List Mgmt. Who's in the gun in 2020?

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Apart from the emerging stars of the club like Naughton, Bailey Smith, Rhylee West and hopefully Cody Weightman, there are a good number of players to watch in 2020. That's because they'll be battling for their future. It could get very competitive ...

After a fairly conservative turnover of our list in 2019 we are likely to have a sizeable cleanout in 2020.

With a father-son candidate (MacPherson) and two likely NGA prospects (Ugle-Hagan and Raak) we could need lots of draft points. So we might be active in trading players or future picks for 2020 picks to hoard some extra points in case of early bids. However you can only hoard points (draft picks) if you have corresponding list vacancies. That might force us to create 5 or more vacancies for draft day. On top of this we typically bring in a player or two by way of a trade each year.

Along with possible retirements it could mean we’ll be losing 9-10 players from our list. IMO the way Sam Power has organised contract extensions is consistent with this.

Retirements

Two or three players are approaching the end of their AFL career and I’d expect one of those to retire (Dickson). The other main possibility is Suckling but so far he looks in no danger of being cut as he’s an automatic MC selection when fit. Unless his form plummets in 2020 he’ll only retire (or move on to NFL) if it suits him. There’s always the chance of an early retirement due to injury or mental issues too, like Liam Picken and Tom Boyd did in 2019.

Trades

A vacancy could also occur if a contracted player is traded to another club. These are pretty hard to anticipate (think Stringer and Dahlhaus) but we may well be interested in offers for certain players if we think there’s a need to accumulate draft points. Toby McLean has been talked about here due to a slight dip in form in 2019 but he’s contracted until 2022. It could be someone else quite unexpected. Someone we’d agree to let go because we can get good draft picks for him and we already have cover for the role he plays, e.g. a Caleb Daniel or an Ed Richards. They are only by way of example but I reckon they’d have plenty of suitors willing to cough up good picks.

Net Result

Trades in may offset trades out, meaning they would create no new vacancies on the list. Retirements may create only 1-2 vacancies. This means we could be looking at cutting 5-6 players. A turnover of around ten players on an AFL list is by no means out of the ordinary.

So who’s in the gun?

The following are the players I reckon are playing for their AFL career in 2020. Nearly all of them have a contract expiring in 2020. Some of course are rookies so cutting them won’t create a new spot on the senior list. Nevertheless creating a rookie vacancy or two can allow us to cut a senior player and get him back in as a rookie.

