Well having just missed out on a GF buy a kick, and with Rozee, Duursma Butters et al, wharfie supporters are convinced they are a shoe-in for not only a flag, but a dynasty.Disagree.
Adelaide is looking at 6-10 years from now - Beginning of the rebuild. If we get it right. It could be mid 2020s.
Port Adelaide is looking at 8-12 years from now - 2020 was their last shot. Their older players are about to hit that cliff, and their youth isnt consistent enough. Their youth is certainly good enough, but it isnt there yet, and by the time it is. The list profile is shot and they're at the bottom clawing their way back. Port's probably a better chance at winning the flag when their window reopens. As the Crows would have to hit everything perfect. But the Crows will reach the window sooner, if you know what I mean.
Fremantle though? 10+ years - You didnt bottom out hard enough. Youll be a 6-10 team with this team. Unless Fyfe and Walters play lights out for an entire season, you wont be any better for the next 4 years. Youll have to go through another rebuild and actually get a team who can take you to the top.
All 3 clubs are in a bad position. But Adelaide's in the best point in their cycle to get back there sooner.
Pretty easy call to make with a tongue firmly in your cheek.Only 5 clubs haven't won a premiership in the last 37 years. And especially GWS and GC haven't been around all that long. So a big call to predict 3 clubs to not do so in the next 37 years.
I stated a historical fact.That said, 5 teams haven't won in the last 37 years. I said 3 won't in the next 37. Seems just as likely if not more. Not really a big call.
Yeah not arguing that, again, my original post was a joke. I'm just saying (and I'm not mathematician) wouldn't 3/18 teams not winning in 37 years (with all teams equal) be more likely than the 5/16 in the 37 years previous? I might be wrong, and I'll accept that if I am, I just don't see it as THAT big of a call considering 5 didn't win one the previous 37 years.I stated a historical fact.
Naming 3 teams to not win a premeirship in the next 37 years is a very big call...
With all clubs being equal the mathematical chance for this to happen is around 0,1%. ((17/18)^37)^3
When you say 3 teams won't win its probably likely. But you said Adelaide, Port and Freo won't win one, big difference to 3 random teams.You're saying its a big call, I'm saying it basically already happened the last 37 years so it's entirely possible.
Well, you would need to make a modell to simulate inequality for all those future years. Being able to do that with some accuracy probably would earn me big money in betting or stock exchange...but the teams aren't equal though are they? So how does that affect the maths?
Fair enough, that makes sense. I had forgotten my own original parameters and just defaulted to 3 random. 3 random not winning a flag in 37 would be more likely than 5 not in 37 though yeah? Or am I reallllly stupid?big difference to 3 random teams.
Get cracking then. I'll fund it. We'll be millionaires come next year.Being able to do that with some accuracy probably would earn me big money in betting or stock exchange...
As always I have no idea who is going to win a flag but...Port Adelaide.
They have a healthy mix of veterans/youth in their squad.
Whoever suggested they're furthest away because they haven't started their rebuild yet is ridiculous.
It's like how in 2015 we were behind Carlton and Essendon in terms of winning a flag because we hadn't started our rebuild.
I originally voted the crows when i voted and I will stick with that crazy prediction.Well having just missed out on a GF buy a kick, and with Rozee, Duursma Butters et al, wharfie supporters are convinced they are a shoe-in for not only a flag, but a dynasty.
We are assembling a good young squad, but we are easily the furthest away from a flag of these 3 teams.I originally voted the crows when i voted and I will stick with that crazy prediction.
After seeing what recruited in this recent national draft, I see some hope for the crows.
Riley Thilthorpe was definitely a player the crows needed.
I'm a south Adelaide fan in the SANFL and I have posted on the crows board they got a good kid in Brayden cook.
Not a bad bunch of locals coming through
Stupid post.Port and Freo didn't tank hard enough
Crows are probably on by analysis the furthest away from the 3 clubs. Sure port are infront now but they are not certain to win a flag under their current team.We are assembling a good young squad, but we are easily the furthest away from a flag of these 3 teams.
Freo are a couple of years ahead in rebuild, whilst Port are in the premiership window.