Prediction Who will debut in 2018?

[Jeremias]

Who will debut in 2018 & when?

How many games will they play & why?

Started this thread last year and thought I'd do it for a bit of fun again this year.

Last year I went with SPS, McKay, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Pickett, Lebois and Macreadie.

A few misses there, most noticeably Willo who I thought we wouldn't see until 2018. Whoops.

I'm going to rule out JGM and McDaid in 2018. Jesse is a long way down the pecking order down back and I'd expect McDaid to spend this year learning the game at reserve level.

TDK probably next most likely to miss out but if he remains fit it wouldn't surprise to see him play a game or two.

 

[Soapy V]

Dow round one and about 15-20 games

Garlett round one 15-20 games

LOB round five and about 10-15 games

Kerr round eight 5-10 games

LeBois round three and 5-10 games

Schumacher Dekoning maybe late in season [emoji4]

 

[HARKER]

Who won't debut:

De Koning: Development year/years.
McDaid: Development year/years.
Schumacher: We've recently added Mullett and O'Shea. Highly unlikely for an opportunity to present.
Glass-McCasker: A total disaster would have to come about for Jesse to get games.........or a Jones-like reversal in form.

Who is likely to:

Dow obviously. Rarely does a top 5 pick not get any games in his debut year and we have a shallow midfield......so.....
O'Brien: Top ten picks generally get a run sometime through the course of the year......so.......
Kerr: Could surprise but again, it will take someone to drop off/out.

50/50:

LeBois. Wouldn't need a lot to go wrong for him to get a chance nor a lot to go right for him by way of form. We're still short of these small, pressure, goal-kicking forwards.

 

[ShanDog]

Reckon there is little doubt we'll see Down and O'Brien at some point - probably both will play a good number of games unless they run into injury issues. If I had to guess, I'd say Dow will play around 15 and O'Brien maybe 10.

The only other I think we are sure to see is Kerr. He's on the second year of his contract now (hasn't extended has he?) and I reckon if his development continues on the same track, he'll definitely earn a spot for a few games to show his wares.

 

[thylacine60]

would be a mega-bonus for kerr to really kick on

 

[Soapy V]

Who won't debut:

De Koning: Development year/years.
McDaid: Development year/years.
Schumacher: We've recently added Mullett and O'Shea.

I said similar about Willo & Polson last year when they were drafted. Willo especially change his physique significantly by Rd One.

Be very interesting to see what they look like come the JLT. At this stage I’m not ruling anyone out.

 

[Soapy V]

would be a mega-bonus for kerr to really kick on

I’m not convinced yet but he impressed me last year. Thought he might be a bit one dimensional but showed a bit more. If anything I thought he was better than McKay in most games

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Kerr, Dow and O’Brien to make their AFL debuts and play 5, 9 and 9 games respectively. Kerr when Harry needs a break, and Dow and O’Brien to get blocks of 3-4 games each and remain eligible for the Rising Star in 2019

Schumacher next, but I think he will debut in 2019. TDK, McDaid and a JGM to play VFL for the season.

Garlett, Lang, Kennedy and Mullett to make their Carlton debuts and play 15, 18, 20 and 6 games respectively. Mullett more as a rotation for sore kids, etc., Garlett I think will push out Wright ...

O’Shea and Shaw may get a couple of games each if injuries hit ...

 

[HARKER]

Kerr, Dow and O’Brien to make their AFL debuts and play 5, 9 and 9 games respectively. Kerr when Harry needs a break, and Dow and O’Brien to get blocks of 3-4 games each and remain eligible for the Rising Star in 2019
Schumacher next, but I think he will debut in 2019. TDK, McDaid and a JGM to play VFL for the season.
Garlett, Lang, Kennedy and Mullett to make their Carlton debuts and play 15, 18, 20 and 6 games respectively. Mullett more as a rotation for sore kids, etc., Garlett I think will push out Wright ...

O’Shea and Shaw may get a couple of games each if injuries hit ...

That's all reasonable and much more likely we'll be getting games into the four you mentioned above.

I'd like for us not to be forced into playing 40 players next year. Playing 32-35 could/would/should make for a very good year for the club.
40 players would tell us that we either have many injured or have several players from our best 22 in poor form..........and regardless for the thirst of playing first year players, that would not make for a good outcome for us.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Won

That's all reasonable and much more likely we'll be getting games into the four you mentioned above.