The club may not have anyone's papers stamped just yet. It is probably happy for these players to tussle among themselves to work out who stays and who goes. Fierce competition for spots is a good thing. For the health of the list we want only the best and most determined to survive.
  • Lin Jong – his career has been dogged by injury and he didn’t get to play at AFL level in 2019. He’s never really locked away a place in the seniors and he turns 27 next year. He may be loyal and well-liked by his teammates but it’s last chance saloon for Lin in 2020.
  • Ryan Gardner (R) – he was a surprise call-up in the mid-season draft and showed very little as a forward. However even his future as a defender looks tenuous with the arrival of Alex Keath who should be a walk-up start, and the improved form of Lewis Young late in the season. He needs to find one position in the VFL – probably defence – and really show some consistent form otherwise he’s in real danger.
  • Jordon Sweet (R) – given Bevo has shown repeatedly that he doesn’t like playing two rucks, Sweet’s opportunities will be limited. Maybe even SFA. He might get his chance if English is injured but Bevo has been happy to use makeshift rucks instead of career ruckman in the past (e.g. Tom Campbell didn’t get a look in despite good VFL form). Sweet showed he can win a lot taps in his first VFL season but he doesn’t do enough around the ground. If he improves significantly in that area I’d say he has a future.
  • Lachie Young (R) – he might have been close to being upgraded this year but it didn't happen and he is still a rookie for 2020. He showed a bit of dash and spirit in his 6 games so I doubt he’d be cut. Just needs to continue with his natural improvement. He’s still only 20.
  • Roarke Smith (R) – has had heaps of chances but he must have impressed someone at VUWO because they’ve retained him through two ACL rehabs. Has only played 17 games since first coming to VUWO in season 2015. This is his 6th year. Surely this is his make or break season?
  • Brad Lynch (R) – finished 2018 with an unexpected flourish in the seniors but did nothing in 2019. His strengths are pace and good disposal and they are always going to be in demand, but unfortunately he goes missing too often. Will be lucky to survive the cut but at least he starts 2020 on the same footing as all the others.
  • Bailey Williams - he's contracted until 2021 but couldn't get a look-in during 2019 so some here were thinking he might leave. In 2018 he had the fifth highest average votes per game in the Sutton Medal so he has shown he can perform at the level. Not sure why it didn't work out for him this year ... is it a confidence thing? Could go either way - wouldn't surprise me if he secured a regular spot in 2020, but could just as easily be his last year at the Dogs. Perhaps he would still command some trade value if we did decide to offload him.
  • Will Hayes – I don’t really think he’s in much danger. They picked him for this year's elimination final much to the surprise of many on this board. Runs hard and has a great work ethic. I only listed him because he’s yet to sign a contract extension beyond 2020. Maybe Sam Power wants to be sure he’ll back up his debut season before putting the extension offer to him.
  • Fergus Greene – has plenty of admirers here. He has footy smarts and can find the goals but he could help his cause by adding a bit of muscle to his light frame. After some promising form in 2018 this last season was a wipeout for him due to injury. He’s already 22 so he’ll need to make his mark soon. The breakout season of Bailey Dale and the arrival of other forward prospects like Lloyd, West and Weightman are making it harder for him.
  • Tory Dickson – As a premiership hero I doubt he’ll ever be delisted. More likely they will convince him it’s time to retire. He turns 33 in September so this is probably his final year.
  • Callum Porter – his one year extension raised a few eyebrows but can probably be explained by Sam Power wanting the list vacancies to occur next year, not this one. Luckily for Porter, that means he gets one more year to prove he can make it. It seems unlikely but he was starting to show a bit in the VFL and was even named AFL emergency once or twice, so who knows?
  • Billy Gowers – he lost his way in 2019 after winning the goal kicking award in his first year. He was a “coach’s pick” in the 2017 rookie draft (supposedly the reason Dalrymple left) so Bevo was always going to be keen to persevere. However there are plenty vying for the small to medium forward role so Gowers will need to watch out. Still has a few credits left, I’d say.
  • Ben Cavarra – a third round draft pick in 2018 he was tipped as the one most likely to fill the role of creative small forward in the senior side. However he missed most of 2019 with injury ... and opportunity can be fleeting. Weightman is now the heir apparent for that role. He first needs to get injury free and stay that way. If he does that he’ll get a chance to show his wares. If he has another injury-marred season then he could be in trouble.
  • Laitham Vandermeer – a surprise pick in the 30s as a 19yo in the 2018 draft. Has pace to burn but was injured a bit in 2019. Has impressed some VFL watchers but seems like he still has a fair way to go before being considered at AFL level. Really needs to go up a level in 2020.
  • Jackson Trengove – seeing we chased him to cross over from Port it’s unlikely we’d de-list him, especially as he is such a strong team man. However he is only marginal best 22, if that, and the arrival of talls like Keath and Bruce will make it harder. His ability as a back-up ruck will stand him in good stead. He turns 30 at the end of 2020 which is when his current contract expires (or does he have a one-year option on that?) I’d expect him to still be on the list in 2021. Not sure about 2022.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised to see minimal list changes, despite needing the points. If we cut seven players and all of our draft picks are used for points we're drafting three 18 year olds and 4 rookies, which might not be enough depth for a finals side considering we already have a lot of players who aren't ready to come in and play a consistent role yet (Khamis, Vandermeer, Sweet, Greene, La. Young, Butler and Garcia). Probably easier to go into defect and back ourselves to be well enough that we don't need to draft heavily in 2021.

I think Lynch, Porter, Suckling and Dickson will be the ones out of contract to go, and someone in contract will want a trade for more opportunity. Jong will get a few games and earn a year contract is my prediction.
 
