Prediction Who will finish higher in 2019 - Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood or Melbourne?

[juss]

This thread should therefore be empty because we can't or shouldn't be using results from 2018 to predict what will happen next year?

There will always be risers and fallers every year. Using 2017 results Collingwood, Melbourne and West Coast probably wouldn't have been tipped to be as good as they were, nor Adelaide miss finals. Will be an interesting year and someone is bound to come from the blue and shoot into the top 4 or top 6 and be a surprise contender. It happens every year.

 

[Marcel Proust]

There will always be risers and fallers every year. Using 2017 results Collingwood, Melbourne and West Coast probably wouldn't have been tipped to be as good as they were, nor Adelaide miss finals. Will be an interesting year and someone is bound to come from the blue and shoot into the top 4 or top 6 and be a surprise contender. It happens every year.

It is interesting Pies fans want to use the prelim as an indication to next years season. Not book makers odds, not home and away ladder standings..

tbf they played well and won the game

Looks like being a close season with a lot of teams eyeing off the cup. Will be tough for Bucks and his guys to replicate last season - I would personally say Melbourne and WCe have stronger lists

 

[Football Tragic]

I think West Coast will be up there again in the Top 4. I think one of GWS, Richmond or Melbourne will be their main opposition.

West Coast have the twin towers who will trouble most teams again next year and their backline in a well oiled machine. They do struggle with pressure and if their talls are nullified they struggle getting the ball into their forwadline from the wings and HF. Their midfield is under rated and their system well drilled. I expect them to be there abouts again.

Melbourne's strength is in their contested work and their midfielders grind out wins. Against the midfields that spread and race away from stoppages, they struggle but I think they will improve again after shoring up their backline with May.

I really can't see Collingwood finishing in the Top 4 in 2019. They have proven they struggle again the top teams (1-6 record) and will need to play these teams in their double up games in 2019. If they have another incredible finals series they may contend again but I can't see it happening given their backline and over reliance on De Goey in their forwardline (Cox had one good game for the season against my mob - unlikely to occur again). Beams gives them more quality depth into an area they already had quality depth in. They needs defenders and another tall mobile forward. I think they'll start the year off well but fall away after mid-year.

GWS is the forgotten power in this conversation. Injures really have cruelled this team. They have so much talent but have lacked the maturity and time to gel as a core unit. I think they have improved their game plan too to be more defensive which was the one area their stars struggled with in other years. This year they are more mature, more settled, more driven. They have less expectation and with a better run of injures, out of all years, I feel this is their year to shine.

The Tigers are still the team to beat. The only slights on them are 1)They never had a chance to play the Eagles at the 'G and prove themselves against the eventual premiers, 2) Collingwood beat them when it mattered (yes I know it was only one game and gastro and Dusty's unjury and etc etc but lucks a fortune and Collingwood made the most of their opportunity) & 3) they have been lucky with injuries for the last two years. I think they have lost nothing on last year but filled a huge missing piece - a talent 2nd tall. I don't think Richmond will necessarily begin the year off well (perhaps 7-5) as they get used to the tweak to their forwardline structure but nothing else will really change other than their depth/quality/flexibility across the ground will improve. Lynch's arrival will mean Dusty will spend more time int he midfield - a scary prospect for most opposition.

Essendon and/or Brisbane may do the unthinkable and leap into the Top 4 too - wouldn't that ruffle some feathers!

 

[bzparkes]

The Tigers are still the team to beat. The only slights on them are 1)They never had a chance to play the Eagles at the 'G and prove themselves against the eventual premiers, 2)

That's because it's a national competition. If Tigers 'were the team to beat' they wouldn't have capitulated playing interstate and surely would've wanted tp make a statement against a team in red hot form at home.

 

[Marcel Proust]

That's because it's a national competition. If Tigers 'were the team to beat' they wouldn't have capitulated playing interstate and surely would've wanted tp make a statement against a team in red hot form at home.

Its a comp where the grand final is at Richmonds home ground every year. If they keep winning at the 'g it should be fine

 

[captain blood 17]

Nice attempt, but you need to look a bit harder.

If a GF team is belted, they can tend to fall away...

But what happens to teams who lose GFs by a kick?

