Who's closer to a flag? Adelaide, Port Adelaide or Fremantle?

Who wins their next flag before the others?


  • Total voters
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Freomaniac

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Fremantle's best 22 is as good as any. Their problem is they have arguably the most injury prone spine in the league. Hogan, Pearce, Lobb and Darcy miss way too many games for Freo to be able to achieve any semblance of consistency. If those guys stayed fit (along with Hamling and Taberner), and if Longmuir ends up a decent coach (which is anyone's guess really), they should be pushing for finals really.

They could have made finals in 2019 if it weren't for injuries. Were definitely on track halfway through the season. They sat 2nd after 6 games, and were still top 8 when it hit Round 15. Their season just fell apart in the last 8 weeks of the season.

I actually picked Port here, only because I am doubtful of Fremantle's ability to keep their players on the park. But if they can fix that side of things, I would easily be picking them for the next flag from this group
Bingo.

you described freo pretty well...

Freo are inconsistent. Had they had a good injury run like the Saints in 2016-7, They would of snuck into a finals spot.

Freo could pinch 8th spot with 9 wins and 8 defeats this year.
 

Virgin Dog

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Means little. Plenty of teams have had hot streaks for parts of a season. Freo aren't near the best teams right now.
Is the majority of a season really just a "hot streak"? Or was that more indicative of their quality, prior to being decimated by injury?
 

juss

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Is the majority of a season really just a "hot streak"? Or was that more indicative of their quality, prior to being decimated by injury?
You said third of the way through. I didn't realise a third now meant the majority of a season.

It's evidence of good form, nothing more. They aren't on par with the best 22s of the best sides.
 

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Virgin Dog

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You said third of the way through. I didn't realise a third now meant the majority of a season.

It's evidence of good form, nothing more. They aren't on par with the best 22s of the best sides.
I said they were top 2 a third of the way through, and still in top 8 majority of the season. Did you realise that part?
 

Corkintheocean

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Aug 15, 2009
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None of the three sides have the quality currently to win a flag.

Adelaide are most likely to rip it down and start from scratch, which imo makes them closest.
 

Van_Dyke

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Jun 7, 2015
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I’d say Port, Freo and then a gap to Adelaide unless Nicks works miracles. that said if Hinkley gets another deal from Port and Longmuir turns into a good coach than Port and Freo would switch pretty easily imo
It's not. Didn't read the rest.
At Round 14 last season they were in the top 6, and the run of shocking form to end the season came as a result of basically the entire spine changing in the space of 4 weeks (Pearce, Lobb, Taberner and Hogan all lost to injury, leaving Hamling as the only member of the spine for the whole season). Whether or not that 22 can get on the park and stay there is a massive question mark, but it could do some damage
 

juss

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I said they were top 2 a third of the way through, and still in top 8 majority of the season. Did you realise that part?
It doesn't matter. Stack their best 22 against the best teams in the competition, look at the names side by side and objectively ask yourself which you'd take. You'll find the best teams have them covered on most lines, indicating their best 22 might be good, it's solid, but it's not equal best as you first claimed.
 

Red Bull

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Fremantle don’t inspire any confidence that they have what’s required to go all the way.

Adelaide couldn’t be further away.
An organisation in denial and a total shambles.

Port have the DNA if and when they get their act together.

Port get the nod.
 

Freomaniac

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Fremantle don’t inspire any confidence that they have what’s required to go all the way.

Adelaide couldn’t be further away.
An organisation in denial and a total shambles.

Port have the DNA if and when they get their act together.

Port get the nod.
Me being a freo fan on here.

I find it funny you said that the dockers dont inspire any confidence.

Freos form are extreme on both ends in 2019. This Freo side in 2019 lost to Carlton at home without carltons best player in Patrick Cripps not playing because of injury. On the other hand, this same Freo side managed to fluke a win vs Collingwood at the MCG.


I dont expect Freo to get a Flag with this current team or as Justin Longmuir as coach. I do expect an eventual 3-4 year finals run with this current freo side. But thats if if freo ever get a good injury run.
 

Joao

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Our best 22 is competitive, it isn't top 4 though. Also largely irrelevant since too many of them spend 50%+ of the season injured.

I am in no position to judge whether that will change but I am not optimistic, especially about Hogan and to a lesser extent, Pearce.
 

It Just Is

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With a good run of injuries and luck I would hope Port are there or there abouts for the next few years but realistically our next best shot at a flag is likely to be when Rozee is 24-27.

Where that puts us in comparison to Freo is hard to say. If they could find away to get a fully fit Fyfe into September then who knows.
 

