Prediction Who will finish higher - Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide or Hawthorn

Who finishes higher in 2019?


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Can someone sell Essendon's list for me? I feel like I am missing something as I don't believe the hype is well worth getting behind.
EDIT: I've only really followed the list management side of footy for the past year or so, so maybe the memories of the ASADA-ban side is still lingering in my judgement.
 

Man0gwaR74

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Can someone sell Essendon's list for me? I feel like I am missing something as I don't believe the hype is well worth getting behind.
EDIT: I've only really followed the list management side of footy for the past year or so, so maybe the memories of the ASADA-ban side is still lingering in my judgement.
I predicted the Dees to go all the way at the start of last season but after some of the horrible performances shown in 2018, I'm going against them unifying as a team and going with the Bombers, who welcome back Joe Daniher and gaining some desperately needed extra grunt with Shiel in the engine room! Aaron Francis is starting to look the goods as a key post and pick #6 midfielder Darcy Parish is into his 4th year of development with pick #1 mid Andrew McGrath into his 3rd. I think these guys are gonna make a statement this year!
 
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blitzer

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Covering for Mitchell is going to be a massive challenge. Hawks ranked pretty poorly in contested possessions anyway in 2018 and that was despite the overall dominance of Mitchell in there. Maybe they'll have Wingard try his hand on the inside. Either way its hard not to see this injury being the difference between finals and not. Teams will be able to just tag one of Wingard / O'Meara and they simply don't run that deep in that area.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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Covering for Mitchell is going to be a massive challenge. Hawks ranked pretty poorly in contested possessions anyway in 2018 and that was despite the overall dominance of Mitchell in there. Maybe they'll have Wingard try his hand on the inside. Either way its hard not to see this injury being the difference between finals and not. Teams will be able to just tag one of Wingard / O'Meara and they simply don't run that deep in that area.
Many teams wont tag O'meara and Wingard. Pretty sure we wont, we generally want to go head to head. I'm not so confident about your lot, but from what I've seen I doubt the Bombers will either.
 
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I predicted the Dees to go all the way at the start of last season but after some of the horrible performances shown in 2018, I'm going against them unifying as a team and going with the Bombers, who welcome back Joe Daniher and gaining some desperately needed extra grunt with Shiel in the engine room! Aaron Francis is starting to look the goods as a key post and pick #6 midfielder Darcy Parish is into his 4th year of development with pick #1 mid Andrew McGrath into his 3rd. I think these guys are gonna make a statement this year!

Horrible results? You realise Melbourne finished 4th right? The Dees only lost 4 games for the season by more than 10 points & now that the playing list has so many players in the 50-100 game mark you'd expect the Dees to start gaining the experience to turn the close losses into wins like the Hawks more often that not do. Yes we got belted in those 4 games but I'm pretty sure the Prelim was the only game we were belted in after RD 12. Essendon had a few horrible results along the way as well last season.
Picking an inexperienced side who hadn't made the finals for 12 years to win the premiership is a ridiculous prediction & after exceeding most peoples expectations you expect them to fall apart?
 

Man0gwaR74

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OK lemme break this down for you special needs supporters...
Horrible results?
after some of the horrible performances shown in 2018
You realise Melbourne finished 4th right? The Dees only lost 4 games for the season by more than 10 points & now that the playing list has so many players in the 50-100 game mark you'd expect the Dees to start gaining the experience to turn the close losses into wins like the Hawks more often that not do. Yes we got belted in those 4 games but I'm pretty sure the Prelim was the only game we were belted in after RD 12. Essendon had a few horrible results along the way as well last season.
Some of those performances last season were enough to show me that they haven't unified as a team and playing a couple of decent games in the finals, isn't enough to dispel those inconsistencies for my mind.
Picking an inexperienced side who hadn't made the finals for 12 years to win the premiership is a ridiculous prediction & after exceeding most peoples expectations you expect them to fall apart?
Hello?!? 2016 Doggies?!? >>>The Dees also have the coach that helped to bring that about in Brendan McCartney for the Doggies and he also helped to bring about that golden era for the Cats as defensive and development coach in 2007 and 2009!
 
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Isaac Cumming No 1

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OK lemme break this down for you special needs supporters...



Some of those performances last season were enough to show me that they haven't unified as a team and playing a couple of decent games in the finals, isn't enough to dispel those inconsistencies for my mind.

Hello?!? 2016 Doggies >>>The Dees also have the coach that helped to bring that about in Brendan McCartney for the Doggies and he also helped to bring about that golden era for the Cats as defensive and development coach in 2007 and 2009!
This post is an early contender for most nonsensical of the year even though it's early January.

The Bulldogs were not finals virgins in 2016, as the Demons were last year.

The Demons did show mental toughness in firstly locking in finals when things looked shaky, and then winning two very well.

