Dr.ALF’s expert assessment of the Cup runners.
PERSIAN PUNCH : Unlike the rest of the refugees in the field, this bloke is actually proven on Australian turf, having been placed behind Jezabeel. But that was last century for God’s sake. The poor old bugger is 9-Y-O. Nevertheless his recent form reads nicely. I’m just not sure how much credence to put on British form.
SKY HEIGHTS : Great run at Caulfied and generally well credentialled. But how often has this horse let his backers down when it really mattered. Besides this, he’s drawn a shocking barrier. I’m also put off by his weight. It takes a really good horse to carry 56.5 in a Melbourne Cup and win. I mean a REALLY good horse. Sky Heights just has too many convictions for mine.
UNIVERSAL PRINCE : Has had more excuses than Hawthorn in his last couple of outings. In the Cox Plate he was supposed to have lost because he had the hots for Sunline. They should have called it the C.o.c.k.s Plate, hey …

In the McKinnon he was supposed to have injured himself at the start of the race, then somehow made a miraculous recovery in the last 600m. Sounds more like a classic case of saving him for Tuesday to me. Don’t be surprised if he runs a very big race. But if he does, Sheehan’s ride on him in the McKinnon will go down in history as the most diabolical ride since J.J.Miller pulled up Galilee in the same race in 1966.
CAITANO : Did nothing in the Cox Plate and his O/S record looks ordinary to me.
GIVE THE SLIP : Not a real top-liner going by his form. I’m prepared to risk him.
MARIENBARD : Ditto.
KAAPSTAD WAY : Has never won beyond 2000m and did nothing in the McKinnon. Was going OK about a month ago but that form won’t help him here. Not for me.
YIPPYIO : Great run last year … but he’s a year older now and his form’s not as good.
FREEMASON : Can’t have him on his McKinnon run. And as much as I respect his trainer, you’d have to say that the cerise army has a pretty poor record in this race.
CURATA STORM : Curata Who? This horse somehow won a big race at Rosehill back in April and has done jack **** since. Ran stone motherless in the Caulfield Cup.
Mr. PRUDENT : One of the few proven two-milers in the field, and you have to respect that. But how can you back a horse that ran last in the Geelong Cup? Expect him to tail out for a big finish. But this bloke is no Kiwi.
PASTA EXPRESS : I’d prefer him in my bolognaise sauce.
ETHEREAL : Definitely the class factor in this. En-zedder who cleaned up in Brisbane earlier in the year, winning the Queensland Oaks. This latest trans-Tasman raid has been even more successful, with an excellent placing behind the mighty Northerly at Caulfied, followed by that gutsy Cup win at the heath the following week. Has been fair-dinkum pitch-forked into this race with 52kg. She’s drawn OK at 13. The only negative is that she’s untried at the distance … BUT this is one of those years when there are only three proven two-milers in the field. And one of those is a 9 year old, one is an 8 year old, while the other has been racing like a woolly goat. So, I’m prepared to take a chance on this mare at the distance.
HILL OF GRACE : Gee. There’s nothing wrong with the form of this girl … except that she doesn’t seem to win many. Has been close up in top company at her last three runs. But has never won beyond 2040m. And the bad barrier won’t help.
INAFLURY : The sort of horse that can ruin a jockey’s reputation. Avoid her like anthrax. She’ll pull like Fitzroy James Dio and will be the first horse beaten. Expect to see her going backwards at the 800m.
BIG PAT : How the hell did this thing get to be favourite? Won the St.Leger at the Valley. Big hairy deal. Won the South Australian Derby. So what? Made up ground to run a distant third in the Valley Cup. Bravo. This is a “talking” favourite if ever there was one. Should help to create some value among the genuine chances.
REENACT : As they say in the classics, “others make more appeal”.
KARASI : This could have been a genuine lightweight chance at good odds had it not been for the wide barrier. Has been consistent over this distance, including a Brisbane Cup placing. Unfortunately, I think the barrier will kill his chances here. When he won at Geelong he was handily placed throughout. That’s very hard when you’ve drawn 19. But if Glenn Boss is able to fluke a nice sit, this horse could put some big value into the trifecta.
MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU : I’m expecting his trainer, M.D.Moroney, to eventually become the most successful trainer in this race since Bart. Will this be Cup No.2 for the Cups King of the 21st Century? I’m not all that confident. He couldn’t have possibly had a more cushy run on Saturday. And the second placegetter (Spirit of Westbury) meets him 3kg better at the weights for sitting in the death. But I still expect this horse to be not far away at the finish.
PROPHET’S KISS : Well named … because you can kiss your profits goodbye if you back this one. Has been running on when it’s all over in shorter races and I suggest she’ll be running on when it’s all over in this. She’ll be the one just out of camera range, running a fast-finishing eighth.
SPIRIT OF WESTBURY : Looks beautifully weighted for this. Well beaten by Rain Gauge at the Valley, but is 2.5 kg better off at the weights … and the winner has drawn the bleachers. Then ran a top race against Maythehorsebewithu … and is meeting that horse (don’t ask me to type it again) 3 kg better after having a much tougher run. Must be a serious query at the distance however. And I don’t think I could stand seeing that little prick ride another big race winner.
RAIN GAUGE : Strong win at the Valley and had been racing well prior to that. But that barrier really is diabolical. Will have to come from a very long way back and will need a very solidly run race to have any chance.
RUM : A waste of barrier 1 really because this horse is a plodder who gets well back. Looked the best of a pretty unimpressive lot (from a Cup point of view) in the McKinnon. Might come into this very strongly if there is a lot of rain. He did run a close third to Sunline on a heavy track at Caulfield when resuming back in September.
CELESTIAL SHOW : Great run at cricket-score odds in the Caulfield Cup. Was this a fluke? Maybe not, because she was only narrowly beaten by Inaflury three starts back at Caulfield. She’s got no weight. She’s drawn reasonably. OK. So why can’t she win? Maybe the fact that she’s never won beyond 2200 could put some doubts on her at the trip. But then she did run 7th in this race last year, so there goes that theory. Really this Cup field is as weak as piss … so you’d have to give this mare a real chance.
Dr.ALF’s CUP TRIFECTA
1. ETHEREAL
2. SPIRIT OF WESTBURY
3. RUM
Other chances: UNIVERSAL PRINCE, HILL OF GRACE, KARASI, MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU, RAIN GAUGE, CELESTIAL SHOW.