiple indicators on scoring power, not just a minor outlier that could be interpreted either way.

How old is Gunston? Is he backing up in 2026 with anothet best ever season? At 35?

More likely he doesn't and Dear or Lewis will need to pick up and carry some of the load. So swings and round abouts.

Will both Lewis and Dear play in the same forward line with Chol plus Gunston plus another 3rd tall who played last season?

 

[timokane]

Hawks for mine out of these 2

 

[CanuckSuns]

Geelong, obviously.

 

[bradfisher14]

I think Geelong will finish higher on the ladder, but Hawthorn will progress further in finals.