The rest belongs on the Bulldogs board where I'm sure you can find people to share your delusion. It's certainly not relevant to this thread.
 

blitzer

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Many teams wont tag O'meara and Wingard. Pretty sure we wont, we generally want to go head to head. I'm not so confident about your lot, but from what I've seen I doubt the Bombers will either.

That's true there are a few sides that don't tend to use taggers but majority of sides use them. Essendon didn't really tag in 2018 but I see that as the exception rather than the rule and even we liked to play guys like Myers on some of the better opposition inside mids in an accountable role. Certainly I'd say most teams playing us had a tagger go to Merrett pretty much every week with a few exceptions. I actually could see Essendon changing their opinion on tagging with guys like Guelfi or Clarke (if he can crack the 22) being potential options.

The more a team relies on 1 or 2 players to perform a large portion of their teams requirements in a certain area, the more defensive attention that player is going to get. So to me Hawks vulnerability in the ball winning stakes is going to lure taggers in. One thing that might help though is the sheer running power of Smith and Scully together, might force some teams to tag one of them instead.
 

Man0gwaR74

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This post is an early contender for most nonsensical of the year even though it's early January.
The Bulldogs were not finals virgins in 2016, as the Demons were last year.
The Demons did show mental toughness in firstly locking in finals when things looked shaky, and then winning two very well.
The rest belongs on the Bulldogs board where I'm sure you can find people to share your delusion. It's certainly not relevant to this thread.
OK then when Bombers finish above Dees at the end of this season, then we'll know who's delusional!
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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That's true there are a few sides that don't tend to use taggers but majority of sides use them. Essendon didn't really tag in 2018 but I see that as the exception rather than the rule and even we liked to play guys like Myers on some of the better opposition inside mids in an accountable role. Certainly I'd say most teams playing us had a tagger go to Merrett pretty much every week with a few exceptions. I actually could see Essendon changing their opinion on tagging with guys like Guelfi or Clarke (if he can crack the 22) being potential options.

The more a team relies on 1 or 2 players to perform a large portion of their teams requirements in a certain area, the more defensive attention that player is going to get. So to me Hawks vulnerability in the ball winning stakes is going to lure taggers in. One thing that might help though is the sheer running power of Smith and Scully together, might force some teams to tag one of them instead.
There's logic in what you say. It's never an absolute. Difficult to second guess the tacticians as a supporter, given the time and data they have at their disposal.

I doubt anyone puts a hard tag on Scully though. He'd run them into the ground pretty quick, and his legspeed would make it difficult to tag team him.

Teams used to tag Shiel for us a lot, but less recently. I think players learn how to cope as they mature. Wingard should be in that category.
 

TallyHawk

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It’s not that simple in a 22 man team sport. Last time Hawks lost their best player the year after they won a premiership!

No doubt Tom will be missed but Clarko and the coaching staff will plan life without him this year and who knows it may significantly work well.

On the flip side we struggled when Roughy snapped his Achilles.

Clarko did raise concerns that it wasn't ideal to have Tom dominating in the square, he was desperate to shoulder the load. This forces the issue.

Backs to the wall, you would think these other clubs might sneak in front.


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Mitchell’s injury is a huge blow but will still finish above Essendon without dramas.
You seem to have an over-inflated perspective on Hawthorn's list young fella.

Market for Essendon to make the top 8 is currently $1.60..... and Hawthorn is $2.44.

Screen Shot 2019-01-13 at 3.22.14 pm.png
 
You seem to have an over-inflated perspective on Hawthorn's list young fella.

Market for Essendon to make the top 8 is currently $1.60..... and Hawthorn is $2.44.

View attachment 604537

Ohhh yep my bad sorry dude didn’t see the bookies had Essendon to finish above us, I’ll have to reasses.
Let’s see how the season pans out hey, Essendon will continue to be trash.
 
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There's logic in what you say. It's never an absolute. Difficult to second guess the tacticians as a supporter, given the time and data they have at their disposal.

I doubt anyone puts a hard tag on Scully though. He'd run them into the ground pretty quick, and his legspeed would make it difficult to tag team him.

Teams used to tag Shiel for us a lot, but less recently. I think players learn how to cope as they mature. Wingard should be in that category.

Has Wingard ever been actively tagged? Not sure how he'd go with an inside role and close attention, he's not really that kind of player.

The best way to cut out the outside runners like Smith and Scully is just stop them getting the ball, I'd have thought you'd be better off sitting on whichever of Shiels, O'Meara or Wingard are on-ball at the time. I'm also not confident Wingard can play the full-time midfield role the way Mitchell would anyway, Wingard is very explosive and dynamic, whilst Mitchell is very much a first-touch inside midfielder.

I don't know the depth players on the Hawks list well enough to know if there's younger guys that could step up to fill that role, but the amount of time Mitchell was on-ground playing on-ball means you're unlikely to have a single player replacing him regardless.
 

emblurr

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Good template to use for any of the teams.

