Opinion Who wins the Premiership? (Updated poll - Updated for Prelims))

[PowerForGood]

Right, again some simple mathematics.

Richmond are paying $4 for the flag.

If they are $1.3 to beat St. Kilda on the weekend, and start $1.9 equal faves with Port the following week, that would mean they start $1.60 against (likely) Brisbane in the Grand Final.

I would have thought that the likelihood of different opponents would factor into the Tigers odds.
The chances of a Geelong or Collingwood opponent would have Richmond at shorter odds than it would be if you knew it was Brisbane.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Right, again some simple mathematics.

Richmond are paying $4 for the flag.

If they are $1.3 to beat St. Kilda on the weekend, and start $1.9 equal faves with Port the following week, that would mean they start $1.60 against (likely) Brisbane in the Grand Final.

You said Richmond would start 1.65 against Port.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Port have been the best team all year and deserve to be favourites, but there's plenty of water to go under the bridge yet.

 

[Papa G]

There are other factors in the frame with odds and it isn't that simple. If say Richmond were to just scrape across the line with Dusty doing a hammy, it would effect their odds for the following week over say a 10 goal win with Lynch kicking 7.

 

[Fadge]

There are other factors in the frame with odds and it isn't that simple. If say Richmond were to just scrape across the line with Dusty doing a hammy, it would effect their odds for the following week over say a 10 goal win with Lynch kicking 7.

Correct. But we are basing the odds off of what we know now.

 

[Fadge]

You said Richmond would start 1.65 against Port.

In the context of thread, I said Richmond would need to start at $1.65 against Port to justify their $4 flag odds.

That's why I'm saying Richmond's flag odds are well under the odds. I am all over Port for the flag and have been for the past two months, and should Richmond get over St. Kilda on the weekend, I reckon fair odds for the Preliminary Final would be something in the order of Port $1.70 Richmond $2.10.

 

[RichLeMonde]

I think Port. The Lions fans will scoff but I actually think Richmond would take the Lions in a GF pretty comfortably, with Lynch in, Prestia and Edwards with a couple of games under their belt, and a sense of the Lions’ tactics. Unfortunately I don’t think we’ll beat Port, who are playing the best footy and are so settled.

 

[paulige]

In the context of thread, I said Richmond would need to start at $1.65 against Port to justify their $4 flag odds.

That's why I'm saying Richmond's flag odds are well under the odds. I am all over Port for the flag and have been for the past two months, and should Richmond get over St. Kilda on the weekend, I reckon fair odds for the Preliminary Final would be something in the order of Port $1.70 Richmond $2.10.

Agreed.

$1.31 this week, and they'll be ~$2 against their most likely opponent (Brisbane) in the granny. Slightly shorter against the Pies/Cats at the Gabba. Weighted average probably comes out to $1.90 in the GF (if they make it).

Currently paying $4.50 on sportsbet, which would mean entering the game against Port at around $1.80, which is wrong IMO.

They should be paying closer to $5 for the flag, I think.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I think it's a bit of a shame we won't see Port v Richmond in the GF. The last game between the two teams was very entertaining, Port was the better team, probably should of won by a bit more but Richmond had players out and Port had the home field advantage. Bring those Richmond players back and play it at a neutral venue and it would of been a barnstormer.

 

[Fadge]

I think it's a bit of a shame we won't see Port v Richmond in the GF. The last game between the two teams was very entertaining, Port was the better team, probably should of won by a bit more but Richmond had players out and Port had the home field advantage. Bring those Richmond players back and play it at a neutral venue and it would of been a barnstormer.

Not to worry.

The battle of the Magpies in the Grand Final will be a ripper!

 

[Angus Young]

Think if its Lions v Richmond .... Richmond win
If it's Lions V Port.... Lions win.

 

[MrChow]

Sounds like not many people think Geelong , St.Kilda or Collingwood will do it?




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[Fadge]

Sounds like not many people think Geelong , St.Kilda or Collingwood will do it?




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Everyone loves a favourite.

Port v. Collingwood for mine.

 

[Bazzar]

Port have been the best team all year and deserve to be favourites, but there's plenty of water to go under the bridge yet.

Since 1993, only eight minor premiers have gone on to win the premiership.
1984-1987 the longest run of six
Hawks the last in 2013, Port did it in 2004.
Out of the last 6 flags, 3 were runners up and 3 finished 3rd (Tiges one of each)

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Agreed.

$1.31 this week, and they'll be ~$2 against their most likely opponent (Brisbane) in the granny. Slightly shorter against the Pies/Cats at the Gabba. Weighted average probably comes out to $1.90 in the GF (if they make it).

Currently paying $4.50 on sportsbet, which would mean entering the game against Port at around $1.80, which is wrong IMO.

They should be paying closer to $5 for the flag, I think.

