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Apart from the emerging stars of the club like Naughton, Bailey Smith, Rhylee West and hopefully Cody Weightman, there are a good number of players to watch in 2020. That's because they'll be battling for their future. It could get very competitive ...
After a fairly conservative turnover of our list in 2019 we are likely to have a sizeable cleanout in 2020.
With a father-son candidate (MacPherson) and two likely NGA prospects (Ugle-Hagan and Raak) we could need lots of draft points. So we might be active in trading players or future picks for 2020 picks to hoard some extra points in case of early bids. However you can only hoard points (draft picks) if you have corresponding list vacancies. That might force us to create 5 or more vacancies for draft day. On top of this we typically bring in a player or two by way of a trade each year.
Along with possible retirements it could mean we’ll be losing 9-10 players from our list. IMO the way Sam Power has organised contract extensions is consistent with this.
Retirements
Two or three players are approaching the end of their AFL career and I’d expect one of those to retire (Dickson). The other main possibility is Suckling but so far he looks in no danger of being cut as he’s an automatic MC selection when fit. Unless his form plummets in 2020 he’ll only retire (or move on to NFL) if it suits him. There’s always the chance of an early retirement due to injury or mental issues too, like Liam Picken and Tom Boyd did in 2019.
Trades
A vacancy could also occur if a contracted player is traded to another club. These are pretty hard to anticipate (think Stringer and Dahlhaus) but we may well be interested in offers for certain players if we think there’s a need to accumulate draft points. Toby McLean has been talked about here due to a slight dip in form in 2019 but he’s contracted until 2022. It could be someone else quite unexpected. Someone we’d agree to let go because we can get good draft picks for him and we already have cover for the role he plays, e.g. a Caleb Daniel or an Ed Richards. They are only by way of example but I reckon they’d have plenty of suitors willing to cough up good picks.
Net Result
Trades in may offset trades out, meaning they would create no new vacancies on the list. Retirements may create only 1-2 vacancies. This means we could be looking at cutting 5-6 players. A turnover of around ten players on an AFL list is by no means out of the ordinary.
So who’s in the gun?
The following are the players I reckon are playing for their AFL career in 2020. Nearly all of them have a contract expiring in 2020. Some of course are rookies so cutting them won’t create a new spot on the senior list. Nevertheless creating a rookie vacancy or two can allow us to cut a senior player and get him back in as a rookie.
The club may not have anyone's papers stamped just yet. It is probably happy for these players to tussle among themselves to work out who stays and who goes. Fierce competition for spots is a good thing. For the health of the list we want only the best and most determined to survive.
After a fairly conservative turnover of our list in 2019 we are likely to have a sizeable cleanout in 2020.
With a father-son candidate (MacPherson) and two likely NGA prospects (Ugle-Hagan and Raak) we could need lots of draft points. So we might be active in trading players or future picks for 2020 picks to hoard some extra points in case of early bids. However you can only hoard points (draft picks) if you have corresponding list vacancies. That might force us to create 5 or more vacancies for draft day. On top of this we typically bring in a player or two by way of a trade each year.
Along with possible retirements it could mean we’ll be losing 9-10 players from our list. IMO the way Sam Power has organised contract extensions is consistent with this.
Retirements
Two or three players are approaching the end of their AFL career and I’d expect one of those to retire (Dickson). The other main possibility is Suckling but so far he looks in no danger of being cut as he’s an automatic MC selection when fit. Unless his form plummets in 2020 he’ll only retire (or move on to NFL) if it suits him. There’s always the chance of an early retirement due to injury or mental issues too, like Liam Picken and Tom Boyd did in 2019.
Trades
A vacancy could also occur if a contracted player is traded to another club. These are pretty hard to anticipate (think Stringer and Dahlhaus) but we may well be interested in offers for certain players if we think there’s a need to accumulate draft points. Toby McLean has been talked about here due to a slight dip in form in 2019 but he’s contracted until 2022. It could be someone else quite unexpected. Someone we’d agree to let go because we can get good draft picks for him and we already have cover for the role he plays, e.g. a Caleb Daniel or an Ed Richards. They are only by way of example but I reckon they’d have plenty of suitors willing to cough up good picks.
Net Result
Trades in may offset trades out, meaning they would create no new vacancies on the list. Retirements may create only 1-2 vacancies. This means we could be looking at cutting 5-6 players. A turnover of around ten players on an AFL list is by no means out of the ordinary.
So who’s in the gun?
The following are the players I reckon are playing for their AFL career in 2020. Nearly all of them have a contract expiring in 2020. Some of course are rookies so cutting them won’t create a new spot on the senior list. Nevertheless creating a rookie vacancy or two can allow us to cut a senior player and get him back in as a rookie.
The club may not have anyone's papers stamped just yet. It is probably happy for these players to tussle among themselves to work out who stays and who goes. Fierce competition for spots is a good thing. For the health of the list we want only the best and most determined to survive.