I would not put it as dramatically as "Who's in the gun in 2020 ?", but I would say it's a big year for certain
players with the introduction of a couple of three to four year pillars in Bruce and Keath. So it's a big year
for Trengove, Gardner, Cordy, Williams, Schache, Wallis, Porter, McLean, Jong, Greene, Gowers, Cavarra,
Lynch, R. Smith, Richards, Hayes and Daniel all of them may have to find a fit if as anticipated the new
arrivals slot in to the mystical "Best 22". Obviously we have Dickson and Suckling getting to the end of
their careers and there are injury questions on Liberatore with his knee problems and Wood with his soft
tissue issues. Finding a balance with an eye on who is coming into the club is a fascinating study and has
great potential though potential is nothing without performance as many an ex-girlfriend told me through
my lifetime. Structure is not a familiar beast at the Bulldogs so things will be interesting and no doubt at
times very challenging.
 

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So what you are saying is list management is doing a good job. By my reckoning all of our core squad are locked in to 2021 and beyond except Crozier. Our five senior citizens will all be on one year contracts, Dickson, Suckling, Wood, Lloyd and Trengove (he'll be 30 when his current contract ends).
Two not in my core who are contracted to 2021 are Williams and Vandermeer.

The only thing I'd bank on at this stage is, this will be Dicko's last year.

Perhaps it would be more fun to play - Which fringe player cracks the 22?

I'm interested to see what Cavarra can do at AFL level - it would be nice to have some genuine forwards competing for spots.
 
We sound a bit like Carlton ejaculating about Weightman and Smith.

I'd say Jong and Wallis are "in the gun"
We should have a solid year,the list seems good.
 
I would not put it as dramatically as "Who's in the gun in 2020 ?", but I would say it's a big year for certain
players with the introduction of a couple of three to four year pillars in Bruce and Keath. So it's a big year
for Trengove, Gardner, Cordy, Williams, Schache, Wallis, Porter, McLean, Jong, Greene, Gowers, Cavarra,
Lynch, R. Smith, Richards, Hayes and Daniel all of them may have to find a fit if as anticipated the new
arrivals slot in to the mystical "Best 22". Obviously we have Dickson and Suckling getting to the end of
their careers and there are injury questions on Liberatore with his knee problems and Wood with his soft
tissue issues. Finding a balance with an eye on who is coming into the club is a fascinating study and has
great potential though potential is nothing without performance as many an ex-girlfriend told me through
my lifetime. Structure is not a familiar beast at the Bulldogs so things will be interesting and no doubt at
times very challenging.
I can agree with all the names mentioned except Daniel.
Whether we like it or not,Bev rates him and as long as Bevs coach Daniel is going to have a major role in us going forward.
Daniel is in no gun from what I see regarding the match committee.
 
Is the player or club "in the gun" regarding McLean?
It will be interesting what role the MC assign and what he might think.
A really solid footballer who I rate,but I fear he may blossom at another club.
 
Apart from the emerging stars of the club like Naughton, Bailey Smith, Rhylee West and hopefully Cody Weightman, there are a good number of players to watch in 2020. That's because they'll be battling for their future. It could get very competitive ...

After a fairly conservative turnover of our list in 2019 we are likely to have a sizeable cleanout in 2020.

With a father-son candidate (MacPherson) and two likely NGA prospects (Ugle-Hagan and Raak) we could need lots of draft points. So we might be active in trading players or future picks for 2020 picks to hoard some extra points in case of early bids. However you can only hoard points (draft picks) if you have corresponding list vacancies. That might force us to create 5 or more vacancies for draft day. On top of this we typically bring in a player or two by way of a trade each year.

Along with possible retirements it could mean we’ll be losing 9-10 players from our list. IMO the way Sam Power has organised contract extensions is consistent with this.

Retirements

Two or three players are approaching the end of their AFL career and I’d expect one of those to retire (Dickson). The other main possibility is Suckling but so far he looks in no danger of being cut as he’s an automatic MC selection when fit. Unless his form plummets in 2020 he’ll only retire (or move on to NFL) if it suits him. There’s always the chance of an early retirement due to injury or mental issues too, like Liam Picken and Tom Boyd did in 2019.

