Preview Who will finish higher - Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda or Hawthorn

[Leather Poisoning]

Bombers are a flag smoky

Very smoky. Thick black fog of smoke.

I know I know, by saying smoky you’re admitting that they’re not a strong chance. Just when people say ‘smoky’ it’s often followed by putting some cash on someone who won’t win it. It’s a terminology thing. If we translate smoky into “won’t win unless the sky falls in” I feel much better.

If essendon win it in the next few years (2019/2020 because they’re not going to in 2018) then I fear what it will do to the tanking mindset of the league. Essendon has bans that forced them to tank, but if they win I think other clubs that are midtable with a few star players littered throughout their best 22 will take the plunge and tank and reload. I don’t really want to see this.

 

[Joey longshadow]

Huge call. Expect the Tigers fans to climb off their Christmas left overs and start a war spurned by that comment!

he's demonstrating a lack of knowledge of our list... But hey that's fine.. As I said to him let's revisit this conversation at the end of next season

 

[SCRAY72]

The games Stringer was out injured, we seemed to kick higher scores, I think we will be fine.

Kicked 22 goals v the Bombres without Stringer in a year we struggled to score.

 

[demondavey]

Very smoky. Thick black fog of smoke.

I know I know, by saying smoky you’re admitting that they’re not a strong chance. Just when people say ‘smoky’ it’s often followed by putting some cash on someone who won’t win it. It’s a terminology thing. If we translate smoky into “won’t win unless the sky falls in” I feel much better.

If essendon win it in the next few years (2019/2020 because they’re not going to in 2018) then I fear what it will do to the tanking mindset of the league. Essendon has bans that forced them to tank, but if they win I think other clubs that are midtable with a few star players littered throughout their best 22 will take the plunge and tank and reload. I don’t really want to see this.

I don't think it'll do anything, because the Essendon saga was an anomaly. The reason Essendon played finals this year was due to their senior players, not the kids. McGrath is an exception, but they always had a reasonable list, and any club that wants to tank to rebuild is a club that won't succeed. Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney never tanked.

Maybe flag smoky is a bit much, but I reckon Preliminary Finalists is somewhere they could be. A mid table club, say Melbourne, WB, Collingwood or St Kilda would do horrendous damage by tanking after we've seen the WB and Richmond win flags from the back of successful structure and traditional footballing methods.

 

[Martyn_30_]

I’ve never been more sure of anything in footy than the bulldogs playing finals next year. But I’m also sure that most people will have the team just in or out of the eight. There are many reasons why the team will be better and you’ll see them clearly happen next year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RUNVS]

Saints- you don't annihilate the best team in the comp the way they did for no reason. They'll put it together this year. If not, Melb.

Did St Kilda beat Adelaide? I don't remember.

 

[demondavey]

Hawthorn did ok losing Buddy, Geelong did ok losing Ablett Jnr, and Stringer was not in that calibre he was too lazy for that.

We underperformed last year, 2015 and 16 we made finals, and could have been top four in both years. One down year, due to a range of reasons and we are rated on that instead, interesting.

Yeah I'd agree with this. One player tends not to make the impact people suggest. Hawthorn were better post Franklin and Sydney never won a flag with him or Tippett. Adelaide without Dangerfield, no issues. Geelong without Ablett, no issues.

I'd say that the WB will be fine without Stringer. The only issue with them is whether they're too top heavy with Boyd, Schache, Redpath and Roughead?

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I don't think it'll do anything, because the Essendon saga was an anomaly. The reason Essendon played finals this year was due to their senior players, not the kids. McGrath is an exception, but they always had a reasonable list, and any club that wants to tank to rebuild is a club that won't succeed. Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney never tanked.

Maybe flag smoky is a bit much, but I reckon Preliminary Finalists is somewhere they could be. A mid table club, say Melbourne, WB, Collingwood or St Kilda would do horrendous damage by tanking after we've seen the WB and Richmond win flags from the back of successful structure and traditional footballing methods.

I think the bye year that Essendon had allowed them to develop Fantasia, Merrett, Daniher, Tippa and McGrath in a way that wouldn't have happened if the 12 banned players were there every week. They were given more responsibility and more forgiveness than if there was more short-term competition for spots. It's worked well for them as those 5 guys I listed are playing really good footy.

