I'm with the mare at this stage. I just can't forget the media jumping off her last year, and then she walked in.
My thoughts:
1 - Northerly: You can't knock 10 wins and four placings from 15 starts. This is a class animal who will take a position. D Oliver is a genius, and if it comes down to the jockeys making the difference, Northerly wins.
2 - Silvano: Obviously a top liner, but as Starchild points out, it is Breeders Cup time, and with winning American experience (Arlington Millions, no slackers race that one) you would have expected him to be there. Key factors are horse and jockey having their first sight of the Valley, which is amongst the most "specialised" tracks in the country. Some horses just can't go there, be it the tight track or the StrathAyr. I've got a feeling Silvano will get into silly odds tomorrow (and that's anything less than 4-1 in this field), and I'm happy to risk him.
3 - Caitano: If anyone can point me in the direction of the last horse to win a Cox Plate when it was set for the Melbourne Cup, I'd be most appreciative. Maybe Kingston Town (1982) or Dulcify (1979), but we're talking about freaks with those two. Cant have him.
4 - Referral: He ran a place last year, but that was seven lengths from the winner. A similar finish will have him sixth or seventh this year.
5 - King Keitel: Hard to see how this horse gets a run while two others are knocked back. Very good neddy at his best, but he's been up forever and is at the end of his tether. No.
6 - Universal Prince: The trap horse. Have a look at the winning percentages of Sunline (69%), Northerly (67%), Viscount (43%) and Silvano (44%). The hallmark of a top wfa racehorse. Universal Prince has only saluted six times in twenty starts. 30%. Don't forget that most of those were restricted to his age group, and the 2000 three-year-old crop is not an especially good one (note that there is no other four year old in the race, usually the age where a wfa horse is at or near its top). Universal Prince has a great wfa form line for a Melbourne Cup horse, and could run a place here, but I'm prepared to say that it just doesn't have the class to beat this field.
7 - Sunline: She's brilliant anywhere else, but at the Valley she has two more gears. The wide draw will actually work in her favour, because she'll have to work across horses inside her to take a spot and won't be cluttered in the run. Watch for her to take off at the 800m again this year, to try and counteract the supposed advantage that the others have in finishing speed. Will lead around the turn and remains the one to beat.
8 - Viscount: Surround, Red Anchor and Octagonal are the only three-year-olds to win this race in the last 25 years. Each was a freak, a brilliant horse. Viscount isn't within lengths of any of those three. Can't win.
My market (112%):
7-4 Sunline
11-4 Northerly
9-2 Silvano
9-1 Universal Prince
12-1 Viscount
16-1 Caitano
33-1 Referal
50-1 King Keitel
1 - Sunline, 2 - Northerly, 3 - Silvano