Trades

A vacancy could also occur if a contracted player is traded to another club. These are pretty hard to anticipate (think Stringer and Dahlhaus) but we may well be interested in offers for certain players if we think there’s a need to accumulate draft points. Toby McLean has been talked about here due to a slight dip in form in 2019 but he’s contracted until 2022. It could be someone else quite unexpected. Someone we’d agree to let go because we can get good draft picks for him and we already have cover for the role he plays, e.g. a Caleb Daniel or an Ed Richards. They are only by way of example but I reckon they’d have plenty of suitors willing to cough up good picks.

Net Result

Trades in may offset trades out, meaning they would create no new vacancies on the list. Retirements may create only 1-2 vacancies. This means we could be looking at cutting 5-6 players. A turnover of around ten players on an AFL list is by no means out of the ordinary.

So who’s in the gun?

The following are the players I reckon are playing for their AFL career in 2020. Nearly all of them have a contract expiring in 2020. Some of course are rookies so cutting them won’t create a new spot on the senior list. Nevertheless creating a rookie vacancy or two can allow us to cut a senior player and get him back in as a rookie.

The club may not have anyone's papers stamped just yet. It is probably happy for these players to tussle among themselves to work out who stays and who goes. Fierce competition for spots is a good thing. For the health of the list we want only the best and most determined to survive.
  • Lin Jong – his career has been dogged by injury and he didn’t get to play at AFL level in 2019. He’s never really locked away a place in the seniors and he turns 27 next year. He may be loyal and well-liked by his teammates but it’s last chance saloon for Lin in 2020.
  • Ryan Gardner (R) – he was a surprise call-up in the mid-season draft and showed very little as a forward. However even his future as a defender looks tenuous with the arrival of Alex Keath who should be a walk-up start, and the improved form of Lewis Young late in the season. He needs to find one position in the VFL – probably defence – and really show some consistent form otherwise he’s in real danger.
  • Jordon Sweet (R) – given Bevo has shown repeatedly that he doesn’t like playing two rucks, Sweet’s opportunities will be limited. Maybe even SFA. He might get his chance if English is injured but Bevo has been happy to use makeshift rucks instead of career ruckman in the past (e.g. Tom Campbell didn’t get a look in despite good VFL form). Sweet showed he can win a lot taps in his first VFL season but he doesn’t do enough around the ground. If he improves significantly in that area I’d say he has a future.
  • Lachie Young (R) – he might have been close to being upgraded this year but it didn't happen and he is still a rookie for 2020. He showed a bit of dash and spirit in his 6 games so I doubt he’d be cut. Just needs to continue with his natural improvement. He’s still only 20.
  • Roarke Smith (R) – has had heaps of chances but he must have impressed someone at VUWO because they’ve retained him through two ACL rehabs. Has only played 17 games since first coming to VUWO in season 2015. This is his 6th year. Surely this is his make or break season?
  • Brad Lynch (R) – finished 2018 with an unexpected flourish in the seniors but did nothing in 2019. His strengths are pace and good disposal and they are always going to be in demand, but unfortunately he goes missing too often. Will be lucky to survive the cut but at least he starts 2020 on the same footing as all the others.
  • Bailey Williams - he's contracted until 2021 but couldn't get a look-in during 2019 so some here were thinking he might leave. In 2018 he had the fifth highest average votes per game in the Sutton Medal so he has shown he can perform at the level. Not sure why it didn't work out for him this year ... is it a confidence thing? Could go either way - wouldn't surprise me if he secured a regular spot in 2020, but could just as easily be his last year at the Dogs. Perhaps he would still command some trade value if we did decide to offload him.
  • Will Hayes – I don’t really think he’s in much danger. They picked him for this year's elimination final much to the surprise of many on this board. Runs hard and has a great work ethic. I only listed him because he’s yet to sign a contract extension beyond 2020. Maybe Sam Power wants to be sure he’ll back up his debut season before putting the extension offer to him.
  • Fergus Greene – has plenty of admirers here. He has footy smarts and can find the goals but he could help his cause by adding a bit of muscle to his light frame. After some promising form in 2018 this last season was a wipeout for him due to injury. He’s already 22 so he’ll need to make his mark soon. The breakout season of Bailey Dale and the arrival of other forward prospects like Lloyd, West and Weightman are making it harder for him.
  • Tory Dickson – As a premiership hero I doubt he’ll ever be delisted. More likely they will convince him it’s time to retire. He turns 33 in September so this is probably his final year.
  • Callum Porter – his one year extension raised a few eyebrows but can probably be explained by Sam Power wanting the list vacancies to occur next year, not this one. Luckily for Porter, that means he gets one more year to prove he can make it. It seems unlikely but he was starting to show a bit in the VFL and was even named AFL emergency once or twice, so who knows?
  • Billy Gowers – he lost his way in 2019 after winning the goal kicking award in his first year. He was a “coach’s pick” in the 2017 rookie draft (supposedly the reason Dalrymple left) so Bevo was always going to be keen to persevere. However there are plenty vying for the small to medium forward role so Gowers will need to watch out. Still has a few credits left, I’d say.
  • Ben Cavarra – a third round draft pick in 2018 he was tipped as the one most likely to fill the role of creative small forward in the senior side. However he missed most of 2019 with injury ... and opportunity can be fleeting. Weightman is now the heir apparent for that role. He first needs to get injury free and stay that way. If he does that he’ll get a chance to show his wares. If he has another injury-marred season then he could be in trouble.
  • Laitham Vandermeer – a surprise pick in the 30s as a 19yo in the 2018 draft. Has pace to burn but was injured a bit in 2019. Has impressed some VFL watchers but seems like he still has a fair way to go before being considered at AFL level. Really needs to go up a level in 2020.
  • Jackson Trengove – seeing we chased him to cross over from Port it’s unlikely we’d de-list him, especially as he is such a strong team man. However he is only marginal best 22, if that, and the arrival of talls like Keath and Bruce will make it harder. His ability as a back-up ruck will stand him in good stead. He turns 30 at the end of 2020 which is when his current contract expires (or does he have a one-year option on that?) I’d expect him to still be on the list in 2021. Not sure about 2022.
A really solid post.
This will be Dicksons last year..a really good player who I rate (all things considered) as one of the greatest players to have ever represented our club.
 
