Prediction Who will we pick in the draft?

[StonesThrow]

We've got a 33% chance of getting pick 1 (2) right. After that who the hell knows. Who even knows what draft picks we will have.

I'm going to guess that we do a pick swap and get rid of 9,22 and 23 to try and get TT after taking Hollands with pick 1 (2).

Hollands, Thilthorpe, Borlase

Can we get Newchurch via the RD somehow?

Next year the focus goes heavily to the midfield.

 

[slice]

I can. Your point is just completely out of line with reality.

Again. What purpose would Essendon have to trade for any of those picks? They don't have NGAs to worry about. No other team does either.

You obviously can’t read. I’ll dumb it down for you.

We would trade our Pick 9 and a 2021 second rounder for their Pick 6. They essentially get a 2021 pick for sliding down one position this year.

They’d be mad not to do it unless they were dead keen on Thilthorpe.

Anyway, not going to clog up this thread anymore by arguing with a moron.

 

[Doc_]

Whoever the best cricketer is.

 

[StonesThrow]

Hopefully some players that have composure, speed and very sound kicking skills. Our kicking skills currently are poor overall with the exception of a few players. If they can also take a mark and posses leadership qualities then we have hit the jackpot. Cox is one player that stands out that always hits his target. Good kicking means less turnovers.

Players with composure, speed and very sound kicking skills are top 10 players.

I'm not even sure if there's someone in this draft that fits that description (Campbell and Jones aside). I wouldn't call Hollands overly fast. Bruhn sounds like he could be close but has hardly played any football in the last two years. Maybe Perkins although there aer some ?? over his kicking consistency.

I would be happy with composure and good foot skills. Hollands, TT (for his size) and Macrae seem to fit this criteria quite well.

 

[crows dude]

We've got a 33% chance of getting pick 1 (2) right. After that who the hell knows. Who even knows what draft picks we will have.

I'm going to guess that we do a pick swap and get rid of 9,22 and 23 to try and get TT after taking Hollands with pick 1 (2).

Hollands, Thilthorpe, Borlase

Can we get Newchurch via the RD somehow?

Next year the focus goes heavily to the midfield.

Yes. If Newchurch and Borlase are not picked up we can place them on our CAT B Rookie list. Thats if we have nominated them. We didnt announce it that I can see. Only that we were not going to nominate Edwards.

 

[Pugsley]

Draft time brings so much unwarranted tension by Playstation traders.

 

[kulak]

1 Logan McDonald

By a process of elimination
Hollands - ACL risk, and seems more of a classy Shane Edwards

10

Shane Edwards

Age

35

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

9.1

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

3.0

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.6

1star

T

3.0

4star

CL

4.2

5star

D

8.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.2

3star

/ Jared Polec

13

Jared Polec

Age

31

Ht

187cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.6

5star

K

12.9

5star

HB

7.7

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

20.5

5star

K

13.1

5star

HB

7.4

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.1

4star

CL

2.9

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

ball user, not at pick 1 for me
Phillips - seems like an honest Scott Thompson / Ben Cunnington

10

Ben Cunnington

Age

32

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

9.0

3star

HB

12.4

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

17.7

4star

K

6.0

2star

HB

11.7

5star

M

2.0

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

15.8

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

6.2

5star

CL

3.0

5star

soldier, not at pick 1 for me
Thilthorpe - 100 kg ruck/forward with groin issues, not at pick 1 for me
DGB - key defender, not at pick 1 for me

9 (12 after academy picks) Nik Cox

22 Jack Carroll

23 Caleb Poulter

I figure we will probably go with projects rather than instant impact. That's what we did last year.

I figure we will go tall if in doubt, because supposedly this draft is better than next year's for talls.

I figure we should draft zero ball magnet midfielders. We have MCrouch (25), Laird (27), Hately (20) who one assumes will be in our midfield for at least 3-4 years. I don't think we can afford even one more ball magnet midfielder. Sorry Macrae, Powell etc. Prioritise skill and pressure over possession count.

I assumed no pick swaps, which is unlikely. More likely we split / defer one or more picks to next year.

I hope we consider month of birth. The younger the age group, the stronger the advantage to players born in January rather than December. If a December and January player are otherwise equal we should pick the December player. And yet of Cal Twomey's top 30, of the players not tied to an academy, there are only TWO born in August or later (the last 40 percent of the year): Jack Carroll 20 Dec, and Caleb Poulter 12 Oct.

