Who will finish higher out of Hawks, Saints and Dees?

[footyfan1978]

Seen a few of these poll threads around but more curious on this one myself.

Hawks been a serious premiership contender and also multiple winner for a long period now.
They moved Mitchell and Lewis on. Lost one of the quickest young mids in Hill and got in Tom Mitchell and O'Meara. Hodge and Burgoyne are not getting any younger. They went out in straight sets in finals. Are they re-loading for a quick rebound or are they going to soon be out of contention for a number of years?

Meanwhile St.Kilda still got Riewoldt and Montagna for one more year and youngsters as a group did well together to rise up the ladder in 2016. Are they on a genuine rise to next step of finals and eventually premiership contention or is this a false dawn for near future premiership hopes ?

Melbourne have possibly the best ruck in league for next decade in Max Gawn and have some serious young talent coming through in all parts of the ground. They have a new head coach though. They picked up Lewis from Hawks as experience in the middle. Are they ready to make finals and even win some or are they are genuine middle of ladder group to be in limbo for multiple years without really be a premiership contender?

Playing lists in following posts to browse at what they all got to work with.

 

[footyfan1978]

Hawthorn Players and Age
Burgoyne, Shaun 34.16
Gibson, Josh 32.77
Hodge, Luke 32.51
Roughead, Jarryd 29.90
Puopolo, Paul 29.05
Birchall, Grant 28.89
Henderson, Ricky 28.27
Frawley, James 28.24
Smith, Isaac 27.97
Stratton, Ben 27.80
McEvoy, Ben 27.44
Rioli, Cyril 27.43
Whitecross, Brendan 26.90
Vickery, Tyrone 26.55
Schoenmakers, Ryan 26.11
Breust, Luke 26.10
Ceglar, Jonathon 25.84
Duryea, Taylor 25.65
Shiels, Liam 25.64
Fitzpatrick, Jack 25.48
Gunston, Jack 25.17
Langford, Will 24.46
Mitchell, Tom 23.55
O'Meara, Jaeger 22.82
O'Brien, Tim 22.73
Brand, Kaiden 22.70
O'Rourke, Jonathan 22.66
Heatherley, Kurt 21.96
Sicily, James 21.95
Hartung, Billy 21.90
Willsmore, Dallas 21.56
Howe, Daniel 21.04
Pittonet, Marc 20.54
Miles, Teia 20.13
Stewart, Kade 19.92
Burton, Ryan 19.88
Hardwick, Blake 19.87
Lovell, Kieran 19.59
Glass, Conor 19.22
Surman, Luke 19.03
Cousins, James 18.75
Hanrahan, Oliver 18.31
Nash, Conor 18.21
Morrison, Harry 18.18
Lewis, Mitch 18.18

 

[footyfan1978]

Melbourne Players and Age
Vince, Bernie 31.21
Lewis, Jordan 30.65
Lumumba, Heritier 30.09
Pedersen, Cameron 29.76
Jones, Nathan 28.91
Garland, Colin 28.64
Garlett, Jeff 27.38
Spencer, Jake 27.19
Hibberd, Michael 26.96
Jetta, Neville 26.85
Smith, Tim 25.83
Watts, Jack 25.73
Melksham, Jake 25.31
Trengove, Jack 25.30
Maynard, Corey 25.20
Gawn, Max 24.97
Vandenberg, Aaron 24.79
McDonald, Tom 24.25
Bugg, Tomas 23.70
Tyson, Dom 23.53
Frost, Sam 23.31
Kent, Dean 22.81
Kennedy-Harris, Jay 22.80
Hannan, Mitchell 22.69
Viney, Jack 22.68
Wagner, Josh 22.49
Hogan, Jesse 21.85
Kennedy, Ben 21.75
Hunt, Jayden 21.71
Keilty, Declan 21.62
Salem, Christian 21.43
Harmes, James 21.20
Petracca, Christian 20.96
Brayshaw, Angus 20.94
Neal-Bullen, Alex 20.94
Smith, Joel 20.81
McDonald, Oscar 20.75
White, Mitchell 20.69
McKenna, Patrick 20.35
Stretch, Billy 20.28
King, Mitchell 19.96
Hulett, Liam 19.76
Weideman, Sam 19.48
Oliver, Clayton 19.41
Johnstone, Dion 18.47
Filipovic, Lachlan 18.31

 

[footyfan1978]