So what you are saying is list management is doing a good job.
Yes, I think they have done a very sound job so far.
Perhaps it would be more fun to play - Which fringe player cracks the 22?
This is a good point. Someone steps up every year, either from obscurity (eg Gowers in 2018) or to a new level (e.g. Dunkley and Dale in 2019).

My pick for 2020 would be Cavarra or Lachie Young from the 15 listed above.
 
Yes, I think they have done a very sound job so far.

This is a good point. Someone steps up every year, either from obscurity (eg Gowers in 2018) or to a new level (e.g. Dunkley and Dale in 2019).

My pick for 2020 would be Cavarra or Lachie Young from the 15 listed above.
I'm tipping Greene.
People can talk about Naughton and Bruce,but I think Dale and Greene on the flanks are going to have a bigger impact on our season.
 
I can agree with all the names mentioned except Daniel.
Whether we like it or not,Bev rates him and as long as Bevs coach Daniel is going to have a major role in us going forward.
Daniel is in no gun from what I see regarding the match committee.
That may have been true prior to his TATTOOS, but the "Butterfly" may have to pay a price for toughness. ;)
 

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I suspect McLean, Wallis, or both may be traded at the end of the season.
Wallis is contracted until the end of 2021. Bevo described him as the heart and soul of the club and loves him. McLean signed a contract extension for 3 years and is tied up until the end of 2022. I will be amazed if either of them got traded at the end of this season.
 
Not sure Bev really cares about tattoos or childish comments.
If you give the sarcasm meter a slight tap with a hammer it should work properly again, yes Bevo loves Caleb
Daniel, but we did win without him at times last year which would not have gone unnoticed. Bevo loves to win
as well, if you put two structural players in who comes out ? Does Naughton go back once Ugle-Hagan comes
in ? Does the AFL tweak the draft rules too put more players in the open draft pool ?