There has got to be some seriously talented kids born in August - December of 2002 who are currently off the radar altogether. With Hamish watching a tonne of school footy last year, hopefully we are in a position to identify a couple of them.

 

[huludicidal]

What I would try to do:
Pick 1) Bid on JUH, then select Hollands

Pick 9) Trade this pick up to pick 5, 6 or 7 to take Thilthorpe by chucking in our 2021 second rounder and potentially some more steak knives (such as pick 40)

22 and 23) any 2 of Ford, Carroll, Poulter, Cox, O’Driscoll, Maher, Cook if they’re still there. I believe at least 4 of those 8 will be available. Cox and Cook are the least likely to be there, but you never know. Poulter and O’Driscoll are two guys I’ll personally be crossing my fingers for as I think both could realistically be on the board, and these two guys would complement the earlier selections of Hollands and Thilthorpe perfectly IMO.

40) This will either be used in the trade to acquire Thilthorpe or traded out to acquire a 2021 3rd rounder

80) Either pass or match a Borlase bid

Cat B: Newchurch (and possibly Borlase if no bid comes)


What I think is more likely:
1) McDonald
The rest: chaotic live trades and at least one “left-field” selection that is seen by many as a reach. I do think we’ll end up with O’Driscoll though, and I also think we’ll end up with both of Borlase and Newchurch.

 

[Crowked]

Luke Ball had a very good career

If we get 223 games from RT - I will be happy

I’d rather a premiership and a couple of Brownlows

 

[GreyCrow]

I’d rather a premiership and a couple of Brownlows

Sure but if the fallback is 223 games then I wont say no

 

[Crowked]

Sure but if the fallback is 223 games then I wont say no

My real point was Judd was the third player picked. Imo the best of the 3, and I’m just hoping we pick the best player with what will probably be our only ever shot at pick 1

 

[Maggsy]

Pick 1: Logan McDonald
Pick 9: TRADE to Magpies (with pick 40) in exchange for 2020 1st (14) and 2021 1st.
Pick 14 Oliver Henry
Pick 22: Caleb Poulter
Pick 23: Nathan O'Driscoll
Pick 40: TRADE See above
CAT B Rookies: Tariek Newchurch, James Borlase
PSD: Jackson Hately

 

[Golumless]

You obviously can’t read. I’ll dumb it down for you.

We would trade our Pick 9 and a 2021 second rounder for their Pick 6. They essentially get a 2021 pick for sliding down one position this year.

They’d be mad not to do it unless they were dead keen on Thilthorpe.

Anyway, not going to clog up this thread anymore by arguing with a moron.

Nice fantasy world that you live in

I look forward to whatever explanation you have for a team who went balls to wall to get three first rounders are going to downgrade one of them to get a 2nd next year on the word of another team (after all, there is nothing stopping us from bluffing and taking Perkins), especially as 2nds are firmly in the area where the reward is not worth the risk. Also if Essendon were willing to do that, then they don't want Thilthorpe, so it comes back to why would we do that as we'd get Thilthorpe after their three selections? Paying a 2nd rounder for someone we're going to get anyway is very stupid. If you're trading up you are doing it to beat a team to a player, I.e. if we traded with Gold Coast to beat Essendon to Thilthorpe.

I certainly wouldn't throw stones at a glass house with terms like moron either because this is a playstation trade suggestion that Mego Red would even be embarrassed by. I at least gave you some credit by assuming you were thinking of NGA, which would be a legitimate reason to do this on Essendons side, instead of that garbage.

 

[Crow till I die]

On one of the mock drafts they have us taking

1.Thilthorpe
9.Bruhn
22.Maher
23.Berry
40.Smith

 

[latinoheat]

On one of the mock drafts they have us taking

1.Thilthorpe
9.Bruhn
22.Maher
23.Berry
40.Smith

I’d be happy with that

 

[BrissyCrow]

hmm.. this thread is looking oddly like another thread based on posts so far.

I wonder why that could be...

Yep I did a similar thread about getting peoples thoughts on whether the club made a mistake about not listing Luke Edwards. Raather than have all these differing opinions all over the place I try to get them into one thread and summarise to remove all the discussion that ends up taking over a thread. Every year I try to run this particular thread just to get all the opinions for the draft to see who gets the most correct. But if you think its a waste of time that fine. I guess that seeing as I keeping a summary its my time thats being wasted. But I find it a bit of fun. During the course of the trade/draft period so many people come on in here and start making predictions that are based on inside knowledge. Well this thread will allow us to revisit those predictions. Perhaps there should be a winners badge awarded. Bragging rights.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I think we’ll end doing the rumoured pick swap with collingwood.

