Prediction Who will we pick in the draft?

[hey shorty]

Hope we take McDonald. Look nothing against Hollands but the rate of subsequent ACL injury for players in the AFL under 21 is 50%. Therefore Hollands has a 50% chance he will reinjure his ACL. I'm not taking that risk on a top 30 pick, let alone pick 1. The rate of reinjury after doing an ACL for a player in the AFL over 21 is still 30%.

Fifteen-Year Audit of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructions in the Australian Football League From 1999 to 2013: Return to Play and Subsequent ACL Injury - PubMed

Fifteen-Year Audit of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructions in the Australian Football League From 1999 to 2013: Return to Play and Subsequent ACL Injury - PubMed

Most AFL players who underwent ACL reconstruction returned to play at least 1 AFL match. The high rate of subsequent ACL injury among AFL players demonstrates the highly demanding nature of Australian football, particularly at the elite level. The risk factors for subsequent ACL injury should be...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"The rate of return to play after an initial ACL injury was 77% (121 of 158 players). Greater preinjury playing experience and earlier selection in the AFL draft were associated with higher rates of return to play. The rate of subsequent ACL injury to either knee was 30% (48 of 158 players) and was especially high among players aged <21 years (23 of 46 players, 50%). After subsequent ACL injury, 34 of 48 players (71%) returned to play."

And we would have those stats at hand too. Lever did another one the year he left us too.

It's a HUGE risk

 

[Scorpus]

Hope we take McDonald. Look nothing against Hollands but the rate of subsequent ACL injury for players in the AFL under 21 is 50%. Therefore Hollands has a 50% chance he will reinjure his ACL. I'm not taking that risk on a top 30 pick, let alone pick 1. The rate of reinjury after doing an ACL for a player in the AFL over 21 is still 30%.

Fifteen-Year Audit of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructions in the Australian Football League From 1999 to 2013: Return to Play and Subsequent ACL Injury - PubMed

Fifteen-Year Audit of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructions in the Australian Football League From 1999 to 2013: Return to Play and Subsequent ACL Injury - PubMed

Most AFL players who underwent ACL reconstruction returned to play at least 1 AFL match. The high rate of subsequent ACL injury among AFL players demonstrates the highly demanding nature of Australian football, particularly at the elite level. The risk factors for subsequent ACL injury should be...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"The rate of return to play after an initial ACL injury was 77% (121 of 158 players). Greater preinjury playing experience and earlier selection in the AFL draft were associated with higher rates of return to play. The rate of subsequent ACL injury to either knee was 30% (48 of 158 players) and was especially high among players aged <21 years (23 of 46 players, 50%). After subsequent ACL injury, 34 of 48 players (71%) returned to play."

So not only are they a 50% chance to do their knee again, if they do fall into that category, there's a 29% chance they never play again

If my maths is right, that means there's a 15% chance that a draftee that's done an ACL will do it again and not return. Not to mention the reduction in output they might have if they do return.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

All I'll say is whatever they do they have to nail it. This is our 1 chance for our future.

 

[hendo8888]

1. Ugle-Hagan
2. McDonald
11. Macrae
28. Stone
29. Dumesny

 

[kick it to me_]

Port Adelaide have Connor Rozee

1

Connor Rozee

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.0

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.6

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

future mid/fwd
Brisbane Cam Rayner future mid /fwd
Essendon Jake Stringer

25

Jake Stringer

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.8

5star

D

8.5

2star

K

7.0

3star

HB

1.5

1star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

4star

G

2.5

5star

D

7.2

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

Gws Toby Green
Sydney Isacc Heeney
Collingwood have Jordan Degoey
Bulldogs have Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

10.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

18.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

Geelong have Patrick Dangerfield
Richmond have Dustin Martin

Thought Wayne Milera

30

Wayne Milera

Age

26

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.9

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

265.3

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

3.5

3star

T

1.0

2star

MG

282.0

4star

D

11.4

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.4

4star

MG

182.0

3star

could be the man for the crows, but appears to have found his role down back.