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Freomaniac

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With a good run of injuries and luck I would hope Port are there or there abouts for the next few years but realistically our next best shot at a flag is likely to be when Rozee is 24-27.

Where that puts us in comparison to Freo is hard to say. If they could find away to get a fully fit Fyfe into September then who knows.
So Connor rozee just turned 20. Duursma turns 20 next month. Willem Drew turned 21 on october last year.

So your saying Ports window is going to be 2024-27? Sounds about right.
 

Freomaniac

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I’d say Port, Freo and then a gap to Adelaide unless Nicks works miracles. that said if Hinkley gets another deal from Port and Longmuir turns into a good coach than Port and Freo would switch pretty easily imo
At Round 14 last season they were in the top 6, and the run of shocking form to end the season came as a result of basically the entire spine changing in the space of 4 weeks (Pearce, Lobb, Taberner and Hogan all lost to injury, leaving Hamling as the only member of the spine for the whole season). Whether or not that 22 can get on the park and stay there is a massive question mark, but it could do some damage
Our best 22 is competitive, it isn't top 4 though. Also largely irrelevant since too many of them spend 50%+ of the season injured.

I am in no position to judge whether that will change but I am not optimistic, especially about Hogan and to a lesser extent, Pearce.
As fellow freo supporters, Making finals last season would of been tough.

A new coach in Justin Longmuir might set Freo either a year back or possibly a year forward.

I dont expect freo to make finals this year. With each side playing 17 games, It would be nice to sneak into a finals spot with a 9-8 or 10-7 record.

If Freo dont make finals this year, I hope freo has a good 3 year run of finals starting hopefully next season in 2021. Would be good to play finals from 2021-23-24 even if its 3-4 elimination finals.

Looking at Freos best 22 and I will look at certain players in the list that are aged 27 or over bracket: Joel Hamling, Nathan Wilson, David Mundy, Stephen Hill, Reece Conca, Nathan Fyfe, Travis Coyler, Michael Walters, Matt Tarberner, Rory Lobb and Brandon Matera. Thats 11 players.

Mundy is 34 and should be gone this season. Stephen Hill turned 30 last month and is contracted until next season. the Other 9 players are in that 27-29 year old bracket and all will be phased out over a 2-4 year period depending on the team and certain players are performing.


Then you got the next in line, The 2016 draftees Logue, Darcy, Cox, Ryan, Duman. Its 2020 now and all 5 are in their 4th season. Ryan was the 21 year old mature ager, the others were 18-19 year old draftees. Then you got the 2017 draftees: Brayshaw, Cerra, Crowden, Giro. All 4 blokes were 18-19 years old in 2017 draft are now 21-22 years old.

you also have guys like Aish, Acres, Blakely and Darcy tucker all currently between 24-26 years old.

So the Age group of the team is well spreaded.
 

philthy05

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Port hit on multiple players in multiple drafts which has always been a key to flag building sides.

2012-wines clurey
2013-Dbj Amon - traded impey
2014-Traded - Howard Austin Frampton
2015-Houston , bonner
2016-Marshall , Powell-Pepper, ladhams , Drew, lienert, atley
2017-Hayes Farrell Patmore Garner
2018-Rozee butters duursma (Grundy woodcock)
2019-Bergman Georgiades Williams mead

I think that is pretty good drafting. 2016-2019 alone could produce 13-17 top 25 of list players.

Where this group can go will come down to development and coaching.
 

Freomaniac

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Port hit on multiple players in multiple drafts which has always been a key to flag building sides.

2012-wines clurey
2013-Dbj Amon - traded impey
2014-Traded - Howard Austin Frampton
2015-Houston , bonner
2016-Marshall , Powell-Pepper, ladhams , Drew, lienert, atley
2017-Hayes Farrell Patmore Garner
2018-Rozee butters duursma (Grundy woodcock)
2019-Bergman Georgiades Williams mead

I think that is pretty good drafting. 2016-2019 alone could produce 13-17 top 25 of list players.

Where this group can go will come down to development and coaching.
Not a bad set of young kids coming thorugh.

If you get 2-5 solid players each year, that means in a 5 year stretch you have 10-25 players recruited in a 5 year stretch.

2016 draft wasnt a bad haul.

I knew Jackson Mead was going to be taken by Port Last year and yes I know he is the Son of Darren Mead. Played well in the under 18s grand final a couple of years ago with woodvile west torrens against South Adelaide. WWT won 12.18.90 to 12.13.85. Mead got 4 goals and 20 disposals that game.
 