I'd like for us not to be forced into playing 40 players next year. Playing 32-35 could/would/should make for a very good year for the club.
40 players would tell us that we either have many injured or have several players from our best 22 in poor form..........and regardless for the thirst of playing first year players, that would not make for a good outcome for us.

The 5 ... TDK, Schumacher, Thomas, Rowe, Docherty.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Dow - certainty barring injury. Too much class not to play at least 15 games.

O'Brien - need the kicking skills and tank and we don't have a heap of outside run to keep him out. At least 12 games.

Kerr - showed signs late last year. I see us blooding him if he plays well in JLT or strings a good month together in the VFL. 6 games.

Others:

Schumacher - only impressive VFL form will see him leapfrog harder bodies or perhaps a terrible season from the team seeing us play everyone for development.

De Koning - A small chance with injuries. I'd rather a development year.

JGM - A mile behind. Can't see a realistic scenario where he will get games. Needs a huge year to stay on the list.

 

[BlueGum]

^^^ same for me
(Copy cat dirty rat)

 

[HalAlaric]

I believe:
Dow & O'Brien will play b/w 5-10 games.
Lebois, Schumacher, Kerr will play 3-5 games.
McDaid & JGM to play 1-3 games towards the back end of he season.
and De Koning to sit out and develop his craft at VFL level.
All of this is speculative though and based on predictive injuries which I hope are extremely low this year

 

[thylacine60]

not sure I get this concept of a player sitting in the reserves for a year or two to hone his craft - 1. I don't think it's a good place to develop 2. If he can play, give him a taste and more 3. Aside from big blokes has this produced much fruit for us in the past?

 

[gandaal]

not sure I get this concept of a player sitting in the reserves for a year or two to hone his craft - 1. I don't think it's a good place to develop 2. If he can play, give him a taste and more 3. Aside from big blokes has this produced much fruit for us in the past?

I stand to be corrected but I think the last player to spend a lot of time developing in the VFL before making it in the seniors at Carlton was Michael Jamison.

 

[AceAndy]

not sure I get this concept of a player sitting in the reserves for a year or two to hone his craft - 1. I don't think it's a good place to develop 2. If he can play, give him a taste and more 3. Aside from big blokes has this produced much fruit for us in the past?

The idea of a year or two playing in the twos has certainly gone out of fashion. Thinking back thirty years ago Michael Tuck played two years in the reserves (i think ) before playing about 800 games for the Hawks (well closer to just over 400).

These days mid-fielders seem to be ready straight from the draft.

 

[HalAlaric]

not sure I get this concept of a player sitting in the reserves for a year or two to hone his craft - 1. I don't think it's a good place to develop 2. If he can play, give him a taste and more 3. Aside from big blokes has this produced much fruit for us in the past?

I strongly believe we are following more of a Hawthorn model and not rushing players but to answer your points for the sake of good argument.
1) VFL sides that are competing well and aiming for a Grand Final are definitely good for development. It's a further stage to add competitiveness and a winning culture at the club. Not everyone can make it into the senior 22 and with good role models and leadership there is nothing to suggest a player does not benefit from playing at VFL level. Now if you were to argue against the benefits of playing AFL games in comparison to VFL ones then I would completely agree, but unfortunately you seem to look highly negatively on Northern's development.
2) I completely agree with you on this one Thy and rightfully so. If a kid can play at that grade then he should be allowed. As above, the more he plays at AFL level the quicker he will adjust to that intensity of game play and therefore improve. Not everyone that is drafted a ready-made AFL player though and at times a young player can put their body under too much duress which can act negatively and hamper their progress.
3) I'm not too sure how to reply to this comment as I cannot see too many examples of even big blokes coming up through those ranks. We can all admit, I am sure, that the development programs haven't been of the same level in the past as that of other clubs. I don't know that for a fact but it is my opinion. We seem to have made huge in roads though in that regard by the coaches and support staff we have hired so hopefully we are on the right path.
If you still wish for some fruit how about Kade Simpson who played predominately for Northern in his first 2 seasons at the club, and on his few selections in the Carlton senior team, received so little ground time that he did not have a disposal in his first three games. It was his fourth season I believe that he took his big leap into our seniors.

 

[thylacine60]

Quality response right there.

 

[Soapy V]

I strongly believe we are following more of a Hawthorn model and not rushing players but to answer your points for the sake of good argument.