St.Kilda Players and Age
Riewoldt, Nick 34.17
Montagna, Leigh 33.13
Dempster, Sean 32.91
Gilbert, Sam 30.33
Armitage, David 28.51
Geary, Jarryn 28.49
Brown, Nathan J. 28.00
Holmes, Jason 27.14
Steven, Jack 26.73
Savage, Shane 25.95
Hickey, Tom 25.79
Stevens, Koby 25.50
Roberton, Dylan 25.49
Carlisle, Jake 25.22
Weller, Maverick 24.85
Bruce, Josh 24.53
Newnes, Jack 23.81
Ross, Sebastian 23.62
Longer, Billy 23.60
Webster, Jimmy 23.47
Minchington, Darren 23.03
Connellan, Ray 22.96
Wright, Nathan 22.84
Membrey, Tim 22.57
Pierce, Lewis 22.09
Dunstan, Luke 21.89
Sinclair, Jack 21.85
Freeman, Nathan 21.51
Billings, Jack 21.34
Acres, Blake 21.20
Marshall, Rowan 21.07
Steele, Jack 21.02
McCartin, Paddy 20.67
McKenzie, Daniel 20.59
Lonie, Jack 20.35
Goddard, Hugh 20.32
Coughlan, Nick 20.27
White, Brandon 19.93
Rice, Bailey 19.85
O’Kearney, Nick 19.84
Joyce, Darragh 19.55
Long, Ben 19.33
Gresham, Jade 19.32
Phillips, Ed 18.72
Battle, Josh 18.30

 

[Frank Gallagher]

Hard call, Dee's and Saints on the up and the Hawks seemingly on the slide, I'd still back the Hawks though.

 

[eastfreo75]

Saints won seven games against the bottom 6 teams. Very much overrated and will struggle with a harder draw. No wins outside of Victoria.


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[Strapping Young Lad]

I'd still back my side in, because despite the clearly visible yearning from opposition supporters to see Hawthorn fall away the best 22 is still very powerful even with the loss of Mitchell and Lewis and there are a few developing types who will be pushing to try and claim a spot from a couple of the aging stars over the next 12 months.

Hawthorn:
B: Taylor Duryea ~ James Frawley ~ Ben Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall ~ Ryan Burton ~ Josh Gibson
W: Jaeger O'Meara ~ Luke Hodge ~ Isaac Smith
HF: Luke Bruest ~ Jack Gunston ~ James Sicily
F: Cyril Rioli ~ Jarryd Roughead ~ Tyrone Vickery
Foll: Ben McEvoy ~ Tom Mitchell ~ Liam Shiels
I/C: ~ Paul Puopulo ~ Shaun Burgoyne ~ Brendan Whitecross ~ Kaiden Brand

Emerg from: Henderson, Langford, Lovell, Howe, O'Brien, Hartung, O'Rourke, Stewart, Pittonet

*premiership players in bold.

 

[footyfan1978]

Saints won seven games against the bottom 6 teams. Very much overrated and will struggle with a harder draw. No wins outside of Victoria.

They are not getting any love in the votes so many of us have our doubts as to their upside in 2017 it seems.

 

[JayJ20]

Melbourne. They have the strongest list out of the 3 heading into 2017 IMO

 

[Sando22]

Hawks for me.
Dees and Saints on par but Saints have the wood over us so I'm going them 2nd

 

[Dazb86]

Depends on Melbournes coach IMO. The team still occasionally shits the bed in games too. They've shown to get ahead of themselves at times.

I think the Saints will be a slow burn but should improve again next year.

Hawthorn have lost 2 key mids but Rougheads return kind of negates that.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Saints won seven games against the bottom 6 teams. Very much overrated and will struggle with a harder draw. No wins outside of Victoria.

Our draw this year might have been relatively easy overall, but unlike some teams, we didn't have a soft draw to help us get off to a strong start to the year and get some real momentum up. In fact, after 7 rounds our draw was rated (by Champion Data) as having been the 3rd hardest of any team in the comp and the following week we had West Coast, in Perth, so after that it might have even been the 2nd hardest draw, for over a third of the season.

If we were no good we would have crumbled off the back of that early-season draw (and being 2-6 and coming off a 90 point loss), but we didn't and we won 10 of our next/last 14 games, including wins in that time over WB and at-the-time top-of-the-ladder Geelong (the week after they spanked WB). Early in the season we also only just got pipped by Hawthorn, down in Tassie (where they've now won 16 in a row) and North (when they were near full-strength, sitting two games clear on the top of the ladder and coming off a reasonably comfortable win over WB). So only someone who is ignorant or trolling would suggest we could only play well against poor teams.

We were also well on top of Port (when they probably had their strongest team for the year in), over in Adelaide in R1, until we seemed to hit the wall at the end of the 3rd quarter- presumably largely as a result of us having played just one game of footy in the previous 36 days, as a result of one of our preseason games being cancelled and not having had a game in week 2 either.