Hawks in 2012, they went on to win three in a row
Saints in 09, they played off in GF again the following year
Syd v WC 05, they played off again in 2006 with WC winning
Pies 02, they played off again in 03

It appears that if you lose a close GF you tend to back it up and be contending again the following year.

What happens to minor premiers who are exposed and lose a PF on their own deck?? Freo were the team before the Tigers to do this back in 2015, and in 2016 they finished bottom four!

That would be very Richmondy!

When we make GF’s we win them. That’s Richmondy.


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[Catsnlakers]

Its a comp where the grand final is at Richmonds home ground every year. If they keep winning at the 'g it should be fine

That statement holds true only if you finish top 2 ( which still didn't help this year ) or if the entire top 4 is Victorian teams.....Otherwise needing to win interstate will be a requirement!....And with the strength of the reigning premiers only getting better with the return's of Gaff, Shepherd & Nic Nat, you can pretty much say they're the favourites to finish top!...IMO anyway.

 

[WillHayward]

I honestly believe Melbourne can win the flag if they get a good run at it (injury wise).

 

[Catsnlakers]

When we make GF’s we win them. That’s Richmondy.


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That's funny, because i'm pretty sure your club has lost as many GF's as you've won!..... Feel free to publish your club's history in GF's to prove "When we make GF's we win them".....Only the Hawks as a club can trot that line out ( bastards ) lol....On topic, the Tigers lack depth & won't finish as high as the Pies & Eagles.

 

[Hannabal]

I honestly believe Melbourne can win the flag if they get a good run at it (injury wise).

Three things need to happen.

1. A decent run with injuries to our better players. We need Viney playing 20+ games and other key players avoiding the injury curse.

2. It's now time for Petracca to take his game to a new level. He's got 60 odd games under his belt and has the talent to start dominating quarters and whole games. It would make a huge difference. He needs to be kicking 35+ goals, as well as impacting in the midfield.

3. Weideman to improve upon his last 5 weeks. There are those within the club who think he can be as good or even better than Hogan - without the off-field issues. He's a different type to Hogan, but just as important to our fortunes.

If these things happen, combined with natural maturation and improvement within the list, they're capable of going all the way.

I'm more confident about 2020 and beyond, but it's not out of the question for 2019.

 

[Hannabal]

That's funny, because i'm pretty sure your club has lost as many GF's as you've won!..... Feel free to publish your club's history in GF's to prove "When we make GF's we win them".....Only the Hawks as a club can trot that line out ( bastards ) lol....On topic, the Tigers lack depth & won't finish as high as the Pies & Eagles.

Melbourne have won one less than Hawthorn, but have a higher winning percentage (just).

If only we get more opportunities.

 

[bzparkes]

Its a comp where the grand final is at Richmonds home ground every year. If they keep winning at the 'g it should be fine

Good thing for us that Optus is nearly the same size, team said it helped immeasurably in winning the premiership.

We beat Collingwood twice there who play a very similar gameplan and carved Richmond up at home. Our gameplan was the outlier of the top 4 this year and proved it is good enough tp beat those 3 teams.

 

[HTT]

I honestly believe Melbourne can win the flag if they get a good run at it (injury wise).

Absolutely. They feel to me as though they have the greatest scope for improvement. The other 3 are relying mainly on individual players (traded in, returning, or developing) to improve, with the bulk of the list likely to play at a similar level as 2018, while Dees have an entire squad looking to gel a bit more and improve together. They kind of feel a bit like GWS after 2016, a big improver with most players about to come into their prime. Will be contenders for a while.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Melbourne have won one less than Hawthorn, but have a higher winning percentage (just).

If only we get more opportunities.

True 12-5 is a great % ratio.....Alot better than my club's & the Tigers who basically go dead 50/50.....And on the oppurtunities, I hope for the long suffering fans you do get a chance to experience winning one ( believe me it's worth it ).... I personally can't see it next year, but from 2020 I think you're as good of a shot as anyone else!

 

[Hannabal]

True 12-5 is a great % ratio.....Alot better than my club's & the Tigers who basically go dead 50/50.....And on the oppurtunities, I hope for the long suffering fans you do get a chance to experience winning one ( believe me it's worth it ).... I personally can't see it next year, but from 2020 I think you're as good of a shot as anyone else!

