Preview Who will finish higher - Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Brisbane or St Kilda

Who finishes higher in 2019?


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eastfreo75

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My look on things.
Lions 89%
Dogs 77%
Dockers 76%
Saints 75.5%

*Suggests that the Lions will rise quicker

Losses under 12 points
Lions 5
Dogs 3
Dockers 2
Saints 1.5

*Very similar to the above, Lions closer to more wins
Wins
Dogs 8
Dockers 8
Lions 5
Saints 4

*Dogs and Freo are 4/5 more wins to play finals

Best 22 Player gains/losses
Lions
Gain: Neale, Adams ,Lyons, Mccarthy
Loss: Beams

Dogs
Gain: Duryea, Smith, Lloyd
Loss: Adams, Dalhaus

Dockers
Gain: Hogan, Lobb , Conca, Colyer
Loss: Neale

Saints
Gain: Hanneberry, Kent, M King
Loss: Gilbert, Stevens,

*Dockers seem to have improve their list in player movement than the rest

Best 22 players lost to injury (more than 7 missing games) Still at the Club
Lions
Cameron 11 Games
Keays 20 games
Lester 7 games
Mathieson 8 games
Walker 8 games

Dogs
Sucklings 11 games
Wood 10 games
Boyd 10 games
Liberatore 21 games
Dickson 14 games
Morris 11 games
Picken 22 games
Jong 12 games

Freo
Logue 22 games
Darcy 15 games
Fyfe 7 games
B Hill 12 games
Bennell 22 games
Blakely 9 games
Taberner 13 games
Sandilands 11 games
S Hill 9 games

Saints
Acres 10 games
Roberton 18 games
Longer 17 games
Austin 15 games
Bruce 19 games
Mccartin 9 games

*Lions had a good run of injuries and Dockers a horrible run.

List Age
Lions 23.5
Dockers 23.9
Dogs 24.0
Saints 24.0

*Age is very similar between the lists

Conclusions

Dockers will do better than the rest if they are not rocked by injuries.
 
Joined
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Thread starter #179
Yeah, it's part of why I feel like we can't compare with either side. The Hawks '08 side had Hodge, Birchall, Lewis, Mitchell, Franklin, Rioli, Roughead, Brown and Ellis, who were all involved in the later premierships in some capacity (if I'm not mistaken). The majority of our experienced or middle aged guys involved in the 2016 premiership have since retired (Clay Smith, Robert Murphy*, Matthew Boyd, Shane Biggs) or moved on (Jordan Roughead, Luke Dahlhaus, Jake Stringer, Joel Hamling), plus Dale Morris and Liam Picken will probably be retiring this year. If we make another grand final any time soon, it's likely to involve maybe half the side we fielded that day, and most of them were quite young at the time:

JJ, Wood, Hunter, Bont, Macrae, Cordy, Boyd, Libba, Dunkley, McLean, Daniel.

We may have been a premature premier, but it will take a while for us to really rebuild properly, given that the majority of our experienced guys from 2016 are gone
That's a very good core to build around, which is why I won't be surprised if the Bulldogs return to finals this year.

Finishing 13th has been a good luck charm recently too ;) Richmond 13th to premiers, Collingwood 13th to one kick from being premiers.
 

WilloTree

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did you see last season ? last season we almost travelled as much as a WA team did ..
West Coast: 54,304 kms
Fremantle: 50,882 kms
St Kilda: 17,186 kms

Not sure which team you mean, regardless that's not even close to an accurate statement.
 

Shaz2012

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West Coast: 54,304 kms
Fremantle: 50,882 kms
St Kilda: 17,186 kms

Not sure which team you mean, regardless that's not even close to an accurate statement.
Have WA players already started getting to travel business class while the other clubs have to travel the other way in economy? If so, it looks like it made a difference :)
 

the dog's kennel

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The reason this is impossible to predict is that all 4 teams are incredibly fragile, and that won't change in 2019. All 4 teams are capable of stringing a bunch of wins together if everything goes right for them. To the extent that things go wrong for them, that will determine their final position. So the circumstances that will determine the success of each team haven't occurred yet. It is a complete lottery.

This might sound like a truism, but in my view solid teams can weather more bad luck. If say Richmond have a garbage year, I expect them to still make the 8. But any of these 4 teams in my view could conceivably come 17th or 6th. That is what makes them weak teams.
 

st_trav_ofWA

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St Kilda
West Coast: 54,304 kms
Fremantle: 50,882 kms
St Kilda: 17,186 kms

Not sure which team you mean, regardless that's not even close to an accurate statement.
how does it stack up against the rest of the melbourne teams ?? compared to the rest of the Melbourne based teams St Kildas travel schedule was (now here is the key word) ALMOST like an interstate club...
 

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Forward Press

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They should really include travel between Geelong and Melbourne even it's not flying.

There's a fair distance between the two cities.
That would only add a few hundred kilometres to the total. That doesn't even get you out of the state if you're a Perth-based team.
 

Clems Knee

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Travel between Geelong and Melbourne still adds up though, only seems like a short distance to Perth people because of how isolated Perth is.
It only seems a long way to Victorians because of how insular they are. Melbourne to Geelong is a commute.
 

Righteo

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Travel between Geelong and Melbourne still adds up though, only seems like a short distance to Perth people because of how isolated Perth is.
:think:

isn't it just over an hour on a comfy bus? I know people who take longer on their everyday work commute
 

st_trav_ofWA

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Anybody who thinks 1hr trip between the cities should be recorded as "travel" needs rocks thrown at their heads

Takes people longer to get to work...


Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
Geelong is not Travel .... if you can wake up in your own bed , play and then go to bed in your own bed in the same day its not travel
 
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