Freomaniac

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Freo's forward line could be special if it lives up to its potential. Could also turn to sh*t as well.
Bit of a Half full glass of water about Freos Forward line.

Its not the worst forward line, its not the best either.

Its very versatile to be honest. And this is not even mentioning Jesse Hogan.

Rory Lobb we got from GWS. He played 75 games and kicked 64 goals. His best haul was 29 goals and 16 behinds from 24 games in 2016. So yeah he can kick 25-30 goals in a season. A solid FF/ruckman.

Matt Taberner is the John Butcher at our club. easily the most talked about forward in the freo board. the bloke is 197cm and 90-95 kg. 75 goals form 71 games. can play as a FF can also play as a CHF as a roaming 2nd tall or on a forward flank. his best season was 18 goals 6 behinds from 17 games in 2016. Is a solid chest and over head marker but sprays his set shots. He looked good in some games, bad in others, but fits in a forward structure.

Last 3 years he looked like on track to have a 25-30 goal season.

In 2017, He kicks 11 goals and 6 behinds from 8 games. he goes back to peel in the 2nd half of the season. He lead Peels Goalkicking with 41 goals and kicked 2 goals in the 2017 WAFL grand final.

In 2018, he kicks 10 goals 7 behinds from 9 games and missed like 8-10 game mid season as he fractured a metatarsal bone in his left foot.

In 2019, he kicks 13 goals and 10 behinds from 9 games. Gets a foot injury in that round 9 game vs essendon and is out for the season.

I dont mind if he kicks 2-4 goals in a game. I dont mind if he is held to a handful of disposals and is held goalless if either cam McCarthy, Walters or Matera leads the team goal kicking with 3-5 goals.

Cam McCarthy is was badly used in 2017 and 2018. It took Ross Lyon 2 years to know he wasnt a spear head but a 2nd or 3rd tall. The bloke kicked 19 goals and 17 behinds from 12 games as a 2nd or 3rd tall when Lobb or taberner was double teamed. He is out of contract this year.

Brennan cox has played 34 games and kicked 27 goals. He is a roating CHF/CHB. His best season goal wise was 2018. He kicked 18 goals and 14 behinds in 2018 including 4 goals vs the crows in Perth that got us over the line. He is out of contract this year too and I rate him.

Brandon matera is a forward pocket. Last season he finally kicked 30 goals last season. He should of done it 3 times at the suns.

In 2014, he kicked 27 goals and 17 behinds from 16 games.

In 2016, he kicked 24 goals and 15 behinds from 15 games.

In 2017, he kicked 22 goals and 12 behinds from 12 games.

Michael Walters has gone from a Forward pocket to a rotating Forward flanker/ winger/ bench player and still kicked 40 goals from 22 games and got All Australian.


So theres talent there. Getting a minimal injury run is the issue. We dont need one dominant KPF to kick 60-80 goals, just need 2 ok tall forwards to kick 60-80 between them or 30-40 goals each.
 

Schauermann

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Cant honestly see either side winning a flag in the next 5 years.

But....

I could have never predicted in 2015 that the next 3 flags would be W.Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast.

Its a crazy comp.

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Even 3 years is pretty long in the AFL. We added 32 players to our list over the last 3 years. Und like you already said a lots of surprises have happened recently. Probably even more then in other times with the competition being so even atm. But history suggests alot happens over a few years in all times. And 5 xears are unpredictable. Something to like about the competition.
 

Freomaniac

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Cant honestly see either side winning a flag in the next 5 years.

But....

I could have never predicted in 2015 that the next 3 flags would be W.Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast.

Its a crazy comp.

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Any team can realistically can go from bottom 4 to grand finalist in 5 years with the current rules of drafting, trading and free agency.
 

eastfreo75

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Players over 30 years old
Fremantle - Mundy
Adelaide - Mackay, Gibbs, Sloane
Port - Westoff,Gray, Boak, Rockcliff, Ebert

Best 22 between 26-29 years old

Fremantle - Hill, Walters, Fyfe, Lobb, Taberner, Conca, Hamling, Wilson

Adelaide - Walker, Lynch, Talia, Hartigan, Laird, Smith, Brown, B Crouch

Port- Dixon, Harlett, Jonas, Motlop, Watts, Cluey, Lycett,

Best 25 between 22-25 years old

Fremantle - Hogan, Hughes, McCarthy, Bewley, Pearce, Acres, Aish, Ryan, Blakely,
Tucker, Duiman, Logue