12-1-5 (18) for 69.44%.

Other mob 13-0-6 (19) for 68.42%.

Agree re 2020.

 

[Catsnlakers]

12-1-5 (18) for 69.44%.

Other mob 13-0-6 (19) for 68.42%.

Agree re 2020.

Good stuff!.... You're right in adding the draw .....Back on topic, one more year of tough finals footy will have you primed I think...I see great similarities with my club in 04/05, & also the Pies from 07-09....Just another year at least of good H&A wins, as well as another final's campaign, then injury permitting, destiny awaits!

 

[captain blood 17]

That's funny, because i'm pretty sure your club has lost as many GF's as you've won!..... Feel free to publish your club's history in GF's to prove "When we make GF's we win them".....Only the Hawks as a club can trot that line out ( bastards ) lol....On topic, the Tigers lack depth & won't finish as high as the Pies & Eagles.

You’re only as good as your last grand final effort. Pies s**t the bed (again).
Tiges have very good depth. You’ll see. But also remember, we don’t get injuries.


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[juss]

Good thing for us that Optus is nearly the same size, team said it helped immeasurably in winning the premiership.

We beat Collingwood twice there who play a very similar gameplan and carved Richmond up at home. Our gameplan was the outlier of the top 4 this year and proved it is good enough tp beat those 3 teams.

Richmond vs West Coast at the G a bit of an unknown. Would have been a great game, either side could have got up, we will never know. West Coast certainly showed they are now capable at the ground, largely due to Optus.

 

[bzparkes]

Richmond vs West Coast at the G a bit of an unknown. Would have been a great game, either side could have got up, we will never know. West Coast certainly showed they are now capable at the ground, largely due to Optus.

Guess we'll find out next season when we play the Tigers there. We shat the bed last time we played them there in a game we really should've won but that wasn't the only game where that occurred that season. Beating Collingwood twice in one year at a venue we haven't beaten them at since '96 will give the current crop confidence they can beat anyone there.

Should be a good game though regardless of result.

 

[juss]

Guess we'll find out next season when we play the Tigers there. We shat the bed last time we played them there in a game we really should've won but that wasn't the only game where that occurred that season. Beating Collingwood twice in one year at a venue we haven't beaten them at since '96 will give the current crop confidence they can beat anyone there.

Should be a good game though regardless of result.

Should be a good season.

 

[ToddaRools]

When we make GF’s we win them. That’s Richmondy.


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So your happy with one acceptable result every 30 years?


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[Carringbush2010]

They do struggle with pressure

No they don't, they were the only team to break the pressure systems of Coll, Rich and Melb comprehensively. The QF and the Melb games in Perth being the outliers

They have proven they struggle again the top teams (1-6 record)

That's very simplistic, Coll were able to defeat form teams coming off wins and winning streaks consistently, to use ladder positions of their opponents they beat is ignoring that teams form previously to losing to the Pies. Ess, Dees and North are examples I can think of off the top of my head.

 

[Dr Tigris]

All 4 teams have genuine reasons to see themselves as contenders. Plus GWS is they stay fit and learnt to play ugly (which they did a bit in 2018) they could easily go all the way.

Tigers - Probably better squad than 2018 where they were easily the best H&A team. Tweak the finals preparation and get Tom Lynch to gel and - what's not to like.
Eagles - Should be stronger next year what 3 really good players back. Wow!
Pies - Should have a stronger midfield if Beams is fit. But still have the forward and back line problems. If teams can go to town on their structures etc they might find it hard. But if you win the midfield then you'll tend to win lots of games. And they have probably the best midfield in the league. So likely to be contending and if they can make they strange squad dynamics work then they could easily win it all.
Demons - Only real issue is inexperience in winning finals. But then the last 3 premiers have been similar. So I cannot see any reason for Melbourne fans not to be excited. Probably my most likely to mot actually be there last in September. But I wouldn't be surprised if they go all the way.