Bookies also manipulate the flow of money in the market to try and ensure an even spread and minimise risk, this can and does affect odds offered. They may all be holding a lot on Richmond currently so keeping them safe as they don't want a blow out result. Bookies don't look just at the odds of something happening from this point in time forward, they have to balance the total held across the market, and at what odds.

 

[HTT]

Agreed.

$1.31 this week, and they'll be ~$2 against their most likely opponent (Brisbane) in the granny. Slightly shorter against the Pies/Cats at the Gabba. Weighted average probably comes out to $1.90 in the GF (if they make it).

Currently paying $4.50 on sportsbet, which would mean entering the game against Port at around $1.80, which is wrong IMO.

They should be paying closer to $5 for the flag, I think.

GF odds the missing link
$1.31 to win this week
$2.70 to make the GF

So we come to about $2.06 to beat Port in the prelim IF we make it

Flag odds obviously $4.50, given odds of making the GF it means we are considered about $1.67 to win the GF IF we make it.

Of course that's just treating odds as a de facto probability, not a market.

 

[KissKiss]

What a load of bollocks.

$1 each way from the uninformed gambler isn't going to do much to the market when you have your pro punters betting in tens of thousands of dollars.

Are the Saints over the odds at circa $3.75 for Friday night's game? If they were, the pro punters would jump on board to make sure they weren't overs.

Are Collingwood under the odds for the flag at $11, when in comparison you get a little better than $4 about Richmond having to win the same amount of games?

The existence of informed and professional punters ensure markets generally land on the correct odds.

But when you are talking large events, you get large amounts of uninformed gamblers. Its not one $1 extra its more like an extra 10-50,000 extra $10 bets. And you also get a larger uninformed bets too. At that point it does start to shift things. Its not necessarily a lot but it might shift the line 1-2 points or move the odds from $3.70 to $3.75.

Talking of St Kilda I believe there was some stuff that came out a year or two back about they were a team that beat the line the most. Is there something to the fact that their smaller supporter base was most often overweighed the opposition.

You get some balancing out by pro punters, you get more balancing by the gambling companies to minimise their risk as well, and then you get gaps opened up by different companies as every thing gets weighed against each other.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Since 1993, only eight minor premiers have gone on to win the premiership.
1984-1987 the longest run of six
Hawks the last in 2013, Port did it in 2004.
Out of the last 6 flags, 3 were runners up and 3 finished 3rd (Tiges one of each)

I feel a minor premier is due to win it.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Think if its Lions v Richmond .... Richmond win
If it's Lions V Port.... Lions win.

Opposite for me. sadly I think Port will roll the Tigers

 

[footy75]

Sounds like not many people think Geelong , St.Kilda or Collingwood will do it?




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Besides Saints I think it's open. Hard to pick.

 

[ClintEastwood]

Since 1993, only eight minor premiers have gone on to win the premiership.
1984-1987 the longest run of six
Hawks the last in 2013, Port did it in 2004.

Since 1993, Port has won the premisership EVERY TIME they won the minor premiership.

See how stats work yet?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Agreed.

$1.31 this week, and they'll be ~$2 against their most likely opponent (Brisbane) in the granny. Slightly shorter against the Pies/Cats at the Gabba. Weighted average probably comes out to $1.90 in the GF (if they make it).

Currently paying $4.50 on sportsbet, which would mean entering the game against Port at around $1.80, which is wrong IMO.

They should be paying closer to $5 for the flag, I think.

If Richmond managed to get through St Kilda and Port at AO, they would be considered in hot form and by the time the GF is there they would be solid favorites, even against Brisbane they would be $1.6 or lower I reckon.

 

[X AE A12]

Yeah as much fun as the banter leading up to last game was while the Tiges fans claimed they were living in the Lions heads rent free and now with all of their excuses why they lost, they are still the team to beat.

Geelong's play is so uninspiring and bland to watch, yet can be effective with a couple of game breakers in their team. Saints I am going to and would like to see get up for their fans but with their outs it might be too tough. Pies every chance no doubt, and as a footy fan disappointed whoever if anyone beats the pies will do it without Sidebottom who is so pivotal to their scoring chains when they're up and about. Port too every chance and have so many threats to goal and in form, hungry players that any team will need to make sure they restrict them and take their own opportunities, hopefully thats my Lions

 

[ShadeyP]

This thread is going to look hilarious if Richmond are bundled out by St Kilda on Friday.

sweet tears of laughter .

 

[My Tilly]

GF odds the missing link
$1.31 to win this week
$2.70 to make the GF

So we come to about $2.06 to beat Port in the prelim IF we make it

Flag odds obviously $4.50, given odds of making the GF it means we are considered about $1.67 to win the GF IF we make it.

Of course that's just treating odds as a de facto probability, not a market.

Yeh, can't see the bookies making you favourites against Port Adelaide.
It will be similar odds to the Geelong v Collingwood game. Port $1.75ish v Tigers $2.15ish