I've given my "dumb" response in this thread, but I'll give my actual opinion on this now. But first...
I agree with most of this post above. At the end of 2016, we had 5 stars, and we gave up the oldest and most injury prone one in Deledio for a 1st round draft pick next year. That's about the limit of what we should be giving up in terms of star power. Giving up Martin, Riewoldt, or Rance would be madness and would set us back for years to come, and Cotchin I would only part with for a very very high price, which most teams probably wouldn't want to pay.
In all seriousness, our list as a whole obviously needs some work, and we're in the pack of about 7 or 8 teams vying for 1 or 2 spots in the finals, so essentially the odds are that we won't make it in. However, this myth that we need a full rebuild is also bogus as well, we're nowhere near that stage just yet.
Now, onto the thread topic... who's gonna finish higher? It's going to be Richmond, and here's my reasoning.
2016 was a poor year for Richmond, but it's also a year which we still won 8 games despite literally everything that could go wrong, going wrong. The last 6 weeks were pretty bad, and are probably the root cause of all the negativity, but realistically we were 7-9 at one point, and still a possible chance for finals. The reason why an 8-14 season was considered so bad by so many, is because of where Richmond's list actually is at... i.e, a solid list with the ability to play very good football. The expectations are higher for lists that are better, and when they under-perform, they get slaughtered by the media.
To contrast that, many people who are saying Richmond are doomed, are also simultaneously praising the year that Carlton had, and saying that they are heading for a decent run in 2017, despite playing with a team that was, on average;
1) Older and more experienced than Richmond's teams throughout 2016, and
2) Won only 7 games for the season.
The reason for this is simple: the expectation based on the strength of Carlton's list going into 2016, was that they would be a 3-4 win team, and they overachieved on that expectation.
The expectation of Richmond's list was that we'd be a finalist in 2016 and win 12-15 games, like previous years, and because we won 8, therefore we need to rebuild, etc etc.
In reality, the list doesn't actually suck, we simply had a bad year. You don't lose your talent, the only thing you lose is your confidence, and clearly after 2015's EF loss (and the effect of the previous 2 EF losses as well), our confidence in ourselves was shot. But given the year that we've had, things have now changed, and the "expectation" is that Richmond will fail and continue to be a poor team.
That suits Richmond
PERFECTLY!




I hope every single one of the other 17 clubs have the same thoughts about us, because all it's going to do is make it easier for us in 2017. Just like Carlton doubled their win tally over what was expected in 2016, I feel like we're well positioned to do exactly the same thing, if not more so, partly because of the new "lower" expectations on the club.
People expecting us to only win 7 or 8 games again? Perfect.
Now, regarding Collingwood and North... the Pies have been around the same mark for about 3 seasons now, and over the long term of the past 5 or 6 seasons since Buckley took over, have been steadily declining every single year. Not to mention that they've barely added anything over the off-season of any quality, aside from an injury prone Wells.
They have been an 8-10 win team since 2014. I think the expectation of them remaining that way is justified, especially when they're signing a guy like Mayne to a 4 year deal worth 2 million. I expect the Magpies to be around 11th again.
North Melbourne, despite strong finals performances in 2014 and 2015, realistically they have been a 12-14 win team over the past 3 H&A seasons, and if it wasn't for a couple of stirring Semi Final performances against some weakened veteran opposition in 2014 (Geelong) and 2015 (Sydney), the expectations on them for the H&A might not have been as high as it was in 2016. But unfortunately a soft draw at the start, and the fact that they had the oldest list in the league in 2016, meant that it was essentially their last crack at a flag.
And after being 9-0, it looked good... but after that point, the wheels fell off, they ended up only winning 12 games, got smashed in Week 1 of the finals, and then lost about 1000 games of experience.
North's decline won't be a long or drawn out one, as they do have some decent youngsters, however their 2017 is a write off in terms of staying at a 12 win season. They will be Bottom 6, but they have enough quality to avoid going "full Brisbane" for now.
So my final prediction:
Richmond - 7th, 14 wins 8 losses. Back to normality for the Tigers.
Collingwood - 11th, 10 wins 12 losses. Status quo for the Pies.
North Melbourne - 13th, 8 wins 14 losses. A drop off for the Kangas, but with renewed vision for the future.