It's going to be interesting to see what Collingwood, St Kilda or Port do if they fail again in 2018. That's where the temptation to totally tank it will become very strong. Those three have been mid-low tier for too long

 

[demondavey]

I’ve never been more sure of anything in footy than the bulldogs playing finals next year. But I’m also sure that most people will have the team just in or out of the eight. There are many reasons why the team will be better and you’ll see them clearly happen next year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

What are those reasons?

 

[GiantsTragic]

I’ve never been more sure of anything in footy than the bulldogs playing finals next year. But I’m also sure that most people will have the team just in or out of the eight. There are many reasons why the team will be better and you’ll see them clearly happen next year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nothing wrong with backing your team in the off season, but I'd be very surprised.
You fell away as the season went on this year and a major turnaround is needed.
There's no return to 2016, that's clear, there'll have to be a new game plan.

 

[demondavey]

I think the bye year that Essendon had allowed them to develop Fantasia, Merrett, Daniher, Tippa and McGrath in a way that wouldn't have happened if the 12 banned players were there every week. They were given more responsibility and more forgiveness than if there was more short-term competition for spots. It's worked well for them as those 5 guys I listed are playing really good footy.

It's going to be interesting to see what Collingwood, St Kilda or Port do if they fail again in 2018. That's where the temptation to totally tank it will become very strong. Those three have been mid-low tier for too long

Yes. Good point. I'd pick the Bombers to be anywhere from 4-8.

Port have recruited in such a way where the only obvious conclusion is that they think a flag is imminent. And I think if they get their ducks in a row they'll win the next 2 potentially. They are a good outfit.

Collingwood seem to have all this expectation to succeed from the obvious pressure, whether they actually lift themselves into the 8 is another question, but Buckley would want to be giving a lot more as his been contracted for two more years and if they fail there'll be a mutiny there, an average year next year might see Ed shown the door. He has backed Buckley to the hilt and something needs to happen.

St Kilda I can't read. 9th in 2016, looking like a top 8 side coming into 2017 but were just really poor with patches of decent form here and there. I think it'll go either way next year, either really good or really poor. A poor year could see Richardson gone.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yeah I'd agree with this. One player tends not to make the impact people suggest. Hawthorn were better post Franklin and Sydney never won a flag with him or Tippett. Adelaide without Dangerfield, no issues. Geelong without Ablett, no issues.

I'd say that the WB will be fine without Stringer. The only issue with them is whether they're too top heavy with Boyd, Schache, Redpath and Roughead?

Bulldogs won't play all 4. Either Schache or Redpath likely to miss... unless Roughead is playing as a full-time defender.

 

[SCRAY72]

Yeah I'd agree with this. One player tends not to make the impact people suggest. Hawthorn were better post Franklin and Sydney never won a flag with him or Tippett. Adelaide without Dangerfield, no issues. Geelong without Ablett, no issues.

I'd say that the WB will be fine without Stringer. The only issue with them is whether they're too top heavy with Boyd, Schache, Redpath and Roughead?

Our talls are injury prone, doubtful they would all be available at the same time. Good to have a bit of depth.

 

[Appa]

Melbourne have the best list and should finish the highest of the four. I would be surprised if they have another under-performing year.

 

[demondavey]

Melbourne have the best list and should finish the highest of the four. I would be surprised if they have another under-performing year.

I wouldn't.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I wouldn't.

What are you making of the players bypassing the coaching/leadership group to stop the SAS training camp?

That could point to a disconnect that might impact the groups fortunes, or it could mean absolutely nothing.

It will be interesting to see.

 

[Dez!]

What are you making of the players bypassing the coaching/leadership group to stop the SAS training camp?

That could point to a disconnect that might impact the groups forurnes, or it could mean absolutely nothing.

It will be interesting to see.

It won't affect anything.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It won't affect anything.

Based on?

 

[schmuttt]

What are you making of the players bypassing the coaching/leadership group to stop the SAS training camp?

That could point to a disconnect that might impact the groups fortunes, or it could mean absolutely nothing.

It will be interesting to see.

Hard for any Melbourne supporter to say it will/won’t affect us, we won’t truly know until about halfway through 2018. I do think though our main problem to address isn’t a potential disconnect between players and staff but a simple look at why we come out against sides below us so poorly.

 

[demondavey]

What are you making of the players bypassing the coaching/leadership group to stop the SAS training camp?

That could point to a disconnect that might impact the groups fortunes, or it could mean absolutely nothing.

It will be interesting to see.

I was pretty vocal in another thread about it, noting that I don't think it'll be a big deal and a mountain was made out of a mole hill. Also that there were a lot of trolls ripping into Melbourne because they could, any excuse to.