We also tended to win and win well against the teams who finished below or around us on the ladder, which to me says it was about right that we finished at least two wins clear of those teams. Two very easy wins over Melbourne (who the year before almost beat us at Etihad), two even easier wins over Carlton (including one when we were without Riewoldt, Fisher, Dempster, McCartin and Billings and they were coming off 6 wins from their last 7 games), a very comfortable win over Collingwood, at the MCG (when we were down to 2 on the bench from before half time- with Riewoldt and McCartin out for the game- and then 1 from before 3/4 time), a comfortable enough win over Richmond, at the 'G- albeit in a very ugly, low scoring game-, a 34 point win over Freo (when they played some of their best footy of the year and we took a bit of a nap for a couple of quarters) and then we kicked 160 points against a plucky Brisbane, in the last round, despite them being closer to full-strength than we were.

By the end of the year we were also winning the close ones that we were losing early in the season, as the group got more experienced in what it took to win and started believing in themselves more, which augurs well for us going into next year and a harder looking draw. We'll be a LOT more ready to compete with the best teams than we were early in the season this year in particular.

 

[snooplions]

and then we kicked 160 points against a plucky Brisbane, in the last round, despite them being closer to full-strength than we were.

You can't polish this turd, I'm sorry.

 

[aussierulesrules]

You can't polish this turd, I'm sorry.

Were you at the game? I was and I was very impressed with the fact you guys didn't roll over like you could have once it got out to about a 10 goal lead and how you kept on having a real crack right to the end. You don't kick 100 points in a game without having a go. It could have easily been a 100+ point loss if you hadn't kept having a real go.

 

[Simon_Says]

Dees lack the maturity needed to play in september IMO. Lewis will definetly help, think we will see the most noticeable change over the next two years.

Having said that I still think the hawks are in the best position

 

[footyfan1978]

Somewhat surprised Saints are level with the Dees now in the poll.

 

[HolyWars]

I am going to say us.


I think we're going to disappoint those who think we'll have a significant slide. Roughy will be a huge inclusion despite losing Mitch and Lewis (whilst gaining two very good players).

 

[Procrastinator35]

Squawks.....The other 2 are paper-Tigers.

 

[footyfan1978]

Less confidence in Melbourne's year to come than I would have thought.
Interesting results.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

My ladder prediction has:
6th St Kilda
7th Melbourne
8th Hawthorn

Don't think there will be much between the sides.

 

[footyfan1978]

My ladder prediction has:
6th St Kilda
7th Melbourne
8th Hawthorn

Don't think there will be much between the sides.

Not far off I reckon but still think Saints have a lot to do to crack that much improvement on ladder for them. Melbourne I think will go past them at a rate of knots. Upside is huge. Once Nick Riewoldt and Montagna retire Saints will fall back a few spots again. Melbourne are only going to go upwards in next couple of years, unless some major injury toll destroys their progress.

 

[12Chill]

Not far off I reckon but still think Saints have a lot to do to crack that much improvement on ladder for them. Melbourne I think will go past them at a rate of knots. Upside is huge. Once Nick Riewoldt and Montagna retire Saints will fall back a few spots again. Melbourne are only going to go upwards in next couple of years, unless some major injury toll destroys their progress.

Respect to Joey as he's still playing at a fairly good level but he's not even close to being irreplaceable especially considering our depth in the rebounding defenders department.

Roo will always be a loss, the guy is a champion but he kicked 14 goals from rounds 8-22 this year where we won 9 games out of our season total of 12 wins. With Bruce, Membrey, McCartin at least we aren't wondering what life after Roo in the forward line will look like (it used to be Rhys Stanley and Spencer White- jesus!)

Plays wing now which is much easier to replace than a #1 forward which he isn't any more. Will be a loss either way but our reliance on him is gradually decreasing every game we play.

I'd be confident that the general improvement from a whole host of young blokes will negate the loss of any older players retiring we have in the coming couple of years to ensure that we don't fall considerably, if at all.

 

[schmuttt]

Should have made the poll public. Voted for the saints FWIW

 

[juss]

I think the Hawks will miss the 8, Saints and Dees might make it, but perhaps not both.

 

[footyfan1978]

Should have made the poll public. Voted for the saints FWIW

Someone made another poll for these exact 3 clubs a few days after I did on this poll sub forum. They made it on the main forum but looks like mods moved that one to here as well. That one is public. I was more curious to see what people would vote without being obvious knowing what the percentages were already. But you can see what the vote spread for main forum was there. I was interested to see they looked to be heading the same way in ratio despite other thread more visible to many more to vote. It is interesting how it is panning out in vote spread now as the sample increases.