Pretty awesome look for 2019. I have 5 teams as genuine title shots, with a few others being quality finalists. Looking like another good year

 

[Gone Critical]

Both

We played poorly. Collingwood also played very well. If we'd played to our potential I'd have given us about a 50% chance of winning i.e. Collingwood's game was at least as good as our absolute best. That assumes a) we brought some sort of midfield pressure as opposed to simply allowing them to stream out, and b) we'd played Garthwaite instead of Astbury, which was a clear selection blunder.
We didn't play the peaking game well. We tried to manage ourselves into finals but ended up playing ourselves out of form. This contrasts to 2017 where we played our best footy at the right time of year. If we've learnt anything, we won't be anywhere near as dominant in the H&A in 2019 as we were this year. We'll experiment with our side more and be more confident in our back up should issues arise in finals. It was a bit stiff that Astbury and Dusty were clearly not 100% but we had to be able to deal with that. s**t happens sometimes.
.

Collingwood had a night out in the Prelim but i cant make a case that that puts us past Richmond. With the addition of Lynch I would have the Tiges favorites in 2019 and the Pies need to step up from 2018 where we were flattered a bit by a kind draw to be a top 4 team. Of the 4 teams mentioned in the thread I believe Collingwood will need more improvement that the others to maintain top 4. We still have clear holes in the list.

I don't quite agree with the Collingwood 11-12 comparison. We haven't caused unrest by moving our coach on. It's pretty clear we won't be upsetting our formula a la Buckley with the 'rat pack'.

I didn't really believe the coach unrest was the main reason behind our fall after 2012. The team had a long time at the top already and were naturally coming down the other side. From 2006 to 2013 Pies played in 8 finals series in a row, finished top 4 5 out of 6 seasons (07, 09-12) played in 2 GFs for 1 flag. By late 2011 the hawks were already past us, we got lucky in the PF, and that team had run its race.

Buckley did really well in 2012 given his 1st pre season was decimated by injury. We entered round 1 that season with 7 missing from the GF team of 2011. Replaced by 3 debutants (Yagmoor, Paine , Seedsman) 3 who had played < 5 games each( Rounds, Keefe, Sinclair) and Marty Clarke back after 2 years in Ireland. We struggled early then Buckley got them going to win 10 in a row and be on top. More injuries and Jmacs passing derailed the rest of the season but we still made a prelim. Doubt MM would have done any better.

Richmond of 2017-19 are earlier in their trajectory that the Pies of 10-12 so should be better placed to stay up a while.

 

[HTT]

Collingwood had a night out in the Prelim but i cant make a case that that puts us past Richmond. With the addition of Lynch I would have the Tiges favorites in 2019 and the Pies need to step up from 2018 where we were flattered a bit by a kind draw to be a top 4 team. Of the 4 teams mentioned in the thread I believe Collingwood will need more improvement that the others to maintain top 4. We still have clear holes in the list.



I didn't really believe the coach unrest was the main reason behind our fall after 2012. The team had a long time at the top already and were naturally coming down the other side. From 2006 to 2013 Pies played in 8 finals series in a row, finished top 4 5 out of 6 seasons (07, 09-12) played in 2 GFs for 1 flag. By late 2011 the hawks were already past us, we got lucky in the PF, and that team had run its race.

Buckley did really well in 2012 given his 1st pre season was decimated by injury. We entered round 1 that season with 7 missing from the GF team of 2011. Replaced by 3 debutants (Yagmoor, Paine , Seedsman) 3 who had played < 5 games each( Rounds, Keefe, Sinclair) and Marty Clarke back after 2 years in Ireland. We struggled early then Buckley got them going to win 10 in a row and be on top. More injuries and Jmacs passing derailed the rest of the season but we still made a prelim. Doubt MM would have done any better.

Richmond of 2017-19 are earlier in their trajectory that the Pies of 10-12 so should be better placed to stay up a while.

I personally feel the 'soft draw' is a little overdone. I think I made a post earlier where I commented the obviously tough draw Collingwood has might cost a win, especially if the more constant tough contests take their toll on the players, but that's about all there is to it. Similar comments were made about us and we went 18-4. The pies improved across the year, at the start of the year, they probably weren't playing at a top 4 standard, perhaps not even a top 8 standard. That's just conjecture though. I know for certain that in order to make a GF you have to beat top 4 and top 8 opposition. If the pies really weren't good enough, they'd have been exposed for it in one of their finals. They weren't.