Adelaide - Kelly, Knight, M Crouch,O’Brien, Milera

Port - Wines, Burton, Amon, Byrne-Jones, Houston, Power-Pepper, Bonner,

Best 30 players between 18-21

Fremantle - Brayshaw, Cerra, Darcy, Young, Serong, Henry, Cox, Sturt,

Adelaide - Gallaci, Himmelberg, Poholike, Davis, McHenry, Strengle, Murphy, Fogarty, Jones,

Port - Marshall, Georgiades, Butters, Duuxsma, Rozee, Drew, Atley, Bergman,
 

Piggy Smalls

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Fremantle and Port both seem to have similar age demographics with some very good veterans and promising youngsters with very little in between. In my opinion it is the teams with the most solid group of 100-150 gamers that really contend consistently.

Freo beat GWS in Canberra and Collingwood in Melbourne last season before the injuries exposed a severe lack of depth. Our best last year was very competitive. We would need a huge turn around in fortune with injuries to really contend but if we could keep our best 22 on the park we’d be playing finals. I’m sure most clubs would feel the same way. There does seem to be some serious talent about to emerge in Young, Serong and Sturt as well as potentially Henry and Valente by season’s end.

Port looked very good in patches last year but seem to have an ability to not hit the scoreboard for alarmingly long periods of time during matches. They probably have a higher percentage of older players in their best 22 than Freo so they may need to strike soon, which they seem more poised to. Some of their kids look like serious future A graders.

Adelaide seem to have some serious issues to contend with. Their fall from grace is similar to Freo from 2016. Once the playing group isn’t all in with the vision and culture it all goes south very quickly. I fear that they are a long way off but I thought West Coast going into 2018 were too so who really knows.
 

Freomaniac

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Fremantle and Port both seem to have similar age demographics with some very good veterans and promising youngsters with very little in between. In my opinion it is the teams with the most solid group of 100-150 gamers that really contend consistently.

Freo beat GWS in Canberra and Collingwood in Melbourne last season before the injuries exposed a severe lack of depth. Our best last year was very competitive. We would need a huge turn around in fortune with injuries to really contend but if we could keep our best 22 on the park we’d be playing finals. I’m sure most clubs would feel the same way. There does seem to be some serious talent about to emerge in Young, Serong and Sturt as well as potentially Henry and Valente by season’s end.

Port looked very good in patches last year but seem to have an ability to not hit the scoreboard for alarmingly long periods of time during matches. They probably have a higher percentage of older players in their best 22 than Freo so they may need to strike soon, which they seem more poised to. Some of their kids look like serious future A graders.

Adelaide seem to have some serious issues to contend with. Their fall from grace is similar to Freo from 2016. Once the playing group isn’t all in with the vision and culture it all goes south very quickly. I fear that they are a long way off but I thought West Coast going into 2018 were too so who really knows.
Well you usually a decent side if you got a lot guys with 100-150 games under the belt. That is basically a lot of blokes in their prime years of the 24-29 year old range. Freo has around 7-9 players in the best 22 in that 27-29 year old range.

As I Said about Port. Only made finals once in the 2015-19 period and that was in 2017 when they easily stormed in to finals at 5th. In reality, Port should of made finals each year from 2015-19. Worse thing you can ever do in the AFL is Finish 9th. At least 8th gives you finals even if you stumble with a team with 5-8 players in your best 22 out and get belted by 60-80 points in an elim final. At least those younget guys in the 18-21 year bracket get to play finals.

I didnt mind freo finishing 14th with 8 wins in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons. At least freo had a top 5 pick to use to get a talented kid or trade for a decent player or trade pick 5 to get multiple picks. Freo used pick 5 on Adam cerra in 2017. In 2018, freo traded pick 5 and that 2019 3rd rounder to Port for picks 11, 13, 31 and 49, An excellent trade for freo.

Crows fall in 2017-18 is no way similar to Freos 2015-6. To this day, I am still bitter about Freos 2016 season. They were no way a 0-10 side. Had they got 7-8 wins in 2016, Then I wouldnt of been as upset or frustrated. It was an ageing squad and crippling injuries to certain players. Forutnately, 2016 was a fluke as Freo got 8 wins in 2017. With the crows, they finished top with 15 wins and a draw when in 2016, that would not of got you a top 4 spot. In 2018 Crows got 12 wins in certain years, Is enough to get a finals spot. they lost to Port by 5 points, and lost to freo by 3 points. turn both those losses in close wins and they finish 7th, GWS get 8th and Cats finish 9th.
 

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