- Lin Jong – his career has been dogged by injury and he didn’t get to play at AFL level in 2019. He’s never really locked away a place in the seniors and he turns 27 next year. He may be loyal and well-liked by his teammates but it’s last chance saloon for Lin in 2020.
- Ryan Gardner (R) – he was a surprise call-up in the mid-season draft and showed very little as a forward. However even his future as a defender looks tenuous with the arrival of Alex Keath who should be a walk-up start, and the improved form of Lewis Young late in the season. He needs to find one position in the VFL – probably defence – and really show some consistent form otherwise he’s in real danger.
- Jordon Sweet (R) – given Bevo has shown repeatedly that he doesn’t like playing two rucks, Sweet’s opportunities will be limited. Maybe even SFA. He might get his chance if English is injured but Bevo has been happy to use makeshift rucks instead of career ruckman in the past (e.g. Tom Campbell didn’t get a look in despite good VFL form). Sweet showed he can win a lot taps in his first VFL season but he doesn’t do enough around the ground. If he improves significantly in that area I’d say he has a future.
- Lachie Young (R) – he might have been close to being upgraded this year but it didn't happen and he is still a rookie for 2020. He showed a bit of dash and spirit in his 6 games so I doubt he’d be cut. Just needs to continue with his natural improvement. He’s still only 20.
- Roarke Smith (R) – has had heaps of chances but he must have impressed someone at VUWO because they’ve retained him through two ACL rehabs. Has only played 17 games since first coming to VUWO in season 2015. This is his 6th year. Surely this is his make or break season?
- Brad Lynch (R) – finished 2018 with an unexpected flourish in the seniors but did nothing in 2019. His strengths are pace and good disposal and they are always going to be in demand, but unfortunately he goes missing too often. Will be lucky to survive the cut but at least he starts 2020 on the same footing as all the others.
- Bailey Williams - he's contracted until 2021 but couldn't get a look-in during 2019 so some here were thinking he might leave. In 2018 he had the fifth highest average votes per game in the Sutton Medal so he has shown he can perform at the level. Not sure why it didn't work out for him this year ... is it a confidence thing? Could go either way - wouldn't surprise me if he secured a regular spot in 2020, but could just as easily be his last year at the Dogs. Perhaps he would still command some trade value if we did decide to offload him.
- Will Hayes – I don’t really think he’s in much danger. They picked him for this year's elimination final much to the surprise of many on this board. Runs hard and has a great work ethic. I only listed him because he’s yet to sign a contract extension beyond 2020. Maybe Sam Power wants to be sure he’ll back up his debut season before putting the extension offer to him.
- Fergus Greene – has plenty of admirers here. He has footy smarts and can find the goals but he could help his cause by adding a bit of muscle to his light frame. After some promising form in 2018 this last season was a wipeout for him due to injury. He’s already 22 so he’ll need to make his mark soon. The breakout season of Bailey Dale and the arrival of other forward prospects like Lloyd, West and Weightman are making it harder for him.
- Tory Dickson – As a premiership hero I doubt he’ll ever be delisted. More likely they will convince him it’s time to retire. He turns 33 in September so this is probably his final year.
- Callum Porter – his one year extension raised a few eyebrows but can probably be explained by Sam Power wanting the list vacancies to occur next year, not this one. Luckily for Porter, that means he gets one more year to prove he can make it. It seems unlikely but he was starting to show a bit in the VFL and was even named AFL emergency once or twice, so who knows?
- Billy Gowers – he lost his way in 2019 after winning the goal kicking award in his first year. He was a “coach’s pick” in the 2017 rookie draft (supposedly the reason Dalrymple left) so Bevo was always going to be keen to persevere. However there are plenty vying for the small to medium forward role so Gowers will need to watch out. Still has a few credits left, I’d say.
- Ben Cavarra – a third round draft pick in 2018 he was tipped as the one most likely to fill the role of creative small forward in the senior side. However he missed most of 2019 with injury ... and opportunity can be fleeting. Weightman is now the heir apparent for that role. He first needs to get injury free and stay that way. If he does that he’ll get a chance to show his wares. If he has another injury-marred season then he could be in trouble.
- Laitham Vandermeer – a surprise pick in the 30s as a 19yo in the 2018 draft. Has pace to burn but was injured a bit in 2019. Has impressed some VFL watchers but seems like he still has a fair way to go before being considered at AFL level. Really needs to go up a level in 2020.
- Jackson Trengove – seeing we chased him to cross over from Port it’s unlikely we’d de-list him, especially as he is such a strong team man. However he is only marginal best 22, if that, and the arrival of talls like Keath and Bruce will make it harder. His ability as a back-up ruck will stand him in good stead. He turns 30 at the end of 2020 which is when his current contract expires (or does he have a one-year option on that?) I’d expect him to still be on the list in 2021. Not sure about 2022.
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