My thoughts wavered a bit when I found out that Melbourne Storm went on the same camp and have been doing so for many years. They've obviously been very successful. It annoyed me a bit to discover that but I still think nothing negative will come of it.

The main thing for us to ensure is to win the close games and not let lesser sides beat us. We need to make sure we arrive and play a full game, when we play 4 quarters we do really well and often have good wins, when we switch off for a period then we get smashed because we really lose touch.

To be honest, it's mental. We've got the players. Tell me Petracca, Viney, Oliver, Brayshaw, Tyson, Lever, Hogan and Gawn wouldn't be walk up starts in any other side. If we can get our act together and start playing 4 quarters, we will 15+ games.

 

[SCRAY72]

Hawthorn did ok losing Buddy, Geelong did ok losing Ablett Jnr, and Stringer was not in that calibre he was too lazy for that.

We underperformed last year, 2015 and 16 we made finals, and could have been top four in both years. One down year, due to a range of reasons and we are rated on that instead, interesting.

Don't forget Danger, Crows midfield has stepped up since his departure.

 

[Trav 20]

Dees finished the highest of this group of battlers in 2017 and will be better in 2018. Much depends on Viney, Gawn, Hogan, and Petracca.

Dogs and Hawks hard to peg. I think the Dogs will bounce back, but no guarantees. Hawks are still old, but they have a winning culture.

The Saints had a 40 page blueprint they took to their board in 2013. Their stated aim was to pick 18 teenagers in the first three rounds from the next 4 drafts, i.e. through 2013-2016. They also had a huge emphasis in landing a "big fish" with free agency from 2016.

So how did they go ? It's a fail. They drafted 13 teenagers in the first three rounds during that period, not 18 as outlined, and their "big fish" is yet to know of their existence in football terms.

The Saints lack top end class. They knew it, they had a plan to fix it, but they failed in their execution.

 

[demondavey]

Hard for any Melbourne supporter to say it will/won’t affect us, we won’t truly know until about halfway through 2018. I do think though our main problem to address isn’t a potential disconnect between players and staff but a simple look at why we come out against sides below us so poorly.

Pretty much. We beat Adelaide by 40 points on the road then lose to North the week later at home. We lead Fremantle at the G by 28 points at half time then lose by 2. We lead Geelong by 25 in the third quarter and lose by 30.

We muck around against North in Tasmania and lose by 4. We lead Richmond by 24 points at three quarter time and lose by 13. We decide it's too hard to play in round 23 when finals is up for grabs. We piss around against Hawthorn for a half before playing a blinder in the second half and lose by 3 points.

The losses are soft losses, there's no urgency to get on with it and turn a 25 point lead into a 75 point win. That's what we've got to do. Stop looking for other players to carry on and have ownership all across the team. More leadership, more killer instinct.

Honestly, that stuff only comes from one source, the playing group deciding themselves they'll all be accountable and all lead together. We get the mental stuff right, we are top 4 for the next 3 years.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I was pretty vocal in another thread about it, noting that I don't think it'll be a big deal and a mountain was made out of a mole hill. Also that there were a lot of trolls ripping into Melbourne because they could, any excuse to.

My thoughts wavered a bit when I found out that Melbourne Storm went on the same camp and have been doing so for many years. They've obviously been very successful. It annoyed me a bit to discover that but I still think nothing negative will come of it.

The main thing for us to ensure is to win the close games and not let lesser sides beat us. We need to make sure we arrive and play a full game, when we play 4 quarters we do really well and often have good wins, when we switch off for a period then we get smashed because we really lose touch.

To be honest, it's mental. We've got the players. Tell me Petracca, Viney, Oliver, Brayshaw, Tyson, Lever, Hogan and Gawn wouldn't be walk up starts in any other side. If we can get our act together and start playing 4 quarters, we will 15+ games.

I have Melbourne top 4, so I agree with much of what you’re saying(even though I do question if Goodwin can get it done) as the players are there to get the job done.

If Melbourne don’t make finals, then I guess we can use the training camp scenario as a bit of a window into what might have gone wrong(not all players fully in board).

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks’ 2016 to r19: 15 wins 4 losses not beating anyone of significance by much

2016 r20 to 2017 r6. 3 wins 9 losses. Wooden spoon form

2017 r7 to r23. 9 wins from 15. Form would finish lower half of top 8. Again didn’t thrash anyone decent