Like it or not you are only as good as your last game and the Giants provided a great template for the rest of
the competition in terms of humbling the Bulldogs and negating their strengths in what was the Giants only
volume win for the finals series, the proverbial false favourite.
 
If you give the sarcasm meter a slight tap with a hammer it should work properly again, yes Bevo loves Caleb
Daniel, but we did win without him at times last year which would not have gone unnoticed. Bevo loves to win
as well, if you put two structural players in who comes out ? Does Naughton go back once Ugle-Hagan comes
in ? Does the AFL tweak the draft rules too put more players in the open draft pool ?

Like it or not you are only as good as your last game and the Giants provided a great template for the rest of
the competition in terms of humbling the Bulldogs and negating their strengths in what was the Giants only
volume win for the finals series, the proverbial false favourite.

I think Daniel would've been very helpful that last game. Duryea does a lot of defensive things better but his rebounds were just kicks down the line ending up in an intercept or a stoppage. We needed someone with some creativity.
 
If you give the sarcasm meter a slight tap with a hammer it should work properly again, yes Bevo loves Caleb
Daniel, but we did win without him at times last year which would not have gone unnoticed. Bevo loves to win
as well, if you put two structural players in who comes out ? Does Naughton go back once Ugle-Hagan comes
in ? Does the AFL tweak the draft rules too put more players in the open draft pool ?

Like it or not you are only as good as your last game and the Giants provided a great template for the rest of
the competition in terms of humbling the Bulldogs and negating their strengths in what was the Giants only
volume win for the finals series, the proverbial false favourite.
Just calling it as I see it.
I don't think the MC is going to go off Daniel because of a game we lost that he didn't even play in,probably the opposite.

I'd actually be surprised if the MC go off one game when they have a whole season to analyse.
 
I think Daniel would've been very helpful that last game. Duryea does a lot of defensive things better but his rebounds were just kicks down the line ending up in an intercept or a stoppage. We needed someone with some creativity.
With 319 Disposals and 15 Shots on goal, we needed more than just Daniel.

Disposal Ladder (2019) Season:

301-320: 1 x Time for 1 x Loss.
321-340: None.
341-360: 3 x Times for 1 x Loss, 2 x Wins.
361-380: 7 x Times for 4 x Loss, 3 x Wins.
381-400: 4 x Times for 3 x Loss, 1 x Wins.
401-420: 3 x Times for 3 x Wins.
421-440: 3 x Times for 1 x Loss, 2 x Wins.
441-460: 2 x Times for 1 x Loss, 1 x Wins.

As usual I will leave off who the opponent was which is pretty useful information needless to say we are a better
team when we top 400 Disposals. No link we stink.
 
Just calling it as I see it.
I don't think the MC is going to go off Daniel because of a game we lost that he didn't even play in,probably the opposite.

I'd actually be surprised if the MC go off one game when they have a whole season to analyse.
Caleb Daniel (Top Five Statistical Games):

9 Times for 2 x Wins and 7 x Losses.

Why do we lose when he plays well ?
 
With 319 Disposals and 15 Shots on goal, we needed more than just Daniel.

Disposal Ladder (2019) Season:

301-320: 1 x Time for 1 x Loss.
321-340: None.
341-360: 3 x Times for 1 x Loss, 2 x Wins.
361-380: 7 x Times for 4 x Loss, 3 x Wins.
381-400: 4 x Times for 3 x Loss, 1 x Wins.
401-420: 3 x Times for 3 x Wins.
421-440: 3 x Times for 1 x Loss, 2 x Wins.
441-460: 2 x Times for 1 x Loss, 1 x Wins.

As usual I will leave off who the opponent was which is pretty useful information needless to say we are a better
team when we top 400 Disposals. No link we stink.
What a shock...Yojimbo has pulled out stats to make out our supporters and MC,who actually watch games,are stupid and inferior to him because he's a stats guy.
 
What a shock...Yojimbo has pulled out stats to make out our supporters and MC,who actually watch games,are stupid and inferior to him because he's a stats guy.
No they are our possession numbers and the wins and losses that result from our possessions, do you think
teams train to lose ? Of course they don't, but it's good if they take the time to understand why.
 

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