I predicted the <Team1> to go all the way at the start of last season but after some of the horrible performances shown in 2018, I'm going against them unifying as a team and going with the <Team1>, who welcome back <Player1> and gaining some desperately needed extra grunt with <Player2> in the engine room! <Player3> is starting to look the goods as a key post and pick #. <Player4> is into his # year of development with pick #. <Player 5> into his #. I think these guys are gonna make a statement this year!
 

Hannabal

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Has Wingard ever been actively tagged? Not sure how he'd go with an inside role and close attention, he's not really that kind of player.

The best way to cut out the outside runners like Smith and Scully is just stop them getting the ball, I'd have thought you'd be better off sitting on whichever of Shiels, O'Meara or Wingard are on-ball at the time. I'm also not confident Wingard can play the full-time midfield role the way Mitchell would anyway, Wingard is very explosive and dynamic, whilst Mitchell is very much a first-touch inside midfielder.

I don't know the depth players on the Hawks list well enough to know if there's younger guys that could step up to fill that role, but the amount of time Mitchell was on-ground playing on-ball means you're unlikely to have a single player replacing him regardless.
I doubt he's been tagged in the midfield, but when he's played as a small forward against Melbourne Jetta has played on him.

He's made mince meat of him. Probably why he has his worst record against Melbourne even though we've been a pile of crap much of the time he's played us.

Chad Wingard Against Opposition Teams
MT Versus K Avg H Avg D Avg M Avg HO Avg T Avg FF FA G Avg B SC Rat Avg
6 St Kilda 71 11.8 58 9.7 129 21.5 29 4.8 1 0.2 24 4 8 0 12 2 5 77 598 99.7
8 Richmond 105 13.1 76 9.5 181 22.6 36 4.5 0 0 28 3.5 6 5 9 1.1 10 64 742 92.8
9 West Coast 117 13 70 7.8 187 20.8 42 4.7 1 0.1 24 2.7 8 4 13 1.4 9 87 797 88.6
9 Western Bulldogs 118 13.1 63 7 181 20.1 29 3.2 1 0.1 34 3.8 7 3 12 1.3 8 80 782 86.9
9 Carlton 105 11.7 61 6.8 166 18.4 33 3.7 2 0.2 36 4 5 8 16 1.8 10 106 769 85.4
8 Brisbane Lions 103 12.9 73 9.1 176 22 22 2.8 1 0.1 15 1.9 7 5 15 1.9 9 99 673 84.1
11 Fremantle 125 11.4 75 6.8 200 18.2 49 4.5 0 0 28 2.5 14 7 23 2.1 10 148 925 84.1
9 Collingwood 104 11.6 61 6.8 165 18.3 35 3.9 1 0.1 27 3 6 6 13 1.4 10 88 724 80.4
7 North Melbourne 75 10.7 53 7.6 128 18.3 24 3.4 1 0.1 22 3.1 6 6 12 1.7 9 81 561 80.1
9 GWS Giants 98 10.9 64 7.1 162 18 27 3 0 0 23 2.6 9 1 14 1.6 12 96 697 77.4
8 Gold Coast 85 10.6 59 7.4 144 18 26 3.3 1 0.1 23 2.9 7 6 12 1.5 10 82 615 76.9
9 Sydney 90 10 57 6.3 147 16.3 27 3 2 0.2 27 3 6 5 15 1.7 12 102 668 74.2
12 Adelaide 117 9.8 78 6.5 195 16.3 36 3 0 0 25 2.1 13 10 27 2.3 10 172 870 72.5
8 Geelong 85 10.6 58 7.3 143 17.9 28 3.5 0 0 16 2 5 4 9 1.1 8 62 574 71.8
8 Essendon 71 8.9 56 7 127 15.9 23 2.9 1 0.1 20 2.5 11 1 6 0.8 9 45 528 66
8 Hawthorn 68 8.5 61 7.6 129 16.1 18 2.3 0 0 13 1.6 7 6 14 1.8 8 92 513 64.1
9 Melbourne 88 9.8 46 5.1 134 14.9 27 3 0 0 21 2.3 10 10 10 1.1 9 69 570 63.3
147 Totals 1625 11.1 1069 7.3 2694 18.3 511 3.5 12 0.1 406 2.8 135 87 232 1.6 158 1550 11606 79
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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Punters would need a have a strong disposition to back Essendon at $1.60 to make the 8
I think it's reasonable odds.

I expect their game plan to mature and for them to play the percentages more. That it wont happen smoothly is a risk I guess but there's no real reason to expect it.

The addition of Shiel has to be good. He was last injured in 2015 and has become one of the most reliable and consistent midfield contributors in the comp. The negatives on BF are mostly rival clubs trolling, and one or two of our supporters resentful that he didn't stay in my view. He did leave our leadership group last year which to me was inexplicable, but he has matured into an influential player, in a positive way.
 
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