1 : McDonald
14: Poulter
22: O’Driscoll
23: Stone
40: Liam Kolar (Hamish special)

 

[LoBu]

I hear we are taking 4 players, to me this means trading out picks 9 & 22.

Either upgrade to Hawks/ Essendon, or downgrade 9 to Collingwood and get into next year.

Gold Coast trade only works with next years' second.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dewy006]

Pick 1: McDonald
Trade Pick 9 and 23 for Collingwood 14 and 16.
Pick 14: Nathan ODriscoll
Pick 16: Luke Pedlar
Pick 23: Caleb Poulter
Pick 40: Will trade out for a pick next year

 

[Murray2503]

Pick 1: Logan McDonald
Pick 9: TRADE to Magpies (with pick 40) in exchange for 2020 1st (14) and 2021 1st.
Pick 14 Oliver Henry
Pick 22: Caleb Poulter
Pick 23: Nathan O'Driscoll
Pick 40: TRADE See above
CAT B Rookies: Tariek Newchurch, James Borlase
PSD: Jackson Hately

McDonald and Henry in the forward line together. Yes thanks. Along with Himmelberg , Stengle, McAdam, Jones, Worrell/Fogarty. Now that would be bloody exciting. Would be the best forward line in the league within 3 years.
Don't know if Magpies would do that pick 9 trade. Will likely need to take Henry at 9 if we want him as I don't think he will be there at 14.

 

[hey shorty]

No idea what we will do, but what I would do:

1. Bid on JUH
2. Bid on Campbell
3. Adelaide - Hollands
4. North - McDonald
5. Hawthorn - Phillips / DGB
6. Gold Coast - Phillips / DGB
7. Swap Essendon’s 7 for our 10 plus a 2021 pick. Bid on Jones.
8. Adelaide - Thilthorpe
9. Essendon - Perkins
10. Essendon - Bruhn
11. Essendon - Reid

I reckon Essendon do the trade because it’s only missing out on 1 player (because they hold 3 consecutive picks) and they know it’ll be Thilthorpe who they might see as an injury/flight risk anyway.

Then we just take whoever is best with the remaining picks but you’d think we’d be a chance of getting some quality there too.

I doubt we're bidding on Campbell that early

 

[1970crow]

My sole prediction is that if we end up with Hollands we’d have traded with Sydney and picked up some 2021 value around mid 20s.

 

[slice]

I doubt we're bidding on Campbell that early

Yeah I don’t think we will either but he looks pretty bloody good. I’d be happy taking the risk that Syd don’t match. If they do match, you’ve at least knocked out pick 3.

 

[Mego Red]

Nice fantasy world that you live in

I look forward to whatever explanation you have for a team who went balls to wall to get three first rounders are going to downgrade one of them to get a 2nd next year on the word of another team (after all, there is nothing stopping us from bluffing and taking Perkins), especially as 2nds are firmly in the area where the reward is not worth the risk. Also if Essendon were willing to do that, then they don't want Thilthorpe, so it comes back to why would we do that as we'd get Thilthorpe after their three selections? Paying a 2nd rounder for someone we're going to get anyway is very stupid. If you're trading up you are doing it to beat a team to a player, I.e. if we traded with Gold Coast to beat Essendon to Thilthorpe.

I certainly wouldn't throw stones at a glass house with terms like moron either because this is a playstation trade suggestion that Mego Red would even be embarrassed by. I at least gave you some credit by assuming you were thinking of NGA, which would be a legitimate reason to do this on Essendons side, instead of that garbage.

This is an embarassing post, Golumless.

Firstly, I don't remember you doing a single post of any value about trading, so I'm not sure why you think you've earned the right to criticise anyone.

Secondly, in this scenario Essendon would be deciding between Thilthorpe (who they probably didn't think would fall to them) or Nik Cox and a 2021 2nd.

We know there's every chance they'll take Thilthorpe and they know we want him, so the question is - what amount of extra value is worth them choosing to take Nik Cox instead of Thilthorpe?

If it's 51/49 choice at their end, then they probably do it. If it's 70/30, they say no. It would be up to us to offer just enough to make them show their hand.

Seriously mate - your analysis in your post is ridiculously rudimentary.

 

[Mego Red]

1 : McDonald
14: Poulter
16: Stone
23: O’Driscoll
40: Durdin