The Hawthorn side of the 80's? The Hawthorn of the 2000's threw them straight in

 

[HalAlaric]

The Hawthorn side of the 80's? The Hawthorn of the 2000's threw them straight in

I wasn't suggesting either actually as I meant the more modern day mold 2010's+. Sicily played 0 games in his 1st year and only 3 the next. Bruest didn't play a game of seniors in his first 2 years. Langford played 1 game in 3 years. Gunston play only 2 in his first year. I guess every team can be seen to hold back on a few players due to rotations in their list and the teams list strategy but I seem to recall Hawthorn developing a wealth of depth at Box Hill for many years.

 

[Soapy V]

I wasn't suggesting either actually as I meant the more modern day mold 2010's+. Sicily played 0 games in his 1st year and only 3 the next. Bruest didn't play a game of seniors in his first 2 years. Langford played 1 game in 3 years. Gunston play only 2 in his first year. I guess every team can be seen to hold back on a few players due to rotations in their list and the teams list strategy but I seem to recall Hawthorn developing a wealth of depth at Box Hill for many years.

Agree. There will be players who step straight in and some will need time in two's. Important that we have a good two's side and that is why we have recruited O'Shea Shaw Lobbe etc.

All positive

 

[HalAlaric]

In terms of players taking some time how can we forget Eddie Curnow who was drafted to the AFL by the Adelaide Football Club with its third selection in the 2008 AFL Rookie Draft (#40 overall), however he did not play a senior game for the Crows. He spent the 2008 season playing with Glenelg, his allocated SANFL club, and was delisted by the Crows after one season.
Upon returning to Victoria, he signed up with Box Hill in the VFL. Curnow's 2009 season was solid, but his 2010 season was exceptional, and he was consistently Box Hill's best player. His season was cut short when he broke his leg in Round 13, missing the Hawks' last eight games; nevertheless, he had already polled enough votes to win the Box Hill best and fairest (the Col Austen Trophy), and he finished third in the J. J. Liston Trophy, after holding a comfortable lead at the time of his injury. Curnow played a total of 33 senior games for Box Hill during his two years at the club, and also played one representative game for the VFL.
Following his successful VFL season, Curnow was recruited back to the AFL by the Carlton Football Club with its first selection in the 2011 AFL Rookie Draft (No. 18 overall). He was given guernsey number 35. After impressing in the pre-season, Curnow became the club's nominated rookie, and he made his debut for the Blues in the club's first round match. The rest as they say is history.

 

[Soapy V]

In terms of players taking some time how can we forget Eddie Curnow who was drafted to the AFL by the Adelaide Football Club with its third selection in the 2008 AFL Rookie Draft (#40 overall), however he did not play a senior game for the Crows. He spent the 2008 season playing with Glenelg, his allocated SANFL club, and was delisted by the Crows after one season.
Upon returning to Victoria, he signed up with Box Hill in the VFL. Curnow's 2009 season was solid, but his 2010 season was exceptional, and he was consistently Box Hill's best player. His season was cut short when he broke his leg in Round 13, missing the Hawks' last eight games; nevertheless, he had already polled enough votes to win the Box Hill best and fairest (the Col Austen Trophy), and he finished third in the J. J. Liston Trophy, after holding a comfortable lead at the time of his injury. Curnow played a total of 33 senior games for Box Hill during his two years at the club, and also played one representative game for the VFL.
Following his successful VFL season, Curnow was recruited back to the AFL by the Carlton Football Club with its first selection in the 2011 AFL Rookie Draft (No. 18 overall). He was given guernsey number 35. After impressing in the pre-season, Curnow became the club's nominated rookie, and he made his debut for the Blues in the club's first round match. The rest as they say is history.

That's what people need to remember. We have kids like SPS Weitering Charlie Williamson who have been able to step in nearly straight away and play. Others like Polson Cuningham McKay Macreadie for whatever reasons haven't and need a bit more time. Certainly doesn't mean they aren't going to be as good if not better

 

[Blue Doormat]

WhT I'd like to see is a Hawthorn/Geelong model where players serve an apprenticeship with Northern with an expectation that they will grow and hone their game such that they can step straight in when people go down.

I think we are developing a list where that is possible. Players like JGM, TDK, McDaid, Schumaker and Lebois will benefit from this and have greater chance of success at AFL level because of this patient approach.

FWIW
my debutants
Dow 12-16 games (round 1)
Garlett 15 (5)
Schumacher 5 (10)
Kerr 5 (14)
LOB 2-3 (16)

 

[thylacine60]

And we also know there are absolute stars who originally played lots of seconds footy. Dippa (99 reserves games) comes to mind. Bloke wins a Brownlow. I'm still not convinced the NB setup is much chop. Don't mind Fraser but we've played some toilet footy the last few years.