Adelaide mid/fwd star Elijah Holland's for pick 1

On SM-G988B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Stiffy_18]

Port Adelaide have Connor Rozee

1

Connor Rozee

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.0

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.6

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

future mid/fwd
Brisbane Cam Rayner future mid /fwd
Essendon Jake Stringer

25

Jake Stringer

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.8

5star

D

8.5

2star

K

7.0

3star

HB

1.5

1star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

4star

G

2.5

5star

D

7.2

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

Gws Toby Green
Sydney Isacc Heeney
Collingwood have Jordan Degoey
Bulldogs have Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

10.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

18.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

Geelong have Patrick Dangerfield
Richmond have Dustin Martin

Thought Wayne Milera

30

Wayne Milera

Age

26

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.9

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

265.3

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

3.5

3star

T

1.0

2star

MG

282.0

4star

D

11.4

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.4

4star

MG

182.0

3star

could be the man for the crows, but appears to have found his role down back.

Adelaide mid/fwd star Elijah Holland's for pick 1

On SM-G988B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

 

[BrissyCrow]

in all honesty i have no f**king clue who we are picking but if i had a gun to my head and had to pick who we are taking pick one and if i get it wrong im dead im picking thilthorpe. also with the north and hawks trade rumours this morning it puts more behind the thilthorpe at pick one trade. But what about Hollands? The rumours of us trying to trade back from 9 to GWS pick 13 and 15 indicated we are picking a tall at 1. The Thilthorpe pick is just a gut feel and when im picking with my gut i always pick the option i dont want so i dont get disappointed.

I think most of us are doing exactly the same thing. There maybe a few who are in the know or can have a more educated guess but it still a guess.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Clearly none of us got the selections correct. Forget trying to slot each pick into their right position...impossible. But one post did really well when you look just at the players picked in the draft and that was #rabidcrow who got 3 of our five new draftees correct. Many got both Borlase and Newchurch as CatB rookies but some messed that up as well. Some said we would either select Borlase or match for him using pick 40.

It just goes to show that even the most knowledgeable posters dont really know what goes on inside the club. So the next time you call another poster a f**kwit for his post just remember you might not be any smarter.

 

[StonesThrow]

Rabidcrow wins. Got 3 ND players correct (not exactly in position), which is a good effort.

Borlase and Newchurch were always a good chance to go late or rookie.

 

[rabidcrow]

Clearly none of us got the selections correct. Forget trying to slot each pick into their right position...impossible. But one post did really well when you look just at the players picked in the draft and that was #rabidcrow who got 3 of our five new draftees correct. Many got both Borlase and Newchurch as CatB rookies but some messed that up as well. Some said we would either select Borlase or match for him using pick 40.

It just goes to show that even the most knowledgeable posters dont really know what goes on inside the club. So the next time you call another poster a f**kwit for his post just remember you might not be any smarter.

Thanks for the tag. Fun comp to have a guess. Summary of our draft and my picks:

TT - as I had posted had some info regarding his injury , that he had recovered and the club had been involved in getting opinions on treatment. This made me confident he would be number 1 - although if Hollands hadn’t done his ACL I would have hoped we chose him. Will be interested to see if Riley resumes full training with us straight away

Pedlar - linked with us strongly by the media and quickly rose up draft boards because of that late. Surprised we took him that high but seemed likely we had strong interest

Cook - thought he was a need and similar types (size forward-mid) would be choice between him and Ford

Berry - surprised we passed on Poulter which would have given me 4! I guess the club thinks Hateley brings what Poulter would have?

Rowe - completely blindsided. Don’t hate the pick as he was super impressive during SANFL finals but didn’t expect it. Would have loved to take Carroll here

Anyway we appear to have added a lot of potentially good players to our list so hopefully we see good signs next year


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